First off, the NASDAQ,NDX and the mid-caps have cleanly broke above range. With Friday’s late move, the S&P and DOW have edged above range and even the small caps have edged above. The only major index to stay in range is the TRANSPORTS as higher oil has impacted a few names. These moves simply bring a good amount of names either breaking out or setting up to break out.We suspect a pullback could happen at any time but the improvement we are seeing should contain any downside.
For us, the most important part of the equation is the great action in growthland as many names have come to the fore in sectors like RETAIL, RESTAURANTS, TECH, MEDICAL and BIOTECH. We absolutely love markets when growth is leading.
Unless recent breakouts fail, we have very little to complain about.
But to cover the negative side:
Our thoughts on the interest-rate sensitive areas of the markets has not changed as we believe a decent top was put in place on Friday the 6th in bonds, utilities and reits.
We suspected there was a further move to the upside in the commodity complex…namely the down and out energy. This continued throughout the week but now it gets a little trickier as the moves start to get more random…and remains longer term bearish.
But clearly there has been improvement with the only thought here is maybe markets are due for some pulling in. A pullback here would be normal and just fine. And lastly, as we thought, Greece would get an extension of the extension as Europe cannot afford the massive writedowns and capital raise that would occur if Greece went bye bye. Longer term, the massive debt that is building across the globe will eventually come home to roost. It always does. But the massive printing of money and extensions just put off the inevitable.