The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are relatively quiet ahead of Thursday’s open as investors digest the latest round of earnings data.

Gary’s Thoughts: After yesterday’s close, we reported to you that late in the day, gold and gold stocks petered out. The thought process was that the move had become tired. Never mind! Gold gapping up today as the dollar is again being whacked as central banks do not shut up. This morning, it is the ECB maniac! Gold and gold stocks remain bullish. The metal will be holding the 50 day at the open and be poised for another move up. The underlying stocks have beenn strong and remain strong. Futures up nominally…but selling nowhere to be found.

Economic Data:

  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 8:30 AM ET
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM ET
  • FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM EST

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Crude Oil broke out and hit a new 2016 high
      Gary’s Thoughts: Weak dollar…stronger commods. 
    • Steve Forbes sees ‘out of the box’ Trump VP pick
      Gary’s Thoughts: Pick me!

The Closing Look

On Tuesday, the market opened higher but sold off shortly after the open as a lot of money piled into commodity stocks as the US dollar fell. Crude oil broke out of its latest base and hit a fresh multi-month high. Silver soared over 4% and also vaulted to a fresh multi-month high. Netflix (NFLX), Illumina (ILMN) and International Business Machines Corp (IBM) all gapped down after reporting earnings. Goldman Sachs (GS) rallied even though they reported a big drop in earnings. Economic data failed to impress. Housing starts fell -8.8% to 1.089M, missing estimates for 1.167M.

Gary’s Thoughts: 2 thoughts…GS announces sales and earnings down 4-50% and is bought up…and COMMODITIES. Everything COMMODITIES. The opposite of the bear that went on from the middle of 2014 until early February. One more time…repeat after us…COMMODITIES.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are relatively quiet ahead of Wednesday’s open as investors digest the latest round of earnings data.

Gary’s Thoughts: We love quiet. Quiet is easier to measure than violent. Would love some quiet for a few days but doubt it. Mucho earnings to come out this week…so stay tuned. And we hear the maniacs (the fed) meets next week. Do they ever stop talking or meeting? Looks like Trump vs Hillary. This going to get good!

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • US Dollar Fell, Which Helped A Slew of Commodity stocks soar
      Gary’s Thoughts: They (central banks) figured it out. Dollar very oversold this second though.
    • EU Antitrust Body to Charge Google Over Phone Apps
      Gary’s Thoughts: Nothing will come of this. EU just trying to show they are alive!

STILL NO ISSUES

“STILL NO ISSUES!”

Gary Kaltbaum
April 19,2016
We continue to be asked  how can markets go up with earnings and sales going down. We repeat:
Since the lows, Europe has increased and extended the printing of money to 1 trillion/year. They have also stated they have more they can do…and are now buying up markets.

Japan has extended and added to their printing of money. They have also stated there was more they could do and continues to buy up its markets.

China has eased, eased, and eased more. China continues to buy up its markets.

The UK prints. Norway prints. Others print!

And just last week India, Indonesia, Turkey, Hungary and Taiwan all lowered rates.
And lastly, Yellen completely rolled back any chance of rate hikes and floated more printing of money here in the United States.
All this on top of the fact 0% rates pervades the globe and now, negative rates are becoming the new normal.
So…a quiet but coordinated worldwide effort to get asset prices going again is working again. Trillions of dollars into the system works.
Just a few tidbits on earnings:

Morgan Stanley earnings down 35…sales down 20%.
Citigroup earnings down 27…sales down 10%.
JP Morgan earnings down 15…sales down 2%.
Goldman earnings and sales way down.
Netflix earnings down 45%.
Blackrock earnings down 13…sales down 4%.
We could go on! Bottom line. EASY MONEY is again doing the trick. When we called for a good low back on Feb 11-12, we thought we would rally a few weeks and rally into resistance…but resistance is now slowly getting taken out. As we told you, everything that led the market down for 18 months was turning the corner. This included energy, steel, copper, aluminum, metals, mining, industrials, emerging markets and now this morning, Europe is moving above some important resistance.
Regardless of the news you continue to read. (You are now hearing GDP for QTR 1 will be near flat), this market continues to act well. As technicians first, watch the S&P and DOW here closely. A break above all time highs would be a big,long trading range breakout…and frankly, it would not be smart to fight it. We do suspect old high resistance could provide a fight but time will tell.
Gold and especially gold stocks continue to act well and now silver is coming on very quickly.
And lastly, a crapload more earnings to come out. Stay tuned but right now, looks like it does not matter. We do recognize the “sell in May and go away” period is coming up.

