All you need to know is that SEMIS moving to highs…NASDAQ/NDX remain strong…growth completely ignoring any market weakness…REGIONAL BANKS (KRE) to new highs…bigger FINANCIALS not buckling. This all happening while so many other areas are in bad shape.

There is no chance of going back to the lows and no chance of a bear market IF this continues. Bear markets do not happen if FINANCIALS are holding up, SEMIS are in new high ground and growth is leading.

We heard  there was someone from a big firm calling for a 40% correction in the next couple of years. That’s not a correction. That is a blasting. Anything is possible but impossible unless these important areas break down. Ain’t happening yet.

And tariffs are getting watered down and will continue to be watered down.


The big news is that the Knicks are having another terrible year…ooops….that’s our sport’s report. The big news is that a guy named Gary is out at the White House. Futures are down but what’s 1% between friends.

Firstly, in a bull market, bad news is ignored. Right now, the bull market has been interrupted so perceived bad news is sold. Does not mean in time it doesn’t get going again but to repeat, we had 15 months without even a 3% correction. What you are seeing is normal as normal can be. Very often after big runs, markets will consolidate those gains for months, correcting in the teens before resolving itself to the upside. Of course, this can also resolve itself to the downside. Time will tell. How will we know? Simple…watch financials…watch AMZN…watch BA…watch NFLX….3 biggest leaders right now. Watch the NASDAQ and watch the NDX. Lastly, watch the SEMIS. These are the big leading areas. If they break, the market breaks. So far, nothing doing. If they break, do not think for a second that other areas will come to the rescue. If they break, party over. But again, nothing doing. In fact, these areas continue to show amazing strength.

Do realize that according to our rusty abacus, only about 37% of stocks are now in good shape with only a handful of sectors in uptrends. On top of that, there has been serious damage done to many foreign markets.

As far as Gary C, (not Gary K…I have hair) why is everyone so worried? He is just one person. So don’t sweat it. On top of that, in case you did not know, we have had tariffs before. The world did not end but tariffs do not work. Bush tried. Swing and a miss. Other presidents have tried. Didn’t change much. The worry about this administration is “overboard!” Will the Trumpster go overboard and do too much. The fact is every country is going to act in their own best interest, not ours. Already we are hearing about jeans, motorcycles and BOURBON? Bourbon? They are going after bourbon.  The fact is no country likes the perception they are being bullied, true or not. We are not so sure this administration understands this.  The hard liners on trade have won. Let’s hope they know what the hell they are doing.

Markets…every time markets come down, the internals go south. Bearish markets occur when more and more names and more and more areas break support/moving averages. We repeat. Watch those areas we previously mentioned. The market will not hold up if they go south.  Watch the recent lows of March 2. A break below and we are headed towards the low of February 9. Those levels are NASDAQ  7084, NDX 6645, S&P 2647, DOW 24217.


What? You never see a Dow down 150, only to finish up over 300? Seems the norm right now.

Here is what matters!


GLAMOUR GROWTH still acting strong measured by NASDAQ/NDX.

SEMIS strong.

FINANCIALS, especially SMALLER/REGIONALS strong. BAC and JPM holding the 50 day.

We do not need to talk about any other areas. There is simply no chance of going into a bear market until or unless these areas crack…and right now, even with the recent overall weakness, not only are they not cracking but many are thriving.  So forget all the noise about tariffs, taxes, debt, deficits. Everything is great as long as the market is not going down.

Just remember, over 60% of the stocks we scan are in poor shape. Europe (though bouncing) is in real poor shape…

Until otherwise notified, it’s still ping pong.



Pre market: Futures down decently as they have dropped in the past few minutes. This after a nice reversal to the upside Friday led by the glamour growth names and for a change, the small caps.


The NASDAQ/NDX/SOX all held the 50 day Friday. These are your leading areas. We are actually amazed there has not been more damage here but there have been plenty of times we have seen narrow in the big leaders. To be clear…IF THEY GET THESE AREAS, GET THE FORK!

All the other major indices are in what we call “no man’s land!” All sitting below shorter term resistance but above longer term support between the 50 day and the 200 day. But…leave no doubt, the complexion is much different. Anyone who thinks the market is just going to walk back up thinks the Knicks will win the NBA championship this year. But again, glamour growth like AMZN, NFLX and a decent amount of names are still in strong bull markets.

Smaller FINANCIALS are back above the 50 day (KRE, KBE). The bigger financials not as strong but important names BAC and JPM are now sitting on the all-important 50 day.

EUROPE acts terrible. Many other countries around the globe are under pressure. ASIA is now in trouble. JAPAN has been blasted but don’t worry. BOJ’s Kuroda, the king of easy money says they can ease further if need be. Of course, they still have negative rates and are still printing but that’s not enough.

Interest rate sensitive stuff remains in trouble but oversold. Notice yields have been actually coming down in recent days. This includes real estate, utilities and housing.

Don’t know what the deal is but recession-resistant stuff in their own private bear. Food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products.

Only about 40% (being kind) remain in good shape right now. Just a few weeks ago, this number was about 75%.

And tariffs. Nothing like being cursed out by the Trumpsters just because you say there is a better way. I actually agree with the president that trade needs to be addressed but painting everyone with the same brush doesn’t work. Do not forget that every country will act in their own self interests, not ours. Yes…we are the most important country around the globe and yes, a lot of countries cheat but again, taxing products will only hurt the economy. Remember, it is the consumer who pays the tariff. Get these country’s negotiators in a room and be the great negotiator you are President Trump and find a happy place.

Lastly, do not believe for a second the recent drubbing was only because of tariffs. The surprise tariff announcement came out almost 2 days after the market topped again….and remember, the market topped way back on January 29.


Hope you paid no attention to the Dow today. We knew something was up when the Dow was down 200 but the NASDAQ/NDX was turning green.

Today was a strong market day. Today was a strong reversal day…regardless of the DOW. The A/D on the NASDAQ is 20-8. Even the A/D on the NYSE is 17-11. On top of that, the Russell is up over 1.5%. The SOX is up over 1.5%. Add in glamour growth being very strong and you have another “A” low after a 1600 point DOW drop over past days. We also want to add the NASDAQ/NDX/SOX finishing above the 50 day.

We will have more over the weekend. Just know the boys defended very well today, albeit after a big drop.


With the DOW down 190, we noticed the NASDAQ-types coming on and thought a positive divergence was playing out. Anything can happen within the crazy days we have been seeing but the positive divergence is taking hold. The DOW is now only down 90 and the NASDAQ is up nicely with the RUSSELL (for a change) leading with a 1% gain. We suspect the market is putting in another “A” low today. After all, the DOW dropped 1600 points in the past 3+ days. THE NASDAQ/NDX/SEMIS continue to be the strongest areas. Of course, it is not even 1 pm but so far, so good.