kaltbaum premarket

Early movers:

V and MA up nicely as their lawsuit pays out less than expected…and supposedly ends litigation against them by the retailers. Both up about 2-2.5%. C up on numbers about 3%. That’s JPM,WFC and now C reacting well to numbers.

Futures are down but not by much. Retail sales number was poor this morning. Until I say otherwise. ..trading environment right now, not investing. I gave you a fuller report last night for your review on areas typically not played at this service…but to make you aware that other areas working.
When I say to probe, it means partial positions. Would not send it in right now. HD needs the breakout…only probe on the breakout. CTRX and ULTA are small probes off the 50 day…with stops below. Stops are only about 2-3% below…in other words, not a lot of risk.
After the close earnings: JBHT, WYNN. Tomorrow morning: KO,CMA,GS,HOG,JNJ,KSU,STT,SCHW

kaltbaum email

The expectation is that the market has some more upside near term based on last week’s late action. Also seeing good set-ups in financials with a WFC breaking out…and not much bad happens when financials have a bid. Just keep in mind, there are a zillion reports coming out in the next two weeks and that the overall market is just in a range. If they start to move the leaders, I will issue alerts on them but right now, just a few holds of the 50 day and trading range action.
My growth leaders list:
Going through it, it is easy to see that the market has not enabled big gains recently. Most are just sitting (which is a good thing when markets are hit) while others have pulled into the 50 day (which is also fine as long as they hold) and a few that have broke below and are bye-bye for now. AMZN,CRUS,EBAY are 3 names that are off for now. EXPE would have come off if not for a good bounce back into the 50 on Friday.
AAPL- Setting up well into earnings…but 5th stage base.
AMZN– Breaks 50 day…wide and loose…off this list for now.
ALXN- Pullback mode after breaking out…trading sloppy…but stilll strong.
BIIB- Sits tight while others pull in…blah numbers.
CRUS– Breaks 50 day…SEMIS very weak group. Comes off this list.
CERN- Holds the 50 day.
DLTR- At 50 day…not thrilled with bearish wedge just above 50 day. A break below and bye-bye. Late stage.
EQIX- held 50 day to the penny on Thursday…acting fine as it rides it up.
EXPE- Breaks 50 day…almost off this list.
EBAY– Breaks 50 day…off list for now.
MNST- Sitting on 50 day and holds over past couple of days.
PETM- Very strong…didn’t budge.
PRGO- wild action after getting extended. Needs to tighten up.
ROST- Held 50 day on numbers. Late stage group. Acting fine.
SHW- Holds 50 day to the penny Thursday and back in base. Already big move.
TRIP- Holds 50 day to the penny on Friday and bounces strong. Potential big leader.
TJX- Moving into new highs here…but have to watch group. Continues to ascend nicely.
ULTA- Reverses back above 50 day on Thursday and is holding in new base.
V- Held 50 day to the penny on Thursday and back in base after failing breakout. MA is wide and loose.
WFM- still strong…nothing to do. Pulls in quietly.
Other notes:
I cannot help but mention the continued strength in the reits,drugs,food,beverages,household products, utilities, telco utilities. The new high list on the nyse is just about all reits and utilities. This service typically does not play these areas but had to make note of them. Here is a list for your review from the new high list:
Not on the new high list but with good charts are ABT,BMY,CHD,ECL,HSY,HNZ,KO,LO,MO,MKC,PEP,MO.
The issue with all these names is that growth is too slow…meaning they are capped on how far they can go…but I wanted to give you list just in case you like low beta, mega cap stuff with some having decent dividends.
Homebuilders continue to act great…new highs in LEN,MDC,MTH,PHM,SPF,RYL,TOL. Extended from recent move. I do think they may start pulling back here.
For the first time in months, a few financial names have showed up…just on a technical basis…not a fundamental basis.
WFC in a cup and handle breakout of early pivot…34.60 is next high.
STI needs to break above $25…but report this week. Great chart.
COF needs to leap above $55.40 but also reports this week.
DFS very strong relative strength and good pattern.
USB looks perfect but also reports this week.
TCBI low volume name…look how strong that it. Never budged.
BBT shaping up but also reports this week.
Nice handles along 50 day in XLF and IYF.
Had to mention TGT…should have played after watching WMT. Perfect breakout on Tuesday…look what happened Friday. Good to see that type of action.
IYR looks perfect as an ETF for the REITS. I mentioned some REITS earlier.
As far as plays, I am still in the trading camp and not investing. I have this sneaking suspicion that there could just be some more flop and chop.
HD is buyable moving above 53.28.
I think you can probe CTRX and ULTA here off the 50 day…but you must stop if the 50 day is broken to the downside.
I love the setups in STI,UNP,USB,COF but all report this week.



