The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks fell on Monday as concerns regarding the global economy resurfaced. Oil prices slid over 3% after jumping 9% last week. Meanwhile, Natural Gas prices vaulted nearly 10% on Monday as a cold weather is expected to hit most of the country. The fact that energy prices are trading like penny stocks (huge wild swings, up and down) bodes poorly for U.S. stocks. In the U.S., the Dallas Fed manufacturing index plunged to -20.1 in December, missing estimates for -6.0. That was the lowest reading since May’s -20.8, and the index has been in contraction territory all year thanks to the oil-related bear market and recession. The index has not been above zero since December 2014. In other news, distressed debt levels jumped to the highest level since the Great Recession. The number of companies with the lowest credit ratings and negative outlooks vaulted to 195 this month which is the highest level since March 2010.

Gary’s Thoughts: ‘t worry. Amazon and Google stock ready to break out again?

265 SQUARE FEET-$3,000/MONTH…NAH, THERE IS NO BUBBLE!

Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3375975/NYC-fit-micro-apartments-housing-picture.html

Not Much Has Changed!

We would love to give you some massive changes in market thought as we head into the last week of trading…but in bad English…we ain’t got none!

All that happened last week in the 3 day romp back up was that the worst areas of the market, which were ridiculously oversold, has a good rally/bounce. For instance, a PXD, which dropped to $114 from $145 in 4 days…rallied up 11 points. In fact, the whole energy complex had its best week in a while but that was after some serious nausea.

As far as leading areas, they just sat the week out. In fact, most of the most popular leading names have been in sitting mode for weeks. We wish we could go further than that but that’s it for now. We don’t have a clue if the boys try to jack things up again this week as volume should stay light. We just think the same problems that have kept the market from ramping are still out there…and that is most of the market remains in different stages of their own private bear while leadership remains narrow. We remain worried that narrow markets are easier to sell off and have both eyes wide open if the sellers show up. We suspect the market will tip its hand in the new year.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

As of this writing (6:15am), U.S. stock futures are down as we begin the final trading week of the year. Oil prices which jumped sharply last week are down again this morning and the media is suggesting that’s the reason our futures are down. Remember this is the last week of the year and volume tends to be anemic. Additionally, it is a seasonally strong period for stocks (that doesn’t mean stocks have to rally this week, just that they have an upward seasonal bias). Stocks will be open for a full day on Thursday (New Years Eve) and will be closed all day on Friday (New Years Day).

Gary’s Thoughts: Please read our short weekend notes. 

Economic Data:

  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 10:30 AM EST

Highlights Of The Day:

    • ‘Star Wars’ Poised to Set Mark for Fastest Film to $1 Billion
      Gary’s Thoughts: We actually thought it would be even higher but numbers are still humongous.
    • Severe Pollution Cancels 220 Beijing Flights
      Gary’s Thoughts: What should I do about my trip to Beijing in March?
    • More Bad News From China: China industrial profits fall for sixth straight month
      Gary’s Thoughts: As we have stated, we expect China numbers to continue to decrease.
    • U.S. retailers at risk of missing modest holiday sales goals
      Gary’s Thoughts: No one can spin anything resembling bullish thoughts on Retail this holiday season…and that’s with plunging oil. What’s up with that?
    • Amazon.com finally released numbers on it’s Prime service. The company said that over 3 million members joined the service in the third week of December, bringing its total membership to “tens of millions.” The stock $AMZN is one of the strongest stocks of 2015…
      Gary’s Thoughts: No one makes fun of Bezos any more!

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

As of this writing (6:05am), U.S. stock futures are relatively flat to slightly mixed as stocks pause to digest the week-long pre holiday bounce. Stocks are closing early on today (1pm EST) and will be closed on Friday for Christmas.

Gary’s Thoughts: Why is the market even open today? Why even have a half day? 

Economic Data:

  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • SIFMA Rec. Early Close 2:00 ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Investors Pull Out of Mutual Funds at the Fastest Rate in Two Years
      Gary’s Thoughts: Hmmm! Bullish?
    • Fitch Doubles Student-Debt Downgrade Estimate
      Gary’s Thoughts: When you give it away, it grows!
    • More bad news for Martin Shkreli: KaloBios, Formerly Run by Shkreli, Says Nasdaq to Delist Stock
      Gary’s Thoughts: Think 6 by 9!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks ended higher on Wednesday as investors digested a slew of economic data and the week-long pre-holiday rally continued. Durable goods orders were flat (unchanged) in November, beating estimates for a decline of -0.5%. U.S. personal income increased by 0.3% beating estimates for a gain of 0.2%. In the 12 months through November, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.4% after rising 0.2% in October. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.1% after being unchanged in October. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer spending grew by 0.3% last month after a flat reading in October. Consumer sentiment came in at 92.6, barely topping estimates for 92.0. Finally, new home sales came in 490k, missing the Street’s forecast for 503k. Energy and material stocks led the market higher as these two beaten down areas continue to bounce from deeply oversold levels.

