START OF THE WEEK NOTES

The big BUT is the virus. We have stated on radio, tv and any time we are asked that if the virus gets going again, all bets are off. Here are some headlines this morning. We combined some together:

Italy has put in place its strongest virus restrictions since the country ended a national lock down in May and Spain is also imposing new measures, including a curfew, as rising infection rates force European governments to act. Bulgaria’s prime minister and Poland’s president have both tested positive for Covid-19, while three staff and advisers close to U.S. Vice President Mike Pence have also contracted the virus. The signs across the rest of the U.S. are not encouraging either, with a surge in cases in  Midwest states moving further east and cases in New York and New Jersey at the highest since May.  Europe’s second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is accelerating, forcing countries to impose ever-more social-distancing rules in a bid to avoid a return to full-blown lock downs. France announced a daily record for coronavirus infections, with confirmed infections reaching over 52,000 on Sunday, compared with nearly 84,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. on Saturday, whose population is around five times bigger. Italy, struggling with an explosive rise in infections, imposed the toughest restrictions on its population since ending its lock down, including the closure of all bars and restaurants at 6 p.m. In Spain, the government announced a state of emergency, as it did in March, giving national authorities greater powers to impose social-distancing and emergency health-care policies. Daily confirmed infections in Europe, which overtook the U.S.’s daily detected infections during October, are threatening to overwhelm European countries’ capacity to test, trace and isolate virus carriers, leading authorities and health experts to warn that the pandemic could intensify. Governments are hoping that last-ditch measures such as curbs on socializing and nightlife can reduce contagion again without strangling Europe’s economic recovery.

BUT THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS:

So far, however, deaths from Covid-19’s second wave are a fraction of Europe’s heavy death toll in March and April. Many recently infected people have no or only light symptoms. Earlier detection and treatment, as well as improved public awareness and medical knowledge, are helping to contain the number of severely ill cases. But doctors and public-health experts warn that uncontrolled contagion would eventually revive the pressure on hospitals that led to a shortage of intensive-care beds in some of Europe’s hardest-hit cities this spring. Some hospitals in Madrid, Paris and other hot spots are already warning of an unsustainable rise in patients.

BUT WE ALSO HAVE THIS:

The White House and House Democrats accused each other of “ moving the goalposts” on stimulus legislation, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi saying that the chamber may pass a pandemic relief plan this week but that a deal with the White House remains elusive. There is growing pessimism that nothing will be passed before the election on Nov. 3 as the two sides continue to trade blame.

BUT WE ARE NOT DONE:

SAP, a major German software company misses on revenues AND LOWERS OUTLOOK. It is down a juicy $31 to $118. That’s over 20% for a major name.

So…as of this second, not a good open but we have seen many a day where markets open poorly only to be bought up. The 50 day moving average will need to hold. All major indices are just above after pulling back in a constructive manner over the past couple weeks. With everything going on, not to mention an election, nothing is out of the question. As always, we shall let the market guide us but know THIS IS THE MOST NEWS-DRIVEN ENVIRONMENT we have experienced in our lifetime.