The words of President Obama:

There are a lot of wealthy, successful Americans who agree with me — because they want to give something back.  They know they didn’t — look, if you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own.  You didn’t get there on your own.  I’m always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart.  There are a lot of smart people out there.  It must be because I worked harder than everybody else.  Let me tell you something — there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there.  [Emphasis added]

He continued:

If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help.  There was a great teacher somewhere in your life.  Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive.  Somebody invested in roads and bridges.  If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that.  Somebody else made that happen.  The Internet didn’t get invented on its own.  Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet. [Emphasis added]


SOURCE: http://www.theblaze.com



….Claiming others not serious about the deficit. Yes…Mr. President, we know how serious you are about the deficit. Your seriousness is in your deficits that YOU created…not Mitt Romney…not the Tea Party. Only you! Does he even think no one is watching?


SOURCE: http://www.businessweek.com




Republicans are accusing the Obama administration of unilaterally gutting welfare reform after the Department of Health and Human Services quietly notified states that they may seek a waiver for the program’s strict work requirements. 

HHS made the announcement in a policy memo Thursday, news that slipped well below the radar amid a raucous day on the presidential campaign trail. But a few prominent GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill picked up on the change, and accused the administration of overhauling one of the most important bipartisan agreements of the past several decades. 


SOURCE: http://www.foxnews.com

kaltbaum early notes

Combine the ok reaction in JPM and WFC with this…the rumor of the ECB buying up Euros…which jacked the market up…especially the down and out commodity areas and the down and out weak dollar plays…namely IBM. The rumor is probably true…but frankly, couldn’t care less. Markets were near term oversold. Put buying was huge yesterday so all this gives market a chance to bounce off support which is right around the 50 day for all the major indices.
Leading growth names at or near the 50 day are CERN,DLTR,EQIX,MNST,SHW,TRIP,ULTA,V…Names like EQIX,SHW,V bouncing off 50 day already…but just keep in mind, just forming new bases. Strongest group remains housing but dont have anywhere to buy those names right now.
If you look at the OIH,XLE,XOP, they have little handles here…so also have a chance to rally a bit of weaker dollar/stronger euro…that helps major indices. Seems every move comes off a government move because the economic numbers out this morning were less than expected again.

kaltbaum pre market


This morning…JPMORGAN blah blah blah. Too funny to watch a couple of these ANALysts on tv saying to buy the stock. I have news for them. I just went over the numbers and the fact is…EINSTEIN couldn’t figure the numbers out. This company was one of the few financials I thought I could trust…but no more. The stock was up…came back in and then as soon as they announced that they could buy back shares but will wait, the stock went back up 2%…yippee yeah yeah.
Futures are up. I was told that the put buying was extreme yesterday meaning everyone jumped on the bear bandwagon…which usually turns market in the short term. So wouldn’t be surprised to get some sort of rally here…but to be clear…market is blah. There is no leadership. What was leading has either broken down, failed breakouts or tucked their head back into a base. So it is very important you have patience here.
I will have a leader’s report over the weekend…but be rest assured, there is not one name that is really popping right now. I am sure we can find some during earning’s season which gets going next week. If there are any big changes by the open, will send you another report.



The government has been targeting Spanish speakers with radio “novelas” promoting food stamp usage as part of a stated mission to increase participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or food stamps.

Each novela, comprising a 10-part series called “PARQUE ALEGRIA,” or “HAPPINESS PARK,” presents a semi-dramatic scenario involving characters convincing others to get on food stamps, or explaining how much healthier it is to be on food stamps.


SOURCE: http://dailycaller.com



Penn State’s internal investigation released a final report Thursday describing how the University’s top officials ‘repeatedly concealed critical facts’ about former assistant coach Jerry Sandusky’s sexual abuse of young boys for over a decade. 

The report was spearheaded by former FBI director Louis Freeh who was hired by the school’s board to lead the nearly-eight-month investigation, interviewing hundreds of people before determining that Paterno and three other leaders at Penn State showed ‘callous and shocking disregard’ for Sandusky’s young victims and chose to keep word of his sex abuse quiet for fear of bad publicity.

‘The most powerful men at Penn State failed to take any steps for 14 years to protect the children who Sandusky victimized,’ the Freeh report states.


SOURCE: http://www.dailymail.co.uk

kaltbaum midday

Well…a bunch of things reversing…with some things strong. But still a lot of damage being done unless the nasdaq and russell reverse. As of this second, dow is masking things as MRK,PG and CVX making things better but no doubt, market is trying to defend its turf here.
Underneath the surface:
Housing remains very strong. Not only reverses but is strong today.
V and SHW hold the 50 day to the penny.
AAPL just looks like a pullback on its chart.
Discounters like TJX,ROST are fine…and DLTR still holding. TGT just broke out.
PETM not budging.
Do not get me wrong…market has issues but just thinking downside could also be contained this second…but plenty of crappy areas and charts still out there.
Will be back with more tonight.