First off, a happy and healthy and fabulous Thanksgiving to all.
We do not want to throw cold water on anything. We are always looking for good lows in bearish markets. After all, markets going up are better than markets going down. But as you know, we deal with the evidence at hand. We deal with the weight of the evidence. We deal with what the market is telling us. We deal with price. We do not deal with opinion. We do not deal with down the road predictions.
Futures are up nicely this morning. As usual, we are already seeing some calling for THE LOW. We hope they are right. We hope the markets put in a low into the holiday and soar from here. But we know hope does not work in the market. We have tried. It doesn’t work.
So before you go out and get excited about today and more than likely Friday’s half day:
In just the past 9 trading days from the high to yesterday’s lows:
The DOW is down 7.25%
The S&P is down 6.53%
The NASDAQ is down 9.81%
The NASDAQ 100 is down 10.6%
APPLE is down 16.2%
AMAZON is down 20.4%
Keep in mind, these numbers are from lower highs, not the all-time highs…and IN JUST 9 TRADING DAYS. Repeat….IN JUST 9 TRADING DAYS.
We also had to mention that the price of OIL is down a whopping 30% in just over 6 weeks. One would think that is also stretched, extended and oversold.
We could list just about every other sector, every other index and every other stock but we gather you get the point. We are seeing some people thrilled this morning calling for an end to the sell-off, thrilled that a few names like Boeing and Amazon reversed nicely yesterday. We just want you to remember, bounces happen in bearish markets. Bounces happen to relieve the very stretched, extended and oversold conditions. Once those conditions are relieved, the bear reasserts itself. The last oversold rally had the DOW rally over 2,000 points in short order. Guess what happened next!?
We actually thought during the day yesterday that the market would have a decent reversal. Instead, we get a gap to the upside today. We gather it holds because of the holiday…but after that? We will just let the cards come out of the deck.
Lastly, the one question we get asked the most is about trade. We expect some sort of something. Not sure what it will be but gotta believe the administration is watching markets. We also make note of the fact that the administration has put that dude Navarro in a closet and locked the door making us believe we may get a softening of rhetoric as well as softening of threats. As far as market reaction to whatever happens, we will cross that bridge when we get there. But our mantra stands. TARIFFS SUCK!
Again…a happy happy happy Thanksgiving to all.