Very rare we don’t have much to complain about. After our “changing of the guard” thought, lower beta areas have come on broadening out the market. But the other side in where growth was being whacked, stopped dead in its tracks on the downside when AAPL gapped up. Since, growth has bounced decently.
The charts of the indices look constructive. The S&P may be completing a good 6 month+ base in here as it approaches the highs. The DOW remains weaker but also looks to be emerging above intermediate term levels.
For sure, still plenty of areas not working but improvement continues and now “feeling” weakest areas like EMERGING MARKETS, CHINA and others may be trying to put in lows. When the worst put in lows, usually good news.
And yes we recognize we are into the August/September period when markets are supposed to be weaker.
We wrote changing of the guard last weekend and as of now, we are getting a little over a half of it.
We have seen some decent distribution in growth…but the good news, overall, still holding up…especially with AAPL and now TSLA on the move. But on the other end:
We are seeing continued money flows into areas that had previously been on the dormant side. REITS, UTILITIES, FOOD, BEVERAGE, HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS, RAILS and other lower beta stuff.
The good news is that the patterns of major indices look fine. Nothing spectacular but fine. We call them big bases…all starting the end of January. Even the weaker areas, like the Dow, are shaping up better here.
We are now in what keeps being told, the bad months of August and September. Before getting all bearish, let’s see some serious distribution.
For sure, we took almost 30 past growth leaders off our proprietary list…FB and TWTR come to mind, but so far, no damage being done off of it. And may we add markets continue to not worry about tariffs. We repeat…small tariffs, no biggie. Very big tariffs…no promises.
The big story yesterday was the NASDAQ/NDX holding the 50 day average again…almost to the penny. The same thing happened at the end of June. This time led by AAPL which gaped and continued up. On top of that, AMZN got going again. Even the worst reactors like FB, NFLX and TWTR bounced enabling the move.
Unemployment is 3.9% this morning. Futures flattish. Lots of jello moving on the plate off of earnings. Seeing an amazing amount of blow-ups as well as gaps to the upside.
Full report on the weekend.
Bad open this morning…can blame it on tariffs or just that last week we thought that TECH had topped for now as we go into the crappy Aug/Sept period. Either way, ease off the pedal.
We have to make note that about 2-3 dozen growth names that were trading above support/50 day avg have now broke below. Some like FB and TWTR have been squashed. This is not a great sign for the market. And this morning, we have W, HUBS, TRIP gapping down…another 3 names that were strong. SQ is down but not a ton.
We reiterate…more patience and continue to believe value now outperforms growth.
As far as Trump…HE HAD BETTER BE CAREFUL BECAUSE HE IS TAUNTING MARKETS WITH HIS CONTINUED TARIFF THREATS.
Eyes are on Apple (AAPL)…gapping up this morning on strong numbers…but in recent days, we have seen a ton of growth blow-ups. Even AMZN and GOOG, which gapped up on good numbers, sold off.
Futures flat on the S&P but up on the NDX because of AAPL. Strong gaps this morning in MOH, PAYC, SODA, ZEN.
Ten year back near 3%.