Our interview with Breitbart Radio!

SOURCE: http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/07/gary-kaltbaum-on-breitbart-news-radio-markets-are-crashing-as-fiscal-steroids-wear-off/

Our response to the President’s patting himself on the back on 4.9% unemployment rate!

“Mr. President…You Forgot To Mention A Few Things!”

By Gary Kaltbaum
garyk.com
@GaryKaltbaum
Fox News Business Contributor

While my President was out this week patting himself on the back and taking victory laps over the “supposed” 4.9% unemployment rate, he forget to mention a few important tidbits about what is really going on. We used to call them termites…the termites that were eating away at the economy because of foolish monetary policy by assinine central banks and even worse policy emanating out of this administration…but they are no longer just termites. The eating away of the economy has given rise to serious problems already front and center as well as the problems to come. But there was no mention of these FACTS by my President! It is simple! You cannot “easy money” your way to longer-term economic Shangri-la. You cannot tax and spend your way into a longer-term strong economy. You cannot create massive amounts of mandates, regulations, fees, fines and all that crap and turn it into longer-term strength that will feed on itself.

My President forgot to mention:

The labor participation rate has conveniently continued to crash since the administration took over enabling the unemployment rate to be lower than reality!

This administration and the economy has been the recipient of 0% rates since becoming President…the recipient of $4 trillion-plus of printed money here and depending on the abacus you are using, $15-20 trillion of printed money around the globe…leading to a responding market to all the printed money creating a faux wealth effect that now goes into reverse. Very simply, the easiest monetary policy in the history of time!

Deflation almost everywhere except for your healthcare premiums and deductibles.

GDP under 1%.

The Baltic Dry Index hitting another new all-time record low.

U.S. factory orders that have now dropped for 14 months in a row.

Orders for class 8 trucks (the big ones) declining a measly 48 percent from a year ago.

Junk bonds continuing to crash!.

The Restaurant Performance Index falling to the lowest level since 2008.

A major slowdown in rail traffic!

Corporate profit margins peaking during the third quarter of 2014 and heading lower since.
.
Food stamp beneficiaries…at or near all-time highs.

Homelessness…not good!.

Welfare spending…a measly $1 trillion/year through over 80 different federal programs.

Retail crashing:

Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores, including 154 inside the United States.

KMart is closing dozens of stores.

JC Penney shutting down almost 100 stores.

Macys shutting 36 stores.

The Gap closing 175 stores.

Aeropostale clsoing 84 stores.

Finish Line closing 150 stores.

Sears shutting 100s of stores.

Massive sales and earnings misses by Kohls, Bed Bath and Beyond, Best Buy, Ralph Lauren and many others. All this while oil prices have crashed.

And of course:

Creation of $8.4 trillion of new debt under your watch! That’s over and above the already assinine amounts of taxpayer dollars you receive. That’s after you saying you would go line by line through the budget to root out all the waste and stating you would cut deficits in half.

Despite you saying you lowered the deficit by 50%, you forget to mention it was you who inflated the deficit in the first place.

The CBO now says deficits are going to double to back over $1 trillion/year very soon…and total debt will head into the high $20s (trillion)!

Lastly…the markets. The markets, being a great forecaster of the future…well, let’s hope this time the markets are wrong!

Mr. President, we wish we could say you are leaving us with a rotting economy…but we are worried we are past the point of rotting as you leave this country much more in debt than when you came in. Anyone can become rich by getting an infinite amount of credit cards and maxing each one out before receiving the next one. It just never ends well. Someone always pays in the end!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks opened lower on but closed higher on Thursday as the US dollar continued to fall gold continued to bounce. Oil prices fell and closed lower on Thursday after encountering resistance near January’s high. More stocks gapped down after reporting lousy numbers. Shares of Ralph Lauren plunged over 20% after reporting a disappointing quarter. Shares of GoPro (GPRO) tanked over 7% after the company lowered their 2016 outlook. In Europe, Shares of Credit Suisse ($CS) plunged to the lowest level since 1991 after the bank posted its first full-year loss since 2008. Shares of Deutsche Bank ($DB) also plunged to the lowest level in over a decade and both stocks are trading below their 2008 lows! That’s with the European Central Bank printing billions of dollars every week to stimulate markets and their lackluster economy. 

Gary’s Thoughts: Mixed bag of slop with huge gaps to the downside in LNKD and DATA after the close. Does not thrill that big retail like LB,KSS,RL and others continue to implode. Even with some rotation today, we remain less than thrilled.

Central banks never stop!

“CENTRAL BANKS NEVER STOP!”

