The amazing and talented Mariam Pare paints David Bowie…by mouth!




The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Stock futures are down after Friday and Monday’s steep sell-off. Clearly, sellers remain in control of this market as the major indices continue to get smacked.  On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 broke below support of their bearish flag patterns we highlighted for you last week. These are very weak patterns and suggest lower prices will likely follow for the bear market we are seeing in stocks. Gary called the top perfectly for you in the latter half of 2015, helping you sidestep this year’s brutal sell off.

Gary’s Thoughts: We were actually hoping yesterday’s late rally could lead to some upside today. Nothing doing! Our big report explains it all. Lots of rot showing up around the globe.

Economic Data:

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • JOLTS 10:00 AM ET
  • Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Steep selling continues on Wall Street
      Gary’s Thoughts: Unabated right now!
    • Chipotle Closed Stores on Monday For Safety Measures. Company Starting Program to Help Farmers Ensure Safety of Food
      Gary’s Thoughts: They had better get a good hold of this because a next time will not be good!
    • Taiwan Quake Toll Climbs to 26 as Rescuers Search Rubble
      Gary’s Thoughts: Only prayers! 

Calling Kevin Bacon…’ALL IS WELL”

February 9,2016

By Gary Kaltbaum
Fox News Business Contributor

So…now we are hearing about global growth concerns. Thanks so much! The markets knew it a long while back.

For years, our number one motto has been “it’s never bad until the market says so.” We have had this motto because underneath the surface of a market going higher, it had been evident to us that the termites were eating away at the markets and the economy around the globe. It is not until the markets act up that there is trouble. Remember…Lehman, Bear Stearns, Merrill, Countrywide and the rest did not go out of business…the markets put them out of business! Who are these termites? It’s all the governments and central banks that believe you can grow your way out of trouble through more debt, more printing of money and now, negative rates. These people have continued to unabatedly interfere with free markets as well as the hard work of the citizenry. Throughout all this nonsense, we have simply posed the question to you dozens of times and that is “what is going to be the ultimate outcome of massive debt, massive leverage, the printing of money, 0% rates and now negative rates? You know what we thought the answer was going to be.

In case you did not know, nothing changed with Greece. They just cut another credit card to get them out of the news. Nothing changed here! They just printed $5 trillion, took rates to 0% and grew debt by another measly $8 trillion. Don’t worry! They got it covered! It’s never bad until the market says so! Well, markets are finally saying so. And frankly, we are not so sure these geniuses running governments and central banks can do anything about it now. You just can’t keep going deeper into negative rates…or maybe you could. You can’t keep printing money or maybe you could. You can’t keep going into more debt or maybe you could. The problem is that eventually, you get diminishing returns and those diminishing returns may just be at hand.
Tale of the tape:

Commodities crash.

Emerging markets plunge.

U.S. markets now plunge. (The NASDAQ is down almost 15% this year and it is early February!)

European sovereign risk soaring.

Markets no longer reacting well to all the easier money talk. Japan markets crushed after going negative rates!

Greek bond yields soaring. Remember Greece?

Credit spreads are blowing out.

Banking stocks both here and more around the globe whacked.

$7 trillion of debt now have negative rates.
We can go on but we know you are eating breakfast. Many are now agreeing with what we told you months ago and that markets were telegraphing not only slowdowns but downright recessions and our big worry remains…with so much leverage and debt again built up by the crazies and with rates already at 0% and a ton in the negative, what will these geniuses come up with next? We pray they do not come up with something new as anything they do will only exacerbate a situation that they created in the first place.

We constantly tell you we hope we will be wrong about all this but more evidence continues to come in that the can that was kicked down the road has no road left!

Keeping fingers crossed!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks fell hard on Monday but pared losses by the close. It was still an ugly day as many names were beaten up badly. The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 broke down below support of their bearish flag patterns (highlighted last week). The Small-Cap Russell 200 also broke below January’s low which is not ideal for the bulls. Oil prices fell over 3% on Monday and that continues to hurt sentiment. There was virtually no meaningful economic data on Monday from the U.S.

Gary’s Thoughts: After a 7.3% drop in the Nasdaq from Thursday’s high to today’s low, maybe…maybe that’s enough for this second…maybe. Remember, these wild swings do not change the big picture. More carnage in tech, growth and beta. Gold/silver another good day but overbought. Definite bullish patterns now in gold/silver…but only on pullbacks now.


