kaltbaum premarket

RHT,BBBY,CELG gapping down. BBBY gapping below support and moving avgs meaning it comes off my potential buy list. Would have not bought it anyhow as earnings were approaching. I typically have no interest in something right before earnings.

Use the 50 day as a stop on AAPL…just below 575ish.

DLTR,CRUS,EBAY look fine…except DLTR got a little frothy on its last move. The service is up big since initiating DLTR at $84 and then buying back recently.

Market is sitting right into 50 day/10 week average here…and is overbought. A pullback/stall would not be bad…unless we start to see heavy selling and breakdowns. Keep in mind, next week is end of month…so maybe get another bump. Just keep in mind, I am in the camp that this aint going to be easy…so keep positions small and take your time.

I change planes in Atlanta and may have some time to write to you from airport right after close. If not, will send something to you in the morning…from beautiful Venice, Italy. 

 

kaltbaum report

I dont know what you call today but think market is short term very overbought so thinking possibly maybe could be a pullback in order. Doing nada here. Will have premarket report…but no report tomorrow night as I will be traveling.

BBBY comes off potential leaders list…gapping down $9 in aftermarket.

Watching ULTA here as it sets up…and hoping ALXN pulls in some more.

COME ON…IT’S ONLY $10 BILLION!

[email_link]

The Obama administration spent $10 billion to create 355 renewable energy jobs per year, according to testimony offered Tuesday before Congress by a Congressional Research Services expert.

Asked by Rep. Cory Gardner (R., Colo.) “how many jobs were created” in 2009 and 2010 under the 1603 renewable energy grant program authorized by the Obama administration, a CRS specialist in public finance admitted that $10 billion was spent to create 3,666 construction jobs over a two-year period–and only 355 jobs per year going forward.

Dr. Molly Sherlock, the CRS specialist, first said the jobs total would depend on the type of job–and differentiated between “induced,” “direct,” and  ”indirect” jobs–before Gardner asked for a straight number.

Continued

SOURCE: http://freebeacon.com

06/20/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/062018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Today I put up a video of Jeremey Grantham being interviewed by Maria Bartiromo. Somebody sent it to me about two years ago, but I never watched it until today.

If there’s anybody I agree with 100%, it is this man. So I put up the 29 minute interview at GaryK.com.

But let me be clear. You’ll be thinking that you’re listening to me. He talks about the Fed and bubbles and the outcomes of bubbles and all that stuff.

The Market

I want to make sure you know that the market is riding the Euro vs. the Dollar right now. Go look at an intraday chart. As the Euro moved, the market moved. And vice versa. Now I’m not sure how long that lasts. But the thought process is that if the Fed continues to print money, it’ll weaken the dollar, which will help asset prices and some of the commodity names in the commodity areas – which got a little bid in last few days.

Now that said, let me give you the good news. The price of oil was whacked again today. $81/barrel, down like $3 and change today. That is great news as we enter more into the summer months for the price at the pump. Of course the price always goes down slower than it goes up.

  • But I’m just letting you know that that’s going to
  • Help airline profits,
  • Cut expenses for the average American, as well as business.

For me, nothing bad happens if oil prices keep coming down. I just want to know when they’re doing to do the investigation on the “speculators” who are making it go down. Those are the same speculators that were supposed to be investigated a couple months back when prices were heading skyward. Oh, that’s right – that fits the template, so no investigation on those speculators.

Anyway, we’re in an uptrend, though I might say today they pulled in a lot of leading names, which for me is good. Some of them got extended. Nothing really stands out for me today.

Most leaders were down today. I’d just would say normal pullbacks. The only bad action is Bed Bath and Beyond after the close.

We will watch how these things act as they pull into support or moving averages.

Remember that the 10-week/50-day moving average is a constant in the market. In bullish phases it contains the pullbacks. In bearish phases, it contains the bounces from going higher.

The Commodities bounced up a little bit. I believe they’re still in a bear market. I can’t say they can’t bounce any farther, but in relation to everything else, they’re almost dead in the water. I would still underweight those areas.

Gold was down today. I do not think Gold is in a new intermediate bull market, even though many of emailed me and said, “Look what it’s done off its lows.” That’s all it’s done. It’s bounced off its lows. For me, that means absolutely nothing to me right now. I wouldn’t underweight Gold and I would not be doing any new buying of Gold. But I think Gold is, longer-term, in a big bull market and once it gets out of whatever its in right now, I expect it to mimic the 1978 to 1980 period where it had a monstrous climatic run, which was the final move in the bull market for Gold back then.

To finish up, the Dow, the S&P, the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq-100, the Russell 2000, the NYSE have all now come up to or a smidge above the decline 50-day moving average. Markets are overbought here. I would love to see a little backing and filling for the next week or so.  

