GOING AGAINST OBAMA: Top Dem breaks with president on ISIS being ‘contained’ @FoxNews

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/11/17/top-dem-breaks-with-obama-on-isis-being-contained/?intcmp=hpbt2

Our Thanksgiving dinner tonight!

Today is the 13th annual (maybe 14th) Kaltbaum Family Blessings Banquet. Every year, we sponsor a Thanksgiving dinner in where over 400 youngsters from Central Florida who otherwise would not have a Thanksgiving  dinner, get served by us. There will be lots of food, lots more food, magicians, characters from Universal and other surprises. If you would like to volunteer, email me at gkaltbaum@kaltbaum.net and we will get back to you.

Apple added to a “conviction list!”

Futures up.

Not a lot of leadership.

And oh yeah, Fed minutes today where we get to find out what they thought a few weeks ago. Yippee!

Oversold gets bought!

The near-term oversold condition we wrote about yesterday has started to play itself out as just about everything rallies up after last week’s yonking.

The good news is that into the holiday season, there is a chance a higher low gets put in. The bad news is that there remains the clear lack of leadership that has haunted this market for a very long time.

We did like that some of the glamour growth names, after a few ugly, reversed up on volume yesterday. We did like that important areas like energy pulled right back into support and for now, held.

Hopefully, we can see a broadening out but hope does not work with markets. In time?

Chart Of The Day & The Biotech Bubble Continues Its Popping!

“MORE “NO SALES” BIOTECH CARNAGE”

By Gary Kaltbaum
@GaryKaltbaum
garyk.com
Fox News Business Contributor
We have written to you on several occasions about the impending disaster in the biotech space. It was a simple thought process. The wonderful human beings at the investment banks had done it again. Back in 99, they brought anything public that had .com attached. All you needed to do was have a website to be brought public. You know what the outcome was. Valuation ALWAYS EVENTUALLY matters.

Fast forward to the last 2 to 3 years. The same geniuses at the investment banks have brought over 200 biotech companies public that have no sales. We repeat NO SALES! When you have no sales and billions of market cap, there will be only one ultimate outcome. DISASTER! We have already seen dozens of names busted wide open. To be fair, we have actually seen a couple of names bought out for ridiculous prices but for the most part, we have seen nothing but downside.

And this morning:

Clovis Oncology (CLVS) closed at $99.43 on Friday. It is opening at $29.25. The story: approval of its rociletinib to treat non-small cell lung cancer will be delayed after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration requested more information…or something like that!

But the real story was before the open today, this stock, this company’s market cap was $3.8 billion WITH NO SALES! We repeat…WITH NO SALES! Not only were they able to do an IPO in 2011 at $13 but the bubble took the NO SALES company up over $100. On top of that, they had been able to do four secondary offerings. Our studies of bull and bear markets and our study of bubbles always finds areas that end up in “ridiculous valuation” territory. In 99, it was a lot noisier because internet names were glamorous. The biotech bubble is not as noisy but is and will be just as bad.

Word to the wise. There are many,many more names out there just like this. When bubbles pop, disaster occurs. We think this is just the start.

Paris…nous sommes avec vous!

“MARKET YONKING ON CUE”

By Gary Kaltbaum- November 16,2015
garyk.com
@GaryKaltbaum
Fox News Business Contributor

Paris…nous sommes avec vous!

We have been specifically telling you in the past week that the good low we called for on October 2nd and the ensuing rally was getting narrower and narrower. In fact, it was getting so narrow and suspect to our eye, we timely wrote to you last Sunday that: “It is the same type of tape we had before the market tanked in August.”

So…after last week’s dumping, where do we stand?

Our proprietary scan of thousands of stocks show only about 3 out of 10 stocks in good shape. This number never got to 5 out of 10…which is pathetic considering the NDX was in new high ground while the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ were knocking on the door. Again, it has mostly been a big cap affair as small and mid-caps and the average stock completely under-performed the indices.

45 new yearly highs…a whopping 440 new yearly lows. Again, pathetic and telling you how weak the market has been underneath the surface.

Groups in good technical shape…a handful. Groups in poor technical shape…the rest. This has been ongoing while the markets rallied up. In last Sunday’s report, we listed the numerous areas that were still bearish, leading us to believe there was trouble ahead.

The groups that had been holding up now look to have topped on a near-term basis. In fact, we believe the parked money that was selling everything to buy up Amazon, Google, Facebook and a few other “nifty fifty-types names may be over as those names got too extended and were distributed hard on Friday. They still do have strong relative strength but…

There is a lot more we can say as advance-decline figures continue to have a series of negative divergences, bullishness has picked up and flat out, most of the market didn’t come close to the major indices.

The transports remain weak…in spite of plunging oil. Commodities remain weak. The NYSE remains weak.

Short-term wiggles aside, this market is back on the defensive and would respect it. Big, broad tops take a long time and we may just be in one.

A few other notes:

For months, you have been told a rate hike was in the offing. For months, we have told you no. We continue with our stance, doubly so if markets head south.

Pay no attention to the masses that say the market has to go higher in November and December. We are well aware of seasonal strength. We’ll let the market decide. Even if we get some sort of central bank-induced rally, we continue to believe it will be narrow and more than likely, just be putting off the inevitable.

Speaking of central banks, while we do not believe Mrs. Bubble will raise rates, we are 100 percent sure that Europe will extend their money printing as well as ramp up even more money printing. Maybe this juices the market during the holidays.

