Another random wild day yesterday. If the market closed at 330 pm, would have said great day for Dow up 260 but NASDAQ lagged being flat…but DOW ended up down and NASDAQ smacked. The drop happened in the last 15 minutes.
Eventually, the volatile days will stop but then what?
Best guess…FOR NOW…that high volume, monstrous reversal from Monday could be A low for now, that is the low of that day. FOR NOW, that’s the thought process but will let more cards come out of the deck. While not thrilled with yesterday’s close, willing to give a little benefit of doubt here…just a little. If we had the market do our bidding, it would back and fill for a few weeks before going higher…if it wants to go higher.
The good news getting some good earnings reactions past couple of days…SNAP big gap and go. And today, TWTR and GRUB gapping strong. This could be a sign. Good gap reactions do not usually happen in bear markets.
But a lot of stuff ugly…go look at OILS…OIH, XLE, XOP…just as an example with many other areas showing some decent short-term tops. We shall know in weeks whether it turns into more.
Be careful of the big bear talk. Be careful of the big bull talk. If you try to get ahead of yourself, you will drive yourself up a wall with the swings. Eventually, market will show its hand and for now, we think Monday is important and like we are seeing strong reactions to earnings…but a lot of technical damage has been done.
Lastly, we cannot believe the mis-reporting on easy money policy. We keep hearing talk about tight policy. Say what/ We are at 1.25%. Europe and Japan are negative and still printing money. Do not believe a word that is said. Deal with facts. They have been easy. They are easy and will continue to be easy because they cannot afford to be anything but easy.