The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up on Wednesday as the market tries to bounce from deeply oversold levels. Keep in mind, the market is very oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015 and has nailed it again for you in 2016.

Gary’s Thoughts:  We are not just watchers of the markets but we are watchers of the masses. We watch how Wall Street reacts  to the markets. We watch how the average investor reacts to markets, especially the bad markets!

After 1,600 down points in 8 days, after a commodities crash, after retail, transports, small caps, mid caps, NYSE and so many other areas continue to get bludgeoned,  after world markets get blasted, NOW one firm sends out an analyst calling for a global crisis because of China. NOW another big firm comes out and advises clients to sell stocks on any bounce. NOW many other firms are coming out talking about $10 oil after missing the 60% drop. NOW another major company calls for a big bear market. HMMMMM! Must be time for a good rally.

As we told you, we thought we were a day or two away from a decent low. After all, don’t you think 1600 Dow points in 8 days should do the trick near-term? We think there is a good chance a near term low is now at hand. We have no clue about price or duration. The last rally/bounce had a duration of 10 weeks but kept getting narrower on the way up, leading us to tell you another top of importance was imminent. Rallies in bearish phases are supposed to wipe the smiles off the bear’s faces and embolden the bulls into believing the worst is over.  As of this second, the big picture has not changed. The near-term possibly has. As always, we will keep you informed. We will know a lot more based on how strong any rally/bounce is from here.

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • Eric Rosengren Speaks 7:45 AM ET
  • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Charles Evans Speaks 1:00 PM ET
  • 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
  • Beige Book 2:00 PM ET
  • Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • VW CEO Flubs Interview With Apology Tour Off To Rocky Start
      Gary’s Thoughts: How not to handle a crisis!
    • GM Faulty-Switch Trial Begins With Claim of Deadly Cover-Up
      Gary’s Thoughts: If true, send someone to a 6 by 9 cell.
    • It’s obvious Apple is working on a car: Elon Musk
      Gary’s Thoughts: Duh!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks ended higher after vacillating between positive and negative territory on Tuesday as oil prices traded all over the map. In the morning, oil prices up nicely but turned negative and actually fell below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years! Stocks turned higher after oil prices stopped falling. Stocks are trying to bounce from deeply oversold levels.The inability for stocks to bounce speaks volumes at how weak the market is right now.

Gary’s Thoughts: A long day of back and forth…big gap sold…market goes negative…ramps in last hour. We call it a huge, extreme oversold condition and expect more upside. How it gets there…how long it goes for? No clue. We also expect major action out of China to suppress selling…which may or may not help. 

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up on Tuesday as investors digest Monday’s wild up, down and then up again session. Keep in mind, the market is deeply oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015.

Gary’s Thoughts:  

We forgot to mention one thing yesterday. We do not think we have ever seen big down days on the day of the State of the Union speech but will have to look it up.
We told you yersterday we thought a good low is being carved out at Monday’s low…and today, we walk into a nice gap to the upside…yippee!
Yesterday’s reversal and today’s big gap insures a breather. After 1600 points down in 8 days, YOU HAVE TO GET A RALLY EVENTUALLY  and as we told you, it usually starts on a big gap. A strong Europe this morning leads the way.
We suspect a good low has been put in a for a while to make the bulls feel better and wipe the smiles off of the bear’s faces. Again, WE IN NO WAY THINK THIS CHANGES THE BIG PICTURE. Big rallies occur in bearish markets.
Lastly, earnings are straight away. For a change, ON A POSITIVE NOTE, earnings guidance has come down markedly so the game of “beat the number” could come easily. Whether or not that lights a fire under stocks, we shall see. Keep in mind, earnings growth stinks and as well as sales growth. For example, Apple’s growth last 4 quarters were +48, +40, +45 and +38. Estimates are now to be a whopping +5…a major deceleration. Even when accounting for the usual Apple sandbagging, it will still be a big drop in the growth rate.
Stay tuned. We suspect a lot of whippiness. (We are not sure what whippiness means but you get the picture). We will know a lot more as this rally/bounce plays out. 

Economic Data:

  • Stanley Fischer Speaks 5:30 AM ET
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • JOLTS 10:00 AM ET
  • Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 3:15 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Oil prices fell 6% on Monday and plunged to the lowest level since 2003!
      Gary’s Thoughts: Unreal…just unreal!
    • Hillary Clinton seeks surcharge tax on wealthiest tier of Americans
      Gary’s Thoughts: We have a lot of 4-letter words we can use when describing this person but will remain a gentlemen. There is never enough OF YOUR MONEY for people like this. We will leave it at that.

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks traded all over the map on Monday. Overnight, Chinese stocks plunged another 5% which was not idea. US stocks opened higher but quickly turned negative after new sellers showed up and distributed stock. Towards the close, a big rip enabled the Dow to finish positive but the Nasdaq still finished down. Crude oil plunged over 6% and hit the lowest level since 2003! Copper prices plunged to a fresh 6 year low which illustrates the market’s concern about weaker global demand. Biotech stocks ($IBB) fell over 4% and took out September’s 2015’s low which is not ideal for the bulls. In M&A news, Shire ($SHPG) said it will acquire drug maker Baxalta ($BXLT) for $32 billion in cash and stock.