SHORTER-TERM, markets are oversold. If markets open up badly tomorrow because of the terror attacks, we suspect a low can be put in within a day or two. But that will not and does not change the overall picture that we have laid out for you.

Narrow market gets narrower!

We will have our award winning weekend report for you on Sunday but for today, all we have to do is send you last weekend’s report. Remember, on October 2, we thought a good low was in but as the rally continued, the nasty narrowness showed up. Pay attention to the bold as all the poor sector action as well as the narrowness showed itself on cue.

From Sunday November 8th:

As the major indices continue to rally up into resistance and while the Nasdaq 100 moves into new high ground, this remains a very split tape. It is the same type of tape we had before the market tanked in August . Keep that in mind! We don’t have to pick it apart too much for you as it continues to remain what we call a tale of two cities. For starters, the large caps continue to outperform the small caps by the widest margin we have seen in a very long time.

And then you have the underneath the surface action.

On the good side, you have airlines (not all). You now have banks, regional banks and savings & loans. This came about Friday when the market decided long rates are going higher which expand their margins. Other areas in good shape are defense stocks, auto parts retail, internet retail, internet travel, oil refiners and the big cap glamour names in tech/internet. That’s about it which tells you the problem. There is just not enough leadership…and whatever leadership there is are the largest of the large cap that have a major influence on the indices…especially the Nasdaq 100 as names like Google, Amazon and a few others do the job.

Take a gander at this long list of areas that remain in poor shape. We are not making this up.

For starters interest rate sensitive areas like utilities, real estate and housing are all topped or topping out. This is occurring because the bond market (on the long end) looks to have topped out. Then you have gold/ silver, steel, junk bonds, rails, truckers, transports, farm machinery, disk drives, drug stores. hospitals, managed care, media, most commodities including steel, copper and aluminum, hotels, a ton of retail especially department stores, restaurants and just recently food, drugs, beverages, tobacco and household products, insurance, construction equipment and machinery, casino and gaming. Lastly, most oils, while rallying some, and turning a little bit of the corner…are still not leading. This just shows you what a big cap market this is underneath the surface. The good news is that the major indices continue to be strong. They will need to continue to be strong.”

The major indices could not stay strong. Under the weight of the damage, markets have been gagging all week. We’ll pick it apart much more over the weekend. We do have to make note that the retailers are acting like we are going into a recession…something to think about while the imbecilic Fed again teases the markets with their raising of rates a whopping 1/4 point.

Retail????? Hmmm!!!!

If the economy is so great…if the Fed was ready to raise rates…if everything was going so smoothly, then why so retail stocks continue to crumble. Just a question to ponder. I see KSS up a little bit this morning but that is after a huge drop. Just something to ponder.

Market is getting narrower and narrower again. Stay tuned.

Tomorrow, wait til you hear about my journey to Milwaukee for the Presidential debate!

Narrow rallies lead to…

Do not forget the Fox Business Network presidential debates tonight. The first debate moderated by Trish Regan and Sandra Smith. The second debate moderated by Neil Cavuto and Maria Bartiromo.

On purpose, we wrote to you yesterday about the narrowness of the rally. On purpose, we wrote to you that this narrowness is one that eventually caused the problems in August. But just because there is narrowness, it does not mean there is impending doom. The fact we had an icky down day yesterday just tells us that things are going to get tougher. We saw some leading names give back two weeks of gains in one day. We saw continued weakness in the areas we told you were not participating.

So its back to careful time here. We would throw in a dose of patience to see if this decides to worsen on this pullback. We do suspect, at the very least, we may get some time and price here. Pay attention to the long list of areas that we are bearish on as they will not get any better.

A Tale of Two Cities!

Do not forget the Fox Business Network’s presidential debate Tuesday night!

As the major indices continue to rally up into resistance and while the Nasdaq 100 moves into new high ground, this remains a very split tape. It is the same type of tape we had before the market tanked in August . Keep that in mind! We don’t have to pick it apart too much for you as it continues to remain what we call a tale of two cities. For starters, the large caps continue to outperform the small caps by the widest margin we have seen in a very long time.

And then you have the underneath the surface action.

On the good side, you have airlines (not all). You now have banks, regional banks and savings & loans. This came about Friday when the market decided long rates are going higher which expands their margins. Other areas in good shape are defense stocks, auto parts retail, internet retail, internet travel, oil refiners and the big cap glamour names in tech/internet. That’s about it which tells you the problem. There is just not enough leadership…and whatever leadership there is are the largest of the large cap that have a major influence on there indices…especially the Nasdaq 100 as names like Google, Amazon and a few others do the job.

Take a gander at this long list of areas that remain in poor shape. We are not making this up.

For starters interest rate sensitive areas like utilities, real estate and housing are all topped or topping out. This is occurring because the bond market (on the long end) looks to have topped out. Then you have gold/ silver, steel, junk bonds, rails, truckers, transports, farm machinery, disk drives, drug stores. hospitals, managed care, media, most commodities including steel, copper and aluminum, hotels, a ton of retail especially department stores, restaurants and just recently food, drugs, beverages, tobacco and household products, insurance, construction equipment and machinery, casino and gaming. Lastly, most oils, while rallying some, and turning a little bit of the corner…are still not leading. This  just shows you what a big cap market this is underneath the surface. The good news is that the major indices continue to be strong. They will need to continue to be strong.

OUR NEW TAMPA STATION- MoneyTalk 1010 – WHFS-AM

Investors Edge in now on a new Tampa station. We have moved from WHNZ AM 1250 to  MoneyTalk 1010 – WHFS-AM…same time. 6:00-7:00 Monday through Friday.