WEEKEND NOTES MARKETS/FED/CHINA

-By Gary Kaltbaum- December 2, 2018-

-Never met the man but more than being the president for 4 years, George H.W. Bush was a great husband, great father, great grandfather and great friend…and that means more than anything. RIP!-
-Last Monday night, we alerted all on tv, radio and in pen that we thought another A LOW was in. To repeat, the thought process was simple…just about everyone turned bearish, markets were ridiculously stretched, extended and oversold to the downside…and we were entering the end-of-month as well as the December period. Just because it is A LOW, it does not mean it is THE LOW. And then who said this in October of 2012?-
-“INVESTORS REALLY DO UNDERSTAND NOW THAT WE WILL BE THERE TO PREVENT SERIOUS LOSSES!”- 
-It was not Greenspan. It was not Bernanke. It was not Yellen. It was a dude named Jay Powell. Yes…that Jay Powell who on Wednesday ,went from being Paul Volcker to being what he said back in 2012…just another easy money, bubble inducing, central bank bubble maker. He appeased the whining Trump and all the whining wall streeters who never see a bearish phase coming and whine all the way down. Yes…with unemployment below 4% and GDP above 3%, another central bank joke could not even stand a measly 2-2.25%, and while Europe and Japan are still negative and printing. But…for us, that confirmed THE LOW. As soon as we saw Powell’s words, we again knew the fed was looking to stop even more serious losses. Remember, every time the market corrected under Bernanke, he eased and eased ever higher. So, just when you thought price discovery would finally be here, the juices get flowing again. Just remember, all these moves continue to enable massive…and we mean massive debt, deficits and leverage…to the tune of $250 trillion of global government debt…but don’t worry because our mantra has always told you everything is fine as long as markets cooperate.-
-And:-
-Now we are told a major breakthrough with China trade has occurred as the president is now putting off more tariffs and promises to continue to talk. We ask what changed? China agreed to buying some things? Trump agrees to not raise tariffs? What day is it?- 
-But:-
-We waited to write this until futures opened up and open up they did. Currencies that were going one way are going the other way. Think yuan! Futures are up 450 Dow points. All problems have been eliminated.-
-We stand fast with our A LOW call this past Monday and upon the latest from Powell, our THE LOW call. It does not take a rocket scientist to tell you if we indeed open hot tomorrow, markets are now ridiculously stretched, extended and overbought, this time to the upside…and in 5 days and a gap. Sell time already? See what central banks will do for you. Until markets act otherwise, never fight an easier fed. – 
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