Gary’s Thoughts: 

Put a crayon in your 3 year old’s hand. Let him scribble on a piece of paper. That’s what today’s intraday action looks like…but:
Since we received dozens of emails and phone calls, we wanted to give you some short term thoughts after Monday’s wild action. In fact at 3:18pm the NASDAQ was down at whopping 57 points by the close it was barely down!
In our long missive to you last night, we told you we would not be surprised by a vicious rally/bounce and that it would be normal to have one to wring out such an oversold condition. The hardest thing to do is to gauge and game the short-term movements but here we go.
We think a decent near-term low could be forming in and around the lows of Monday. This simply means after about 1600 DOW points in eight days, after the NASDAQ dropped from 5116 to 4573 in that same amount of time, sellers are washed out and buyers get a little bit of the upper hand. We suspect this is akin to what happened  on August 24 of 2015 when the markets experienced the fake open and the big washout.  Keep in mind, this in no way changes the overall big picture and you know what that is. Markets do not go straight down though after the past 8 days, one wonders if that is true. We will be smart and leave it at that.

We were asked if this has anything to do with Fed’s Lockhart’s flip-flop as he was quoted as saying there may not be enough fresh data on inflation to support an interest rate hike by March! We don’t know but just realize IT NEVER ENDS! THEY REF– USE TO LEAVE MARKETS ALONE!

 

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up on Monday as investors digest last week’s historic sell-off. The market is deeply oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015.

Gary’s Thoughts: Our measures of overbought/oversold are showing the most oversold conditions we have seen since near the lows in late Sept/early October. It is never a guarantee but these conditions always get worked off with time and price. Price moving up as days go by. THIS DOES NOT CHANGE THE BIG PICTURE. The Dow just dropped 1400 points in 7 days. This drop must be worked off. 

Economic Data:

  • 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
  • 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • Dennis Lockhart Speaks 12:40 PM ET
  • Rob Kaplan Speaks 7:50 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Powerball jackpot hits $1.3B, new world record
      Gary’s Thoughts: We are very surprised no one won in the last drawing. We expect 5-10 winners on the next one. Please be us! 
    • China forex regulator says will ramp up risk control efforts
      Gary’s Thoughts: How about all the regulators in China just getting the hell out of the business of rigging their markets. In fact, how about every government and regulator around the globe just going away and let the markets be.
    • 2016 brings more pain to U.S. shale companies as crude sinks
      Gary’s Thoughts: Unreal story of boom and bust. Never in our wildest did we think price would go so low…so quickly.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up a little ahead of Friday’s open and always fun jobs report. This has been a brutal week on Wall Street and the market is deeply oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015.

Gary’s Thoughts:  

Greetings from snowy, windy and freezing Denver. Hope you are well. We will have our usual award-winning market report for you over the weekend. As we write this, futures are up nicely as we await the fake job’s number.

Yesterday, we told you the market had to be a day or two away from a good bounce/rally. We suspect it is at hand but frankly, we don’t know if they sell this strong open or keep it going. We just know that the norm here would be a decent rally to work off some of the 1250 point Dow drop we just saw in only six days. It is very important to recognize the biggest up days markets experience occur during bear phases.

Keep in mind, while tons of stuff are down 20% plus, the S&P is not even down 10%from highs (bear phases are a minimum 20 percent). Keep in mind, the same strategists of the big firms who will never tell you it is a bear market until the 20% percent is hit are again out in force telling you this is just a blip and we are still in a bull market. Agenda anyone? If this is not a bear market, we hate to see what one looks like.This weekend, we will cover the fed, China, markets in-depth and also have some thoughts on what it is saying about the economy. We will also cover what this potentially means for the presidential election. Have a great weekend and be careful of “the bottom” calls on every up day.

Economic Data:

  • Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET
  • Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET
  • John Williams Speaks 11:30 AM ET
  • Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET
  • Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 1:00 PM ET
  • Consumer Credit 3:00 PM ET
  • Treasury STRIPS 3:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • China wants to devalue its currency even further to stimulate their economy. They doing a full court press to try and save their market from falling…
      Gary’s Thoughts: We thought China was doing so well. We think they may be in recession regardless of what they tell us.
    • Powerball jackpot hits $700M, largest US prize ever
      Gary’s Thoughts: If we win, we will be writing you from Bora Bora.
    • Tech start-up funding plunged in fourth quarter
      Gary’s Thoughts: oF COURSE IT HAS.
    • Copper Prices Slide to Lowest in Nearly Seven Years
      Gary’s Thoughts: Demand…yikes!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks fell hard again on Thursday after China’s stock market was halted for the second time this week. In early afternoon trade, Reuters reported that China’s central bank is under increasing pressure to let their currency (the yuan) fall sharply by as much as 10-15%. Earlier today, China also suspended their new circuit breakers that were introduced on Monday to stem the selling.

