07/30/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/073018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

It was a quiet day in the market because they shut up. They stopped talking today. But unfortunately, you have the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday where they, with breathless anticipation, will announce their next move.

I must tell you my thought process. If they do nothing, the market’s going to get hit. Because they the basically telegraphed that they were going to do something and, of course, that’s printing of money.

Even though the Fed says they don’t print money…that’s all they do because they have no money.

The European Central Back (ECB) is doing something Thursday.

As you know, on Tuesday of last week, the market was down 200. The market was teetering on the ledge. And we’re talking about the ledge of a trading range which is about 5%-6% in range. Then there was a planted story about the Fed’s favorite person about the Fed making a move, which came out around 3:15pm—and the Dow went up 100 points before you can say “Boo.”

Thursday morning, futures were down .3 to .4% of a percent. The head of the ECB announced, “they’re going to do everything possible…”

The Dow gapped up 250 points.

Friday, before the market up opened, they talked again. It wasn’t just the head of the ECB talking, but also France, Germany and Italy. Mid-day Friday, it was announced that they’re looking at bond buying (printing of money) and lowering of rates, among other things. And they got a good squeeze into the close on Friday.

I hate all of this. There is not one thing I like about any of it. Because I am a long-term thinker. I want to worry about what’s going to happy 2 or 3 years down the road. They don’t. They only care about and their legacies on the markets they have screwed up so badly.

So leading into today—just a nice quiet day. I’ll take it.

Now, we try not to rationalize about all this stuff I’m telling you about.

We pay more attention to the market than anything else. But we know what’s going on there. And we know why things happen. So we to keep it in our file manager. And cross our fingers that this will turn out okay in the longer-term, and not by 9:57am tomorrow.

What’s next?

I don’t know.

We’re getting through earnings season. There have been some good ones and there have some disasters. And there’s been some in between.

We’ll have a lot more to say on Wednesday after the man with the most power in this world, Ben Bernanke tells what his next move is.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

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Was the market even open today?
 
Service is in HD and AMZN as of this second. I want service to own MLNX and EXPE…but MLNX is waaaay extended…EXPE just needs a handle or flag. I may just tell you to get a very small position in MLNX because it reminds me of RIMM in Dec 03…potential for powerful gains.
 
CRUS will be put back on leader’s list tomorrow as it gaps up on huge guidance.
 
Also…AAPL so far a gap down and a hold so it’s back in play.

THE ECB GOES TO BERNANKE UNIVERSITY

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In what can only be called a full court press in order to manipulate the markets, members of the ECB yapped it up…promising this, that and the other thing. Of course, this, that and the other thing…means the printing of money. Names like Draghi, Monti, Merkel and even the ultra-socialist Hollande all promised that things would get done…blah blah blah…and markets love it. To give you an idea of how much markets love it, in the 3 pm casino hour on Tuesday, the Dow was down over 200 and quite ugly when a timely article came out stating that the Fed was ready to print again…and of course, 100 points to the upside quickly. HMMMM!Thursday morning, futures were down…Draghi yaps…futures reverse and open the market almost 250 Dow points. Draghi and friends yap Friday lifting the market and to put the whipped cream and cherry on top, midday, they make a quasi announcement of bond buying, rate cuts and all kinds of steroids that haven’t worked in the past…except on the market. Next up is the Dean of bubbles, Big Ben…and memo to Ben, do not disapoint as markets are now expecting.

Technically, just a few changes.

Leading the market continues to be all the defensive areas mentioned in this report including food, drugs, beverages, tobacco, household products, utilities, telcom utilities and reits. It is amazing to watch some companies with 0% growth or down quarters go up in price but that’s what makes a market. I would add that biotech is also showing good strength.

On top of that, the worst areas of the market have come off the floor. When the floor lifts, the market goes higher. This include all the commodity areas…where I am actually seeing some oil names coming to the fore for the first time in many months.

Financials also held support and are teasing a break above resistance. Nothing bad happens if the financials move higher.

The dow and S&P, which were teasing breaks to the downside Tuesday, have now gone topside moving above support. But other major indices have not. In order for the market to continue up, the nasdaq, ndx and russell will need to also move above resistance at 2987,2663 and 820 respectively. 

