kaltbaum midday

Choppy day. Market sucked some in on the gap. I wasnt falling for it. We will see how day finishes but if market cannot rally, today would count as a churning distribution day as the boys sold the open. The good news is things are off their lows.

My best guess is that market remains choppy and a pain in the rear. I do not think the lows of last week are taken out any time soon but thinking upside could be an issue. European markets reversed the early jamboree today as Spain gets a loan to fix a problem of too many bad loans…hahahahahaha. Spanish yields actually up today even though their banks were saved.

For the service, DLTR acting just fine. BHI bouncing around as oils went from green to very red back to a little green.

Actually seeing more shorts than longs…just a little gunshy with all the news. Look at housing like len,tol, Look where cmg cant get above…same for ma…so 50 day containing a few things.

AAPL above the 50 day again by a smidge as they are yapping today about stuff. I think it needs time. UA was up over $3.50…not cut in half as they announce 2-1 split. After that, a lot of sitting today.

kaltbaum premarket

No changes from last night. Futures are up but off highs.

Of note:

One of my favorite lower volume names, MLNX, gapping up over $4 as Intel selects their chip.

UA announces 2 for 1 stock split. Good breakout Friday but again, I will wait to buy today.

AAPL will open above 50 day average but not an automatic buy for me…just yet. They have a conference today.

We will work off that list i gave you last night but still want to see how market takes the “good” news that Spain needed a 100 billion euro bailout for their banks. Amazing amount for their size. Next up…GREECE.

Cover BHI if it gets back above $40.

My best guess is that when this “news-driven” move peters out, we are going to see a lot of whippy action…so keep your feet on the ground.

kaltbaum report

Coming into the weekend, I was paying more attention to my list of leaders more than market…but always need a follow through day to really start buying. While last week was good action, a ftd was not included. But…there was anticipation of another ” EUROPE SAVE!” Well…this time, Spain received over $100 billion euro to save their banks. Funny, I thought it was Greece that needed saving. It should be obvious to all that debt is killing Europe and it is killing the U.S. The only reason the U.S isn’t worse is because we have maniacs running the show…that print money and just create more debt. Time will tell if this debt bubble blows up. It certainly is happening in Europe. But in the short run, markets love money printing. Markets love more debt…and as I write this, the market loves that Spain was given over $100 billion more in debt to fix the problem caused by debt. HMMMMM! Dow futures are up 145…but of course it can change over night. There is no way I am giving you out any plays on a gap like this. I need to see if it holds or if it will get sold into. So…here is the leader’s list with updated notes. You will see I put aapl back because it is about to break back above the 50 day.

AAPL-tracing out very nice base here. Real strong considering how far it went up.
AMZN-held 50 day on recent pullback but lots of resistance into 233…with shaky earnings.

ALXN-basing since March…somewhat suspect base but very good r/s. Needs to leap $95.
BBBY-holding 50 day on every pullback as it ascends from strong earnings move in April.
BIIB-rallies back above 50 day which it has held for months.
CRUS-holds 50 day on harsh pullback…almost back at highs.
CERN-pulls back into the 50 day and holding. Bullish wedge.
DDS-holding 50 day again on Friday..
DLTR-teflon stock gaps down…and right back up into new highs.
EBAY-holds 50 day and back in base formed from last gap to the upside.
EXPE-new highs…strong r/s…accelerating numbers off big gap.
GNC-holding 50 day here…not by much.
MNST-really strong holding 21 day as it ascends.
PETM-strong reaction to numbers…and moving out of flag. New high.
ROST-another discounter refuses to buckle-reverses back above 50 day and ascends…new high.
SHW-never thought a paint stock could be this strong.
SWI-holding 50 day.
TRIP-same group as EXPE…basing between 40 and 45.
TJX- another holding 50 day all the way up…another discounter.
UA-breaks into new highs from 12 week base. Volume only 20% better.
ULTA- back above 50 day off numbers…needs handle.
WFM-ascending bases above the 50 day…almost breaking out.

On the service is DLTR long and BHI short. The short was working. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The advice provided through Trading Markets.com is not necessarily the advice that KCM follows when managing client portfolios. Therefore KCM often acts on behalf of its advisory clients in a manner not consistent with the recommendations provided in this publication. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. Employees and clients of KCM may invest in securities discussed through this publication, however if a security’s technicals change, KCM will reevaluate its position and may sell part or all of its holdings prior to communicating the change to subscribers. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.