Gary’s Thoughts: Bounce attempt. Bounce failed. Will try again tomorrow. But leave no doubt, it’s getting ickier. Will have much more for you later tonight. 

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are plunging once again ahead of Thursday’s open. Overnight, China’s stocks plunged another 7% and were closed after circuit breakers were triggered for the second time this week. This clearly is not a good sign to see a major stock market in the world plunge and close twice in one week. Remember, stocks fell hard on Monday and Wednesday and are down substantially so far this week. Keep in mind we have the always-fun jobs report on Friday and the market remains “oversold” in the short term.

Gary’s Thoughts:  This bear market did not start this week. We have highlighted it for you for months. This is just the 30% holding up the indices finally gagging. Do not believe those who missed it all and now saying it’s becuase of China. 

Economic Data:

  • Chain Store Sales
  • Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup Good Jobs Rate  8:30 AM ET
  • Jeffrey Lacker Speaks  8:45 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index  9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Charles Evans Speaks 2:15 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • China’s stock market plunged 7% and were shut down after circuit breakers were triggered for the second time this week
      Gary’s Thoughts: As stated before, you cannot curb and restrict selling and expect good things.
    • Some Fed Members Saw December Rate Rise as ‘Close Call’
      Gary’s Thoughts: 
    • Netflix Launches in 130 New Countries in Major Expansion
      Gary’s Thoughts: Netflix on the moon soon.
    • Wal-Mart Workers on Pistol Patrol After Law Lets Texans Tote Guns
      Gary’s Thoughts: YIPPEE!
    • Amazon to Sell Its Own Brand of Chips Next to Wipes, USB Cables
      Gary’s Thoughts: Bet you cant eat just one.
    • UnitedHealth Says New York Obamacare Plans Could Be in Trouble
      Gary’s Thoughts: Obamacare is a scam, is a sham and sucks. Media refuse to report higher premiums, lower coverage, higher deductibles.

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks fell hard on Wednesday after oil slid to an 11-year low, gasoline futures plunged over 8% and the White House confirmed N. Korea most likely tested a Nuclear bomb. Economic data was mixed to mostly weaker than expected which echoes what Gar has been telling you for months – the market’s are forecasting a global recession.

Gary’s Thoughts: As I write this, China is again halted limit down.  Our futures feeling the effect…but that can change over night. I am afraid much of what I told you that I was worried about is coming to fruition. Meddling in markets is EVENTUALLY a bad thing. I have been using the words ULTIMATE OUTCOME…and not liking what that may be. You stop people from selling, it just creates more vicious selling. You rig markets. Eventually, markets stick the middle finger back at you. This may be a very big middle finger.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are down sharply (Dow futures are down over 250 points as of this writing) on Wednesday after oil plunged to an 11-year low and rumors spread that N. Korea conducted a nuclear test overnight. There’s a slew of economic data (below) being released today culminating with the Fed minutes being released at 2pm EST. Keep in mind, these are the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting when the Fed raised rates by a quarter point for the first rate hike since June 2006. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015. Leadership continues to get more and more “narrow” and most of the market remains in bad shape.

Gary’s Thoughts:  It’s a freaking bear market. Get used to it. In bear markets, surprises happen to the downside. In bear markets, bad news is no longer ignored.  We have told you in recent weeks that the bear market in stocks will become more apparent as the major indices play catch-up with the average stock. We told you we weren’t so worried about the December but were quite worried about January. So far, January sucks…and it was right out of the gate.

We can go on and on but we won’t. All we can tell you is that if this continues, you best not argue with it as most on Wall Street will tell you not to worry. If you want to know how we got here, just go back to Gary K.com and read all the reports of the past few months. This topping process has been classic as sector by sector, stock by stock, the markets internals went south. It’s now just a matter of the major indices catching up…which as we told you, has always happened at this juncture. As the rest of the market tops, relative strength can be seen in Food,drugs,beverages,alcohol,household products,water utilities, guns and defense as everyone likes a good war. These areas are screaming…and we mean SCREAMING RECESSION. The market is a lot smarter than all of us including Janet and the Fed who waited years to raise rates into this. Almost too funny…but is actually scary.

 

 

 

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
  • International Trade 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index 9:45 AM ET
  • Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • N. Korea conducted a Nuclear Test overnight
      Gary’s Thoughts: Not sure I believe this jsut yet but how did that Clinton agreement go? How about Obama’s agreement with Iran?
    • Deutsche Bank cuts U.S. GDP forecasts
      Gary’s Thoughts: DUH!
    • Apple Cuts IPhone Production by 30%: Nikkei
      Gary’s Thoughts: 
    • $3.8 trillion in M&A spending makes last year a record
      Gary’s Thoughts: Sign of a top.
    • Twitter Considers Higher Character Limit for Tweets
      Gary’s Thoughts: Don’t screw with a decent idea.