kaltbaum premarket

To give you an idea of my routine, typically, I will scan all the movers at 330 pm before the market closes.

At night, I will scan everything trading 750,000 shares and higher. On weekends, I will go as low as 500,000. I am looking for breakouts…and moves off the 50 day. Before I scan, I pretty much know what I will find because of my watching of the market. And then there is days like yesterday where I scan at night…and will scan again in the morning just to make sure. Here is the outcome of those scans:

 Growth leaders sat yesterday. I sent you the list. This is good news…as after moves to the upside, it is normal to sit. From yesterday, most all of the nasdaq move was the semis coming off their rear end…just look at the SOX and a few other things. Megacap names like csco,orcl,msft,jnpr,intc also moved. Intc moved on a worsening outlook, telling you that the TECHS were already sold down based on poor numbers.

 Last night, IBM reported crappy sales numbers but as usual, beats the number. They have been playing with numbers forever but analysts just go with it. They would have you believe theat a company that size could have a 3% drop in sales but a 14% earnings growth. Outcome? IBM will account for 45 dow points on the open.

 I did find a few names but again, ASML strong semi…earnings down 38%, sales down 30%….no thanks. MMM breaks above technical resistance with volume…but they report any day…and is a slow boat. SWKS will gap up today…earnings down 8%. Also from yesterday, the down and out VMW,CRM,FFIV contingent helped the market. So…walking into today:

QCOM,IBM,EBAY,SWKS,SCSS gapping up. MLNX gapping up big. MLNX was smoked down to the 50 day before the $27 gap today, This is helping the market gap up but I must also add that a few foreign markets that led turn…are turning the corner to the upside as well as the energy complex here…so much better technicals, much better tone…we just need a few growth names busting out. Keep in mind, market heading into meat of resistance but with the fed priming the pump and printing money. (Do not believe bernanke when he says he is not sure.) With bad news being bought, markets starting to shape up. Ignore the bears that are yelling and screaming about the fundamentals. It is not the news, it si how markets react to the news…and with TECH now being sold out and bought on “bad” numbers, this is good news.



Emails show an investor’s ties to White House officials Valerie Jarrett and Jim Messina. With Romney taking fire, the RNC shoots back with allegations that the White House allowed donors to feed at the green energy trough.

The Republican National Committee is continuing its counterattack on President Barack Obama, releasing emails and videos to bolster Romney’s recent claims that the White House’s efforts to invest in “green energy” amounted to a form of “crony capitalism.”

In one email, Steve Westly, an Obama fundraiser whose company received close to a half billion dollars in green energy funds in 2009, cites his ties to senior Obama advisor Valerie Jarrett, campaign manager Jim Messina, and secretary of energy Steven Chu.


SOURCE: http://www.buzzfeed.com





We are in the midst of earnings season. Here’s what’s going on.

Intel (INTC) missed earnings and lowered guidance. The stock rallied up strongly and led the Semiconductors to its best day in a while as they held very important support at around the 350 area.

Technology stocks have been very week in comparison to other areas of the market. The Semiconductors have also been very week in comparison to other areas of the market. The fact that the bad news has been anticipated and these stocks are rallying off of that bad news is potentially good news.

Remember, bull phases are made up of situations where good news is bought up big time and bad news is ignored and thing still go up.

Bear phases are when bad news is trashed and good news is even sold off.

If companies are missing earnings and lowering guidance and the stocks were hit hard over the past 12 weeks, are being bought up with a fervor, it tells you that the stock has already reflected the bad news.

Another example: IBM with its revenues down year over year is being bought. It’s partially because a lot of these stocks are down a lot and they’re rebounding.

For sure, there’s a ton of areas that are in bad shape and remain under pressure and in bad shape. But the action of the past couple of days relieves a lot of that. But don’t think this is going to be easy. But there’s no doubt in my mind that:

  1. The Fed is printing money now
  2. The Fed knows this is an election year and that they have a job to do.

So my belief system is that, until proven wrong, the market is set to do better. That means, from here, they’re going to have to show me that they want to sell this thing down.

I say that knowing that there a lot more earnings to come out.

But right now the market does not care.

The first thing you to need to look at is the Semiconductor Index (SOX). It’s been dreadful. It went back to an area that held in November and December of 2011 as well as early-June of 2012. Even with Intel lowering numbers, it was bought up like crazy. Why? As they say, “All the news was already in the stocks.”

For now. To be revisited. 