In the Overtime segment of his show last night, Bill Maher argued that America would be wise to drop the whole notion of “American exceptionalism.” In the past, Maher has criticized politicians like Mitt Romney (who wrote a book literally called No Apologies) for their constant praise of the United States without any acknowledgement of its perceived faults, and he returned to this argument again yesterday.

Maher said he thinks in a hundred years or so, the United States will be a Mormon nation because many people will certainly be turned on to an America-centric religion that pretty much makes the country out to be one big shining city on a hill. Also, as Maher succinctly put it, “it’s a stupid religion and a stupid country, they were made for each other.” E.J. Dionne tried to defend Mormonism from Maher, but Maher dismissed the religion as the work of a “con man” in contrast to the sincerity of Jesus.


SOURCE: http://www.mediaite.com

kaltbaum almost midday report

I really like today’s action today. While commodities are being sold off, retail,semis getting good bid. Financials turning green as well as transports. In the midst of thinking these lower commodity prices going to maybe help market.
Also, I love how my leaders list is acting. Everything either holding support/moving averages or some things setting up to move out or are moving out. I may just add a few longs without a follow through day. The good news is DLTR is moving up while the short from this morning, BHI, is moving down.

If the leaders start breaking, then I worry.

I will again put out the leaders list with notes to you over the weekend.



The Obama Administration has given a former director at the scandal-plagued Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN) nearly half a billion dollars to offer “struggling” Illinois homeowners mortgage assistance, a Judicial Watch investigation has found.

It means the ACORN official (Joe McGavin) will go from operating a corrupt leftist community group that’s banned by Congress from receiving federal funding to controlling over $445 million in U.S. taxpayer funds.  The money is part of a $7.6 billion Treasury Department program to help the “unemployed or substantially underemployed” make their mortgage payments.


SOURCE: http://www.judicialwatch.org



Internal emails show that BrightSource Energy, which received the largest federal loan for a solar energy project under President Obama’s stimulus package, leveraged its considerable political connections with top Democratic policymakers to secure its $1.6 billion in taxpayer backing.

BrightSource energy faced a “do-or-die moment,” according to a report in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal, as the Energy Department weighed a federal loan for its massive Ivanpah solar farm in the California Mojave Desert.


SOURCE: http://blog.heritage.org

kaltbaum pre market

As usual, changes from last night. LEN and COP both downgraded…LEN already down 35…so do not play either. BHI is a short if it breaks below $40. I would only be probing and not sending it in right now.

There is a crapload of other shorts and will provide a list for your review with notes over the weekend.

Futures are down but way off their lows. Yesterday was quite suspicious.

kaltbaum email

I can be short and to the point…and blunt. There was nothing I liked about today’s action…and in fact, have lots of short set-ups.

BHI breaking below $40.

LEN right in here as housing tops.

COP in here as it rallied right back into the 50 day.

I will have more. This may or may not change depending on tomorrow’s open.

kaltbaum midday

I wanted to wait until Bernanke stopped yapping before writing about today. It is only midday but have a few thoughts:

I refuse to watch and listen to Bernanke but I amm told he didnt really talk about more QE. Let me be clear. Bernanke WILL CONTINUE TO PRINT MONEY FOREVER. This is who he is and what he is about. It is insane to do what he is doing because the repercussions will be horrible down the road but he knows markets love it. Please do not listen to the nimrods who think by not mentioning it, that he has stopped.

As far as market, I am a tweener…neither bull nor bear. THERE IS STILL NO FOLLOW THROUGH DAY so be careful. Also, I am not enamored with the charts in many areas…and frankly, remember I told you that on rallies, many shorts will set up? Well…many names are now heading into those resistance areas. So while I gave you a list of leaders, into the weekend, I will give you a list of uglies for your review.

I have sneaking suspicion that this market will continue to be a massive pain in the ass. The best thing you can do is drown out everything and look at the pictures. They usually do not lie. The news is fluid and on a daily basis, we have to deal with the assclowns that run the show. That’s ok as the market will decide everything.

We’ll see how it finishes but gold is being smoked today. A few too many people emailing me telling me I should be bullish. For me, if gold follows the 70s, it has some more time and price before the final humongous blowoff top.

Lastly, nothing happening with the growth leaders today…just sitting. The bulk of today”s move is the down and out stuff that was way way down. Also, defensive utilities remain very strong.