THE FORK!

In my last short missive, I told you the market could bounce off of vital long term support. Well, the market had another one day gap to the upside off that support which has looked to have already failed. Major indices are now on the cusp of breaking the long term support this morning as the market is gapping down again. If this support is taken out, my thoughts of a correction akin to last year will come to fruition as I believe sellers could show up as the big boys will recognize the market is not holding. Last year, major indices dropped between 14% and 20% depending on which index you look at. We are still in the end of quarter, window dressing season so hopefully, markets can hold in here for now. But I am thinking there is an eventuality to this.

My bigger problems remain the same. Many this morning are talking about Bernanke saying he had no clue why the economy has softened. I am seeing headlines titled “CLUELESS!” Sorry…this column has been telling you for years that Bernanke has been wrong 90% of the time, causes problems, creates bubbles and when in trouble, his only answer is more leverage and debt to cure a problem of too much leverage and debt. NOW…everyone is figuring this out. Of course, the other problem is the nonsensical economic policies of this administration in which I could write a novel about. Economic numbers remain putrid. I sniffed out a stalling economy about 3 months ago…and now markets are reacting.

I wish I had better news for you…but I deal in facts. The fact is the economy is turning down. The fact is the big money crowd is selling. The only issue now is how bad this could get. I do not rule out a bear market…the one everyone defines by a 20% drop in the major indices. But I don’t need to go there. Just knowing a downtrend is enough. Should be another thrilling day!

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

VERY STRONG GROWTH ACTION THIS MORNING

It is early but so far, today is the first time I have seen strong growth stock action in weeks…and it came right at an important juncture. As you know, I thought many weeks ago that the market was going to correct. So far, it has been nominal measured by the indices, almost 10%. The near-term good news is that a few important major indices have been sitting on longer-term support…and notwithstanding the mother of all reversals today, those support levels are holding. Just one glance at the NASDAQ will show vital support going back to March at 2603. Also, the RUSSELL and the S&P held the 200 day moving average in recent days. Are we off to the races? Quite unlikely. Loads of resistance ahead. But I am just happy to see important growth names bid up and shorts having to cover. Now we need to see a follow through day to get a potential trend change. No matter what, as I have stated for months, it ain’t going to be easy.

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

STILL NO POSITIVES

Before comments on the market, a few notes:

Who are they trying to kid? GREECE will eventually default. Anything the rescuers are doing just puts off the inevitable. Forget opinion. Look at the numbers. As I have read and confirmed, at the end of 2010, the ECB’s equity capital was 10.8 billion Euros. Compare this number to the 48 billion euros in Greek debt on the ECB’s books. Need I say more. This does not include the trouble in other European countries.

Those that have been following me since TARP was announced know I cannot stand anything or anyone that are involved in the nonsense. I do not want to rehash all my complaints of Geithner, Paulson, Bush, Cox, Bernanke, Obama and the rest. I have only hoped things would change, the personalities would change and the strategies would change. Nothing doing. More debt to cure the problem of debt. More spending to cure the problem of too much spending and the same people that brought us to this position are still in power. So…when I heard Obama had announced another committee, I knew we would get the same old…same old. Well, you be the judge. The President announced the very important JOBS and COMPETITIVENESS COUNCIL.  He should have announced it on the Comedy Channel. Who is on the council? Jeffrey Immelt of GE whose stock has dropped over  60-70% over the last decade, not to mention the dumping of over 25,000 jobs over the past decade. Who is on the council? The head of Eastman Kodak. Oops! That stock is only down 90% in the past decade. Back in 2000, Kodak’s number of employees was over 75,000. Last I read, they are down to 18,000. Xerox…has dumped employees to the tune of 33% in the past decade. American Express has cut payrolls by 25%. This is a JOBS COUNCIL? Hahahahahahaha!

I caught a lot of grief several weeks back when I said APPLE stock may be putting in a big top. I am no longer catching grief. All I saw was a stock that was losing relative strength while the market was holding up near highs. Volume was heavy on the down days…light on the up days. This was one of the worries I had for the overall market as APPLE is most definitely an important cog in the wheel.

I am still seeing no positives. Despite stretched, extended and oversold conditions, the market just can’t bounce. I do not consider the past two days, a 100 point DOW gain a bounce as the more important index, the NASDAQ was down 15 points in that same time. It is never good when the DOW is leading and the NASDAQ is lagging as that is the big money selling risk and parking the money in megacap, highly liquid, low beta names. When a market is this oversold and can’t bounce, it is a clear negative and shows equities are still not being supported. Until I see other evidence, it is wise to kick back and not press the issue.

