JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
The government is doing $1.3 trillion in debt per year.
It’s about 98 days until the election. Just remember, neither you nor I caused the deficits. It’s all them: George Bush…Barrack Obama and their people.
Before George Bush, deficits were under control. And then, the deficits went out of control and nobody did anything about it. John Boehner did nothing while George Bush was over overseeing it. And now John Boehner is the loudest voice while Obama does it. Well Obama’s making George Bush look like a piker. And he doesn’t care.
The Market: Here’s My Little Worry
Last Tuesday, the Dow was down 200. And then it rallied up a hundred points because a planted story to the media got out. Let me be clear. It WAS planted. That stuff doesn’t get out there by happenstance. And the plant was basically about how the Fed could be closer to doing something new, like printing more money. And then Wednesday was a non-event. Thursday morning the futures were down a little bit. The Bernanke’s compatriot, Draghi, announced that they were ready to do the same thing that our Fed’s doing.
The market gapped up 250 points on Thursday and then closed up around 200. And then Friday, the people from Italy, Germany and France all came and talked about what they’re going to do to defend the Euro to get things better. And then about 1:30p, bond buying was announced – which is printing of money. They’re going to print money and buy up bonds in order to drive interest rates down. The reason is that interest rates are skyrocketing because the real market said to Spain and Italy, “We’re not funding you anymore.”
So what’s my worry?
- That every move up in the market is because of what a Central Bank says or does.
- That it was the end of the month window dressing.
So we’re entering August.
The Fed is meeting and Wednesday they’re going to come out and announce whatever they’re going to do or not do. I have absolutely no idea what they’re going to do or what they’re going to say. And I have no idea how the markets going to react to it. The fact is they have been printing and easing and will continue no matter what they said.
My thought process is that the market is so set up for the Fed to do something that – what happens if they don’t do something?
And what if they do something that the market reacts negatively to?
And of course, you have the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday.
Then…Friday you have the “Fake Employment Numbers.”
And, of course, they’re fake. 8.2 unemployment? Supposedly, millions of people have left the job market in the past 3 ½ – 4 years. You add those people back and we’re at 11%. You add half of those people back, you’re still at 9 point something.
And I’ve written the Labor Department and asked them for the list of people that supposedly have left the workforce in order to make the unemployment rate look better. No answer.
So we’re going to get a lot of fun stuff over the next three days.
We’ll see how the market reacts.
Me? I’ve been playing this nauseating whipsawing news-driven trading range very lightly. I have not been anywhere near fully invested, because it doesn’t pay to be. That’s how I’m playing it. My stops are the usual. Breaking below the 50-day moving average. Or even before that.
And I’ll wait for a big fat pitch in the market. And the big fat pitch certainly ain’t a 250 point gap from the lows of a range, off of what somebody said. If we start to really get going and get progress, then we’re talking.
I’m not sure we’re there yet. But I’m open to anything.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.