JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
Apple closed down today 25.95. Let me be clear. That’s like a 60 stock dropping 2.59. So keep it in perspective.
Apple missed by a mile. Earnings and revenue decelerated huge. One would think the stock would be down 20% on this news. But no. It was down about 4 ½ percent on the news. Apple also lowered next quarter’s earnings markedly, which they usually do every quarter. What they are saying is that people are putting off buying because they are waiting for the iPhone 5 to come out.
Okay, I’ll buy that and I think that’s probably true. But we also were told how people jumped all over the iPhone 4S and I’m really wondering to myself (and this not bearish talk) at what point are the upgrades not going to be good enough to get everybody to just jump all over a new phone every time. Just a question to ponder.
Anyway, Apple affected some areas of the market today and on a technical basis, Apple broke back below the 50-day moving average and I would call it just in the middle of a range, going back to late-March.
And, of course, we’ll see what the following quarters come up with. Now rumor has it that the iPhone 5 will be announced and I guess it’ll be ready in October. The problem is that’s the 4th quarter, which gets reported in January. We’ll see how it plays out.
Frankly, I wouldn’t be a buyer of Apple now. If I owned it, I don’t really think there’s anything to do just yet. There is support at 565, 548 and 522.
Also of note, just letting you know…
There are a lot of chart breaks going on. I know yesterday that the crooks on Wall Street—the manipulators—floated another “Fed is coming to the rescue in the next week” and as soon as that was put on the Web at 3:30p ET yesterday, the market, which was down 200, only finished down 100.
The Fed meetings, I believe, are July 31st and August 1st and they will decide on something maniacal again. You know what I believe long-term about the moves that they are making. Short-term, anything is possible.
I’m just letting you know right now that the tape remains a mess. More and more areas are going “poof.” More and more stocks are breaking important levels of support. And will just urge you right now to go slow.
The market will eventually come out of this. We know not when or from what point. But we keep a close watch on it every day for accumulation vs. distribution in the major averages, sectors and individual stocks…and so far nothing doing.
We’ve had a lot of jello moving on the plate this earnings season. Got some stocks acting well off the earnings reports. And lots of stocks acting well and really busting down off of earnings reports.
Very important that you pay attention to those earnings reports…or else. It is summertime. There is a lot of news. There is a lot of interference and market manipulation going on with these rumors and…yes, they are done on purpose.
And we’ll get through it.
The coal stocks continue to go into the abyss. The Stowe Coal Index (COAL) ETF has going from 51 to 22 in the past year. Patriot Coal (PCX) has filed for bankruptcy. Arch Coal (ACI) has gone from 28 to down to 5. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) has gone down from 48 to 6.
Peabody Energy has gone from 60 down to 19.
Are you catching the drift here?
This illustrates why we talk sectors here and not just the market as a whole. There are lot of areas over the past year that have been absolutely bludgeoned. So it’s very important to pay attention to sectors and sub-sectors that we continuously follow and it’s important that you do also.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.