The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks ended mixed after trading between positive and negative territory on Tuesday as the S&P 500 retested Aug’s low. Oil negatively reversed and closed down on the day which is not ideal. Overnight, China said its GDP grew by 6.9% for 2015 which was the slowest pace since 1990! Additionally, China said Q4 2015 GDP grew by 6.8% year-over-year which matched estimates. In the U.S., December retail sales grew by 11.1%. Meanwhile, industrial production rose by 5.9%. Both came in below estimates. In other news, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global economic growth forecast for 2016 on Tuesday. The IMF now believes the global economy will grow by 3.4% in 2016, lower than the last forecast of 3.6%. The fact that the market can’t bounce from these deeply oversold levels continues to show you how weak the market is right now.

Gary’s Thoughts:  We must tell you that even with the stretched, extended and oversold condition this market has…and even though a good bounce would be normal, so far, bounces have lasted a day and rolled over quickly. Due to the fact  Monday’s action was again very suspect underneath the surface of a Dow that was up, we are thinking price may just have to move lower to attract any buying of consequence. The big picture remains gross…and we are being nice.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stocks were closed on Monday in observance of the MLK holiday. Stock futures and oil are up nicely before Tuesday’s open. Overnight The People’s Bank of China set their currency (yuan) parity rate against the U.S. dollar to 6.5590. Since March 17, 2014, the yuan has been “allowed” to move 2% either side of the daily fixing against the dollar. In other news, China’s GDP fell to +6.8% which matched the Street’s estimate but was lower than the last reading of 6.9%. Stepping back the market remains very extended to the downside and it is way overdue to bounce from here. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015.

Gary’s Thoughts:  Counter trend rally in the makings. One has to happen…right? Last week’s bounces lasted a day. Also, massive amount of earnings the next 3 weeks. Pay attention!

Economic Data:

  • Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET
  • 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
  • 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • Treasury International Capital 4:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Another Debt Crisis Looming: Puerto Rico Says Shortfall to Increase to $23.9 Billion
      Gary’s Thoughts: They cannot possibly pay all the debt back.
    • Geopolitical Tensions Remain Elevated: Iran Captured U.S. Sailors at Gunpoint, Defense Department Finds and Prisoner Swap May Help Iran Arm Assad
      Gary’s Thoughts:  Such a deal!
    • Supply Glut Continues – Saudi Oil Exports Climb to Seven-Month High as Refineries Return
      Gary’s Thoughts:  Still amazed where oil sits.

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks fell hard on Friday as oil prices plunged nearly 5%. Stocks tried to bounce on Thursday but the fact that they can’t bounce from deeply oversold levels shows you how weak the market is right now. Stocks will be closed on Monday for the holiday but markets overseas will be open.

Gary’s Thoughts:  Yuck…but happy 3 day weekend!

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are down big on Friday giving back most Thursday’s strong upside reversal. Once again oil prices are tumbling and global markets are selling off. We have mentioned countless times that the market was deeply oversold and way over due to bounce. The inability to bounce speaks volumes to how weak the market is right now. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015 and has nailed it again for you in 2016.

Gary’s Thoughts:  “Bear market rallies are sharp, quick, make you feel good, suck you in and bury you soon after.” That’s our quote. But rallies are right now…ONLY LASTING A DAY before selling off sharply. Do we need to say this is the worst of all worlds for the bulls? Lastly, the esteemed Larry Fink of Blackrock said this morning that he doesn’t think this is a real bear market. With all due respect, either he is not telling the truth or he is living in Fantasy Land. If this is not a bear market, we hate to see what a bear market looks like.

Economic Data:

  • PPI-FD 8:30 AM ET
  • Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
  • Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET
  • William Dudley Speaks 9:00 AM ET
  • Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
  • Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET
  • Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET
  • John Williams Speaks 11:00 AM ET
  • Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET
  • Rob Kaplan Speaks 1:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • The oversold bounce we have told you about finally happened on Thursday and we’ll see if it continues…
      Gary’s Thoughts: Ain’t happening!
    • Fed’s Bullard Did a 180 and Said Oil’s Fall May Delay Inflation Return to 2%
      Gary’s Thoughts: Gee…had no idea the Fed would start their flip-flopping.
    • The 6th GOP was hosted by Fox Business on Thursday
      Gary’s Thoughts: Marvelous debate!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
The long over due bounce finally occurred on Thursday after the S&P 500 came in within a few points of “re-testing” August and September 2015’s low. All week, we have been telling you the market was very oversold and way overdue to bounce. That is exactly what happened on Thursday. The key now is to analyze the health of this bounce and see if it can last more than a few days.

Gary’s Thoughts: Best guess…think August 26th…more upside, back and fill, possible retest but think low is in for right now…but I do not think there is a ton of upside…but stretched, extended and oversold as all heck will now get worked off.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures were lower but turned higher before Thursday’s open as investors try to recover from Wednesday’s strong sell off. Keep in mind, the market is very oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point.  The fact that it refuses to bounce illustrates how weak the market is right now. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015 and has nailed it again for you in 2016.

Gary’s Thoughts:  Earning’s season is at hand. One has to think that maybe reactions would be better than usual after a 1600 point Dow drop in last than 2 weeks of trading. Markets are now overdue for some good bounces but could have said that 3 days ago. 