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

OUR REMINDER OF THE FED INSANITY

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Whenever the Fed does their thing, we feel it necessary to remind you of our thoughts:

The Fed said this, that and the other thing today. Blah blah blah…buy more this, buy more that. Blah blah blah…economy slowing down. In seconds, markets tanked and within minutes, markets righted themselves as markets love more printing of money. Right? We are listening to pundits trying to decipher their words. We do not need to decipher. The Fed will continue to print money infinitum. There is no stopping this train. They will print and print and print until someone who understands the repercussions takes over. So do not listen to those that say the Fed will stop. No chance!

Let us be clear about our stance. There is nothing about the Fed we like. We think they are nothing more than interlopers in the markets. We think they are nothing more than manipulators of the markets. The fed cannot affect the economy. They have been trying for ages. We believe the Fed realizes this. There is something the fed can do…and that is affect the markets. They know that printing trillions of fantasy dollars does one thing…juice the markets…and juice they have.

Their thought process is that by manipulating markets higher, people will feel more wealthy. If they feel more wealthy, they are more apt to spend. If they spend more, maybe the economy picks up.

But there is always an ultimate outcome of these moves and it is never good. The outcome is the popping of the market bubble as bubbles create valuations that cannot last. Markets drop from shear overvaluation because of the Fed’s moves. Do we have to remind you of 1999? How about something closer in time…2008? These bubbles were outcomes of assinine Fed policy. We know there is enough blame to go around but we point the finger straight to one place…the Fed and Ben Bernanke. Before him, it was Alan Greenspan. The housing bubble could not have occurred without 0% interest rates and could not have occurred without the Fed taking their eyes off of the lenders…who by the way, is their job to regulate. This combination of easy money and lax oversight did the trick. This is all evidenced by Alan Greenspan with the following genius words:

“Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as sub-prime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. . . . With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. . . Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite  efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in sub-prime mortgage lending . . . fostering constructive innovation that is both responsive to market demand and beneficial to consumers.”

Here is our bigger problem for down the road:

In the past, the Fed mistakenly kept rates too low for too long. BUT…we have never ever seen this type of insanity we are seeing right now. We have seen in the past what low rates can foster…but we have never seen the combination of low rates combined with the printing of trillions of dollars to buy our own debt in order to…hmmm! In order to what? We still have not figured it out yet. Let us repeat the word: TRILLIONS! We are not talking BILLIONS! We are talking TRILLIONS! Not only do these moves make stock valuations go higher…but to us, the bigger bubble is in the bond market. The Fed bought over 60% of U.S. bond issuance last year. On top of that, the Fed has destroyed savers and has forced them into doing things they ordinarily would not…and that is to buy into very risky and leveraged bond funds in place of getting 0% on their savings.

Hopefully, we will be wrong but like asbestos, no one knew how bad it was until everyone became very sick from it. Did we just compare the Fed to asbestos?

Markets can and will react well to the creating of trillions…but it is the ultimate outcomes we worry about. Again, hopefully we will be wrong.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

kaltbaum report on the fed

“OUR REMINDER OF THE FED INSANITY”

By Gary Kaltbaum-June 20,2012
Whenever the Fed does their thing, we feel it necessary to remind you of our thoughts:
The Fed said this, that and the other thing today. Blah blah blah…buy more this, buy more that. Blah blah blah…economy slowing down. In seconds, markets tanked and within minutes, markets righted themselves as markets love more printing of money. Right? We are listening to pundits trying to decipher their words. We do not need to decipher. The Fed will continue to print money infinitum. There is no stopping this train. They will print and print and print until someone who understands the repercussions takes over. So do not listen to those that say the Fed will stop. No chance!
Let us be clear about our stance. There is nothing about the Fed we like. We think they are nothing more than interlopers in the markets. We think they are nothing more than manipulators of the markets. The fed cannot affect the economy. They have been trying for ages. We believe the Fed realizes this. There is something the fed can do…and that is affect the markets. They know that printing trillions of fantasy dollars does one thing…juice the markets…and juice they have.
Their thought process is that by manipulating markets higher, people will feel more wealthy. If they feel more wealthy, they are more apt to spend. If they spend more, maybe the economy picks up.
But there is always an ultimate outcome of these moves and it is never good. The outcome is the popping of the market bubble as bubbles create valuations that cannot last. Markets drop from shear overvaluation because of the Fed’s moves. Do we have to remind you of 1999? How about something closer in time…2008? These bubbles were outcomes of assinine Fed policy. We know there is enough blame to go around but we point the finger straight to one place…the Fed and Ben Bernanke. Before him, it was Alan Greenspan. The housing bubble could not have occurred without 0% interest rates and could not have occurred without the Fed taking their eyes off of the lenders…who by the way, is their job to regulate. This combination of easy money and lax oversight did the trick. This is all evidenced by Alan Greenspan with the following genius words:
“Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as sub-prime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. . . . With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. . . Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in sub-prime mortgage lending . . . fostering constructive innovation that is both responsive to market demand and beneficial to consumers.”
Here is our bigger problem for down the road:
In the past, the Fed mistakenly kept rates too low for too long. BUT…we have never ever seen this type of insanity we are seeing right now. We have seen in the past what low rates can foster…but we have never seen the combination of low rates combined with the printing of trillions of dollars to buy our own debt in order to…hmmm! In order to what? We still have not figured it out yet. Let us repeat the word: TRILLIONS! We are not talking BILLIONS! We are talking TRILLIONS! Not only do these moves make stock valuations go higher…but to us, the bigger bubble is in the bond market. The Fed bought over 60% of U.S. bond issuance last year. On top of that, the Fed has destroyed savers and has forced them into doing things they ordinarily would not…and that is to buy into very risky and leveraged bond funds in place of getting 0% on their savings.
Hopefully, we will be wrong but like asbestos, no one knew how bad it was until everyone became very sick from it. Did we just compare the Fed to asbestos?
Markets can and will react well to the creating of trillions…but it is the ultimate outcomes we worry about. Again, hopefully we will be wrong.

