RAISE RATES? WE STILL DOUBT IT!

We have been stating forever, both seriously and sarcastically, that the Fed would never raise rates. They have not let us down as they keep changing the bar and teasing away. Of course, this is all based on them being “data dependant” which simply means they have no clue what is going on but will let you know when it happens. Regardless of the masses saying that this time it is for real, we present you with some words and charts courtesy of Zerohedge. Hmmm!

SOURCE: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-01/ism-manufacturing-collapses-worst-june-2009-new-orders-prices-paid-plunge

Global stocks have declined in December just 5 times since 1988!

Just saying. In case you are bearish for December…careful. Of course,anything is possible.

It took 6 1/2 hours to be down what we were down yesterday. It took the first minute of futures opening yesterday to get it all back. Short anyone?

Futures up nicely this morning as we head into December. No changes from yesterday. Bearish areas were roughed up (retail,biotech…) while strongest areas pulled back. That will reverse itself on the open. (dont look for reasons)

The one area that is popping up on our screens is the OILS. Nothing to do just yet but noticing the stocks outperforming the commodity as bases form at the lows as well as some mid-level areas. This group is underowned and underloved. Again, nothing to do but on our screens for now.

End of Month!

Earnings stink…sales stink…debt exploding…commodities in a deflationary spiral…central banks print 15-20 trillion…0% rates everywhere…negative rates in many places…Europe about to ease again…China intervenes on every down day…the Giants stink…my pinched nerve in my neck hurts…the nutjobs are out telling us global warming…we mean climate change is the biggest threat to the world. All’s well!

As far as markets…rallies are narrow…on most days, new lows are higher than new highs…but the markets hang in there as many of the major indices are within a few percent of their highs…despite the narrowness.

We are at end of month and then December…where we are told markets have to go higher. Okee dokee. We are all for it.

Tomorrow…we will give you in-depth everything that is working in this market. Have a great day!

 

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

My staff and I want to wish each and every one of you a happy, healthy and safe Thanksgiving. Think about doing something for someone you need absolutely nothing from.

Gary Kaltbaum

Just remember, it is still a ridiculously narrow market.

In this holiday week, consider doing something for someone you need absolutely nothing from.

We just wanted to repeat what we wrote to you this weekend…and that is, in a nutshell, narrow markets are much more easily sold off than markets with strong representation. It is vital during these times that you stay as SECTOR and STOCK SPECIFIC as possible as there are still many bear markets underneath the surface of the stronger big cap indices.

Futures whacked this morning on blah blah blah. We suspect this has to do with all the divergences that are out there.

 

Shortened holiday week for markets!

 “WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAYS”

We would like to wish each and every one of you a safe, happy and healthy Thanksgiving holiday.

Tidbits:

Amazon and Google (we cannot call it Alphabet) have added approximately 460 points to the Nasdaq 100 this year. The index itself has gained about 420 points. If not for these two stocks, the index would be down. If you add in #3 and #4, Facebook and Netflix, we are then at a -5% for the index.

EVEN WITH THE RALLY UP IN THE BIG CAP INDICES: Interest rate sensitive areas like utilities, real estate and housing…gold/ silver, steel, aluminum, metals/ores, copper, coal,nickel, tin, fertilizers, rails, truckers, junk bonds, disk drives, drug stores. hospitals, managed care, biotech, media, hotels (even with a big buyout), a ton of retail especially department stores, restaurants, food, drugs, beverages, household products, insurance, construction equipment and machinery, casino and gaming, oils, natural gas AIN’T WORKING and in the case of commodities, just a big wow to the persistent bear market that continues. On top of that, small and mid caps continue to underperform.

We guarantee you Europe raises their amount of money printing in December. Markets are already reacting to Draghi’s telegraphing the move.

We have been telling you forever that Yellen would never raise rates. Up until now, she has not failed us. We are amazed that they have made the measly raising of rates from 0-1/4% to 1/4% into some kind of gargantuan event when it is absolutely meaningless in the scheme of things.  It makes us ill that markets and savers continue to be held hostage.

We know we sound a little bah humbug as we head into the holidays but we are just reporting to you the news. The fact is the rallies remain narrow. The fact is there are still more new yearly lows than new yearly highs on a daily basis. The fact is there still is not a lot of leadership. For sure, there are things working…just not a lot…and when markets are this narrow, if distribution shows up in a meaningful fashion, markets are easier to take down.

On top of those megacap tech/internet names, areas still acting well are:

Home improvement retail, home products, defense (markets like a good war), credit cards, a few airlines, oil refiners, alcoholic beverages…and not finding much more.

Keep in mind, we are told  the shortened Thanksgiving week is supposed to have a positive bias.

It’s Friday!

We are seeing another terror attack in Mali in where  124 guests and 13 staff are being held hostage. The terrorists yelled Allahu Akbar.

Futures are up on ECB’s Draghi announcing more printing of money. (($15-20 trillion not enough!)

On top of that, Nike announces a massive buyback (will account for 40 dow points) though they said they don’t have to do the buyback. Then why announce it?

Great week after a bad week…as the markets continue to run in place. The Russell is where it was Dec of 13…the same for the NYSE. Don’t get us started on the commodities.

We will have our usual award winning weekend report for you on Sunday.

And we forgot:

Don’t forget Defense stocks ripping to the upside off of France and Russia on the attack. Markets love a good war!

Getting dizzy yet?

Getting dizzy yet? Can’t blame you. One week, market acting like it will crash. Next week, acts like this week. Just keep your wits about you.

Many of the major indices remain locked in ranges going back quite a long time. This occurs because more than half the market remains yuck while the rest act fine. Since we have had to report often the bad news in the market, today, here is what continues to work:

While extended, the nifty-fiftyish names like AMZN,GOOG,FB continue to act fine. They certainly jerked them around a bit in the past week.

MA and V act fine with V having the better numbers and the stronger of the two.

Auto parts retail in AZO and ORLY still hanging in there though AAP went bye-bye.

A few AIRLINE names still acting fine.

Good reaction to HD numbers.

MSFT and their blah numbers were bought and still holding.

NFLX and its 50% drop in earnings actually sets up well.

MCD and its drop in sales is loved.

COST acts great while most of retail croaks.

GE…wow!

There are a few more things…just not a lot…and even the “big leaders” are not making much hay. We are in hopes the “seasonal” strength and holidays come into play so markets could have a good end of year move. Of course, the markets will decide this.

GOING AGAINST OBAMA: Top Dem breaks with president on ISIS being ‘contained’ @FoxNews

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/11/17/top-dem-breaks-with-obama-on-isis-being-contained/?intcmp=hpbt2