By Gary Kaltbaum
Fox News Business Contributor
The tops of bull markets leading into bear markets go through several phases. There is the initial topping out of the prior bull market phase. As we have told you many times, this can last a long while as sector after sector, stock by stock, top out. The last legs of the topping out process has the market leadership getting narrower and narrower until under the weight of all of the weakness, the indices finally break. This leads to the first leg of the bear market. During this leg, there is disbelief. Many are still calling it just a correction of the prior bull but little do they know, the market is on borrowed time. The first leg’s ugly action finally ends and a bear market rally begins. It is at this point the masses breathe a big sigh of relief. All is well. But something goes awry. Instead of the rally continuing, heavy sellers show up again. But this is still not enough for the masses to believe markets are in big trouble. After all, during bull markets, vicious corrections are normal before the bull market continues higher.
But then the popular indices melt down. On top of that, the strongest and the most popular names of the previous bull market give way. It is at this point that the masses have a holy #%@% moment. It is at this point, all the pundits and strategists that had been fighting the nascent bear…now start to really worry. They start to “realize” something is amiss. We believe we may be at or near that inflection point…the realization phase!
On January 20th, we thought we had seen the start of another bear market rally. Bear market rallies usually last 4-10 weeks. But this latest rally has been anemic at best and looks short-lived. While the Dow and S&P are still above the Jan 20th lows as money has flowed into some of the worst areas of the market, the Nasdaq, Ndx and the Russell are already breaking down out of bearish flag action. The big leaders of last year (FANG anyone) are now being torn apart.
To be brief, we believe that soon you will be hearing most start to admit what we have been telling you since the topping phase and that is that we were going into and are into a bear market of consequence. It just took the major averages and now the glamour types to get hit to move us into that phase…and if the Dow and S&P now join the Nasdaq, Ndx and the Russell, look out below. And frankly, we are already in a look out below moment!
Lastly, we continue to believe some time during this year, Yellen and friends will have to turn tail. We are not so sure market will care any more.

Our interview with Breitbart Radio!


Our response to the President’s patting himself on the back on 4.9% unemployment rate!

“Mr. President…You Forgot To Mention A Few Things!”

By Gary Kaltbaum
Fox News Business Contributor

While my President was out this week patting himself on the back and taking victory laps over the “supposed” 4.9% unemployment rate, he forget to mention a few important tidbits about what is really going on. We used to call them termites…the termites that were eating away at the economy because of foolish monetary policy by assinine central banks and even worse policy emanating out of this administration…but they are no longer just termites. The eating away of the economy has given rise to serious problems already front and center as well as the problems to come. But there was no mention of these FACTS by my President! It is simple! You cannot “easy money” your way to longer-term economic Shangri-la. You cannot tax and spend your way into a longer-term strong economy. You cannot create massive amounts of mandates, regulations, fees, fines and all that crap and turn it into longer-term strength that will feed on itself.

My President forgot to mention:

The labor participation rate has conveniently continued to crash since the administration took over enabling the unemployment rate to be lower than reality!

This administration and the economy has been the recipient of 0% rates since becoming President…the recipient of $4 trillion-plus of printed money here and depending on the abacus you are using, $15-20 trillion of printed money around the globe…leading to a responding market to all the printed money creating a faux wealth effect that now goes into reverse. Very simply, the easiest monetary policy in the history of time!

Deflation almost everywhere except for your healthcare premiums and deductibles.

GDP under 1%.

The Baltic Dry Index hitting another new all-time record low.

U.S. factory orders that have now dropped for 14 months in a row.

Orders for class 8 trucks (the big ones) declining a measly 48 percent from a year ago.

Junk bonds continuing to crash!.

The Restaurant Performance Index falling to the lowest level since 2008.

A major slowdown in rail traffic!

Corporate profit margins peaking during the third quarter of 2014 and heading lower since.
Food stamp beneficiaries…at or near all-time highs.

Homelessness…not good!.

Welfare spending…a measly $1 trillion/year through over 80 different federal programs.

Retail crashing:

Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores, including 154 inside the United States.

KMart is closing dozens of stores.

JC Penney shutting down almost 100 stores.

Macys shutting 36 stores.

The Gap closing 175 stores.

Aeropostale clsoing 84 stores.

Finish Line closing 150 stores.

Sears shutting 100s of stores.

Massive sales and earnings misses by Kohls, Bed Bath and Beyond, Best Buy, Ralph Lauren and many others. All this while oil prices have crashed.

And of course:

Creation of $8.4 trillion of new debt under your watch! That’s over and above the already assinine amounts of taxpayer dollars you receive. That’s after you saying you would go line by line through the budget to root out all the waste and stating you would cut deficits in half.

Despite you saying you lowered the deficit by 50%, you forget to mention it was you who inflated the deficit in the first place.

The CBO now says deficits are going to double to back over $1 trillion/year very soon…and total debt will head into the high $20s (trillion)!

Lastly…the markets. The markets, being a great forecaster of the future…well, let’s hope this time the markets are wrong!