Recent action has been saw-tooth and a pain in the rear. Too much interference has created gaps to the upside and gaps to the downside. I continue to believe this is not going to be easy but if the world continues to conjure up money, anything is possible. My biggest issue is that this two day move could be nothing more than a news-induced, end of month window dressing festival. Should be another interesting week as we now get Mr. Bubble on Wednesday.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

kaltbaum premarket

S&P futures down a wee bit…NDX up a wee bit as AAPL helping. Going to watch AAPL closely…could be a gap down and hold…like RIMM did in 07 and GOOG as well. It’s where a leader gaps down…sits and then just turns back up. Doesn’t happen often but it has happened.

 
A lot of earnings out this week but not a lot of important names…MA and LNKD report in my space but that’s about it.
 
The big mover will be the fed…and have no clue what the idiots do.
 
No changes from last night.

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First off…leader’s list:
 
 
AMGN-I must admit…should have put in list a while back…but goes on now off reaction to numbers. Just need a place to enter.
AAPL- Gaps down on numbers…but holding 50 day. Nothing to do.
AMZN- Breaks out of weekly cup and handle pattern with volume. Added back to this list.
ALXN- Moves out of short base Wednesday off numbers. Remains strong.
BIIB- Holds 50 day on Wednesday to the penny.
EQIX- Monster move off earnings report. True leader…just need a place to buy.
EXPE- Gaps up Friday but pulls in a wee bit. Needs flag or handle.
EBAY- Back on this list after strong reaction to earnings. May look at on breakout of handle.
HD- Added to this list off another breakout.
MLNX-Moves out again on the daily chart. For me, needs tightening up.
PETM- Just sitting as 50 day catches up.
PRGO- Another leader holds 50 day to the penny.
ROST- Still ascending as 50 day ascends.
SHW- Edging out of short base on no volume. Reversed up on numbers.
SWI-Adding it on awesome reaction but absolutely needs pulling in.
TRIP– Goes bye bye…gaps down on numbers.
TJX- Sitting tight in here. Refuses to give up.
UA-Adding back off reaction to numbers but needs a pullback.
V-Holds 50 day on decent reaction to numbers.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other notes:
 
A couple of weeks ago, I emailed you a list of the defensive area names. I am not a big fan because many have no growth with some having down numbers. But no doubt they are still getting a bid because of defensiveness as well as valuation. For example, noticed an MRK trading at 10x earnings. Here is what I wrote:
 
 
 
I cannot help but mention the continued strength in the reits,drugs,food,beverages,household products, utilities, telco utilities. The new high list on the nyse is just about all reits and utilities. This service typically does not play these areas but had to make note of them. Here is a list for your review from the new high list:
 
MRK,JNJ,VZ,STZ,CTL,T,LLY,CLP,WEC,ACC,RAI,HCN,CL,KMB,DLR,NEE,CCI,CLGX,VTR,EQR,GXP,NNN,
STWD, DPS,WTR,CPT,POR,OHI,DEI,EDR,SKT,EXR.
 
 
 
 
Not on the new high list but with good charts are ABT,BMY,CHD,ECL,HSY,HNZ,KO,LO,MO,MKC,PEP,MO.
 
The issue with all these names is that growth is too slow…meaning they are capped on how far they can go…but I wanted to give you list just in case you like low beta, mega cap stuff with some having decent dividends.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
At 3pm Wednesday, market was breaking…and then the rumors. Market rallied 100 points into the close. Then, ECB Pres yaps…market gaps up 250 points. Before open Friday, he yaps again…market goes up…later in the day…he yaps about printing of money…adding more juice. So for those that think more printing of money will not affect the market, maybe you got the answer…maybe.
 
Here are my real-time thoughts.
 
I hate that the markets move on this crap. One day, would love these idiots to shut up…and see the market go up without any noise. But these days, they don’t and won’t shut up. This week, you get the biggest maniac of all in Bernanke. My other issue is I ask the question: is this just end of month? I know it was strong…but these guys are good at painting the tape.
 
Nevertheless, I try not to rationalize…even though it is not easy…so:
 
AMZN is buyable off the high volume weekly cup and handle breakout. I investigated the numbers and estimates for AMZN numbers start kicking in gear in the next few quarters as they slow down spending. It is 1-2% extended here so no biggie.
 
EBAY looks buyable…but I am going to give it a chance to pull in. if not, will probably tell you to buy the move out.
 
GOOG is coming up right side of base and showing lots of accumulation. Will look for first buy point in handle to buy. Not yet. One other low volume name I am now on is N…just needs a handle. Very strong reaction.

THE SAME MORONS DOING THE SAME MORONIC THINGS ALL OVER AGAIN!

