Investor’s Edge: 07/01/2015
WHO IS SAVING WHO?
Most everyone is forgetting the most important laws of lending.
When you owe small amounts, it is your problem. When you owe gargantuan amounts that will never be paid back, it is the lender’s problem! So who is saving who?
The simple fact is that this is a problem for the lenders. It is a sheer economic impossibility for Greece to pay back this money but just like the U.S. debt, just let it keep growing. But eventually, debt implodes. The simple fact is that this issue was manageable…years ago. Not any more. Eventually, there will be massive write-offs. What number? Don’t know. What point? Don’t know! But the longer they let this go and the larger they let this grow, the worse it will be.
As far as markets, only in a world awash with debt do markets react positively to kicking the debt burden down the road as debt continues to grow. We consider this open an oversold bounce. Major indices had broken only shorter-term support and suspect we just get back to the lower to middle end of the nauseating trading range that has been around for quite a while. But do not forget, we have seen a lot of deterioration and those Transports. Keep the Transports front and center.
More importantly, heading out to Pebble Beach this afternoon for some bucket list golf. Enjoy your holiday weekend.