The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are lower ahead of Tuesday’s open as markets digest the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision to keep monetary policy unchanged and wait for the Fed to conclude its latest meeting on Wednesday.

Gary’s Thoughts: We came into the week thinking commodities could pull back and things need to slow down as we are waaaay overbought and into resistance. Tomorrow, we get Mrs. Bubble! We suspect they do nothing and say blah blah blah.

Economic Data:

  • 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
  • 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

  • Merkel Stands by Stance on Refugees After Losses in State Polls
    Gary’s Thoughts: We think Merkel could be in trouble.
  • Russia Says Iran May Join Oil Freeze After Boosting Output
    Gary’s Thoughts: Loweer oil has killed them. We are surprised they havent tried more to keep oil prices from going down.

Our comments on potential subprime auto problems!

SOURCE: http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/03/14/next-subprime-crisis-could-be-in-autos.html

Everything that wasn’t working…

Just remember, everything is fine as long as markets cooperate. Just remember, central banks are defending the markets because they are afraid of what the markets might do if they did not constantly interfere with their 0% rates, negative rates, printing of money and their outright buying of equities and now, Europe’s buying of corporates.
Just remember, there is a modus operandi. Market go down…ease more…market goes up. Market then goes down…ease more than the last…market goes up. Market then goes down…ease more than the last…market goes up….and recycle!  Just notice, markets are no longer going up like they used to. Right now, it is a recovery rally.  It should be obvious we have yet to get the “final nail” but leave no doubt, we have seen a ton of termites in many areas. Stay tuned.
On Feb 11-12, we told you another low was being put in. That low has now turned into a good low. On top of that, we recently told you we thought all the areas that led down for 18-plus months had finally tuned the corner. That continues also as oil, energy, steel, copper, aluminum, metals, mining, commodity countries, emerging markets and everything we told you we were bearish on over those 18-plus months are now turning up. So far, we have seen nothing to change that stance as the big money is showing up every day buying into these areas. Just remember and as we told you, these areas became about as unloved and under-owned as we have seen in a long while…thus the persistent buying so far.
Near term, markets are beyond overbought but the fact they could get that overbought is good thing. We would love to see a settling down but…next up…more central bank nonsense as we now chime in. Enjoy!

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are up nicely before Friday’s open after Thursday’s wild post ECB action. The ECB threw the kitchen sink, the drapes, the furniture, the pool, the acreage and everything else under the sun but stocks still sold off then ended flat in the US. Next week we have the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve so the Central Bank madness is not over. Gary has told you time and time again, the Markets will have the final word!

Gary’s Thoughts: Bottom line: take away these morons at central banks, take away the pundits, take away the noise and just look at the markets. For starters, and to repeat, it looks to us that all the areas that led down for 18 months…are now leading up. They all have bullish (for now) chart patterns off their lows and set up well. To repeat, energy, oil & gas, steel, copper, aluminum, commodities, commodity countries, metals/mining all working. As far as yesterday, that is the outcome of GRMs…(Government Run Markets) As of this writing, our market is back to the highs of yesterday on a (as Trump would say) huuuuge gap to the upside. Major indices have a chance to edge above a near term high here. Central banks just went deeper into their conjuring up of money, debt, deficits. This has been their moderus operandi since Bernanke stated this farce. Markets go down…print. They go up. They go down again…print more. Markets go up. Markets go down again. Print more…and so on. Where she stops? We once posed the question…why not just print $100 trillion? Is there really a difference when you are at these numbers? In case you don’t know…they are up to $20 trillion…and that’s on top of 0%, negative rates and the buying up of markets.

 

Economic Data:

  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ETBaker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

  • Apple Announces March 21 Event to Debut Updated Smaller iPhone
    Gary’s Thoughts: Let’s get this straight. They come out with a larger Iphone and now they come out with a smaller Iphone? Suckers! 

The Closing Look

It was a wild day in markets across the globe. Stocks opened higher but closed lower on Thursday in a classic case of buy the rumor and sell the news. Before Thursday’s open, the European Central Bank (ECB) fired another shot from their easy money bazooka. The ECB cut their benchmark interest rate to 0% from 0.05%. They also expanded QE (money printing) to 80 billion euros a month, up from 60B. The bank also cut their bank deposit rate further into negative territory taking it down to -0.4%, from -0.3%.The ECB also extended their QE program to March 2017, which is longer than the initial target of September 2016.

