SPRINGFIELD, Ill. (AP) — Recession-plagued states diverted scarce money away from pensions to pay for more immediate concerns, leaving a $757 billion hole in the retirement fundscovering millions of public employees, according to a study released Monday.

The Pew Center on the States found 34 states failed to maintain safe levels of money in the pension funds, which most experts agree is about 80 percent of long-term obligations. Four states — Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky and Rhode Island — didn’t even have 55 percent of the money they’ll need in the long run.

The total gap between the money states had available and what they’ll have to pay out in the decades ahead reached $757 billion in 2010, the most recent year for which figures are available. That was up 9 percent from the year before, according to the study entitled “The Widening Gap Update



kaltbaum premarket

Futures up about half percent as the fed starts two day meeting. I hate the fact that we have to depend on one man’s moves. Think about it. If they come out and say nothing about more printing of money (QE), the market will be hit. The reason is they telegraphed more easing late last week. I guess this is the new normal. Good day for growth yesterday…but taking a pass this morning. I want to see a few things pull in. You may want to take out a chart going back to last May. This rally looks exactly like June’s rally before the market topped shy of the old highs and then rolled over. Doesn’t mean it repeats. Just pointing it out.

kaltbaum email

Great day for growth today while the dow was down. Hopefully it continues as it will just set more and more things up.

Had scanning issues tonight. Will have premarket with picks in the morning.

kaltbaum midday

I think you can probe AAPL with a stop under the lows of June 14.

Small probes can be taken in CRUS and EBAY. Both near term extended…thus the small probe. If they pull them in, you look to add.

Even though DOW is down, VERY STRONG NASDAQ…which is always leading index bith up and down.




Just out of hand irresponsible nut jobs running the show. Read this:

While the Senate Banking Committee last week spun its wheels trying to get JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon to admit to something nefarious during testimony about his “London Whale” trading loss, executives at the big bank were concealing a far bigger scandal.

OK, it’s no secret that nation’s public pension funds are in big trouble, holding large “unfunded” liabilities owed to public workers once they retire. But most politicians (New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is an exception) will tell you the problem is fairly containable, that there are simple fixes — such as raising taxes on the rich or pruning benefits.

Not so, warns a “strictly confidential” report JP Morgan issued last year. It describes in straightforward, frightening detail how underfunded pensions are huge ticking timebombs for many of the nation’s big cities and states.



kaltbaum report

Well, I lost a $100 bet…as the futures have reversed. Last night, they hit to up 90…right now, they are down about 50. Yields continue to rise in Europe as well as many realizing nothing has changed. So…follow through day on Friday…but only 1.3%. HMMM!

Here is leaders list first:

AAPL-tracing out very nice base here. Needs to move above 50 day.

AMZN- still having trouble getting into resistance…suspect earnings.

ALXN-basing since March…somewhat suspect base but very good r/s. Needs to leap $95.

BBBY-holding 50 day on every pullback as it ascends from strong earnings move in April.

BIIB-rallies back above 50 day which it has held for months…into new highs but slooow earnings.

CRUS-holds 50 day on harsh pullback…almost back at highs.

CERN-strong move off 50 day…nearing highs.

DLTR-teflon stock gaps down…and right back up into new highs…very strong group.

EBAY-holds 50 day and back in base formed from last gap to the upside.

EXPE-new highs…strong r/s…accelerating numbers off big gap…very strong name.

EQIX-breaks into new highs.

MNST-really strong holding 21 day as it ascends…very strong.

PETM-strong reaction to numbers…and moving out of flag. New high….extended.

ROST-another discounter refuses to buckle-reverses back above 50 day and ascends…new high.

SHW-never thought a paint stock could be this strong. SWI-holds50 day on Friday.

TRIP-same group as EXPE…basing between 40 and 45…needs to leap $45.

TJX- another holding 50 day all the way up…another discounter.

UA-Holds on pullback.

ULTA- back above 50 day off numbers…forming good handle.

WFM-… breaking out on Friday.

I took off GNC because it broke 50 and DDS. Put on EQIX off of recent action. With the surprising futures, first, hold off on aapl. Secondly, going to watch UA and WFM…and hope to see them pull in before probing. Just remember, a ton of follow through days in June/July have not worked. Also…1.3% is not the biggest number. I want to see if distribution shows up today.