Gary’s Thoughts: We cannot begin to tell you how surprised we are at this jam to the upside of everything that had been left for dead. We are not surprised market rallied. We are surprised at what rallied. Oils,machinery,industrials,commodities led the way. As we said, if they can prove that THE low is being put in, would be huge for broader market as we head into the end of the year but be forewarned, last year, the boys jammed the Dow 700 points in 2 days only to see it stall soonafter and then drop starting the first day of the New Year. We are open to anything. We rationalize nothing. Price matters no matter what day it is. So far, this is just a waaaaaay oversold move. No bases, nothing to play off of. Tomorrow a half day. See you in the A.M. 

WE ARE ALWAYS LOOKING FOR REASONS TO BE BULLISH!

This may sound crazy but we are always looking for a reason to be bullish. Our bullish or bearish stance comes from reading the tape, its patterns, its fear and greed. We are always looking for changes. We are looking for when the worst areas bottom and the best areas to top. But we need evidence. We need evidence in the form in movement (price) and conviction (volume).

After a nauseating drop into oversold land last week, with today, we now have 3 holiday week gaps to the upside this week.  We will let you infer what is going on. The boys do know when they can take advantage to get markets back up.

That said, something happened yesterday we have not seen in a while. The 70  percent of the market that has been horrid and has been DOA, led the market yesterday. We are hearing from some that this is a bearish occurrence. We are not so sure. If the worst areas of the market stop going down and can actually get going, what’s wrong with that? Keep in mind, volume is excruciatingly low, enabling the boys to move price easier.

One day does not change things especially in a shortened, light volume week. We do know that the boys jammed the Dow 700 points in 2 days last year in late December only to sell it off right after the end of the year. We will need to see follow through. We want to see follow through. We are all for changing our tune on the 70% of stocks and areas in bad shape. Stay tuned.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

As of this writing (6:25am), U.S. stock futures are up nicely for the 3rd day in a row. Stocks are closing early on Thursday (1pm EST) and will be closed on Friday for Christmas. On the earnings front, Nike ($NKE) reported numbers after Tuesday’s close and is up about 3% in the pre market.

Gary’s Thoughts:  This may sound crazy but we are always looking for a reason to be bullish. Our bullish or bearish stance comes from reading the tape, its patterns, its fear and greed. We are always looking for changes. We are looking for when the worst areas bottom and the best areas to top. But we need evidence. We need evidence in the form in movement (price) and conviction (volume).

After a nauseating drop into oversold land last week, with today, we now have 3 holiday week gaps to the upside this week.  We will let you infer what is going on. The boys do know when they can take advantage to get markets back up.

That said, something happened yesterday we have not seen in a while. The 70  percent of the market that has been horrid and has been DOA, led the market yesterday. We are hearing from some that this is a bearish occurrence. We are not so sure. If the worst areas of the market stop going down and can actually get going, what’s wrong with that? Keep in mind, volume is excruciatingly low, enabling the boys to move price easier. 


One day does not change things especially in a shortened, light volume week. We do know that the boys jammed the Dow 700 points in 2 days last year in late December only to sell it off right after the end of the year. We will need to see follow through. We want to see follow through. We are all for changing our tune on the 70% of stocks and areas in bad shape. Stay tuned.

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
  • Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET
  • New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
  • Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • OPEC Sees Demand Falling For The Rest Of The Decade For Crude
      Gary’s Thoughts: Sign of an oil bottom?
    • Martin Shkreli’s Successor at Turing Had His Own Issues in Past
      Gary’s Thoughts: Whoopdee-doo!
    • U.S. Signs up 8.2 Million People so Far for Insurance on HealthCare.gov, Missing Estimates
      Gary’s Thoughts: We want everyone to have health insurance. But not on everyone else’s back.

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks ended higher on Tuesday after the government said Q3 GDP rose by 2%, topping estimates for 1.9%. In other economic news, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales plunged -10.5% in November to an annualized rate of 4.760 million. This greatly missed the Street’s estimate for 5.32 million. Elsewhere, energy and material stocks bounced sharply from deeply oversold levels. Overall, the action on Wall Street remains less than thrilling.

Gary’s Thoughts:  Quite surprising that in this mark-up season, the worst areas, the weakest areas led the day. Cannot take too much out of it as volume remains weaker than weak and still, no leadership whatsoever.

GARY’S 2015 YEAR-IN-REVIEW WEBCAST!

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