I MAY HAVE TO SIGN OFF ON THIS ONE

A new White House petition wants President Obama to nationalize the “Twinkie industry,” saving the popular junk food from possible extinction.

“We the undersigned, hereby request Barack Obama to immediately Nationalize the Twinkie industry and prevent our nation from losing her sweet creamy center,” a petition on the White House “We the People” website requests.

Hostess Brands Inc. — maker of the Twinkie, the Ding Dong and Wonder Bread — is preparing to shutter operations amid a labor strike and rising costs. Unionized workers rejected a major pay and benefit cut, sparking the latest strike.

Labor leaders say the standoff represents “Bain-style” vulture capitalism — a reference to former GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s private equity firm.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.politico.com

HEADLINE THAT SPEAKER BOEHNER SAYS MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT WAS ‘CONSTRUCTIVE’

That’s the news that just came out. The DOW immediately rallied 100 points So instead of the market waiting on the Fed, the market now waits on a “solution” to the fiscal “stiff!” Just keep in mind, there isn’t any solution as all that will happen is taxes will go up and they will lie about spending cuts. Market was and is overdue to bounce…but when in no man’s land, you never know from where and when a bounce will come. One may be at hand. Keep in mind, in bear phases, bounces serve one purpose…to relieve oversold, stretched and extended conditions…until sellers show up again. The NASDAQ was amazingly at the lows today, almost 200 points BELOW the 200 day average. That is extended. Also…so far, bounces have lasted hours…not even days…which is the worst of all worlds for the bulls.

kaltbaum midday

Headline that Speaker Boehner says meeting with the President was ‘constructive’

 
That’s the news that just came out. The DOW immediately rallied 80 points So instead of the market waiting on the fed, the market now waits on a “solution” to the fiscall “stiff!” Just keep in mind, there isnt any solution as all that will happen is taxes will go up and they will lie about spending cuts. Market was and is overdue to bounce…but when in no man’s land, you never know from where and when a bounce will come. One may be at hand. Keep in mind, in bear phases, bounces serve one purpose…to relieve oversold, stretched and extended conditions…until sellers show up again. Also…so far, bounces have lasted hours…not even days…which is the worst of all worlds for the bulls. Will have a bigger report over the weekend.

kaltbaum pre market

Futures were flat until the White House said something about spending cuts…blah blah blah…and now futures up decently. Now…that’s funny. The new market “waiting with panting breath” is whether the “fiscal stiff” will get fixed. Maybe it is replacing Mr. Bubble and his pronouncements of more printing of money. In any case, there will be no spending cuts…just tax increases. We are screwed.
 
Markets remain in no man’s land and like a broken record, will tell you it can bounce at any moment. But any bounce is sellable and any bounce will be shortable as things rally back up INTO resistance and moving averages. Please notice 50 day moving averages are now rolling over.
 
So sit back, let the oversold conditions get relieved and unless there is a miracle where the market decides to turn up, we will attack when the oversold condition peters out. Again, if markets cannot rally despite, that means markets are at their most weak. That’s what happened at the 200 day for the S&P as it just sat there and then broke.
 
Options expiration today…which is meaningless to what we do. Slower week next week as market only open for 3.5 days.

AHHH..MR. BUBBLE IS RELENTLESS…TRYING TO STOP BLEEDING IN THE MARKET

I cannot wait until he either resigns or is fired. Enough with this “on-purpose” manipulation of markets. His only goal is for markets to go higher. I wish he would just shut the hell up. People being killed in bond funds past couple of weeks…brought to you by Mr. Bubble. Read this: 

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the Fed will use its policy tools to speed economic growth and a recovery in housing, which faces obstacles ranging from too-tight lending rules to racial discrimination.

“We will continue to use the policy tools that we have to help support economic recovery,” Bernanke said today according to remarks prepared for a speech in Atlanta, Georgia.

Continued

SOURCE:  http://www.bloomberg.com

AND WHO RUNS THIS?

The U.S. Postal Service said its net loss last year widened to $15.9 billion, more than the $15 billion it had projected, as mail volume continued to drop, falling 5 percent.

Without action by Congress, the service will run out of cash on Oct. 15, 2013, after it makes a required workers compensation payment to the U.S. Labor Department and before revenue typically jumps with holiday-season mailing, Chief Financial Officer Joe Corbett said today.

The service, whose fiscal year ends Sept. 30, lost $5.1 billion a year earlier. It announced the 2012 net loss at a meeting at its Washington headquarters.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.bloomberg.com

SURE…IT WON’T COST A THING!

President Obama’s election victory ensured his Affordable Care Act would remain the centerpiece of his first term in power – but that has left some business owners baulking at the extra cost Obamcare will bring.

Florida based restaurant boss John Metz, who runs approximately 40 Denny’s and owns the Hurricane Grill & Wings franchise has decided to offset that by adding a five percent surcharge to customers’ bills and will reduce his employees’ hours.