Gary’s Thoughts: Go to Universal in Orlando. Ride the Hulk roller coaster. That was today. See you tomorrow.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are up strong as the ECB throws in the kitchen sink, the drapes, the furniture, the pool, the acreage and everything else under the sun.

Gary’s Thoughts: This news is coming from a very overbought condition but that doesn’t matter. $1 trillion goes a long way. Keep in mind, this is in addition to many others printing, 0% rates and negative rates. The last time we got news like this from Bernanke, markets romped and stomped throughout 2013. Keep your wits about you and relax. If markets decide the same, it will show up. We will have further comments on these maniacal, insane, ridiculously stupid, experimental, detrimental interfering with free markets. The longer they pull this crap, the worse the final outcome will be as we promise you that when all is said and done…THE MARKETS WILL HAVE THE FINAL WORD! 

Economic Data: 

  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • Quarterly Services Survey 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

  • Another Health Scare At Chipotle
    Gary’s Thoughts: To our eye, the Chipotles that we visit are down up to 50% in business. They had better get theier act together.
  • Facebook Buys Masquerade to Challenge Snapchat
  • Gary’s Thoughts: Yippeee! Bring back Myspace!

Short note on Gold

One more note:
We forgot to mention that we believe Gold and gold stocks hit a near term top over the past 3 days as 2 of those days finished at the lows of the day off of very extended conditions to the upside. Pullbacks are normal from these conditions. Volume was heavy on the drops.

Short notes on markets and stuff!

Why is it when Republicans vote for somebody they are deemed to be angry but when Democrats vote for somebody they are deemed to be intellectual and reasoned? Just saying!
Also, needed to point out the establishment still does not get it. We still have a long way to go but the establishment had better realize it is still the people who do the voting. You can parade out anyone you want to say anything they want but the voting public matters most.
Back to the markets:
We are being bombarded with emails not asking…but telling us the bear market is about to show its ugly face again. Ok…we got you!
Our thoughts remain the same. We are in rally mode but are massively overbought. We are in rally mode but instead of the bears paraded out, the bulls are full of themselves again.  We are in the 4th week of rally mode.
Leave no doubt that commodities are driving the bus right now. Commodities up…markets up. Commodities down…markets down. Leave no doubt that the under-performance over the past 12-18 months of the small and mid-caps were directly because of commodities. It is no coincidence that small and mid-caps have been leading as commodities bottomed. Yesterday, commodities backed off hard…small and mid-caps backed off hard. We are perplexed that so many say oil and commodities are going to go right back to their lows and even more. Do they not think a 70%-plus drop in oil prices could be it for its bear market?
We believe it gets tougher here as major indices are up and into massive overhead resistance. Leadership remains defensive as the new yearly high list is small and is laden with utilities, food, beverages, tobacco and the like. The best of the move has been areas that had been trashed over the past 12-18 months.
Could the bear market, bear trend, bearish phase be over? Could our call on Feb 11-12 of a low be THE low? Anything is possible. Just remember, China is buying up their stock market, Japan is printing and promising more, Europe is printing and promising more, the UK is printing money, negative rates are becoming more common and 0% pervades the globe…and Sweden is even printing money. Easy money continues to slosh around…and when that continues, again, anything is possible. We are just comfortable in knowing our studies of turns in markets picked up on the extreme bearishness and the massively oversold conditions on Feb 11-12 and we now look for the next big clue! The last good rally back in October lasted about 4 weeks, topped out for a few more weeks leading to the next wrecking of the market. This time?
Gary Kaltbaum

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview: 

Futures are up ahead of Wednesday’s open as stocks try to recover from Tuesday’s sell off.

Gary’s Thoughts: Saw this headline: “Yesterday’s laggards are today’s leaders! Of course, we haven’t even opened yet. Commodities ruling the day!

 

Economic Data: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Data 10 am EST
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 am EST

Highlights Of The Day:

  • China’s Exports Plunge 24.5% year over year
    Gary’s Thoughts: Yup! All’s well!
  • Shares of Solar City (SCTY) spiked after the company announced a deal to install solar panels in Whole Foods Markets ($WFM) across the U.S.
    Gary’s Thoughts: That’s the reason?

The Closing Look

Stocks fell on Tuesday alongside other so-called risk assets after China announced disappointing trade data. China’s decline in exports deepened in February which strengthened the case that more stimulus may be needed. Chinese exports fell -25.4% year over year which illustrates how weak global demand is. This was the largest decline since May 2009. Chinese imports also plunged illustrating weak domestic demand.

Gary’s Thoughts: #@#&%#@