The Closing Look

Stocks rallied on Wednesday after President-Elect Trump held his first press conference of 2017. The tech heavy Nasdaq composite closed at a record high while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to trade just below 20,000. Meanwhile, the Mexican Peso hit a fresh record low after Trump reiterated his intention to build a wall.

Gary’s Thoughts: Getting closer on the dow. Rest of market acted well as it sold off on Trump and then rallied. But…message to Trump. Keep ripping on business and eventually you will cause a dislocation. Promise! Yesterday, Trump ripped the drug companies. Immediately, everything drugs sold off hard. We are not defenders of drug companies. We just need to state if Trump has a problem with industry, it would be better to call them out behind closed doors first…because in the wrong kind of market, he will crack the market. He also stated “and other industires!” So there are other industries he does not like or has issue with. Which ones? When will he mention them? What will be the repercussions?

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are lower before Thursday’s open as investors wait for a slew of earnings to be released over the next few weeks.

Gary’s Thoughts: Futures down…weaker Europe not helping. Big financials reporting earnings tomorrow…very important to watch. On the gold front, looks like the GDX sets up well just above the 50 day. To watch!

Economic Calendar:

  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Import & Export Prices 8:30 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Dennis Lockhart Speaks 12:30 PM ET
  • Bullard Speaks 1:15PM ET
  • Treasury Budget 2:00PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30PM ET
  • Janet Yellen Speaks 7:00PM ET

Highlights:

  • Trump says pharma ‘getting away with murder,’ stocks slide
    Gary’s Thoughts: Not smart.
  • Obama Says Farewell As His Legacy Unravels
    Gary’s Thoughts: Listen to the first segment of our radio show yesterday.

The Closing Look

On Monday, stocks were mixed as energy dragged the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average lower while the Nasdaq hit a fresh record high. We are entering earnings season and investors will, once again, turn their focus to earnings over the next several weeks. Elsewhere, AliBaba Founder, Jack Ma, met with President-Elect Donald Trump and said he plans to create over 1 million new jobs in the U.S. over the next five years.

Gary’s Thoughts: Oils did not help. A few dow names hit. Big cap tech/internet remains with a bid but names like FB,AMZN into massive overhead resistance. Financials were actually down. Never thought that would happen again. This coming Friday…BAC,JPM,PNC,WFC report.

Tuesday’s Pre-Market Look: Stocks In The News Before The Open

American Express (AXP) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Oppenheimer with an 18-month target price of $98.

Allstate (ALL) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Travelers Cos (TRV) was downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Williams Cos (WMB) slumped 7% in after-hours trading after it announced a plan to increase its ownership in Williams Partners to 72% from 58% and that it will launch a 65 million share public offering in order to pay for the share purchase.

Kite Pharma (KITE) gained 1% in after-hours trading after it entered into a joint venture licensing deal with Daiichi Sankyo to develop an experimental treatment for an aggressive type of blood cancer and will receive $50 million upfront plus an additional $200 million if developmental and regulatory milestones are met.

Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) dropped 5% in after-hours trading after it reported preliminary Q3 EPS of 39 cents, weaker than consensus of 43 cents.

Barracuda Networks (CUDA) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 22 cents, well above consensus of 14 cents, and said Q3 billings for core products were up +30% y/y to $61.6 million.

Nabors Industries Ltd (NBR) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it began an offering of $500 million of exchangeable senior unsecured notes due 2024.

Zeltiq Aesthetics (ZLTQ) lost nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it said CCO and President Keith Sullivan will retire effective Jan 16.

WD-40 (WDFC) fell 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 net sales of $89.2 million, weaker than consensus of $96.3 million.

Cray Inc. (CRAY) lost 4% in after-hours trading after it reported 2016 revenue of $630 million, below consensus if $633.2 million, and said for 2017 it “currently believes it will be difficult to grow over 2016.”

VOXX International (VOXX) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 24 cents and said Q3 net sales rose 3.3%.

Atwood Oceanics (ATW) dropped nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 13.5 million common shares.

Shoe Carnival (SCVL) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it cut its fiscal-year net sales estimate to $1 billion-$1.003 billion, below a November 28 forecast of $1.002 billion-$1.006 billion

City Office REIT (CIO) slid 3% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 4 million shares of common stock.

Papa Murphy’s Holdings (FRSH) tumbled 7% in after-hours trading after it reported preliminary Q4 revenue of $35.5 million, weaker than consensus of $38.3 million.

Source: FoxBusiness, Barchart, CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are relatively quiet before Tuesday’s open as investors wait for earnings season to officially begin.

Gary’s Thoughts: Very quiet but…a bunch of commodity names up 2-5% on higher commodity prices. Forgot to mention a little fireworks in biotech-land yesterday. No real leadership…stuff off lows with a few spec names moving on drug news.

Economic Calendar:

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • JOLTS 10:00 AM ET
  • Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET
  • 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 3-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Trump Advisers to Meet With Paul Ryan on Tax Reform, Obamacare
    Gary’s Thoughts: We wonder how they are going to cover $15-20 million people on Obamacare.
  • Alibaba job boom: Jack Ma chats with Trump about how to create 1 million US jobs over 5 years
    Gary’s Thoughts: The dude sure knows the big guns of business. Cannot hurt to be speaking with them. Bernard Arnault was also in the house. Look him up!

