The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are plunging once again ahead of Thursday’s open. Overnight, China’s stocks plunged another 7% and were closed after circuit breakers were triggered for the second time this week. This clearly is not a good sign to see a major stock market in the world plunge and close twice in one week. Remember, stocks fell hard on Monday and Wednesday and are down substantially so far this week. Keep in mind we have the always-fun jobs report on Friday and the market remains “oversold” in the short term.

Gary’s Thoughts:  This bear market did not start this week. We have highlighted it for you for months. This is just the 30% holding up the indices finally gagging. Do not believe those who missed it all and now saying it’s becuase of China. 

Economic Data:

  • Chain Store Sales
  • Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup Good Jobs Rate  8:30 AM ET
  • Jeffrey Lacker Speaks  8:45 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index  9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Charles Evans Speaks 2:15 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • China’s stock market plunged 7% and were shut down after circuit breakers were triggered for the second time this week
      Gary’s Thoughts: As stated before, you cannot curb and restrict selling and expect good things.
    • Some Fed Members Saw December Rate Rise as ‘Close Call’
      Gary’s Thoughts: 
    • Netflix Launches in 130 New Countries in Major Expansion
      Gary’s Thoughts: Netflix on the moon soon.
    • Wal-Mart Workers on Pistol Patrol After Law Lets Texans Tote Guns
      Gary’s Thoughts: YIPPEE!
    • Amazon to Sell Its Own Brand of Chips Next to Wipes, USB Cables
      Gary’s Thoughts: Bet you cant eat just one.
    • UnitedHealth Says New York Obamacare Plans Could Be in Trouble
      Gary’s Thoughts: Obamacare is a scam, is a sham and sucks. Media refuse to report higher premiums, lower coverage, higher deductibles.

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks fell hard on Wednesday after oil slid to an 11-year low, gasoline futures plunged over 8% and the White House confirmed N. Korea most likely tested a Nuclear bomb. Economic data was mixed to mostly weaker than expected which echoes what Gar has been telling you for months – the market’s are forecasting a global recession.

Gary’s Thoughts: As I write this, China is again halted limit down.  Our futures feeling the effect…but that can change over night. I am afraid much of what I told you that I was worried about is coming to fruition. Meddling in markets is EVENTUALLY a bad thing. I have been using the words ULTIMATE OUTCOME…and not liking what that may be. You stop people from selling, it just creates more vicious selling. You rig markets. Eventually, markets stick the middle finger back at you. This may be a very big middle finger.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are down sharply (Dow futures are down over 250 points as of this writing) on Wednesday after oil plunged to an 11-year low and rumors spread that N. Korea conducted a nuclear test overnight. There’s a slew of economic data (below) being released today culminating with the Fed minutes being released at 2pm EST. Keep in mind, these are the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting when the Fed raised rates by a quarter point for the first rate hike since June 2006. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015. Leadership continues to get more and more “narrow” and most of the market remains in bad shape.

Gary’s Thoughts:  It’s a freaking bear market. Get used to it. In bear markets, surprises happen to the downside. In bear markets, bad news is no longer ignored.  We have told you in recent weeks that the bear market in stocks will become more apparent as the major indices play catch-up with the average stock. We told you we weren’t so worried about the December but were quite worried about January. So far, January sucks…and it was right out of the gate.

We can go on and on but we won’t. All we can tell you is that if this continues, you best not argue with it as most on Wall Street will tell you not to worry. If you want to know how we got here, just go back to Gary K.com and read all the reports of the past few months. This topping process has been classic as sector by sector, stock by stock, the markets internals went south. It’s now just a matter of the major indices catching up…which as we told you, has always happened at this juncture. As the rest of the market tops, relative strength can be seen in Food,drugs,beverages,alcohol,household products,water utilities, guns and defense as everyone likes a good war. These areas are screaming…and we mean SCREAMING RECESSION. The market is a lot smarter than all of us including Janet and the Fed who waited years to raise rates into this. Almost too funny…but is actually scary.

