The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks fell hard on Friday as oil prices plunged nearly 5%. Stocks tried to bounce on Thursday but the fact that they can’t bounce from deeply oversold levels shows you how weak the market is right now. Stocks will be closed on Monday for the holiday but markets overseas will be open.

Gary’s Thoughts:  Yuck…but happy 3 day weekend!

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are down big on Friday giving back most Thursday’s strong upside reversal. Once again oil prices are tumbling and global markets are selling off. We have mentioned countless times that the market was deeply oversold and way over due to bounce. The inability to bounce speaks volumes to how weak the market is right now. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015 and has nailed it again for you in 2016.

Gary’s Thoughts:  “Bear market rallies are sharp, quick, make you feel good, suck you in and bury you soon after.” That’s our quote. But rallies are right now…ONLY LASTING A DAY before selling off sharply. Do we need to say this is the worst of all worlds for the bulls? Lastly, the esteemed Larry Fink of Blackrock said this morning that he doesn’t think this is a real bear market. With all due respect, either he is not telling the truth or he is living in Fantasy Land. If this is not a bear market, we hate to see what a bear market looks like.

Economic Data:

  • PPI-FD 8:30 AM ET
  • Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
  • Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET
  • William Dudley Speaks 9:00 AM ET
  • Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
  • Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET
  • Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET
  • John Williams Speaks 11:00 AM ET
  • Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET
  • Rob Kaplan Speaks 1:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • The oversold bounce we have told you about finally happened on Thursday and we’ll see if it continues…
      Gary’s Thoughts: Ain’t happening!
    • Fed’s Bullard Did a 180 and Said Oil’s Fall May Delay Inflation Return to 2%
      Gary’s Thoughts: Gee…had no idea the Fed would start their flip-flopping.
    • The 6th GOP was hosted by Fox Business on Thursday
      Gary’s Thoughts: Marvelous debate!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
The long over due bounce finally occurred on Thursday after the S&P 500 came in within a few points of “re-testing” August and September 2015’s low. All week, we have been telling you the market was very oversold and way overdue to bounce. That is exactly what happened on Thursday. The key now is to analyze the health of this bounce and see if it can last more than a few days.

Gary’s Thoughts: Best guess…think August 26th…more upside, back and fill, possible retest but think low is in for right now…but I do not think there is a ton of upside…but stretched, extended and oversold as all heck will now get worked off.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures were lower but turned higher before Thursday’s open as investors try to recover from Wednesday’s strong sell off. Keep in mind, the market is very oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point.  The fact that it refuses to bounce illustrates how weak the market is right now. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015 and has nailed it again for you in 2016.

Gary’s Thoughts:  Earning’s season is at hand. One has to think that maybe reactions would be better than usual after a 1600 point Dow drop in last than 2 weeks of trading. Markets are now overdue for some good bounces but could have said that 3 days ago. 

Economic Data:

  • James Bullard Speaks 8:15 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims  8:30 AM ET
  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Stocks Plunge On New Round of Selling On Wednesday
      Gary’s Thoughts: That was gross yet too complacent. Need some panic to end this deluge for now.
    • Sean Penn lied about ‘El Chapo’ trafficking claim: lawyer
      Gary’s Thoughts: Go back to bad movies!
    • Al Jazeera to cease U.S. operations by April end
      Gary’s Thoughts:  Who?

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks plunged on Wednesday as a new round of selling hit Wall Street. This time they went after almost all areas of the market including the big glamour names such as Amazon ($AMZN) and Netflix ($NFLX) that had been holding up rather well in late 2015. The fact that Wall Street can not bounce from deeply oversold levels clearly illustrates how weak the market is right now.

Gary’s Thoughts:  WOW! The bounce lasted a little over 1 day, was anemic and then slammed.

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up on Wednesday as the market tries to bounce from deeply oversold levels. Keep in mind, the market is very oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015 and has nailed it again for you in 2016.

Gary’s Thoughts:  We are not just watchers of the markets but we are watchers of the masses. We watch how Wall Street reacts  to the markets. We watch how the average investor reacts to markets, especially the bad markets!

After 1,600 down points in 8 days, after a commodities crash, after retail, transports, small caps, mid caps, NYSE and so many other areas continue to get bludgeoned,  after world markets get blasted, NOW one firm sends out an analyst calling for a global crisis because of China. NOW another big firm comes out and advises clients to sell stocks on any bounce. NOW many other firms are coming out talking about $10 oil after missing the 60% drop. NOW another major company calls for a big bear market. HMMMMM! Must be time for a good rally.

As we told you, we thought we were a day or two away from a decent low. After all, don’t you think 1600 Dow points in 8 days should do the trick near-term? We think there is a good chance a near term low is now at hand. We have no clue about price or duration. The last rally/bounce had a duration of 10 weeks but kept getting narrower on the way up, leading us to tell you another top of importance was imminent. Rallies in bearish phases are supposed to wipe the smiles off the bear’s faces and embolden the bulls into believing the worst is over.  As of this second, the big picture has not changed. The near-term possibly has. As always, we will keep you informed. We will know a lot more based on how strong any rally/bounce is from here.

Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
  • Eric Rosengren Speaks 7:45 AM ET
  • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Charles Evans Speaks 1:00 PM ET
  • 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
  • Beige Book 2:00 PM ET
  • Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • VW CEO Flubs Interview With Apology Tour Off To Rocky Start
      Gary’s Thoughts: How not to handle a crisis!
    • GM Faulty-Switch Trial Begins With Claim of Deadly Cover-Up
      Gary’s Thoughts: If true, send someone to a 6 by 9 cell.
    • It’s obvious Apple is working on a car: Elon Musk
      Gary’s Thoughts: Duh!

