The Morning Look

Market Update:

Futures are higher ahead of Tuesday’s open as investors digest Monday’s strong rally. Janet Yellen will testify to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday and the Brexit vote is Thursday.

Gary’s Thoughts: Smaller gap to upside this morning. We hear it is all bout the Brexit. A poll of 50 people says… We have no clue what happens but figure as usual, they are overdoing it. Market did get distributed yesterday off the huge gap with financials still horrid.

Economic Data:

  • Redbook
    8:55 AM ET
  • Janet Yellen Speaks
    10:00 AM ET
  • Jerome Powell Speaks
    2:30 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Cleveland’s NBA Finals Victory Draws Record Audience for ABC
    Gary’s Thoughts: What about my Knicks?
  • A Quick Trip to the Oil Patch Shows Energy-Related Losses Rising
    Gary’s Thoughts: That will continue.
  • Trump Removes Corey Lewandowski as Campaign Manager
    Gary’s Thoughts: The Donald had better get act in gear or it will be President crook!

The Closing Look

Stocks opened higher on Monday after the latest Brexit poll came out over the weekend and hinted they will stay. But sellers showed up by the close and stocks ended well off their highs. The British Pound (FXB) gapped up on the news. JD.Com ($JD) rallied after Wal-Mart ($WMT) said it would sell its online business to the Chinese e-commerce company. Elsewhere, Boeing ($BA) opened higher after news broke that Iran had reached a deal to buy 100 planes. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is going to testify in front of Congress and the actual Brexit vote is on Thursday.

Gary’s Thoughts: Huge gap…sold into…which means gap to upside again tomorrow. No…really! The game is on.

A Big Bowl of Slop!

We had a report all ready for you on what we call the “big bowl of slop” market as we have seen a decent amount of deterioration recently. But after getting past being held hostage by Mrs Bubble, next up was the Brexit. Markets have teased the upside and downside depending on which way the polls go.
As we write this coming back from the mountains of Colorado, Dow futures are up almost 200 getting back some of the recent downdraft…all  because a new poll that came out says maybe not so fast…that the UK will vote no. It is amazing to us this is what the markets have to deal with. So, we will take a step back and see what tomorrow brings as a gap to the upside negates some of the ugly. Yippee! Keep in mind, the vote comes next. Keep in mind the Russell and NYSE sit where they were in late 2013. The Dow and S&P late 2014. The same for the Nasdaq which has been weak as of recent. This defines the slop. Foreign markets remain much weaker than ours. From highs, Japan is down almost 25%, the German Dax about 23% and the Shanghai down a whopping 45%!

The Closing Look

On Thursday, stocks opened lower but closed near their highs after several major global central banks concluded their latest meetings. The Bank of Japan (BOJ), Bank of England (BOE) and The Swiss National Bank (SNB) did not announce any changes to monetary policy and that spooked investors and sparked a rally into so-called “safe-heaven” asset classes. Japan’s Nikkei plunged 485 points and the Yen soared after the BOJ ended its meeting. Initially, gold soared before reversing by the end of the day after becoming very extended. The USD was higher but gave back the gains in the afternoon.

Gary’s Thoughts: Good reversal on market…bad reversal on gold. Tomorrow another day. Markets remain in a nauseating box.

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Futures are lower ahead of Thursday’s open as markets digest the Fed meeting and another round of Central Bank meetings.

Gary’s Thoughts: On or about 5/18, many fedheads were out just about guaranteeing a fed rate hike in June. That caused the dollar to spike higher and gold to break below support. In a nanosecond, all have changed their mind, sending gold to new highs. We continue to have to deal with the nonsense from the few, the few that oversaw the problems, the few that created the problems and now, we are to believe that those same few will fix the problems. We urge you to listen to our radio show from yesterday…which pretty much outlines the genesis of THIS central bank as well as central banks around the globe. We continue to believe that ultimate outcomes of easy money are never good.  We’ll keep fingers crossed. here is the link without commercials: https://ia801506.us.archive.org/3/items/160615.output/160615.output.mp3

Economic Data:

  • Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 8:30 AM ET
  • Current Account 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Fed Remains Dovish And Markets fall
    Gary’s Thoughts: Duh!
  • Japan’s Nikkei falls sharply (almost 500 points)after The Bank Of Japan holds rates steady…
    Gary’s Thoughts: Their market can be described as the land of the setting sun.