 

 

 

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
  • International Trade 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index 9:45 AM ET
  • Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • N. Korea conducted a Nuclear Test overnight
      Gary’s Thoughts: Not sure I believe this jsut yet but how did that Clinton agreement go? How about Obama’s agreement with Iran?
    • Deutsche Bank cuts U.S. GDP forecasts
      Gary’s Thoughts: DUH!
    • Apple Cuts IPhone Production by 30%: Nikkei
      Gary’s Thoughts: 
    • $3.8 trillion in M&A spending makes last year a record
      Gary’s Thoughts: Sign of a top.
    • Twitter Considers Higher Character Limit for Tweets
      Gary’s Thoughts: Don’t screw with a decent idea.

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks were relatively quiet on Tuesday as the market paused to digest Monday’s very sharp sell-off. Overnight, China injected $20B to calm markets. Outside of more government interference, not much has changed. As Gary has been telling you for months, the action on Wall Street continues to get weaker, not stronger.

Gary’s Thoughts: The bear market is going to get more apparent real soon as the major indices will catch up to the average stock. We need not say more. We just don’t know if it is tomorrow, next week or next month.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are down again as the world digests Monday’s sharp world-wide sell-off. Economic data is relatively thin today with the focus being on motor vehicle sales. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015. Leadership continues to get more and more “narrow” and most of the market remains in bad shape.

Gary’s Thoughts: We read somewhere the Atlanta Fed cut its GDP forecast for Q4 to 0.7%…which is a big drop from Q3. That means Yellen raised rates into a real slowdown. The Fed waited years to raise rates and they do it while commodities crash, China slumps, markets are in trouble and GDP is cut. Thrilling! Short term, anything is possible. Big picture remains yuck and is getting yuckier with yesterday’s action.

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Bill Clinton Steps Back Into Campaign Spotlight
      Gary’s Thoughts: No thanks! We do not like influence peddling, money grubbing ex-Presidents. And we didn’t even mention the women thing. 
    • Tesla Stresses Quality Over Quantity as Model X Deliveries Begin
      Gary’s Thoughts: How about making money?
    • Manufacturing in U.S. Contracts at Fastest Pace in Six Years
      Gary’s Thoughts: Told ya…told ya.
    • GM Eyes the Future With $500M Bet on Lyft
      Gary’s Thoughts: Driverless cars? 

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks tanked on Monday after a new round of selling began in China. Overnight, Chinese stocks plunged a whopping 7% which triggered a world wide sell-off across the globe. Stocks in China were halted after new circuit breakers were introduced today. Monday was the first trading day for the month, quarter and year and the worst opening day for Wall Street since 1932! As Gary has been telling you for months, the action on Wall Street continues to get weaker, not stronger.

Gary’s Thoughts: Decent rebound into the close which may enable some upside testing but that is the trees. The forest is simple. More deterioration on a day like today as we crossed off about 50 names that had been holding up. Odds favor after any bounce, more nausea to come. As far as China, we have been telling you for quite a while that they are nuts. If you restrict sellers, you just build up more energy on the sell side when the day of reckoning comes. 

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are down sharply this morning dragged lower by a new round of selling in Asia. The selling began in China when their stock market plunged over 7% and triggered new circuit breakers that were put in place today. The new measures were announced after last summer’s steep decline. Monday marks the first trading day for the month, quarter and year. Stocks ended mixed in 2015 with all the popular indices ending lower except for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The DJ Industrial Average, Dow Transports, S&P 500, S&P 400 (Mid-Caps), S&P 600 (small caps), Russell 2000 (small-caps), and NYSE Composite all fell in 2015 which illustrates what Gary has been telling you for months and months (leadership is very narrow and most of the market remains in bad shape). We’ll see what happens in 2016 but as of now, the overall action suggests lower, not higher, prices will follow.

Gary’s Thoughts: HAPPY NEW YEAR! Do not forget what we have been writing about for months.

Economic Data:

  • PMI Manufacturing Index 9:45 AM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET
  • TD Ameritrade IMX 12:30 PM ET
  • Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure 2:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Chinese stocks plunge 7%, trigger world wide sell off.
      Gary’s Thoughts: Yup!
    • Obama May Travel to Cuba as Part of Final Year’s To-Do List
      Gary’s Thoughts: Travel to Cuba…but not Israel!
    • S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average Experienced Their Worst Year Since 2008
      Gary’s Thoughts: It’s 2016 that matters now.
    • Iran see ‘divine vengeance’ after Saudis execute cleric
      Gary’s Thoughts: We are still depressed about the Giants.