The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are quiet ahead of Thursday’s open as global markets digest this week’s action. The jobs report will be released before Friday’s open and then we enter earnings season.

Gary’s Thoughts: Flat as flat open can be…but we are back to a couple of indices nearer to highs and we must say, the market is stronger than the last time we were here. (pre brexit) There remains a ton of problems. Debt, deficits, European banks and that’s just the start. We urge you to pay attention to price as that is all that matters. The market will eventually decide when all the negatives matter. Leave no doubt, the fed stands pat and others ease more…and that has buffered markets for a loooooong time.

We are asked every month about our feelings on the next job’s number. We never answer because we do not know and are not privy but if form holds true, we get a good number tomorrow after a bad number last month. Yippee!

Economic Data:

  • Chain Store Sales
  • Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET
  • ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup Good Jobs Rate 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Fed Officials Held Rates in June as Job Slump Raised Uncertainty
    Gary’s Thoughts: Blah blah.
  • Ryan Calls for Barring Clinton From Classified Briefings
    Gary’s Thoughts: You know our stance.

LAWS ARE ONLY FOR US LITTLE PEOPLE

  “LAWS ARE ONLY FOR US LITTLE PEOPLE!”
By Gary Kaltbaum-July 5th,2016
She put in servers on purpose. She used the servers on purpose. She destroyed emails on purpose. She lied to the American public over and over again about the purpose of those servers on purpose. She lied about using classified material on purpose. She lied about sending and receiving those emails on purpose. She lied about turning over everything to the state department on purpose. She lied about everything on purpose. That’s not just our opinion. That’s the FBI’s opinion. The FBI not only agreed with us but just multiply by many.
But that was not enough for this FBI. The fix was in. The fix is in and the fix will be in going forward as there remains one set of rules for the Clintons and a different set of rules for the little people.
We do not know James Comey. We never met James Comey. We hear many that are in the tank defending James Comey. James Comey questioned whether she had intent. What other information does this man need to show intent? Maybe he forgot her techie took the 5th over 125 times?.
She does nothing by accident. She says nothing by accident. Everything is planned. Everything has forethought. We are told she is bright. We are told she is presidential material. Now we are told she is just an idiot who had no clue, did not know what she was doing and had no intent. Again, what else do you need to prove intent?
This is the worst of Washington…AND IN PLAIN SIGHT. We are just a bunch of puppets. We have no say. We are just nobodies on the outside looking in.
James Comey indicted Hillary Clinton in the first 10 minutes of his speech today and in the next few minutes, gave her a pass. We are on one end speechless, but on the other end, not surprised.
A #%@#% joke!

The Closing Look

U.S. stocks were closed on Monday in observance of independence day. Overseas markets fell as fresh concern spread regrading Brexit. On Monday, the European Central Bank opened the door to state aid for euro zone banks. Italy was back in focus when they entered into to talks with the European Commission to recapitalize their banks with public money. On Tuesday, stocks sold off after the British Pound broke below last week’s low and continued to drag other markets lower. Shares of European banks fell hard as investors were worried about their ability to stay solvent in a post Brexit world. In other news, Bond yields continued to plunge across the world.

Gary’s Thoughts: We are not thrilled. Last week again reminds us of the same criminal end of qtr window dressing that pervades every quarter. Lots of ick under the surface! Leadership remains defensive!

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are lower ahead of Wednesday’s open as global markets remain under pressure and investors wait for the Fed minutes to be released at 2pm est today. Next up will be Friday’s jobs report and earnings season (over the next few weeks).

Gary’s Thoughts: Lower but off lows. Markets remain mushy with foreign markets much weaker than ours.

Economic Data:

  • Bank Reserve Settlement
  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • William Dudley Speaks 8:00 AM ET
  • International Trade 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • Daniel Tarullo Speaks 9:00 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index 9:45 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
  • FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Bond Yields Continue To Plunge Across The Globe
    Gary’s Thoughts: Unreal!
  • The FBI Just Gave Clinton A Pass
    Gary’s Thoughts: You expect different?

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are lower ahead of Tuesday’s open as the market digests last week’s very strong bounce after the initial Brexit sell-off. Looking forward the market is waiting for the jobs report and then earnings season to begin next week.

Gary’s Thoughts: Now that end-of-quarter, pre-holiday is over, we shall see. Would be normal to pull in a wee bit here. Futures down…gold and silver continue up. Oil hit hard.

Economic Data:

  • Gallup US ECI 8:30 AM ET
  • Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET
  • 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • TD Ameritrade IMX 12:30 PM ET
  • Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure 1:00 PM ET
  • 4-Week Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET
  • William Dudley Speaks 2:30 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Deadly Weekend: Fatal Bombings in Iraq, Serbia and Bangladesh
    Gary’s Thoughts: Just the beginning.
  • Dollar Traders See Jobs Data as Obstacle After Post-Brexit Fade
    Gary’s Thoughts: Blah blah. More at work with currencies than jobs data.

Heckuva end of quarter!