Economic Data:

  • James Bullard Speaks 8:15 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims  8:30 AM ET
  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Stocks Plunge On New Round of Selling On Wednesday
      Gary’s Thoughts: That was gross yet too complacent. Need some panic to end this deluge for now.
    • Sean Penn lied about ‘El Chapo’ trafficking claim: lawyer
      Gary’s Thoughts: Go back to bad movies!
    • Al Jazeera to cease U.S. operations by April end
      Gary’s Thoughts:  Who?

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks plunged on Wednesday as a new round of selling hit Wall Street. This time they went after almost all areas of the market including the big glamour names such as Amazon ($AMZN) and Netflix ($NFLX) that had been holding up rather well in late 2015. The fact that Wall Street can not bounce from deeply oversold levels clearly illustrates how weak the market is right now.

Gary’s Thoughts:  WOW! The bounce lasted a little over 1 day, was anemic and then slammed.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up on Wednesday as the market tries to bounce from deeply oversold levels. Keep in mind, the market is very oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015 and has nailed it again for you in 2016.

Gary’s Thoughts:  We are not just watchers of the markets but we are watchers of the masses. We watch how Wall Street reacts  to the markets. We watch how the average investor reacts to markets, especially the bad markets!

After 1,600 down points in 8 days, after a commodities crash, after retail, transports, small caps, mid caps, NYSE and so many other areas continue to get bludgeoned,  after world markets get blasted, NOW one firm sends out an analyst calling for a global crisis because of China. NOW another big firm comes out and advises clients to sell stocks on any bounce. NOW many other firms are coming out talking about $10 oil after missing the 60% drop. NOW another major company calls for a big bear market. HMMMMM! Must be time for a good rally.

As we told you, we thought we were a day or two away from a decent low. After all, don’t you think 1600 Dow points in 8 days should do the trick near-term? We think there is a good chance a near term low is now at hand. We have no clue about price or duration. The last rally/bounce had a duration of 10 weeks but kept getting narrower on the way up, leading us to tell you another top of importance was imminent. Rallies in bearish phases are supposed to wipe the smiles off the bear’s faces and embolden the bulls into believing the worst is over.  As of this second, the big picture has not changed. The near-term possibly has. As always, we will keep you informed. We will know a lot more based on how strong any rally/bounce is from here.

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • Eric Rosengren Speaks 7:45 AM ET
  • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Charles Evans Speaks 1:00 PM ET
  • 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
  • Beige Book 2:00 PM ET
  • Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • VW CEO Flubs Interview With Apology Tour Off To Rocky Start
      Gary’s Thoughts: How not to handle a crisis!
    • GM Faulty-Switch Trial Begins With Claim of Deadly Cover-Up
      Gary’s Thoughts: If true, send someone to a 6 by 9 cell.
    • It’s obvious Apple is working on a car: Elon Musk
      Gary’s Thoughts: Duh!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks ended higher after vacillating between positive and negative territory on Tuesday as oil prices traded all over the map. In the morning, oil prices up nicely but turned negative and actually fell below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years! Stocks turned higher after oil prices stopped falling. Stocks are trying to bounce from deeply oversold levels.The inability for stocks to bounce speaks volumes at how weak the market is right now.

Gary’s Thoughts: A long day of back and forth…big gap sold…market goes negative…ramps in last hour. We call it a huge, extreme oversold condition and expect more upside. How it gets there…how long it goes for? No clue. We also expect major action out of China to suppress selling…which may or may not help. 

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up on Tuesday as investors digest Monday’s wild up, down and then up again session. Keep in mind, the market is deeply oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015.

Gary’s Thoughts:  

We forgot to mention one thing yesterday. We do not think we have ever seen big down days on the day of the State of the Union speech but will have to look it up.
We told you yersterday we thought a good low is being carved out at Monday’s low…and today, we walk into a nice gap to the upside…yippee!
Yesterday’s reversal and today’s big gap insures a breather. After 1600 points down in 8 days, YOU HAVE TO GET A RALLY EVENTUALLY  and as we told you, it usually starts on a big gap. A strong Europe this morning leads the way.
We suspect a good low has been put in a for a while to make the bulls feel better and wipe the smiles off of the bear’s faces. Again, WE IN NO WAY THINK THIS CHANGES THE BIG PICTURE. Big rallies occur in bearish markets.
Lastly, earnings are straight away. For a change, ON A POSITIVE NOTE, earnings guidance has come down markedly so the game of “beat the number” could come easily. Whether or not that lights a fire under stocks, we shall see. Keep in mind, earnings growth stinks and as well as sales growth. For example, Apple’s growth last 4 quarters were +48, +40, +45 and +38. Estimates are now to be a whopping +5…a major deceleration. Even when accounting for the usual Apple sandbagging, it will still be a big drop in the growth rate.
Stay tuned. We suspect a lot of whippiness. (We are not sure what whippiness means but you get the picture). We will know a lot more as this rally/bounce plays out. 

Economic Data:

  • Stanley Fischer Speaks 5:30 AM ET
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • JOLTS 10:00 AM ET
  • Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 3:15 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Oil prices fell 6% on Monday and plunged to the lowest level since 2003!
      Gary’s Thoughts: Unreal…just unreal!
    • Hillary Clinton seeks surcharge tax on wealthiest tier of Americans
      Gary’s Thoughts: We have a lot of 4-letter words we can use when describing this person but will remain a gentlemen. There is never enough OF YOUR MONEY for people like this. We will leave it at that.