The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are higher ahead of Wednesday’s open as the market continues to rally. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 hit the highest level since July and is now above key resistance at 2,111.

Gary’s Thoughts: The dollar smacked again this morning…oil, gold commodities again on the move. Here is what we wrote after the close yesterday. It remains appropriate:

“Off of a change of central bank stance, the dollar continues to weaken…leading to a rise n commodities. But what happens if Yellen wakes up next week and raises rates? Dollar soars, commodities hit and markets in trouble. Again, markets continue to be held hostage by one woman and a few others running other central banks. The decisions of a few moving markets. Markets are supposed to be about the fear and greed of investors and speculators at a time and at a price. Not any more.”

 

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • JOLTS 10:00 AM ET
  • Quarterly Services Survey 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Valeant Slumps Again After New CEO Fails to Reassure Investors
    Gary’s Thoughts: 90% drop! Lessons!
  • U.S. Airlines Are Succeeding More This Year at Raising Your Fare
    Gary’s Thoughts: That’s because they can!

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are higher ahead of Tuesday’s open after Yellen made it clear that Friday’s dismal jobs report raised uncertainty regarding the economy.

Gary’s Thoughts: Marginally up early. Paying attention to energy here off of yesterday’s move. Would love some sitting/pulling back.

Economic Data:

  • Productivity and costs
  • Gallup US ECI
  • Redbook
  • Consumer Credit

Highlights:

  • Clinton secures democratic nomination
    Gary’s Thoughts: Thrilled!
  • June is out- traders bet Fed will raise rates in September
    Gary’s Thoughts: No more hikes this year.

 

The Closing Look

Stocks rallied nicely on Monday helping the Dow Jones Industrial Average and benchmark S&P 500 jump above near term areas of resistance and hit new highs for the year. Janet Yellen spoke on Monday and said Friday’s tepid Jobs Report created economic uncertainty which reduced the chance of a June rate hike. Oil stocks were front and center on Monday as oil prices jumped over 2% on fresh supply concerns out of Nigeria.

Gary’s Thoughts: Oil, oil and more oil emerges after a few dormant weeks. Oil stocks come up the ight side with services the strongest. Will not hurt the market. There will be no June rate hike.

Short weekend notes!

Since we had some weather-related travel hell, just a few short notes on last week.

Duh! The Fed will not be raising rates. Duh! The economy is not accelerating! As we have said for ages, the economy is blah. If not for 0% rates forever, negative rates, the printing of trillions and the buying up of markets, the world would be S.O.L. But that’s for another day!

Markets cannot sell off. Several times last week, markets were way down intraday, only to recover. Until that dynamic changes…

On the other end, markets still cannot break to the upside. Just thinking not enough areas participating yet. Maybe in time.

Because of the fake employment number, the dollar cracked…thus gold/silver soared. Gold stocks came right off the 50 day…perfectly. Still in play on little pullbacks. Other interest rate sensitive plays on the move…reits and utilities. The utility index broke out. As rates come down, they go. On the other end, distribution Friday in big financials but they too reversed some of the ugly.

More to come tomorrow night. Will have thoughts on a lot of stuff including Muhammad Ali!

 

The Closing Look

Stocks opened lower and closed higher on Thursday as investors digested a slew of data. Overnight, Japan’s stock market fell over 2% which put pressure on global equities. Before the open, The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said inflation rates will likely stay low or negative in the near future as global growth remains sluggish. Separately, OPEC concluded its latest meeting, kept their policy unchanged, and did not place an output ceiling. Crude oil initially fell on the news but edged higher throughout the session. In the U.S., ADP said private employers added +173,000 new jobs in May which almost matched estimates for +175,000 new jobs. The April report was revised up to 166,000 from 156,000.

Gary’s Thoughts: Open down…finish at highs of day. Broad market good! Tomoorow, fake job’s number! Market feels like it wants topside…but never jump the gun!

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are quiet ahead of Friday’s open as the market waits for the always fun (and fake) jobs report.

Gary’s Thoughts: Blah fake job’s number. Another half million people leave workforce…thus unemployment number at 4.7%. Tired of talking Fed. Just remember, for ever, bad news is good news for markets as central banks continue to up the ante.

Economic Data:

  • Charles Evans Speaks
    3:45 AM ET
  • Employment Situation
    8:30 AM ET
  • International Trade
    8:30 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • Factory Orders
    10:00 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Lael Brainard Speaks
    12:30 PM ET
  • Baker-Hughes Rig Count
    1:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • OPEC Keeps Status Quo After Failing to Agree on Output Cap
    Gary’s Thoughts: Just watch price!
  • Draghi Says Feeble Reforms Hurt Recovery
    Gary’s Thoughts: The man and the rest of the bubble makers do not have a clue to the outcome of their experiment with trillions of dollars of conjured up money, let alone 0% rates, negative rates and the outright buying up of markets by central banks.

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are a little lower ahead of Thursday’s open as the market waits for today’s ADP report then Friday’s always fun (and fake) jobs report.

Gary’s Thoughts: Paint drying open…but pay attention here. Something going to give soon. We feel it.

Economic Data:

  • Chain Store Sales
  • Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET
  • ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup Good Jobs Rate 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET
  • Robert Kaplan Speaks 1:00 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Two Dead in UCLA Shooting
    Gary’s Thoughts: What a massive response by officials. San Bernadino changed the playing foeld for reactions.
  • Major Landlord Sends Warning About Rental Markets in NYC, San Francisco
    Gary’s Thoughts: Don’t worry…no bubbles.

The Closing Look

Stocks opened lower but closed near their highs on Wednesday as investors digested the latest round of economic data.Auto sales fell which hurt sentiment. GM said sales plunged -18% last month and Ford (F) said sales tanked -5.9%. In the afternoon, the Fed’s Beige Book showed a decent picture of economic growth across the 12 districts. The fact that it was not a big miss, helped the market.

Gary’s Thoughts: Quiet but better action in the smalls and good reversal in the financials after ugliness early. Continued contracted volatility at the tips for Dow and S&P. Something will give soon.

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are lower ahead of Wednesday’s open. Stocks fell on Tuesday which was the last trading day for May. It is normal to see the market pullback a little after the recent and strong rally we saw over the past week and half.

Gary’s Thoughts: Yuck open. End of month, pre-holiday over. Let’s see how they pull this back. Just noting a few dow stocks not acting well…NKE,MCD,HD,DIS,BA come to mind.

Economic Data:

  • Motor Vehicle Sales
  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • PMI Manufacturing Index 9:45 AM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET
  • Beige Book 2:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Carl Icahn Says He Bought ‘Large Position’ in Allergan
    Gary’s Thoughts: Based on history, we are going to watch this closely! Keep in mind, Icahn knows this CEO as he put him into the CEO slot at Forest Labs before it was bought.
  • Heartbreaking! Nearly 46 Million People Trapped in Modern Slavery, Report Finds
    Gary’s Thoughts: Criminal!