Mr. President, we wish we could say you are leaving us with a rotting economy…but we are worried we are past the point of rotting as you leave this country much more in debt than when you came in. Anyone can become rich by getting an infinite amount of credit cards and maxing each one out before receiving the next one. It just never ends well. Someone always pays in the end!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks opened lower on but closed higher on Thursday as the US dollar continued to fall gold continued to bounce. Oil prices fell and closed lower on Thursday after encountering resistance near January’s high. More stocks gapped down after reporting lousy numbers. Shares of Ralph Lauren plunged over 20% after reporting a disappointing quarter. Shares of GoPro (GPRO) tanked over 7% after the company lowered their 2016 outlook. In Europe, Shares of Credit Suisse ($CS) plunged to the lowest level since 1991 after the bank posted its first full-year loss since 2008. Shares of Deutsche Bank ($DB) also plunged to the lowest level in over a decade and both stocks are trading below their 2008 lows! That’s with the European Central Bank printing billions of dollars every week to stimulate markets and their lackluster economy. 

Gary’s Thoughts: Mixed bag of slop with huge gaps to the downside in LNKD and DATA after the close. Does not thrill that big retail like LB,KSS,RL and others continue to implode. Even with some rotation today, we remain less than thrilled.

Central banks never stop!


February 4,2016
By Gary Kaltbaum
Fox News Business Contributor
We were thrilled when we heard there were no central bank meetings in February. We want these people to go away for an extended vacation. We actually emailed the Fed with the suggestion of only 4 Fed meetings each year. We heard nothing back. We wanted more quiet but looks like that is asking for too much. Japan starts it up with their not so surprising negative rates. Markets rallied for a day before again getting yonked. Remember, we are no longer in a bull market. But that was just the beginning as the maniacs are in full swing. Lo and behold, a dude named Dudley, one of our team came out and said the magic words:

“One thing I think we can say with more confidence is that financial conditions are considerably tighter than they were at the time of the December meeting, So if those financial conditions were to remain in place by the time we get to the March meeting, we would have to take that into consideration in terms of that monetary policy decision,” 

He then went on to say: 

Additional strength of the U.S. dollar could have “significant consequences” for the U.S. economy.

You all know what happened next! The dollar started breaking down as the bet easily now is to NOT raise rates! So:

Some important changes may be at hand:
The dollar is breaking down which (duh) means currencies against the dollar are breaking out.
IF the dollar continues to break down, this will help commodities (gold and gold stocks are already emerging) and could possibly help all the multinationals that have suffered under the weight of a strong dollar. Keep in mind, the dollar is not strong because we are strong. It is strong because others are so weak. We do not care to bet on why except the thought that there is no way Yellen will raise rates again any time soon.
So…markets got the bid yesterday off the early yuck. The NAS/NDX were being killed as glamour names of FB,GOOG and AMZN were being hit. Google gave back everything and lots more from the perceived good news of earnings.
Recent washout lows continue to hold but we remain less than thrilled. If the dollar continues to sink, we must watch for a “changing of the guard” as central banks are doing their best to jerk currencies and economies around. We have a strong opinion on these miscreants but would rather pay attention to the market…and right now, things starting again to act like jello moving on a shaking plate.
Ladies and gentlemen, these geniuses continue to ruin the integrity of markets. But now, it just looks like they are flailing away,trying to come up with anything, experimenting with anything, saying anything all in hopes of moving things the way they want. But the problem is THEY ARE THE PROBLEM….THEY ARE THE CAUSE OF THE PROBLEM YET THEY ARE THE ONES STILL MAKING DECISIONS ON HOW TO FIX THE PROBLEM THEY CREATED! It is simply a race to the bottom now and we have to sit there and take it as we have no say in the matter.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Stock futures are down before Thursday’s open. After falling over 11% on Monday and Tuesday Oil prices soared over 8% on Wednesday as the US dollar experienced a huge single day decline. The major averages remain in lousy shape and continue to go nowhere fast as they pause to digest last month’s steep decline.

Gary’s Thoughts: Central banks continue to interfere. Report to follow!

Ecoomic Data:

  • Chain Store Sales[Bullet
  • Eric Rosengren Speaks 2:15 AM ET
  • Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup Good Jobs Rate 8:30 AM ET
  • Rob Kaplan Speaks 8:30 AM ET
  • Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET
  • Loretta Mester Speaks 5:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • US dollar suffers huge single day decline.
      Gary’s Thoughts: Central banks!
    • Shkreli Lost $40M in his E-Trade Account
      Gary’s Thoughts: Assclown!
    • Buffalo Wild Wings Tumbles on Report of Illnesses in Kansas
      Gary’s Thoughts: Not the wings!