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President Obama has touted General Motors (GM) as a successful example of his administration’s policies. Yet GM’s recovery is built, at least in part, on the increasing use of subprime loans.

The Obama administration in 2009 bailed out GM to the tune of $50 billion as it went into a managed bankruptcy.

Near the end of 2010, GM acquired a new captive lending arm, subprime specialist AmeriCredit. Renamed GM Financial, it has played a significant role in GM’s growth .

Continued

SOURCE: http://news.investors.com

07/27/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/072718.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Quite an interesting two days.

Going into 3:00p Wednesday, the Dow was down 200. The Nasdaq was down big. And then a leak about how the Fed going to announce more printing of money, come this week when they meet. And it reversed the market about halfway.

But the market still looked kind of awful. The market was messy and range-bound, with not much leadership.

Thursday morning, the futures were down Dow 50 or 60 points. And then a gentleman by the name of Mario Draghi, who is the president of the European Central Bank (basically the head of the European Fed) announces that they’re going to do everything in their power…meaning they’re going to print a lot of Euros.

So we gapped up 250 points yesterday, which for me, is a good start. Investor’s Business Daily called it a Through Day (FTD) because the major averages never broke support.

So the futures were flattish this morning.

And Mario Draghi opens his yapper again. Futures immediately go up. And at one point today, we were up about 100.

And then, the news comes out about just what Draghi’s doing to do. The going to cut rates, do a long term refinancing on whatever debt there is, and they’re going to buy bonds.

But you ask, how are they going to do this? How is it possible?

It’s simple. They create money. They are going to the school of Greenspan and Bernanke (especially Bernanke) and they’re creating money out of thin air and adding it to the system to hopefully fix things up. Now in Europe, yields in Italy and Spain have skyrocketed. It’s the same thing that has happened in the U.S. except that our Fed bought 60% of our bonds in the past year. Well, they’re following suit in Europe.

We’re not talking about small amounts of “printing of money.” We’re talking about trillions. Trillions!

And if there’s anything we know, the market loves it.

And the market immediately went from 100 to up 220, settled in…but let me be clear and concise here. I don’t care about yesterday’s 250. I don’t care about today’s 187.

I care about whether growth stocks are showing some real strength, backed by conviction and breaking out of range. And today, we finally got some.

And simply put, let’s hope it sticks.

But 7 out the past 8 FTDs failed. Some miserably.

Now the cynic in me is saying it’s just “more money printing” and it’s “end of the month window dressing.

But the market guy in me says, “Man, there’s some compelling good action here, over the past day, and a gap.

Let’s hope it continues. I don’t have a prediction. I just have a hope. I know where leadership is. I know where strength is. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE WATCH!

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KALTBAUM PREMARKET

The market remains all but impossible to play. Coming into yesterday, things breaking down badly. One word…a repeated word over past months by the ECB Pres and we gap up 200. Futures were blah this morning until, guess what, they said they would be buying Spain and Italian Bonds and now do something with Greece. Real numbers do not matter. Printing money is the only thing that counts.
 
By the book, market had ANOTHER follow through day yesterday. I think 7 out of the past 8 have failed. That does not mean this one fails. So we watch for leadership. Futures now up 3/4% and gaining in past few minutes.
 
HD is in play if it breaks out…and as things show up, we will play. If more things work, we will play more.
 
CERN,KLAC,APKT,FB,SBUX,CSTR,WOOF,VPRT,NTGR,CA,QLGC,NEM,MOH gapping down.
 
N,AMZN,EXPE,AMGN,DECK,TOT gapping up.
 
For the life of me, dont know what market is seeing in AMZN…earnings down 99%…and now misses on sales. But BUY BUY BUY!

kaltbaum email

I am getting a lot of emails about IBD going MARKET IN UPTREND just two days after going MARKET IN CORRECTION. The fact is the nasdaq and s&p never undercut….but the fact also is today was another forced day into month end on bs news. The only thing that matters to me is whether there are things to do. We are seeing some good strength here in names like SWI,EQIX,MLNX,LL and today, a few housing names moved out on numbers. But after that, the tape is a mess. I am more apt to short into this but by my strict rules, no shorting in an uptrend.
 
I expect more upside into month end…just because but not sure how much. But HD has set up well…and could be bought moving above 53.28. After that, need things to tighten up in some other names. The tape remains tough and the tape continues to want to carve up. Today’s gap really screwed the shorts. Hopefully, we can get a trend soon but somehow, I doubt it.