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Amazingly, growth leaders did squat today…but that’s ok because they are sitting tight. Here is the list. EBAY gapping up in AH so maybe will go back on.
AAPL- Setting up well into earnings…but 5th stage base.
ALXN- Pullback mode after breaking out…trading sloppy…but stilll strong.
BIIB- Sits tight while others pull in…blah numbers.
CERN- Holds the 50 day.
DLTR- At 50 day…not thrilled with bearish wedge just above 50 day. A break below and bye-bye. Late stage.
EQIX- held 50 day to the penny on Thursday…acting fine as it rides it up.
EXPE- Breaks 50 day…almost off this list.
MNST- Sitting on 50 day and holds over past couple of days.
PETM- Very strong…didn’t budge.
PRGO- wild action after getting extended. Needs to tighten up.
ROST- Held 50 day on numbers. Late stage group. Acting fine.
SHW- Holds 50 day to the penny Thursday and back in base. Already big move.
TRIP- Holds 50 day to the penny on Friday and bounces strong. Potential big leader.
TJX- Moving into new highs here…but have to watch group. Continues to ascend nicely.
ULTA- Reverses back above 50 day on Thursday and is holding in new base.
V- Held 50 day to the penny on Thursday and back in base after failing breakout. MA is wide and loose.
WFM- still strong…nothing to do. Pulls in quietly.
It is not often we see bad earnings bought…and blah earnings leading. LLY breaks out in the drugs even though earnings down 25% and sales down 5%. I do not even pretend to delve into that area…but will continue to name the names in the defensive areas. IBM gapping up in AH even though sales down 3%…go figure.
Today was the beaten down SOX…which held the 350 level again…off of bad numbers from INTEL. ASML is the strongest name in semis…earnings down 38% and sales down 30%. Not for me. Cloud stocks were strong off of VMW numbers but look where that stock is as well as the rest.
I promise you all the growth names will pop out if this continues…it is always just a matter of time. Amazingly, even after today, I have nothing to add but may do something in morning depending on open. QCOM,IBM,EBAY will help market gap up in morning.



Very important note on the semiconductors, a group I have always put a lot of importance on as they have been a harbinger for the overall market for a very long time.

Chart provided by StockChart.com

Again, the SOX held the 350 area on “supposed” bad news out of Intel. Yesterday, Intel lowered numbers going forward…supposedly a bearish occurrence. But we have seen this story before, where the semis are in a bear phase and only come out of it on the worst of news. The SOX held the 350 area in November and December of last year as well as early June this year. As of this writing, the SOX has a monstrous bid today…up almost 4%, holding that 350 area once again. If the SOX keeps going, expect the market to keep going.

I also want to point out that other weak areas have come off their lows, namely the energy and commodity complex. Again, when the worst areas come off the floor, it usually means the market has put in a floor. Now we get to see if there will be some real “oomph” behind this as the major indices head into massive resistance.  Keep in mind, thousands more companies report in the weeks ahead…where a lot of jello will be moving on the plate.



More Americans went on disability than found jobs over the last three months, according to fresh figures crunched by the Senate Budget Committee. 

Underscoring the extent of the recent slowdown in the economy, the startling numbers show that between April and June, a total of 246,000 people enrolled in the Social Security Disability Insurance program. In the same period, just 225,000 found jobs. 

Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., ranking Republican on the budget panel, said the figures raise concern about the health of the economy as well as the disability insurance program itself. He said that since 2008, a total of 3.6 million Americans have gone on disability — while 1.3 million lost jobs.


SOURCE: http://www.foxnews.com

kaltbaum note on the semis

It is early but had to let you know they are pulling the SEMICONDUCTOR move again. INTC reports horrid numbers…but the group is already way way down. Combine it with the SOX at significant support…and you get a contramove up. If this gets legs, it will indeed help the NASDAQ as the NASDAQ has lagged because of the SOX. It is amazing how things repeat in the market. There is really no play here except to watch and if you are short any of this weak group, to maybe get less short.

kaltbaum notes

It is early but had to let you know they are pulling the SEMICONDUCTOR move again. INTC reports horrid numbers…but the group is already way way down. Combine it with the SOX at significant support…and you get a contramove up. If this gets legs, it will indeed help the NASDAQ as the NASDAQ has lagged because of the SOX. It is amazing how things repeat in the market. There is really no play here except to watch and if you are short any of this weak group, to maybe get less short.

kaltbaum premarket

Futures are down just a bit. INTC coughed one up but is only nominally down. I have seen the semis rally after a big drop when all the bad news is out. Something I am watching as the SOX tries to defend the 350 area which has been defended several times in the past year. If it is taken out, market should be affected. When we cannot even buy off the 50 day, it tells you not much is happening…so we sit. Over the weekend, I listed for you many of the defensive names that are leading the market. Some of those names have earnings down 20% and sales down but are still going up because that is where the big money is flowing. I have no idea how long it lasts but some of the names are trading at 10x earnings…doesn’t take much to make them 12x earnings…thus the moves. Bunch of earnings out but not much movement…VMW up but the stock has been smoked…SBH looks like it will top off earnings. AGU gapping up as the ferts like CF are working off of the droughts. After the close, axp,ebay,ffiv,ibm,qcom,xlnx and others. Just sitting here…for obvious reasons.

kaltbaum email

Within the next week or so, you will be receiving these emails from a central site. Also, a trade blotter will be up at the site.

Strong day early…weak day early…strong day by close…but it is food,drugs,beverages,tobacco,reits,
household products, telcom utilities, utilities that are leading the market. Growth names are simply sitting with some breaking down. I do not know what this ultimately means. I never thought MRK would lead ever again.

Both ULTA and CTRX went below 50 day with ULTA getting back to it. That’s the best that is going on in growth land right now. We can only hope this is not the market going defensive before the dump but the start of something…but until the growth names kick out, we sit.

The most important news…Jeremy Lin going to the Rockets and not the Knicks…