February 4,2016
By Gary Kaltbaum
garyk.com
@GaryKaltbaum
Fox News Business Contributor
We were thrilled when we heard there were no central bank meetings in February. We want these people to go away for an extended vacation. We actually emailed the Fed with the suggestion of only 4 Fed meetings each year. We heard nothing back. We wanted more quiet but looks like that is asking for too much. Japan starts it up with their not so surprising negative rates. Markets rallied for a day before again getting yonked. Remember, we are no longer in a bull market. But that was just the beginning as the maniacs are in full swing. Lo and behold, a dude named Dudley, one of our team came out and said the magic words:

“One thing I think we can say with more confidence is that financial conditions are considerably tighter than they were at the time of the December meeting, So if those financial conditions were to remain in place by the time we get to the March meeting, we would have to take that into consideration in terms of that monetary policy decision,” 

He then went on to say: 

Additional strength of the U.S. dollar could have “significant consequences” for the U.S. economy.

You all know what happened next! The dollar started breaking down as the bet easily now is to NOT raise rates! So:

Some important changes may be at hand:
The dollar is breaking down which (duh) means currencies against the dollar are breaking out.
IF the dollar continues to break down, this will help commodities (gold and gold stocks are already emerging) and could possibly help all the multinationals that have suffered under the weight of a strong dollar. Keep in mind, the dollar is not strong because we are strong. It is strong because others are so weak. We do not care to bet on why except the thought that there is no way Yellen will raise rates again any time soon.
So…markets got the bid yesterday off the early yuck. The NAS/NDX were being killed as glamour names of FB,GOOG and AMZN were being hit. Google gave back everything and lots more from the perceived good news of earnings.
Recent washout lows continue to hold but we remain less than thrilled. If the dollar continues to sink, we must watch for a “changing of the guard” as central banks are doing their best to jerk currencies and economies around. We have a strong opinion on these miscreants but would rather pay attention to the market…and right now, things starting again to act like jello moving on a shaking plate.
Ladies and gentlemen, these geniuses continue to ruin the integrity of markets. But now, it just looks like they are flailing away,trying to come up with anything, experimenting with anything, saying anything all in hopes of moving things the way they want. But the problem is THEY ARE THE PROBLEM….THEY ARE THE CAUSE OF THE PROBLEM YET THEY ARE THE ONES STILL MAKING DECISIONS ON HOW TO FIX THE PROBLEM THEY CREATED! It is simply a race to the bottom now and we have to sit there and take it as we have no say in the matter.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Stock futures are down before Thursday’s open. After falling over 11% on Monday and Tuesday Oil prices soared over 8% on Wednesday as the US dollar experienced a huge single day decline. The major averages remain in lousy shape and continue to go nowhere fast as they pause to digest last month’s steep decline.

Gary’s Thoughts: Central banks continue to interfere. Report to follow!

Ecoomic Data:

  • Chain Store Sales[Bullet
  • Eric Rosengren Speaks 2:15 AM ET
  • Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup Good Jobs Rate 8:30 AM ET
  • Rob Kaplan Speaks 8:30 AM ET
  • Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET
  • Loretta Mester Speaks 5:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • US dollar suffers huge single day decline.
      Gary’s Thoughts: Central banks!
    • Shkreli Lost $40M in his E-Trade Account
      Gary’s Thoughts: Assclown!
    • Buffalo Wild Wings Tumbles on Report of Illnesses in Kansas
      Gary’s Thoughts: Not the wings!

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Stock futures are up before Wednesday’s open. Oil prices fell over 10% on Monday and Tuesday. The major averages remain in lousy shape and continue to go nowhere fast as they pause to digest last month’s steep decline. In the short term, Gary called the low perfectly for you on Wednesday, Jan 20, 2016.

Gary’s Thoughts: Futures got a bid this morning when the nutcase from Japan siad they will do a lot more to stimulate…insert joke here.

Ecoomic Data:

  • Bank Reserve Settlement
  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
  • Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index 9:45 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Alphabet overtakes Apple and becomes the most valuable company
      Gary’s Thoughts: Will be that way for a while. 
    • Shkreli Says He Wishes He Could ‘Berate,’ ‘Insult’ Congress
      Gary’s Thoughts: How do you spell assclown?
    • China Has $23 Billion in Debt That Could Be Cut to Junk
      Gary’s Thoughts: Just the beginning. We have been warning you!

Short morning notes!

By Gary Kaltbaum
garyk.com
@GaryKaltbaum
Fox News Business Contributor6 coin tosses and 6 wins for Hillary? Hmmm! Cattle futures anyone?

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said overnight that the BoJ would do whatever it takes to fight deflationary forces in the Japanese economy. Really! 0% rates forever, the handing out of money, the buying up of markets with debt, the printing of money and the recent negative rates and Japan now says there’s a lot more aggressive things to do.

Yesterday was gross. Hey, we told you the bear market rally would be “jagged!” Let us just say yesterday’s high had better not be it for the bear market rally. After all, our studies have shown that bear market rallies last 4-10 weeks. So far, this one gets a “D!”And just a little lesson on markets. One of our most important rules for bear markets is : “IN BEAR MARKETS, BLOW-UPS HAPPEN MORE OFTEN!” Did you see Royal Caribbean yesterday? Integrated Device? Amazon? Simply put, these types of blow-ups occur much more in bear markets and we are getting more than a handful.

