The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are higher ahead of Thursday’s open as investors digest another volatile week on Wall Street. Stocks were quiet on Monday but rallied hard on Tuesday only to fall hard on Wednesday. The bulls are doing their best to defend the all-important 50 DMA line.

Gary’s Thoughts: After 200 up and 200 down, we jokingly stated yesterday not to worry, they will just gap it up tomorrow. As we write this, another gap to the upside. And George Zimmerman, you are an unimaginable a–hole!

Economic Data:

  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Loretta Mester Speaks 11:00 AM ET
  • Eric Rosengren Speaks 11:45 AM ET
  • Esther George Speaks 2:15 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Trump and Ryan Are Going To Meet Later Today…
      Gary’s Thoughts: Make nice nice boys!
    • FBI Chief Comey Said He Feels Pressure to Do Clinton Probe Well
      Gary’s Thoughts: So put her in jail!

Phone Addiction!

We were sent the following study on smart phones. We disagree. We think it is much worse. Have you been in an elevator recently? Almost everyone is looking down at their phones or texting. Just check out the drivers on your highways. We have actually taken the time to check out other cars. We cannot begin to tell you how many are looking at their phones. Your kids? Their phone should just be attached to their body. Here you go!

1. The average smartphone user checks his or her phone 35 times a day.

2. Common Sense media just released a new survey that found that 50 percent of American teens admit that they “feel addicted” to their smartphones.

3. Close to 70 percent of parents and teens say that they have argued about smartphone usage.

4. 77 percent of parents say that “their teenagers were sometimes distracted by their phones or tablets during time spent together with family”.

5. Even though it is illegal in almost every state, 56 percent of parents confess that they check their mobile devices while driving.

6. 51 percent of teens admit that they have seen their parents check their smartphones while driving.

7. A different survey found that 75 percent of all smartphone users admit that they have texted while driving at least once.

8. 70 percent of smartphone users check their phones “within an hour of getting up”.

9. 56 percent of smartphone users check their phones “within an hour of going to sleep”.

10. 61 percent of smartphone users admit that “they regularly sleep with their cell or smartphone turned on under their pillow or next to their bed”.

11. 48 percent of smartphone users check their devices over the weekend.

12. 51 percent of smartphone users check their devices continuously during their vacations.

13. 44 percent of smartphone users admit that they would experience “a great deal of anxiety” if the phone went missing and they were unable to replace it for a week.

14. One survey discovered that the average cell phone user is on the device for 3 hours and 8 minutes a day.

15. A different survey found that the average cell phone user actually spends 3.6 hours a day using it.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are lower ahead of Wednesday’s open after the bulls showed up over the past few days and defended the all-important 50 DMA line… for now.

Gary’s Thoughts: The government crushed Office Depot and Staples’ shareholders as they are worried about a monopoly in office supplies. Really? That office supply business would be a killer. Don’t worry about all the airline mergers! Don’t worry about the biggest monopoly of them all…the Federal government. Don’t you just love people! 

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
  • Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Amazon Targets YouTube With New Online Video Posting Service
      Gary’s Thoughts: Amazon is a beast!
    • Bank of America: ‘Vortex of Negative Headlines’ to Send U.S. Stocks Plummeting
      Gary’s Thoughts: Hmmmmm! Buy?
    • Stocks bounce after Japan’s threatens to intervene in the currency market if the Yen continues to rally… They already own stocks so who knows if they don’t already intervene in the FX market.
      Gary’s Thoughts: Japan intervene? You mean 0% forever, printing of money forever and buying up your stock markets is not intervening?

Some random notes!

Random thoughts:

If things were turned around and it was Bernie Sanders that had all the super delegates but in recent weeks, Hillary Clinton was winning a ton of states, what do you think the media would be saying about the process in the Democratic primary? Rigged? Unfair? Skewed? Maybe we are nuts. Just seems the communist, we mean the socialist is winning a hell of a lot of states.