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks ended higher after vacillating between positive and negative territory on Tuesday as oil prices traded all over the map. In the morning, oil prices up nicely but turned negative and actually fell below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years! Stocks turned higher after oil prices stopped falling. Stocks are trying to bounce from deeply oversold levels.The inability for stocks to bounce speaks volumes at how weak the market is right now.

Gary’s Thoughts: A long day of back and forth…big gap sold…market goes negative…ramps in last hour. We call it a huge, extreme oversold condition and expect more upside. How it gets there…how long it goes for? No clue. We also expect major action out of China to suppress selling…which may or may not help. 

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up on Tuesday as investors digest Monday’s wild up, down and then up again session. Keep in mind, the market is deeply oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015.

Gary’s Thoughts:  

We forgot to mention one thing yesterday. We do not think we have ever seen big down days on the day of the State of the Union speech but will have to look it up.
We told you yersterday we thought a good low is being carved out at Monday’s low…and today, we walk into a nice gap to the upside…yippee!
Yesterday’s reversal and today’s big gap insures a breather. After 1600 points down in 8 days, YOU HAVE TO GET A RALLY EVENTUALLY  and as we told you, it usually starts on a big gap. A strong Europe this morning leads the way.
We suspect a good low has been put in a for a while to make the bulls feel better and wipe the smiles off of the bear’s faces. Again, WE IN NO WAY THINK THIS CHANGES THE BIG PICTURE. Big rallies occur in bearish markets.
Lastly, earnings are straight away. For a change, ON A POSITIVE NOTE, earnings guidance has come down markedly so the game of “beat the number” could come easily. Whether or not that lights a fire under stocks, we shall see. Keep in mind, earnings growth stinks and as well as sales growth. For example, Apple’s growth last 4 quarters were +48, +40, +45 and +38. Estimates are now to be a whopping +5…a major deceleration. Even when accounting for the usual Apple sandbagging, it will still be a big drop in the growth rate.
Stay tuned. We suspect a lot of whippiness. (We are not sure what whippiness means but you get the picture). We will know a lot more as this rally/bounce plays out. 

Economic Data:

  • Stanley Fischer Speaks 5:30 AM ET
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • JOLTS 10:00 AM ET
  • Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 3:15 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Oil prices fell 6% on Monday and plunged to the lowest level since 2003!
      Gary’s Thoughts: Unreal…just unreal!
    • Hillary Clinton seeks surcharge tax on wealthiest tier of Americans
      Gary’s Thoughts: We have a lot of 4-letter words we can use when describing this person but will remain a gentlemen. There is never enough OF YOUR MONEY for people like this. We will leave it at that.

The Closing Look

Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks traded all over the map on Monday. Overnight, Chinese stocks plunged another 5% which was not idea. US stocks opened higher but quickly turned negative after new sellers showed up and distributed stock. Towards the close, a big rip enabled the Dow to finish positive but the Nasdaq still finished down. Crude oil plunged over 6% and hit the lowest level since 2003! Copper prices plunged to a fresh 6 year low which illustrates the market’s concern about weaker global demand. Biotech stocks ($IBB) fell over 4% and took out September’s 2015’s low which is not ideal for the bulls. In M&A news, Shire ($SHPG) said it will acquire drug maker Baxalta ($BXLT) for $32 billion in cash and stock.

Gary’s Thoughts: 

Put a crayon in your 3 year old’s hand. Let him scribble on a piece of paper. That’s what today’s intraday action looks like…but:
Since we received dozens of emails and phone calls, we wanted to give you some short term thoughts after Monday’s wild action. In fact at 3:18pm the NASDAQ was down at whopping 57 points by the close it was barely down!
In our long missive to you last night, we told you we would not be surprised by a vicious rally/bounce and that it would be normal to have one to wring out such an oversold condition. The hardest thing to do is to gauge and game the short-term movements but here we go.
We think a decent near-term low could be forming in and around the lows of Monday. This simply means after about 1600 DOW points in eight days, after the NASDAQ dropped from 5116 to 4573 in that same amount of time, sellers are washed out and buyers get a little bit of the upper hand. We suspect this is akin to what happened  on August 24 of 2015 when the markets experienced the fake open and the big washout.  Keep in mind, this in no way changes the overall big picture and you know what that is. Markets do not go straight down though after the past 8 days, one wonders if that is true. We will be smart and leave it at that.

We were asked if this has anything to do with Fed’s Lockhart’s flip-flop as he was quoted as saying there may not be enough fresh data on inflation to support an interest rate hike by March! We don’t know but just realize IT NEVER ENDS! THEY REF– USE TO LEAVE MARKETS ALONE!

 

The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up on Monday as investors digest last week’s historic sell-off. The market is deeply oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015.

Gary’s Thoughts: Our measures of overbought/oversold are showing the most oversold conditions we have seen since near the lows in late Sept/early October. It is never a guarantee but these conditions always get worked off with time and price. Price moving up as days go by. THIS DOES NOT CHANGE THE BIG PICTURE. The Dow just dropped 1400 points in 7 days. This drop must be worked off. 

Economic Data:

  • 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
  • 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • Dennis Lockhart Speaks 12:40 PM ET
  • Rob Kaplan Speaks 7:50 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Powerball jackpot hits $1.3B, new world record
      Gary’s Thoughts: We are very surprised no one won in the last drawing. We expect 5-10 winners on the next one. Please be us! 
    • China forex regulator says will ramp up risk control efforts
      Gary’s Thoughts: How about all the regulators in China just getting the hell out of the business of rigging their markets. In fact, how about every government and regulator around the globe just going away and let the markets be.
    • 2016 brings more pain to U.S. shale companies as crude sinks
      Gary’s Thoughts: Unreal story of boom and bust. Never in our wildest did we think price would go so low…so quickly.