Well that was ugly…a big distribution day in growth as the NASDAQ/NDX just about tag the 50 day moving average again. We have seen this before with every time, the 50 day holding and price turning back up. We will let market do the bidding here. Just keep a wide eye open. If the 50 day breaks, trouble for growth and growth could be way overdue. Again, it has held before.
TRUMP raises the bar on tariffs. So far, no biggie. We think…eventually biggie. Tariffs suck. They suck bad. Other countries may feel the effect but eventually, we will feel the effect.
Watching the dollar here…seems like a top may be tracing out. If that’s the case, watch commodities, gold/silver and emerging markets. They could benefit as well as big multi-nationals. A top for the dollar has not been completed yet but certainly starting to trace a top out.
Futures down a wee bit. Trump raises the stakes on tariffs over the weekend but no harm done.
Overbought, a little froth in marijuana…but indices act fine. BUT there remains many bearish areas…so not much has changed. We have been in tavel hell so bigger report tonight.
Very quiet earnings week FDX, AZO, CPRT, MU…and that’s about it.
We believe there is a decent chance we saw a couple of changes recently, at least in the near term.
As you know, we have been bearish on many areas of the globe. After months of us warning to avoid, many are now coming around to the fact these areas were in bear markets. We think there is now a chance a decent low is being put in. This does not mean they are starting a new bull market but we think at the very least, a rally has started. Of course, it can turn into more. Nothing is for sure but we noticed a successful retest in China as well as many other areas. Many China ADRs may be putting in near-term lows.
In spite of so many areas of weakness in the U.S. market, notice one thing…the major indices refuse to buckle. Pullbacks have been nominal. Also, the important SEMICONDUCTORS were getting slammed again yesterday only to reverse most of the losses…another good near-term sign. Any selling has been defended and suspect that leads to some upside. It is good news that all major indices held support. It is good news that the TRANSPORTS have moved to new highs. It is good news that growth areas remain strong. And yes, all this is happening in September.
As always, market by market, sector by sector, stock by stock…
To our friends in the path of Florence,
As someone who has been through many weather events, not only hurricanes but also tornadoes (my first week in Florida had a tornado rip through my apartment)…DO NOT SCREW WITH MOTHER NATURE. Err on the side of caution. Hurricanes have no bias. Rich or poor…race, creed, color…does not matter. They will destroy any and all in their path. I have seen it and experienced it first hand. I helped out and toured the devastation of Andrew. It looked like a nuclear bomb went off. I watched 3 hurricanes pass through Central Florida in 2004. I saw the devastation of Irma last year.
If you can, GET OUT. GET AWAY. Go west and go west fast. Go south and go south fast. Go north and go north fast. Maybe it will be less than expected. Maybe not. Life is more important. Everything else pales in comparison.
Just thinking of you!
Yesterday’s pre-market was not so good but the 21 day moving average contained the DOW and S&P with the NDX and NASDAQ contained near the 50 day. The RUSSELL is also holding the 21 day. Add in AAPL and AMZN holding 21 day. Add in the continued strength in a select group of growth names and you still have a “market” that will not buckle.
BUT…and it is a big but…nothing has changed in all the areas that we have been bearish on and are still bearish. The SEMIS again had a bad day yesterday and will open lower again. We are quite surprised that the SEMIS have not influenced things but eventually they will. On top of that, foreign markets are horrid. We have been telling you to avoid them for a long time. Now…newspapers have headlines of the weakness because some areas are now down 20%.
We don’t know if our market becomes a part of the contagion but so far, the U.S. market continues to be a huge port in the storm across the globe. We are not just talking markets but currencies and bonds. Argentina, who we believe has defaulted 8 times throughout the years, were still able to float 100 year bonds. Yes…100 year bonds. They are now trading in the low 70s. Many other countries also have issues.
Asked every day about the marijuana stocks that continue to soar. Answer: just be careful. Extended is extended and they are extended. Froth is froth and they are frothy.
VTL down 90%…the drug did not work.
Check out the insider buying in TIF, TTWO.
I still remember where I was standing, what I saw, how I saw it, what I said. Another plane hit. My exact words yelled out: “IT’S A F—ING TERRORIST ATTACK!” I remember the drive home. I remember the whole day. I remember the next few days as the market was closed. I cannot believe it has been 17 years. This is one of those events that feels like yesterday. The stories of courage of heroes going back into the buildings. We can never forget. I never forget.
Futures down this morning but this morning…really don’t give a crap.