The NASDAQ has been sitting below the all-important, longer-term 200 day moving average. The same for the NDX. The best news is all other major indices are sitting above…but showing no life.

Leading growth names continue to be bludgeoned…a very bad sign. It’s is not just APPLE but names like BIDU,PRICELINE and many others have broken badly. When leading growth names break, get out the umbrella.

The proprietary,over-the-top, in-depth, Kaltbaum indicator says only 25-30% of stocks are now healthy…either still in uptrends or trading above the 50 day moving average. If this doesn’t improve, markets cannot improve.

FINANCIALS still acting like it is 07…lagging when market was going up…leading down when market has corrected. This is happening while Bernanke continues to give them a gift of zero interest rates while screwing the savers.

Market is now not only headed for end of month, but end of quarter window dressing. Typically, the boys do everything they can to keep markets moving up and forestalling downside. Of course, this act of window dressing is illegal so it doesn’t happen.

Wish I had better to tell you. I am just a big believer in using the evidence at hand. We have yet to see anything resembling accumulation in the market. And if the DOW continues to lead and the NASDAQ continues to lag, it will only be a matter of time before another leg down occurs and my thoughts on a move down like last year’s 12-20% drop would come to fruition. Of course, there is a better chance of a full-blown bear this time as the market was much more along in its bull phase before topping out.

Lastly, I am constantly asked, “what if the Fed does QE3? Won’t the market just go up again? I am not sure this time. Remember, bulls are bulls and bears are bears. In bull markets, all news is good, whether good or bad. In bear markets, all news is bad, whether bad or good. Just looking for any light!

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

SAY HELLO TO THE BAD GUY!

It should now be obvious to you why I have been more cautious over the past few weeks. During that time, I outlined for you why I thought the market was in trouble. The simple fact is that every characteristic that usually show up near tops in the market…showed up. I outlined every single one for you. When these characteristics show up, it is time to keep an eye out for  trouble. All that has to happen is for negative price and volume to confirm. Subtle signs showed up weeks in advance. Please do not listen to those who say this recent drop came out of nowhere. So, since repetition is key in becoming successful at anything, here are those bearish characteristics that I told you about that would eventually come back to haunt the market.

FINANCIALS

I have been telling you that the big financials were acting like it was 07 all over again. They sit when the market goes up and they lead down when the market goes down. Quite amazing this is occurring while the fed is just handing money over to them. This is important. Financials have always been a key to the market.

MAJOR NEW HIGHS DIVERGENCE

Every time the market went to new highs, there were fewer and fewer stocks hitting new highs…indicating strength was narrowing.

DEFENSE LEADs

Speaking of leadership narrowing, over the past several weeks, we saw DRUGS,FOOD,BEVERAGES,

TOBACCO and UTILITIES lead. It is a classic sign of trouble when the most defensive of issues are being bought

LOW LEVELS OF CASH

Mutual funds are only holding 4% in cash…a very low level…providing very little ammo for the market.

OVER-THE-TOP BULLISH SENTIMENT

I noticed one pundit call for 2600 S&P by 2013. Another calling for 20,000 DOW within 18 months. These type of calls do not occur at the lows.

Many stock splits. Stock splits do not occur at lows. In fact, they occur at highs.

Many mergers. Again, mergers do not occur at lows. In fact, they occur at highs.

MARKETS like CHINA,BRAZIL and others entered their own bear phases before our markets.

A PLETHORA OF  IPOs AND SECONDARIES

This adds supply to the market but more importantly, another characteristic that does not show up at lows, but near the highs. To make matters worse, investment banks as usual, learned no lessons from the late 90s about bringing out companies public with $5-10 billion valuations that do not have even $100 million in sales and lose money. They get their fees. Investors get screwed.

SEMICONDUCTORS

Another important leading sector is the SEMIS. They have led the market for many years…both up and down. When they topped in March, I became worried. When they rolled over in mid-May, I became double worried.

Finally and most importantly, I have taught you that nothing bad happens when major indices are above the 50 day moving averages…and only bad happens when below. The final dagger occurred last Wednesday when markets dived below on volume. Since, nothing but distribution. On a daily basis, we are seeing weak closes, another important sign of a bear phase.

Do not get the urge to listen to the permabull Wall Streeters during bear phases. They will cost you a bundle. You will be hearing the terms OVERDONE,OVERREACTION,UNDERVALUED,CHEAP and all that crap. Be careful!

