The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are a little lower ahead of Tuesday’s open. The Dow fell 6 days in a row as it continues consolidating its recent post-brexit rally and a ton of earnings continue to be released. Overnight, Japan announced its fiscal stimulus plan which disappointed some investors and Australia’s Central Bank Cut rates to a record low 1.5%.

Gary’s Thoughts: Quiet small pullback pre-market. No biggie! Oils act much better than the commodity so if oil prices can get bid, thinking best oil names should be reviewed.

Economic Data:

  • Motor Vehicle Sales
  • Rob Kaplan Speaks 6:15 AM ET
  • Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup US ECI 8:30 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET

Highlights:

  • Dimon Says European Regulators Should Let Banks Do Their Job
    Gary’s Thoughts:If they did, they would go out of business.
  • Half of NYC’s Voters Don’t Want De Blasio Re-Elected, Poll Says
    Gary’s Thoughts: Corrupt,cronyistic amateur!

Another Investment Bank Bearish!

Goldman has been bearish and states it again. Gundlach says to sell everything. Other big investment banks have been bearish the past couple of months. We do not think we have seen this type of bearishness before in a market that has been moving higher. This type of market opinion is usually reserved for deep in bear markets. Go figure. We think they see how bad earnings are and how slow economies are both here and around the globe but…CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUE TO RAISE THE BAR…and that’s keeping the move going. We are also being told how bad August is for stocks. We shall see!

 

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/01/goldman-sachs-downgrades-equities-to-underweight-over-three-months.html

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are relatively flat ahead of Monday’s open as investors digest a weaker-than-expected GDP report, the latest round of mixed earnings and economic data and wait for Friday’s fake jobs report. Remember weak “data” is bullish for stocks because it means more easy money from global central banks.

Gary’s Thoughts: All quiet this morning. Tons of earnings this week but the most important names are out. Markets remain stretched to the upside with a good dose of bullishness…but so far, things acting fine.

Economic Data:

  • PMI Manufacturing Index 9:45 AM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET
  • Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure 2:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • $60 Is the New $50 for U.S. Oil Drillers Waiting for Rebound
    Gary’s Thoughts: Or $40.
  • Tesla announces a Take-under merger with Solar City:
  • Gary’s Thoughts: Nothing good about this ethically challenged buyout.

Weekend report!

Our themes have not changed.
We continue to believe and have been proven correct that earnings growth is poor, sales growth is poor and the economy is blah! 1.2% ain’t going to do nothing for no one!
We continue to believe the maniacal central banks will continue to leave rates at 0% or below, go further into negative rates, print more money and continue to outright buy up markets. At this point, they will never ever be able to stop. Markets are addicted to it. If they even blink, markets would be smoked. In fact, all we have seen since the low in February is an increase in all of this nonsense…which has directly impacted things…specifically the biggest bubble in history, world bond markets. Who the hell in their right minds would lend anyone long term at negative rates? Answer is…central banks. Answer is…those that are forced to. Answer is…those that actually believe they will make money as rates go more negative. Just remember, economics 101 states that the more debt you have, the more you need to compensate lenders with higher rates. But there is no economics 101 right now as the whole system is rigged.
As far as markets, technically, we have very little in the way of complaints. As long as the Dow and S&P remain above their breakout levels, we are fine. Our biggest worry right now is the eerie calm and complacency which typically occurs when markets refuse to sell off…even on supposed bad news. We would like to and rather see some fear but right now, nothing doing.
Major indices remain in good shape. In fact, after the breakout of the Dow and S&P out of the long trading range, action has been very tight. A move above the tight range will only put another point in the bullish camp. Look for NYSE 10,815, S&P 2075. The DOW lags a bit off a few names not acting well…the NASDAQ/NDX has already gone topside with the move in some very influential big-cap names…namely Google, Amazon and Apple.
Other notes:
There remains a ton of cash on the sidelines which is poteial ammo for higher prices.
Gold/silver remain very strong as the race to the bottom on currencies and the printing of money continues. In fact, all pullbacks are short-lived and controlled.
Other commodities, namely steel are strong as the dollar rolls over.
Oil prices remain weak because of oversupply and slack demand but just letting you know many oil stocks are outperforming the commodity. Many report earnings this week.
Foreign markets remain weaker than the U.S. market but many are starting to come on. This is something that needs to be watched as the best bullish moves are worldwide moves. Many foreign markets are still way down in the past year with U.S. markets only up a smidge.