The infinite wisdom of a few in Washington crushed the shareholders of Office Depot and Staples this morning. Yup, they are worried about an office supply store monopoly. Don’t worry about them airlines! Don’t worry about the drug business. Of course, they do not worry about the biggest monopoly of them all, the Federal Government. Just squash the shareholders because the office supply business needs competition. We cannot buy our pencils at Wal Mart, Target, K Mart, supermarkets, on-line and every other store out there.

The support areas we outlined for you on the pullback held yesterday. Major indices and major areas like the financials held right where they needed to. But let us be clear…we are not sure there is enough juice to get this market really going. For sure, the Dow and S&P are close to their highs but small caps and other indices aren’t even close. But we are open to anything. Just pay attention to the lows of the past couple of days. If they hold, terrific. If they don’t, trouble.

Earnings growth still stinks. Revenue growth still stinks. GDP here and around the globe still stinks. Debt and deficits continue to skyrocket unabated…with no one doing anything about it. But the Mets are playing great ball!

Gary Kaltbaum

The Closing Look

Stocks rallied nicely on Tuesday after the bulls showed up and defended the 50 DMA line for many important areas of the market including the benchmark S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Overnight, stocks rallied after Japan said it will intervene in the currency market if the “one-sided” yen continues to rally. Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso told Reuters that Japan is ready to take action if the Yen’s rally continues and then hurts their economy.

Gary’s Thoughts:Good action off of moving averages…but range-bound we remain. Many areas including financials off of moving averages.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are higher ahead of Tuesday’s open as bulls try their best to defend the 50 DMA line.

Gary’s Thoughts: Market (especially financials) in that area that needs to hold. Suspect it holds for now. Easy money continues!

Economic Data:

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • JOLTS 10:00 AM ET
  • Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET
  • 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 3-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Elon Musk’s Tesla Strategy: Win Big by Falling Short
      Gary’s Thoughts: Huh?
    • A Slew of Commodities Fell Hard On Monday After China Reported Lousy Data
      Gary’s Thoughts: rIGGED!
    • Chris Christie Takes Broader Role in Trump Campaign
      Gary’s Thoughts: And we are supposed to be thrilled?

The Closing Look

Stocks ended mixed on Monday after a slew of commodity stocks fell hard as biotech and a few big cap tech stocks rallied.  Elsewhere, gold and silver fell hard as the hot money moved out of commodities and into beaten down areas of the market like biotechs. China’s stocks fell after the country reported a -10.9% decline in imports and a -1.8% decline in exports from the same period last year. The weaker than expected trade data bodes poorly for the global economy.

Gary’s Thoughts: Commodities continue the ugly off of their recent top. Many names mugged below support/moving averages. Not thrilled yet!



By Gary Kaltbaum
May 9, 2016
So the Donald may want to hike taxes. So the Donald floats higher taxes for the “privileged few!” And just what party is the Donald in?

Hey Donald, why? For what? You say you want to raise taxes? How about a reason? You see Donald, this federal government has more than enough money. This federal government has spent more than enough money. How about some facts Donald? How about some numbers Donald? We’ll give you a few.

In the last year of the Clinton administration, federal spending was $1.8 trillion. It has now more than doubled. Let us repeat, the amount of money that is spent by Washington DC has doubled since the last Clinton budget. Would you mind telling us where that doubling of government spending money is going? Would you mind telling us how the doubling of government spending is helping? Would you mind telling us what are we getting for our money? Where is the return on the taxpayer investment that has doubled in time? Did you know that this year the federal government received more money in one year than they’ve ever received in history? And they’re still running deficits. This is the people you would be sending the money to…people that cannot even balance their checkbook even though they are taking in massive amounts of the people’s money.