The Closing Look

Stocks rallied on Monday, led by a huge positive reversal in crude oil, after oil producers decided not to freeze production on Sunday. A slew of energy stocks surged on the news. Earnings news was mixed. Morgan Stanley ($MS) fell after reporting a lousy quarter. Elsewhere, Hasbro (HAS) enjoyed a huge breakaway gap after the company reported numbers. The toy maker enjoyed a healthy quarter largely due to strong sales from Disney’s toys ($DIS). Disney also rallied nicely and jumped to a three month high after being upgraded.

GARY’S TAKE: The market had every chance to sell off today. Not only did it not sell off but it flourished. We have very little in the way of complaints as more stocks set up, oils look ready for another leg up and all is well despite gross earnings. Just thank all the easy money. IBM,NFLX,ILMN will provide test tomorrow…maybe. Many more names to report.

 

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are higher ahead of Tuesday’s open as investors digest the latest round of earnings data. NFLX, ILMN and IBM are down after reporting earnings.

Gary’s Thoughts: Earnings crappy…futures up as metals,mining and all that stuff up again.

Economic Data:

  • Housing Starts
    8:30 AM ET
  • Redbook
    8:55 AM ET
  • 4-Week Bill Auction

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Aiming At Iran, Saudi Mixes Oil Policy With Politics
      Gary’s Thoughts: The sharks and the jets1
    • For Some States, UnitedHealth Exit from Obamacare Would Hurt
      Gary’s Thoughts: Obamacare hurts everything. Made no sense from the beginning. Premiums up…deductibles up…coverage down…but media says nothing. We blame the media.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are lower ahead of Monday’s open as investors digest last week’s rally and OPEC’s decision not to freeze production.

Gary’s Thoughts: Futures down but not as bad as last night. A sit back and watch day. MS earnings and sales were terrible but guess what? They beat the number. The stock is up a wee bit. Remember what we told you about how guidance came down markedly throughout the quarter.

Economic Data:

  • William Dudley Speaks 8:30 AM ET
  • Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET
  • Neel Kashkari Speaks 12:30 PM ET
  • Eric Rosengren Speaks 7:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Corporate tax dodging costs US $111B a year: Study
      Gary’s Thoughts: If it is legal… 
    • Two deadly quakes hit southern Japan
      Gary’s Thoughts: We love Japan. We wish all well. Same for Ecuador.

OPEC YIPPEEE!

Because of late breaking news, we are going to take an audible. The fact is large-cap indices have gotten back near their old highs. The central banks have done a great job of juicing the markets again. Since the lows, we have told you that all the areas that were leading the market down for 18 months were now leading the market up. Coming into the weekend, that had not changed as commodities, commodity types, commodity countries and the like have all had the bid.

But tonight, futures are down over 100 because OPEC could not come to any conclusion on slowing production in order to keep prices up. It used to be that markets would soar when oil prices went down. Now it is the opposite. Welcome to the asinine policies of central banks that has caused all kinds of distortion and turmoil with currencies and markets. Keep in mind, OPEC has nowhere near the influence they used to have.

So instead of going into a big dissertation, we would like to see how markets react tomorrow. We recognize that we are into massive overhead resistance while entering earnings season.

Keep in mind, even though you had decent action in the financials this past week, their earnings were terrible. The only reason why they were reported as a positive was because the stocks went up.

More tomorrow.

The Closing Look

Stocks drifted lower but were relatively quiet on Friday as investors digested a strong weekly gain. Overnight, China said its economy grew by +6.7% in the first quarter of 2016, which came in just below China’s goal of 7%. Oil prices slid ahead of Sunday’s OPEC meeting in Doha about a possible output freeze.

Gary’s Thoughts: Paint dring day. Nothing wrong with that. We will have our award winning technical report on the market over the weekend. Do not miss us on Fox News’ Bulls and Bears at 10 et Saturday morning. Have a great one.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are relatively quiet ahead of Thursday’s open as investors add to Tuesday and Wednesday’s strong rally.

Gary’s Thoughts: We repeat from last night: JP Morgan…earnings down 14%, revs down 2%…remember what we told you about everyone already knowing and reporting earnings will be bad. We must also add Steve Wynn just bought more stock…73,000 shares. This after we reported to you his massive buying in January and February. A CEO averaging up is normally a good sign. Rest of market has now edged above resistance we outlined for you. Let’s hope it holds as we continue into earning’s season. WFC and JPM are down a smidge this morning on their numbers.

Economic Data:

  • Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • Dennis Lockhart Speaks 10:00 AM ET
  • Jerome Powell Speaks 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Peabody’s Death Throes Threaten Beaten Down Coal and Oil/Gas Companies
      Gary’s Thoughts: Obama got the job done. He said he would put coal companies out of business and he did it.