Government numbers showing the unemployment rate has fallen under 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years don’t reflect actual business conditions, venture capitalist Ken Langone said on CNBC.

Joining a heated debate over the state of the U.S. jobs picture, the Home Depot founder and Geeknet CEO said the most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report was probably inaccurate.

Langone defended former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, who caused a stir Friday morning when he charged on Twitter: “Unbelievable jobs numbers … these Chicago guys will do anything … can’t debate so change numbers.”


SOURCE: http://www.cnbc.com

kaltbaum premarket


S&P futures flat…NDX futures down a wee bit.
I want to clarify a couple of things.
Fact…5 distribution days on nyse and s&p. 3 on the nasdaq.
Distribution days do not have to kill markets but they are the sign that a market is tired and a market that can potentially get in trouble. But as of now, only seeing some pulling in. I am not necessarily bearish…just that when I do my scans, not finding bases…but finding stuff pulling in. So we wait. We will watch how an EBAY trades around its 50 day…as well as others. But more importantly, earnings come out on droves soon…so patience time. That’s all. If major indices get more distribution combined with a break of the 50 day/10 week, then we talk.



President Obama touted it in 2010 as evidence “manufacturing jobs are coming back to the United States,” but two years later, a Michigan hybrid battery plant built with $150 million in taxpayer funds is putting workers on furlough before a single battery has been produced.

Workers at the Compact Power manufacturing facilities in Holland, Mich., run by LG Chem, have been placed on rotating furloughs, working only three weeks per month based on lack of demand for lithium-ion cells.

The facility, which was opened in July 2010 with a groundbreaking attended by Obama, has yet to produce a single battery for the Chevrolet Volt, the troubled electric car from General Motors. The plant’s batteries also were intended to be used in Ford’s electric Focus.


SOURCE: http://www.foxnews.com

kaltbaum email

Nothing new. Crappy day with dow holding up best while aapl leads nasdaq/ndx down.
A few thousand earnings reports coming out over next 3 weeks…so probably best to sit. But if something shows up, I will be all over it. AMZN actually could set up for another add-on. Service is up $23 on it.
We sit and let leaders pull into new buy points.





In today’s market, nothing really stood out. There were some little pullbacks in Housing. Some pullbacks in Financials. There was strength today in the Metals and Mining despite the fact that the Euro was very weak. Oils were mixed but I do see a bunch of green there.

Just not the most important day in the market. Volume was ridiculously light.

Just remember we have JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting on Friday. Alcoa (AA) — whoopee doo — on Wednesday. Everybody keeps saying Alcoa is important – not really. Next week and for the next three weeks, thousands and thousands of companies will be reporting. That’s where you have to be on your game. We’ll be watching the reaction to the news, because it’s not the news, rather it’s how things react to the news.

There was an article today in the Wall Street Journal about earnings. The prediction is that the estimates are not going to be very good. But that could turn out to be a good thing, when expectations are on the low side. Any “beat” is a good thing and when you have the Fed printing $40 billion a month on top of Operation Twist and on top of zero percent interest rates – you get a market that seems to have a floor underneath it. And that’s really the story of the day.

The most important thing is that major averages, except for the transports remain above both and short-term and longer-term moving averages. Most important is the 50-day/10-week moving averages and as long as the major indices stay above that – good. Simple as that.

Just by the study of markets going back forever, the main constant of a bullish move in anything is that they stay above this ascending moving average. A break of this moving average to downside on heavy volume changes that playing field. In bullish moves typically, that moving average will contain all pullbacks and most often, when you look at the 50-day moving average stocks will pull back to it almost to the penny and bounce and get bought right off the continuing bullish move. And that’s why I mention it so often. And if you’re not sure what I’m talking about, go do a study of the biggest winning stocks. Just go back since 2000. You will see this one constant. And the other constant is the breaks occur when the stocks stop going on and start trading wide and loose up at the highs – and then break on volume and then all rallies after that break are into what now happens a flattened and then a declining 50-day moving average. And you will see in bearish phases how, so often to the penny, stocks rally into them and then fail and fade, heading deeper into the abyss.

So it’s very important you do some homework on that.

I went through 2000 of them this weekend. And this is not predicting. This is in the study of what works and what doesn’t work. It is these studies that give us a leg-up. It is the study of fear and greed in the market and where the big money crowd stands up to defend great stocks, as well as the market.

I hope you’re doing some work on it.

Apple (AAPL)

It’s a very important to recognize a few things. Apple, over the past few years has gone through multi-month ranges before moving out range again. I can tell you that it bottomed in 2009 after sitting between 80 and 100. It went up to 208 and that was in October 2009. It did not break out until March of 2010. Only rallied for about a month to 272 and that was in April of 2010. Did not break out for 6 months. Moved out again and then from October 2010, for about three months, sat.

It did not break out in earnest again until July 2011. Rallied up to almost 400 and then it sat around for another six months. And then it gapped on earnings, rallied and now basically it is where it was in April of this year. The high was 635 in April and today it closed at 638.

Got a bunch of phone calls and emails today, just about all asking the same thing. Most of the questions were, “Is there anything wrong?”

Well, the stock price is under distribution here. That’s what’s wrong. Let me put it in reporter’s terms.