       “HECKUVA END OF QUARTER ACTION!”
By Gary Kaltbaum-July 5,2016
After two days of absolute nausea, we wrote to you Monday night that we thought a rally was about to start. The thought was simple. We were entering the end of quarter window dressing. We were entering the pre-holiday trading. Bearishness picked up to levels we have not seen in quite a while and to top things off, major indices were about as stretched to the downside as we have seen.

But holy crap! We do not like giving targets but we would have told you that the rally would probably be in the neighborhood of half the drop. That number was covered in less than two days. The rest of the week was a clear absence of sellers, a clear plethora of short covering and of course, a good dose of buying.

Now that the markets got back just about everything the scare tactics of the Brexit took away:

Major indices are now near-term overbought as they have now entered massive resistance but that’s less important than what’s working as sector by sector, there are bull and bear by side.

Gold and silver are en fuego with the stocks remaining stronger than the metals. All extended and all needing pullbacks but leave no doubt…bullish!

Yields continue to crash around the globe. The manipulation, the rigging and the outright buying of bond markets by central banks has done the trick but beware. We have no clue why anyone would lend someone money for no yield for a long period of time, and the insanity of negative yields. Don’t get us started.

Financials continue to lag badly.  Very badly.

The most interest rate sensitive areas continue with the bid, namely utilities and real estate.

The most defensive of issues remain with the bid and the proposal for Hershey did not hurt. Food,drugs,beverage,alcohol,tobacco,household products.

Transports continue to underperform badly.

While the UK market acts better, many other world markets continue to act poorly.

Retail, while the bleeding has stopped, continues to act terrible.

How the hell did the Warriors get Durant?

How the hell do the Knicks keep picking up past/ injured superstars and go no place fast?

Ok…went off script.

Lastly, a potential positive is that mutual fund cash is at a very big number of 11 percent indicating if markets do break out, that cash is going to come off the sidelines.

The Closing Look

On Thursday, stocks continued to rally as they attempt to repair their post-brexit sell off. The wild swings we have seen over the past five trading days are unprecedented and just illustrates how all the interference from global central banks continues to distort markets. Tuesday morning, Mr. Draghi (European Central Bank President) said Central Banks need to do more which basically gave a green light to central banks and investors to buy stocks. Then, earlier today Mr. Carney, (Bank of England President) came out and said U.K. will need more stimulus post Brexit. That effectively juiced stocks helping the indices have a strong end to the month and quarter. In other news, the S&P rating agency cut the rating on E.U. to ‘AA’ after Brexit.

Gary’s Thoughts: Thank you Bank of England…and let us say, there was actually some juice in some of the moves today. A few names outside defensive areas were actually strong. This feels like more than end of quarter shenanigans.

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are quiet ahead of Friday’s open as the market digests the very strong bounce after the Brexit sell-off.

Gary’s Thoughts: Bank of England announces cutting rates..continues the amazing turnaround. More on the weekend. Happy July 4th!

Economic Data:

  • Motor Vehicle Sales
  • PMI Manufacturing Index 9:45 AM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET
  • Loretta J. Mester Speaks 11:00 AM ET
  • Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • EU Calls for ‘Orderly’ Brexit at Historic Meeting Minus U.K.
    Gary’s Thoughts:Doesnt matter.
  • S&P cuts rating on EU to ‘AA’ after Brexit
    Gary’s Thoughts: Doesnt matter.

Short notes on market!

By Gary Kaltbaum-June 29,2016
After scanning Monday night, we came to a simple conclusion about Mr. Market. We thought that markets were stretched and extended to the downside beyond the beyond and that the end-of-quarter window dressing (illegal) and the pre-holiday trading would get the market rallying back up some of the nasty drop. So…two big gaps to the downside and two big gaps to the upside have markets getting back a damn good amount of the ugly…which now calls into question whether the drop was an out of position, not expecting, total surprise which caught everything everybody off guard. We suspect there is a chance that that’s all there is to the reaction to the event in the U.K. and suspect markets are just back into the range they have been in for a very long time. (You didn’t really believe all the scare tactics?) After all, the market’s modus operandi the past couple years has been big, nasty, quick drops and than pixie dust action back up.
Before the “Brexit,” the Dow and S&P were close to the tips and close to actually moving out of range. There is still plenty of work to do but amazingly, we are quickly getting back up there. Keep in mind, most other indices are much weaker. We suspect we will soon go into backing and filling mode as the massive resistance is again ahead. Brexit schmexit!

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are up ahead of Wednesday’s open as the market is bouncing from oversold levels and investors digest Friday and Monday’s steep sell-off.

Gary’s Thoughts: And another gap to the upside. Wasn’t the past few days fun? As we said, end of quarter, pre-holiday, massively stretched and oversold and a big dose of bearishness will get the market to rally back some but just letting you know, we are reading a little too much that everything is back to being fine.

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET
  • Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Awful Terror Attack at Turkey’s Airport!
    Gary’s Thoughts: Those that do not value their own life have to be destroyed before they destroy.
  • EU Chiefs ‘Held Hostage’ Tell Cameron to Lay Out Brexit Plan
    Gary’s Thoughts: EU chiefs are morons.