THIS IS A MUST WATCH!

[email_link]

This is Jeremey Grantham in 2010. He echoes everything I believe…that there will be another ultimate outcome of flawed and idiotic policy by one person who has more power than anyone in this world…the power to print trillions of dollars with no oversight.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.businessinsider.com

kaltbaum premarket

Really no reason to do anything this morning. The problem is that at 1230, the market will tank if the fed does not announce another round of printing of money. I say this because this market started going at 305 pm when it was announced central banks would be doing their thing…a direct correlation with currencies and the market. If they do announce another round of printing of money, not sure because the market has already moved on it…and is expecting it. Nevertheless, the market is in a confirmed rally.

I am headed for Europe tom0rrow. There will be no report tomorrow night as I will be traveling.  I am not sure about a premarket report on Friday but am sure will have a report during the day. I will be on cruise through the Greek Islands the next week where internet is plentiful. The only reason you wouldnt get reports is if the internet is not working…but not thinking it is an issue.

I will be back to you later in the afternoon after the maniacal fed does their thing.

CRUS was downgraded but remains strong. DLTR very strong. EBAY followed up yesterday and AAPL just needs to keep the 50 day.

kaltbaum email

See what fed action can do. Just the yapping at 3 pm thursday has done the trick. Today, it was the worst areas with the best day because the euro is going up because the dollar is sinking on fed action…which they had better do something because the market is expecting it tomorrow.

 

LPX and ALXN had good breakouts. LPX blah…I like ALXN…but it moved out too quick. Any pullback into $96 area will be buyable.  Also watching SBH,SWKS,ZUMZ.

06/19/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/061918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Facebook

I received a lot of emails over the past day or so. Many people have been asking about Facebook, as it has been rallying up. Last Wednesday or Thursday, I told you it got defended in that 26 to 28 area. It’s back to 31.85.

For me, I think the market’s doing better, but nothing changes the valuation on Facebook stock. But also told you on my radio show that, regardless of what I think of the value on a company, the stock is going to go wherever it wants to go regardless.

There have been moments in time back in 1999 where companies that didn’t even have any revenues were brought public. And I would laugh at the valuation and they’d double on the IPO and go three more times. That was the “bubble of all bubbles.”

So you never know where things are going to get to in the short run. The market every now and then is full of froth. The market just puts it into the stratosphere. You just never know. 

And underneath the surface of this market, you’ve had a couple like that in the past year. There was a company called Broadvision which went from 7 up to 56. At 56, it had a $250 million market cap with $10 million in revenues and the company loses a lot of money. Of course, the stock is back down to 12. So you just don’t know.

But you understand my point. Facebook is being accumulated right now again and I think that has to do with the market, more than anything. But it’s going to have deal with its first earnings report as a public company and whether or not they’re going to do well off of it. And we’ll leave it at that.

The Market

I believed the market was getting into a little bit of trouble last Thursday. I always tell you that the market is going to do what it wants to do regardless. Then, at 3:05p, it was announced that Ben Bernanke and Central Banks around the globe were ready and the bazookas were out. That turned the market. We got a Follow-Through Day (FTD) on Friday. Strong day yesterday. Another good today. And that’s that.

Now the Fed will make some sort of announcement tomorrow and I’m posing the question to myself, hating the fact that I even have to do that:

What if the Fed does not announce more “Quantitative Easing?” i.e. the printing of money.

The Fed has telegraphed that they will at some point, even though some would say they didn’t. So the market has this real expectation of it. If don’t get it, what happens with the market?

So that’s something we’ll watch closely. I hate…I abhor…that we have to, on a monthly basis, sit around waiting for the decisions of the few.

And may I say, the few are dummies. But they have control of markets and trillions of dollars of fake money.

We’ll see what happens. I don’t have a clue about what they do. I don’t know how the market will react. I will just tell you that it remains a very news driven environment based on the nonsense out of these people.

So we’ll just have to deal with it.

That does not change the leadership in the market.

Flip Flop

Today, the worst of the areas of the market were the strongest areas today. The Euro had a very strong day, which means that the dollar had a weak day. When the dollar goes down, commodity area and commodity countries go up. When you have chance go look at the UUP (PowerShares Dollar Index) vs the market. You will see that as soon as the UUP topped out, the market started rallying. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.