With Obamacare due to be fully implemented in January 2014, Metz has justified his move by claiming it is ‘the only alternative. I’ve got to pass on the cost to the customer.’

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.dailymail.co.uk

MARKET NO LIKEY THE CON GAME

“The sea was angry that day my friends, like an old man trying to send back soup at a deli”

George Costanza

To set the record straight, the market didn’t just top out in the past few days. The market had been topping out for weeks as more and more stocks and sectors started breaking down…as the leading indices, the NASDAQ and the NDX led down…as earnings and sales growth were anemic…as many glamour names were cracked…as more and more stocks “blew up” after reporting earnings…and just recently, as a few groups that were holding up, namely the FINANCIALS finally fell under the weight of the ugly.

To get the short term out of the way…markets are stretched, extended and oversold here. Put buying has spiked indicating finally, many are turning bearish. The permabears are now coming out of the woods. So…shorter term, a bounce is overdue…even a strong bounce. Keep in mind, a bounce does not have to happen and keep in mind, oversold can just become more oversold…and so far, bounces have last hours…not even days. But the norm is for the market to work off these conditions by bouncing, making people feel better…and then after the oversold conditions are relieved, the selling continues. But the important point is that the short term is the “trees”. The more important is the “forest” and that is the major breaks in the market. Every major index is now clearly below the all-important 200 day average. Volume has been heavy on the down days, light on the up days. Frankly, we can go on with the negatives but the main point, the market remains in a corrective mode and would not fight it…but shorter term, would not rule out a decent bounce. A lack of a bounce just tells you things are REALLY weak.

That leads us to the con game.

To be about as blunt as possible, we continue to be amazed at how this administration is getting away with getting others to perceive they have no fault in the fiscal situation this country is in. Ok…yes we do. It is the paws in the air, panting lapdogs of a con artist national media that has no use with the facts…just in the protecting of an administration…and it is sickening to watch.

We have told you for a few years that the con game was to spend us into oblivion first and then come for the money second. We have told you that massive government spending enabled by a maniacal fed, combined with the inevitable plea for higher taxes based on the “fair share” syndrome will only serve one purpose…and that is to put up massive headwinds in front of the economy and to block the ability of this economy to reach its full potential. The anemic economic numbers prove this all out and watch what happens if they get their tax policies passed. You are now seeing a doubling of the ‘ask” as proposed tax increases just went up 100%. On top of that…THERE WILL BE NO SPENDING CUTS! There will only be a cut in the rate of the growth in spending. This is the con game foisted upon us not just by this administration but by both parties. This administration has just perfected it. There is no tax problem in this country. Revenues into the treasury are back to almost all-time highs from 2007-08…but spending is up over $800 billion since 07-08…accounting for most of the yearly deficit. Of course, you can thank the Obama stimulus as it was just added to the other con game…baseline budgeting where the numbers never go down.

So…bottom line…there is nothing good about higher taxes and higher government spending. Telling the country you will cut $4 trillion in spending in the next decade but not noting that spending has already been marked automatically to go up over $10 trillion is the con game. Only in Washington is that called a cut.

We have told you we do not want to be in the market when it decides to ignore Mr. Bubble (Bernanke). We have told you that anti-business, higher tax policy would just taunt markets until markets finally pull out a certain finger and raise it into the air. Notwithstanding bounces, we think the reaction may just be at hand.

As usual, we have no clue how long a bear phase lasts or how deep it goes. We just know when we are in one…and just sit back and look for signs that the market is first defending itself and then shows the juice to make a big turn…and not just a bounce. Maybe Mr. Bubble will announce QE50…print $50 trillion and just buy up the whole S&P.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

OF COURSE HE IS TO BLAME…BUT OF COURSE…NO REPERCUSSIONS

WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) – MF Global’s collapse and the loss of an estimated $1.6 billion in customer money was triggered by former CEO Jon Corzine’s poor management decisions and lax protections for customer funds, a congressional investigation has determined.

The findings of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight will be spelled out in a report to be released on Thursday.

In a preview of the report, the panel’s chairman, Rep. Randy Neugebauer, said on Wednesday the evidence unearthed by the committee puts the blame squarely on Corzine, who has denied any wrongdoing. 

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.huffingtonpost.com

kaltbaum premarket

Just finished scanning. No man’s land became bigger no man’s land…very stretched and extended to the downside in the near term. Longer term, I suspect we are in a bear market…but will always let the market tell me when changes occur.
 
For the longs, there is really nothing to do. For the shorts, it continues to be damn if you do…damn if you dont. If you short, you will get the big short covering bounce. If you dont short, it just keeps going lower.
 
The service has played this top well. The service went light and got out. It is now just a matter of shorting bounces which obviously has not happened yet. I will keep repeating the mantra. Be happy you are in cash and be patient as short selling opportunities will show up, They always do…but they are on the bounces.
 
I am traveling tonight…so report will be very late…unless the airplane has internet.