The Closing Look

Stocks opened higher on Wednesday but turned lower after the Fed meeting and press conference. The Fed held rates steady and turned more “dovish” as they reduced the likelihood of more rate hikes in the future. Economic data was mixed. The producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.4% in May, beating estimates for 0.3%. Industrial production fell to -0.4%, missing estimates for -0.1%. The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose to 6.0, beating estimates for -3.5%.

Gary’s Thoughts: Yellen the bubble robot explains how economy was fine and we are near full employment but lo and behold, blah blah blah and we cannot even raise rates 1/4 point. We could have a lot more to say but will hold our tongue. Makret did not thrill by the close. Steep sell-off in last half hour.

 

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Futures are higher ahead of Wednesday’s open as markets wait for the Fed this afternoon. On Tuesday, we saw the yield on the German 10-year bund drop into negative territory for the first time in history! That can’t be healthy in the long-run.

Gary’s Thoughts: Today we get Mrs Bubble telling us blah blah blah…is, was , maybe blah blah blah. Amazing markets held hostage on the decision of a whopping 1/4 point or not. That’s what you get when you have central banks running the world with a good $15-20 trillion of printed money, 0% rates forever and now, go look at the matrix we put up at garyk.com on government rates. No bubble? Our arse no bubble!

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • PPI-FD 8:30 AM ET
  • Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET
  • Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET
  •  FOMC Forecasts 2:00 PM ET
  • Fed Chair Press Conference 2:30 PM ET
  • Treasury International Capital 4:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Russian Hackers Stole Information From the DNC
    Gary’s Thoughts: Russia now knows the Socialist party will try and riase tax rates to 90%!
  • The market remains in pullback mode as the world waits for the Fed meeting and press conference later today…
    Gary’s Thoughts: Let’s hope it is just a pullback.

The Closing Look

Stocks fell on Tuesday as the Fed began their two-day meeting and government bond yields continued to fall across the globe. Before Tuesday’s open, the German 10-year bund yield slid into negative territory for the first time in history. Would you lend money to Germany for 10 years and pay them? The world of negative interest rates is worrisome and the outcome can not be healthy. The US dollar rallied after retail sales rose a more-than-expected +0.5% in May, beating estimates for 0.3%. Elsewhere, import and export prices rose +1.4%, beating estimates for 0.8% which signals inflation may be rising.

Gary’s Thoughts: Of main interest to us is the horrid action in financials. That needs to change. Not sure markets can hold up if this ugly continues. Credit card companies whacked as SYF announced consumers taking their time paying things back…uh oh! Rest of market is  blech!

The Closing Look

Stocks fell on Monday, adding to Friday’s losses as the market continues pulling back after encountering (and failing) near stubborn resistance last week. The S&P 500 continues pulling back into its 50 day moving average. In tech news, Microsoft (MSFT) fell over 2% after the tech-giant said it would buy online networking giant LinkedIn (LNKD) for $26.2 billion in its biggest-ever deal. LinkedIn shares surged +46.6%. In other news, shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) fell after the company held its latest developers conference and failed to impress.

Gary’s Thoughts: We said Friday’s action may have meant something of import and Monday adding to those thoughts. Go slow.

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Futures are lower ahead of Tuesday’s open as investors digest the recent decline on Wall Street. Later this week the Bank of Japan and the US Fed will conclude their latest meetings.

Gary’s Take: We continue to watch this race to the bottom on interest rates. Keep in mind, it is no longer a bond market. Markets are places where people buy and sell. Today’s bond market is controlled by a select few numbskulls at central banks. This long-term experiment continues to scare. Rates are not supposed to be negative. Today, Yellen and friends are in a room playing Centipede, Ms Pacman, Galaga and watching reruns of Barnaby Jones. Tomorrow, it will be “blah blah blah, data dependant, keeping rates the same.”

 

Economic Data:

  • FOMC Meeting Begins
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET
  • Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET
  • 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET

Highlights:

  • Central Banks: Bank of Japan (Japan’s Central Bank) and The US Fed Meet This Week
    Gary’s Thoughts: Oh joy!
  • Germany’s 10 year yield drops into negative territory
    Gary’s Thoughts: We repeat…something is up. This is the definition of a central bank-induced bubble.