I am also amazed at the complacency i HAVE SEEN SO FAR.After stating my bearish stance on national Fox News tv a few weeks ago, I received a bunch of not only emails disagreeing with me but actual hate mail. People just never want to believe the market can go down.  As I stated numerous times in the last bear, there is no way of knowing when a bear phase will end but just like we know the characteristics that show up during a market top, we know the characteristics that show up during a market bottom. I do believe this market has a date with the 200 day moving average which  is only a couple percent lower. A break below the 200 day moving average and get the fork.. At this juncture, I am inclined to believe it will occur. And to answer the question on whether the market could have another flashcrash, I wouldn’t bet against anything as I do not believe the masses are prepared and I do believe the masses still have the buy the dip mentality.

On a short-term basis, major indices remain very stretched, expended and oversold to the downside. But again, oversold could stay oversold for a while. But I suspect the 200 day average could first provide the market with some sort of relief rally. Any rally should be sold as I BELIEVE THERE IS GOING TO BE MORE TIME AND PRICE IN THIS BEAR PHASE.

My last point is on the economy because many weeks ago, I told you and my listening audience I thought the economy had topped. Since and unfortunately, this has occurred. What did I see? Every quarter, I visit numerous retail outlets. Every quarter, I speak to select people in differing industries.  These are ordinary people either running or working at businesses. To a person, they all said that things had stalled…that there was no upward trajectory. I then heard the heads of Walmart and Target say that the consumer hit a wall. HINT: Never argue with what Walmart says. I love when a pundit says the news is just limited to Walmart. They only do $400 billion in sales. Why listen? The last and most important clue…commodities topped indicating demand was indeed softening. Weeks, later, all the worsening news started to come out.

My biggest worries are simple.

The Fed is out of ammo. They are already at zero percent. Yes, they can print more money but that only crushes the dollar, lifts commodities which in turn hurts the consumer. Crushing your own currency has never worked.

This administration is in dire need of watching the Seinfeld episode where Jerry told George that if every decision he has ever made was wrong, then doing the opposite must be right. Massive deficits, massive amounts of new regulations, threats of tax increases, demonization of almost every industry and a health care joke of a bill that does nothing more than add more costs to hiring…even though they say it will lower costs and lower the deficits. There is only one outcome from assinine policy…and we are seeing it. Obama is not dealing with a sluggish economy. He is causing a sluggish economy.

So I worry. As I wrote last time, it is only bad when markets go down. It is now bad. Markets are going down…and we may have only seen the beginning as the trust factor remains very low. Markets are quite smart in the long run.

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

IT’S ONLY BAD WHEN THE MARKET GOES DOWN!

About 6-8 weeks ago, I started to believe the economy was stalling out. A couple of weeks later, the commodity areas topped leading me to believe I was correct. Since, we have received nothing but worsening news on the economy…and may I say, the numbers may be worse than I even thought. This morning’s employment numbers were flat out horrid for this part of the cycle.

During this time, I have been telling you the internals of the market had topped leading me to write reports entitled “THE LEDGE!” I just did not believe markets could take too much more distribution without buckling into a bigger correction, akin to last year’s 12-20% downdraft. I stated this every day on my radio show as well as my Fox News and Fox Business appearances. Several times, the market held support. We then came into this week with a big gap to the upside and a good finish Tuesday. Well, that was nothing more than an end of month mark up as the market immediately was sold off. Futures are now way down this morning and we will once again get to see if the market gets defended. Needless to say, the worsening outlook trumped the falling dollar. As I have told you, the Fed has a weak dollar policy in order to bubble up assets. It has worked on the market but unfortunately, has had other repercussions.

The ledge is cracking…simple as that. The big big worry is that the FINANCIALS continue to act like they did in 07. I do not think it is ever good when FINANCIAL stocks are getting hammered. I want to stop it there on the markets. You have an idea what I am thinking. I would rather talk about my worries. I think there is so much bad out there that has been ignored because the markets have gone higher…thus the title of this missive.

HOUSING

I remember telling Neil Cavuto back in 06-07 that the bear market in housing would last a good 10 years. After all, the last bear lasted 10 years. The problem this time is that we are coming off the biggest housing and construction bubble in history…thus this one may take even longer. It does not help that the dimbulbs in Washington continue to come up with programs that do no good and only forestall the inevitable. Imagine, lowering principle and giving out taxpayer dollars to buy houses. Jefferson would have loved that.