  1. It has broken below the 10-week/50-day moving average with volume. This is the big money crowd getting rid of their stock.
  2. Is there anything wrong with the company? Well, they announced the iPhone 5 and came out with it. And I must tell you, from my experience, there are shortages. Now for me that’s not bad news because usually you fill shortages. I went this week and they were out of the black ones in a lot of areas in Florida. There other issue is the mapping software. The other issues is the Foxconn thing in China, where they went on strike due to work conditions. But for me that’s all noise.

The bottom line for me is that not much good can happen to a stock, if it’s trading below the 10-week/50-day moving average. Just keep in mind that on several occasions, Apple went below this area and sat around for weeks and sometimes months, it put in a new trading range and then turned back up again. I have no clue if that’s the case again.

All I can tell you is where it is, where it stands, it’s under distribution, and it’s affecting the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 on the downside a little bit here.

Earnings will dictate a lot of policy here. Last quarter’s earnings, they missed by a zillion miles. But the bet after that was, “Here comes iPhone 5” and I think stock rallied only on the iPhone 5 and now the question is, how big is going to be?

The stock cannot go higher until it gets back above the 10-week/50-day moving average, in earnest.

And that’s the best way I can explain it to you. 


6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.




A wireless company profiting from the so-called “Obama phone” giveaway program is run by a prominent Democratic donor whose wife has raised more than $1.5 million for the president since 2007.

Last week a video of a President Barack Obama supporter in Ohio claiming to have received a free phone from the president—“[Obama] gave us a phone!”—went viral, prompting media outlets to investigate.

Since 1985 the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has operated a program called Lifeline, originally designed to provide free landline phone service for low-income individuals. The government subsidizes telecommunications firms providing the service, and those firms also pass on costs to customers via the “Universal Service Charge” on their phone bills.


SOURCE: http://freebeacon.com



The World’s Largest Money-Laundering Machine: The Federal Reserve

The Fed policy’s first-order effect is to issue hundreds of billions in “free money” to banks; the second-order effect is to destroy the rule of law in the U.S.

Let’s start with a few questions about the proper role of the Central State and Central Bank: why should they bail out private banks? The answer boils down to something like this: “If the private banks absorbed the losses that are rightly theirs in a capitalist system, they would implode. Since the State and Central Bank have enabled these private banks to infiltrate and dominate the nation’s financial system, that system is now hostage to these private ‘too big to fail’ banks.”

In other words, “capitalism” in America now means socializing losses and privatizing profits generated by State and Central Bank intervention. Imagine for a moment the “beauty” of this system for owners of private banks: in a truly socialized banking system, the taxpayers would absorb any losses, but the State would also benefit from any future bank-sector profits. In the U.S. system, the losses are socialized but the people draw no benefit; the profits flow to the top 1/10th of 1% private financiers.


SOURCE: http://www.zerohedge.com



Abound Solar, a Department of Energy $400 million loan guarantee recipient that went bankrupt earlier this year, is under investigation by officials in Weld County, Colorado.

The company, which received nearly $70 million in loan funding before payments were cut off by DOE in 2011, also received a $100,000 tax break from the Colorado county in 2010. The county decided not to extend that offer when the company failed to achieve prescribed benchmarks for the tax break.

The county is also seeking nearly $2 million in unpaid property taxes from 2011 and 2012.


SOURCE: http://blog.heritage.org


Whenever there are hardly any long set-ups, it usually means time to correct a bit. Time will tell. Futures wacked today…no news except Europe down decently.
AAPL down another $7…which will not help the cause.
Otherwise, quiet week for earnings…and time to just sit for the second.

kaltbaum email weekend

Leading growth names…
AAPL- Under distribution and just under 50 day.
AMZN- Back up near highs…no issues.
ALXN- Only problem is that it is very extended.
BIIB- Holds 50 day despite downgrade.
EQIX- Still no issues at all…sitting on 21 day.
EXPE- Tried new highs but pulled in Friday.
EBAY- No issues.
GOOG- Very strong and very extended.
HD- Ridiculously strong but extended…just continues up.
KORS- Secondary still being worked off…forming base.
MA- Added to this list as it broke out on Thursday.
N- Also no issues.
SHW- No issues…no entry…THEY SELL PAINT!
SWI- Held 50 day but not thrilled.
UA- Not liking action and almost off this list.
ULTA- Forming handle on the weekly.
V- Broke out of short base on Monday.
WFM- Into new highs but no entry here.
TSCO broke out again so you could have added. The stock is up 10% from first buy point of 7 weeks ago.
EL just broke out and is working.
KORS still up almost 10% from buy point but that freakin secondary has held it back.
AMZN still up nicely from buy point…and acting fine.
AAPL…which was not put on the service but told you if you bought off 50 day, just sell breaking it…which it did…so no blood.
I dont have much to say about market as the Fed prints $40 billion/month to keep a floor under the market. But there is very little in the way of playable stuff. I must admit service should have played MA…and should have been mentioned.
We are watching ULTA,LULU and WFM here but no entries right now…so be patient as we head into earnings season. On the short side…yes on the short side, looking at names like CAT,BRCM,BBBY,PX,POT,PCLN,RHT.