 

Weekend thoughts!

Just remember…Russia has been a bad player forever. It is only news now because there is a certain someone who will be president soon that both parties do not like. The media couldn’t give a crap about Russia. Russian reset? Ok…we’re in a bad mood as our Giants were whooped!

20,000 Dow. We don’t blame the world for paying attention to the number. It’s a big number. Just remember, it is a testament to the greatness of this country. We lead in just about everything. Nothing can stop us, including the nuts from DC. And yes, we have to give a hand to the fed and central banks around the globe.

The most important part of the equation, so far, is that pullbacks…what’s a pullback? Selling? What’s selling? Of course, eventually, we will get a bout of it but so far, nothing doing. A few other notes:

The big cap tech/internet that were lagging so badly, finally woke up. We are talking”FANG-type” names. In fact, Apple and Google are trying to break out here with Facebook and Amazon turning the corner.

Keep watching Goldman. When it weakened Thursday, markets weakened. When it ramped, markets ramped. Goldman and just about all other financials remain ridiculously strong, setting up in another powerful flag pattern…a rare occurrence.

Chinese ADRs are also waking up as the Chinese Yuan turned. We’ll see how long that manipulation lasts!

The bond market rallied right into the declining 50 day average. A break above furthers the move. Definite improvement in interest-rate sensitive areas recently.

 

The Closing Look

Stocks rallied on Wednesday after the Fed minutes showed they are concerned about a stronger dollar. Mortgage applications fell by 12% last week, from two weeks earlier as rising interest rates hurt. Separately,  Fiat Chrysler, Ford Motor and General Motors all reported better-than-expected auto sales for December, which helped their stocks rally. U.S. auto sales for December came in at 18.4 million, versus an estimate of 17.7 million.

Gary’s Thoughts: Everyone is now bullish…that’s the main complaint…but…steel now looking ready again…financials just sit in another flag with a few names edging out…biotech finally catching a bid…and just not a lot of breaking down. Continuing to also pay attention to gold and gold stocks as the stocks leading the metal again. May just be a counter-trend rally.

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are lower before Thursday’s open as traders wait for Friday’s  jobs report.

Gary’s Thoughts: Futures down just a bit but Macys yonked…Kohls yonked, LB, JWN, JCP and other big retailers smacked….big retailers continue to lag. We suspect there will be many more store closings in the years ahead. Macys just announced a bunch.

Economic Calendar:

  • Weekly Bill Settlement
  • 52-Week Bill Settlement
  • Chain Store Sales[Bullet
  • Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET
  • ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup Good Jobs Rate 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index 9:45 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Pence: Replacing Obamacare Is First Order of Business
    Gary’s Thoughts: Market forces!
  • Macy’s Declines After Reducing Outlook, Moves to Cut 10,100 Jobs
    Gary’s Thoughts: Hate seeing so many cuts.

The Closing Look

Stocks were closed on Monday in observance of the New Year Holiday. On Tuesday, stocks rallied on the first trading day of 2017 but closed off their highs after energy prices plunged. Natural Gas plunged 10% mid day on ample supply and a seasonally warm January and February. Oil prices U.S. opened higher but closed lower and hit a two-week low as the US dollar rallied. Economic data was mostly positive which helped the greenback rally. The ISM manufacturing index jumped to 54.7, a two-year high and easily beating estimates for 53.8. Elsewhere, construction spending jumped to a 10-year high and also beat estimates. The stronger than expected economic data strengthens the case for the Fed to raise rates later this year, hence the stronger dollar.

Gary’s Thoughts: See-saw day. Strong gap open…good sell…75 dow points to the upside in the final 30. WATCH GOLD here. Looks like it wants to turn up for now. Not sure duration but looks like money flows coming in. Stocks leading the metal. Also, oil prices reversed down hard but oil stocks did not. Something else to watch as many oil names sitting tight.

Two interesting political stories of the day. First, the moron Republicans tried squashing some ethics rules. Yup…first day of year and look what some wanted to do. The good news is Trump squashed them and went nowhere. Also. Ford not moving plant to Mexico and will invest in the good old U.S. of A. Ford CEO first says had nothing to do with Trump but then says it does…gonna be a fun 4 years and it hasn’t even started.

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are higher before Wednesday’s open as traders wait for a busy day and week of economic data.

Gary’s Thoughts: Futures up a wee bit as beginning of year starts nicely.

Economic Calendar:

  • Motor Vehicle Sales
  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
  • Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure 2:00 PM ET
  • FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Ford cancels Mexico plant… Ford CEO tries to say it was because “market demand, not Trump”
    Gary’s Thoughts: By end of day, said it was confidence in Trump policies that also moved the needle. Nothing by accident kids.
  • Energy markets reversed hard on Tuesday which took some ‘energy’ out of the market
    Gary’s Thoughts: But underlying stocks did not reverse with the price of oil.