Did you know that San Francisco is becoming the first US city to require health warnings on ads for soda and other sugar-added drinks? What about Snickers bars, Hershey bars, every dessert at The Cheesecake Factory, Yodels, Hostess Twinklies, Red Vines, all non sugar-free gum, Twix, Reeses Peanut Butter Cups, Haagen Daas, the buffett at Wynn’s Las Vegas, Ghiradelli Chocolates (basically started in San Francisco), Dunkin Donuts, Krispy Kreme, Cinnabon, Hydrox (darn, they stopped making Hydrox), Oreos, Chips Ahoy, every breakfast cereal on the aisle, smores, Nilla Wafers, marshmallows, KitKat, Nestles Crunch, Almond Joy, Butterfinger, Mike &Ike, Milky Way, Good and Plenty, Skittles, Twizzlers, bananas foster, Rolos, Scooter Pies, Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Roll Pops, Dove Bars, Toblerone, Junior Mints (great Seinfeld episode), Famous Amos, Nutella, all non-sugar-free muffins, gummy bears, sour gummy bears, Jelly Belly, M&Ms, Hersheys Kisses, candy canes, Starburst, candy corn, candy dots, dipping dots, Now & Later, Charms, Three Musketeers, Life Savers, Sour Patch candy, Oh Henry, Chunky, Reeses Pieces…ok…as you can see, we overdid it but our bigger point is simple…the regulatory nutjobs continue to take over, picking and choosing friends and enemies. Where does it stop?
Did you know that now Wells Fargo is launching a 3% down payment mortgage to moderate and low-income buyers? What’s that line about repeating mistakes?
Did you know that a former Mcdonalds USA CEO said that $35,000 robots are cheaper than paying $15 an hour? This will surely end well. Remember what we have told you…when you mandate higher costs to business owners without commensurate productivity gains, they are going to react.
Did you know that The International Business Times reported that while Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton cleared arms deals with 20 foreign countries worth over $165 billion…WHO ALSO DONATED TO THE CLINTON FOUNDATION! Imagine if she was a Republican!
First off, we have one more stat about the “sell in May and go away” theory. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, over the last 65 years, the period from November to April gained 18,000 Dow points while the May through October period lost 1,000 points. Just saying!
We harken back to our first words from last week’s report:
“First off, this week is end of month (almost) and into a holiday weekend. Typically, typically, the bias is positive.” On top of that, we highlighted the SEMICONDUCTORS for you as that Friday showed them emerging.
The bias wasn’t just positive…it was damn positive…and it was led by the SEMICONDUCTORS. We are typically good at whining and complaining but after last week’s action, we do not have much to complain about…but am sure we will find something.
We start by saying just about all the major investment banks are bearish on the market. This normally happens after the market is already down 25% so the fact there is so much bearishness, gets us scratching our head.
There are two important parts of the equation, one good and one not so good. We now can pay attention to the highs of the loooong trading range that started in November of 2014. We know the real high was hit in May 2015 but for us, the range is longer. Let us be clear, in spite of debt, deficits, elections, terror attacks, Isis, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, earnings growth negative, sales growth negative and all that crap, if the range is taken out on the upside, it is best not to argue with it. Long range breakouts of major indices usually work for a time. Watch the S&P 2116 and the big enchilada at 2134. The Dow would be at 18,167 and much more importantly at 18,351.
The problem is other major indices are not even close, especially the NYSE and Russell 2000 so you are going to have to be area specific and stock specific. Any move above would not nearly as strong as the breakout in 2013. Just keep in mind, we are in no way predicting a breakout but pointing out we are getting closer.
The other problem is leadership. Even with this move higher, new yearly highs are still low, although improving. We suspect if major indices do go topside, more will show up but so far, nothing doing. If a June swoon decides to show up, watch the 50 day average at 2066 S&P and 17,737 Dow.
The big strength last week was indeed the Semiconductors. Big financials are also better. These are the two main areas we watch. We have told you for years that nothing bad happens if the semis and financials have a bid. Semis have had a huge bid…financials just recovering.