What have we got for the money? Poverty fixed? Nope…worse than ever. People off food stamps? Nope…more than ever. All the roads and bridges updated? Nope. We were lied to that this would be a priority. What about that 800 billion in extra spending the president foisted upon us? Wasn’t that supposed to be for infrastructure? What happened to the two words “shovel ready?” You know the only thing that was shoveled Donald?
How’s the economy? Hardly above flat line. In fact, the only thing keeping the economy afloat is the continuous assinine, assiten, asseleven central bank policy that has distorted everything in sight.
Donald, you tell us you’re a great businessman. Donald, you tell us you know numbers very well. How about those numbers?

The fact is Donald that every dime that goes into the inefficient and ineffective public sector comes from the very efficient and very effective private sector. Washington only lives and breathes because of the largesse of the private sector, not the other way around. Washington is supposed to work for us but instead, the public has become slaves to Washington. It is this transfer of wealth, it is this redistribution of wealth from the producers to the non-producers in Washington that continues to provide headwinds for this economy to grow. Yes…the biggest redistribution of wealth in history is not to the producers, it is FROM THE PRODUCERS into the coffers of again, the ineffective and inefficient blob called Washington DC…but you are considering taking more? Is it any wonder we are sitting at flat line growth and that is being nice? The fact is over $3.5 trillion is being transferred from the economy, the real economy to Washington DC. We thought you understood that. We are not so sure any more as you are talking about taking even more money out of the private sector and sticking it in the hands of sleazy, slimy politicians that have showed one thing and one thing only, an utter disdain for the tax payer.

Donald, you want to do something right? How about cutting the size of government first? How about downsizing the blob of Washington DC? And how about leaving the producers of the greatness of this country alone? Washington DC needs to show they have earned the right to more of our money. Washington DC needs to prove themselves first…not the other way around. If you continue to cut the size of the private sector and continue to grow the size of the public sector, there is only one outcome.

Donald…you have changed your stance on several things over the past few months. We, the people expect you to do the same on this suspect idea of higher taxes.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are higher ahead of Monday’s open after the bulls showed up and defended the 50 DMA line on Friday.

Gary’s Thoughts: Considering the Dax, not much higher…but things are not open yet.

Economic Data:

  • Charles Evans Speaks 5:10 AM ET
  • Labor Market Conditions Index 10:00 AM ET
  • TD Ameritrade IMX 12:30 PM ET
  • Neel Kashkari Speaks 1:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Another round of earnings will be released this week: Disney, Ralph Lauren, Nordstrom, Macy’s, Wendy’s, Nissan, Electronic Arts, Toyota, Allianz, just to name  few
      Gary’s Thoughts: But most of the biggies have reported.
    • The bulls showed up last week and defended the 50 DMA line for the many important areas in the market
      Gary’s Thoughts: It had better hold because we are seeing deterioration.


We thought the action around April 22 had the market putting in a high at that time. We think that high and subsequent drop was a little nastier than we thought. But…we also think Friday’s action could possible put in a near term low as the DOW and S&P held the 50 day…so far. Keep in mind, a break below will have negative implications. We’ll know soon enough. But based on a few important areas that are in trouble, we do not think any rally can carry too far. We suspect we will remain range-bound for this second. Those areas continue to be:
Retail…horror show with many important names at new yearly lows.
Biotech…never got going and have done nothing but head lower in past couple weeks.
Semis…broke badly recently. Maybe Friday’s action puts in a little low but lots of broken charts.
Financials…still can’t get going but also may have found some support Friday off the recent pullback. Regionals are sitting on the 50 day. They need to hold.
Blow-ups…have you seen all the recent earning’s blow-ups? And not just in names you know. Not sure this is great news.
Strongest area remains gold and more so, gold stocks. Keep in mind, if gold pulls back, the stocks should pull back harder.
Reits of all stripes now breaking out as IYR moves to new highs. This is a defensive area…but good for the dividend player…as long as they can continue to perform.
Wish we can tell you new yearly highs are plentiful but not happening yet. And frankly, it is mostly reits, muni bond funds, some utilities and not much after that.