The lows of January 20th continue to hold. Thrilled?

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks fell on Tuesday, led lower by energy, industrial, and material stocks. Financial stocks also fell hard on Tuesday as sellers showed up and continued to relentless sell nearly every sector in the market. Oil prices fell hard on Tuesday and tanked over 11% in the past two trading days alone! That’s a very big decline for a major commodity like oil and tells you everything you need to know about the slowing economy.    

Gary’s Thoughts: If that’s the high of this nascent rally, then this market is in big big trouble. Bear market rallies are supposed to last 4-10 weeks. The lows s. I guess the market has that going for it.

Negative interest rates are next! Bank on it! You have to give the bank a toaster!

SOURCE: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/rates-less-than-zero-is-bank-stress-fed-wants-to-test-in-2016

The scam and the con called Bernie Sanders!

“THE SCAM AND THE CON CALLED BERNIE SANDERS!”
By Gary Kaltbaum
February 2, 2016

Bernie Sanders…Bernie Sanders is not funny. He is not to be applauded. He is not to be called uncle. Bernie Sanders is selling you a scam. He is selling you a call a con. He is selling you a lie. The scam, the con, the lie is that everything is rigged, everything is being stolen from you, that all wealth is being re-distributed to the wealthy and nobody can get ahead because of all this.

The fact is money is not being re- distributed to the wealthy. Most of the wealthy earn their money. It’s called planning! It’s called thinking! It’s called educating! It’s called time! It’s called sweat! It’s called toil! It’s called risk taking! It’s called failure! It’s called success! It’s called long days and long nights! It’s called growing! It’s called hiring! It’s called creating jobs! It’s called creating wealth. Bernie Sanders knows nothing of this because Bernie Sanders has never created $1 of wealth. Bernie Sanders has never created one job. Bernie Sanders has been living off the largesse of the taxpayer since the day he started whining, complaining and pissing all over those who have created all the wealth and jobs.

It’s the person who came up with the restaurant concept named Chipotle and started with one and turned it into over 1800 restaurants creating billions of wealth and thousands of jobs. It is Mark Zuckerberg who had an idea to get dates in college which started Facebook, creating billions of wealth and thousands of jobs. It’s Bernie Marcus and Arthur Blank who thought there was a better way to sell home improvement goods and started Home Depot, creating billions of wealth and thousands of jobs. It’s Michael Dell who started selling computers in a garage and then created billions of wealth and thousands of jobs. It’s Charles Schwab who saw prices could get lower on Wall Street and created billions of wealth and thousands of jobs. It’s Bill Gates…WELL, WE CAN GO ON AND ON! None of these people had anything re-distributed to them. THEY EARNED EVERY DIME! Bernie Sanders does not want you to know any of this.

Bernie Sanders could not tell you any of this because he will never be able to sell his lie. He cannot ever mention these people because it does not fit his template. The amazing part of all this is that the only re-distribution that is really going on is not to the wealthy but from the wealthy to the Bernie Sanders-types as government spending has doubled since Bill Clinton’s last budget. Yes…doubled. And for what? What are we getting for the money? Yet Bernie Sanders says it isn’t enough. It isn’t enough that our government cannot even balance their budget even though they will take in over $3 trillion of our money this year.

And how about Wall Street? According to Bernie, it is the land of evil, land of devils, land of crooks who are out to just rip you off. Well…when Bernie Sanders was born, the Dow was at 127. Yes…127! Wall Street and the markets have created trillions of wealth and millions of jobs. Wall Street has turned secretaries into millionaires…millionaires into billionaires and so on. Wall Street and the markets have spawned companies like Microsoft, Amgen, Facebook and all the amazing companies that have improved our lives through modern technology, through new medicines and great inventions. HOW TERRIBLE!
So memo to Bernie and more important to those young people that think he is the end-all, be-all:

Just wait to see what happens if Bernie Sanders ends up running this country. Try working your tail off. Try to become wealthy. Try to be a success. We know you want to. All of us want to be bigger, better, wealthier, healthier. At every step along the way, Bernie will be there. When you work your ass off for a few years to get the promotion, the raise or whether you grow your own company, watch what happens when you get that first big paycheck. It will not be there. The $10,000 check will be $4,000. The $20,000 paycheck will be $6,000. Try being a gargantuan success and get a $100,000 check…something you should be applauded for. Bernie will want to take $90,000 of that $100,000. Don’t believe us. Just check out any number of videos of where Bernie wants to go with your money…because you did not earn it. It was re-distributed to you.

Bernie Sanders will not harm the already wealthy. Well…maybe he will. What he will do is prevent all the millennials from becoming wealthy as he will strip away all incentive to be bigger, be better, be wealthier…because Bernie Sanders believes in one thing…his power and not yours. Millennials do not know it yet but it is them who Bernie Sanders will affect most negatively. To the millennials..Bernie Sanders is your worst enemy!

When socialism overtakes capitalism, you get Venezuela. When capitalism is gone, you get Cuba. Go vote for Bernie now!