 

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are a little lower ahead of Friday’s open as investors digest the latest round of earnings and economic data. The Bank Of Japan decided to not make any changes to monetary policy which disappointed some investors (who were looking for more easy money).

Gary’s Thoughts: But Japan announces they will buy up more stock ETFs and amazingly says they can take negative rates even lower. THEY WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO NORMALIZE. WE WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO NORMALIZE…AS MARKETS HAVE BECOME USED TO AND ADDICTED TO THIS MANIACAL MONETARY POLICY.

And GOOG and AMZN have gaps to upside this morning. Both with good numbers. Will be very interested in seeing whether the gaps are held.

Economic Data:

  • GDP 8:30 AM ET
  • Employment Cost Index 8:30 AM ET
  • John Williams Speaks 9:30 AM ET
  • Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET
  • Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET
  • Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET
  • Rob Kaplan Speaks 1:00 PM ET
  • Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • DNC Convention is finally over…
    Gary’s Thoughts: 102 days to election!
  • Apple, Netflix, Facebook, Google and Amazon have now all reported earnings…
    Gary’s Thoughts: Overall…earnings not good…but great companies continue to be great.

The Closing Look

Stocks ended mixed on Thursday as investors digested the latest round of earnings and economic data. Economic data was mixed. Jobless claims came in at 266, compared to the Street’s estimate for 264k. The Kansas City Manufacturing index came in at negative -6, missing estimates for positive 2. Overnight, The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its decision on monetary policy and Friday morning U.S. GDP will be announced. Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) were some of the stocks that reported earnings after the bell.

Gary’s Thoughts: Since many asking…Facebook gap sold off…AAPL gap holding for the most part. FB into highs…AAPL has tons of resistance to deal with. Facebook numbers incredible…AAPL numbers terrible. Go figure!

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are a little lower ahead of Thursday’s open as investors digest the latest round of earnings data and wait for Friday’s Bank of Japan Meeting.

Gary’s Thoughts: Tons of earnings. Interesting that FB had what we consider a monster quarter…was $132-plus but now trades under $128. Amazon and Google after the close. Two important names.

Economic Data:

  • International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Fed Begins Crawl Toward Rate Hike With Near-Term Risks Diminishing – Bloomberg
    Gary’s Thoughts: Horsecrap!
  • Berkshire’s Apple Bet Is Back in the Black After Rally
    Gary’s Thoughts: We forgot to mention Apple…little distribution off the gap. Numbers still stink but will be watching how it trades after the gap.

The Closing Look

Stocks ended mixed on Wednesday as investors digested the latest round of economic and earnings data. Overnight, Japan fired another 28T Yen easy money missile to help stimulate their market and their lackluster economy. That came a few days before their central bank meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, The U.S. Fed held rates steady and the latest round of earnings roulette continued. Apple (AAPL), Garmin (GRMN) and Edward Life Sciences (EW) gapped up after releasing their Q2 results while shares of Twitter (TWTR) and Coca-Cola (KO) were some of the names that gapped down on earnings. Elsewhere, pending home sales grew by 0.2%, missing estimates for a gain of 1.2%.

Gary’s Thoughts: We are thrilled that the market ignored the Fed. We cannot wait for the day where markets stick a certain finger up at them.  Gold/Silver reacted to the nonsense.  Markets spinning wheels right here.

The Closing Look

Stocks were quiet on Tuesday as investors digested the latest round of earnings and economic data as the Fed began its two day meeting. On average economic data was somewhat positive with some strong data coming from the housing market. Separately, earnings data continues to be mixed as earnings roulette continues (some stocks gap up and some gap down after reporting earnings).

Gary’s Thoughts: Market much better than the indices. All’s fine. Steels now showing up. Big news is the ADI for LLTC. Another overpriced buyout of a no growth company because easy money makes it easy.

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are a little higher ahead of Wednesday’s open as investors wait for the Fed and the latest round of economic and earnings data to be released.

Gary’s Thoughts: But NDX futures up nicely off of crappy Apple numbers…but they said things will get better. Apple up $7…which helps Dow and NDX…with suppliers also up. Earnings were down 27%…sales down 15%…but all’s well!

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
  • Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • 2-Yr FRN Note Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • The DNC convention or as we say…Fantasyland is underway. People who keep telling us how bad things are keep telling us Trump paints a bleak picture. People who always tell us how badly we need them continue to tell us how badly we need them. We’ll have more on this in a couple days.