DEFICITS

Where and how did we get to the point where a politician who wants to cut the deficits is called an extremist? How did we get here? I blame a lapdog mainstream media who call people racist, stupid extremists just because they disagree with an administration that has no intentions of doing anything about $14 trillion in debt…$5 trillion of that number because of this administration’s pen. Of course, I also blame most of the 535 politicians that have been in office and causing the deficits to swell. We all now know there has been no accountability in both parties. It has just been a cesspool of lobbying, cronyism, waste and everything else that goes along with it.

$800 BILLION DOWN THE DRAIN

That ridiculous spending program couldn’t stimulate a moose in heat. All stats bear this out. It is normal to have 5,6,7% GDP numbers coming out of recessions. We had one 5% number because of inventory build and nothing but lower numbers since. The spending did nothing to grow the economy and is now something that has to be paid back. It makes me ill every time Krugman opens his yapper saying we need more spending. Of course, when Bush was Pres, he said deficits will kill the country. He had it right the first time.

EMPLOYMENT…OR LACK OF

Why would anyone hire when they hear the President say he will raise taxes next go round? Why would anyone hire when they don”t know what the cost of hiring will be? Why would anyone have confidence in a healthcare bill when the Pres. lets all his buddies out of the bill? Why would anyone hire when they see that the regulatory books have gone up markedly? These are simple but important questions.

THE FED…OR SHALL I SAY THE KEYSTONE COPS

Let me get this straight. Let’s keep rates at zero so consumers get zero on their savings. Because you keep rates at zero, the dollar is squashed. Because the dollar is squashed, commodities soar…which in turn makes consumers pay more for everything. So…pay more for everything while receiving nothing on your money. Now that is a recipe’ for success.

GEITHNER

This guy is a Treasury Secretary? Let’s forget the fact Geithner was the man who was overseeing all of Wall Street before they imploded. Let’s forget his tax problems. That’s all in the past. What is not in the past is what this man said in the past couple of weeks about raising the debt ceiling. And I paraphrase…Mr. Geithner stated our standing in the world  and our debt rating would be better if we raised the debt ceiling. I repeat…this man believes more debt helps your debt rating. And you wonder why I am worried.

THE PRESIDENT

At the risk of being called a racist with the millions of others who believe government should be accountable and deficits lowered, this President is everything I was worried he was. He is a talker…he promises but does not  deliver. I could go through a litany of things but the short form is that he stated he was fiscally responsible, would not treat taxpayer dollars as monopoly money and believes in free enterprise. Unfortunately, he is the opposite. His policies are the opposite of what has made this country great. He is a big government politician, the biggest in history. I warned anyone who listened to beware of those who spend us into deficits and then come knocking at the taxpayer’s door. Well, we are there.

The bottom line is that there are not enough taxpayer dollars to cover all the wishes of these out of control spenders. They want to and have literally turned this country into a nanny state where half the country pays for the other half. The incentive is to stay out of work because they will take care of you (with taxpayer dollars) when the incentive should be to work. They have designed things to where they make enough people believe they can never get along without government largesse.

Well…all this largesse crowds out the real engine of the economy…private business. Capital is flowing away from the private sector into the government’s coffers…where they do one thing well…waste. It is not a reach to believe what I have been saying. All these over-the-top policies will eventually affect markets in a not-so-thrilling way. I stand by my mantra. If they don’t stop, eventually, the market will stop them. So far, none of this has been an issue because markets have gone up. It will be an issue if markets go down. THE LEDGE! I will have more on the market on Monday. I want to see how today finishes. I recognize the Fed is still out there with their funny money.

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

Current and Closed Trade Setups

[table id=4 /]

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

Example of how polls can be integrated into articles

[email_link]

This is why I like Bill O’Reilly. Pure logic…simple logic! I don’t know this Congressman…but here’s a guy with absolutely no logic. Imagine not wanting to report someone buying 60,000 rounds of ammunition! READ THIS AND WATCH THE VIDEO:

During Tuesday night’s edition of “The O’Reilly Factor,” the Fox News host got into a heated exchange with Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) over the concept of Congress passing legislation that the FBI would be notified whenever anyone purchases “heavy weapons.”

Bill O’Reilly said it makes sense for Congress “to pass a new law that requires the sale of all heavy weapons to be reported to the FBI. In this age of terrorism, that law is badly needed.”

Do you agree with Bill i.e that the sale of all heavy weapons to be reported to the FBI?

Continued

SOURCE: http://newsbusters.org

 

CHARTS OF CURRENT AND CLOSED TRADE SETUPS

SCROLL DOWN TO SEE CORRESPONDING CHARTS

[table id=4 /]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.