At about 3 pm on Thursday, the market looked to be crapping out once again…but not to be. Big Ben and his cohorts, in a coordinated effort, leaked to the press that they were ready with their bazookas once again. That was enough for the market to rip to the upside into the close…and then follow up on Friday. Regardless, the market experienced a follow through day on Friday which puts the market back into an uptrend.  We do not rationalize why. We only care about what the market exhibits. Keep in mind, while every bullish phase has started with a follow through day, not every follow through day has led to a bullish phase. This important characteristic just gives the potential to have a bullish phase.

There are a few technical occurrences we like. Firstly, major averages broke below important support and then immediately broke back above the support making it a “false breakdown.” This serves to wash out late sellers. Secondly, major indices have tightened up in the last week leading to several breaking above near term resistance. Lastly, foreign markets, that have been bludgeoned, look like they have held their lows. When the weakest comes off the lows, it usually leads to upside testing.

That all said, it continues to be one of the most news-driven environments on record. The constant interference and manipulation by the Fed sickens us but realize it is just something we will have to deal with. Speaking of the fed, they will be yapping this week. Yeah!  We now get to deal with supposed good news out of Greece but our stance has not changed there. Nothing will be fixed until the structure of the problems are fixed..and there continues to be no interest in this. Just take a gander at France where a very socialist government is taking over. In spite of the problems and the debt, the new dude comes in and lowers the retirement age…not the other way around. Frankly, we don’t blame him. These people have to be voted in. And oh yes, we will be in Greece, France and Italy over the next two weeks. We will report back to you on the goings on while we are there.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.


kaltbaum email

The bullcrap Greek elections went the way of the good…or something like that…in that the pro- Euro people won…by a slim margin. Yippee…yeah…yeah…at least I won’t have much to worry about on my Greek trip.

The market had a follow through day on Friday…this according to IBD but it was only 1.3%. In the past, a ftd had to be a high as 2%, then 1.7, then 1.5 and now 1.3 is ok. Any way, in case you did not know, according to IBD:

“Among follow-through days, the 1.3% gain in the Nasdaq is historically on the light side. Since 2000, three other follow-through days came with smaller percentage gains. Two in 2005 failed, and one in 2006 worked.Also, every follow-through day in June and July since 2000 has either failed or delivered inconclusive results. Yet, that doesn’t mean this follow-through can’t work. The June data could be chance.”

I think there was also a ftd with a smaller move that failed in April.

I do not know if this works. I do know the bazookas are out from the fed as well as the feds around the globe as they have gone to the same money printing school that bernanke teaches. I really think the market was crapping out until 3 pm Thursday when they announced the central bank’s intentions. Nevertheless, DLTR working well….my list of leaders doing well…and here is a few more.

I think you can probe AAPL if it breaks back above the 50 day…about 580ish.

UA and WFM right around here…probe position because they are a little ahead of themselves. Can add on low volume pullbacks. Should have probed favorites like expe and mnst even before any ftd as they were showing extraordinary strength.

As I write this, futures are up 75 dow points.



On Wednesday the Department of Energy began financing solar power installation research with a $2 million award to Solar Mosaic. The solar energy research company has former Obama “green jobs” czar Van Jones listed as an advisor. It also employed Rebuild the Dream, Jones’ firm, to do its public relations work.

The DOE’s grant money will be distributed to nine companies in four states. Solar Mosaic received the most money, four times the amount of most other grants.



kaltbaum premarket

Futures are weird this morning. Seeing the Qs down…other things up a little…this is down from earlier but another crappy economic number came out.

I was really irritated yesterday. I hate market interference. I could have easily been short at 3 pm yesterday and would have been wacked. The best move into the weekend is to sit. The service owns DLTR…this weekend, will outline list of leaders and shorts but right now, we are held hostage by the fed and central banks as well as Greek elections. Speaking of Greece, I am headed there next week for a week cruise to the Greek Islands. Let’s hope there are no issues. I will be in Europe from the 21st until the 7th of July. I may miss one or two reports but that’s about it as I schedule my days to where I can scan and manage the money I manage. It is 6 hours later there.

I am in particular watching the nasdaq and semis as they were really vulnerable yesterday. That will have to change.