THERE’S ALWAYS THE GREEN NEW DEAL

Just a few minutes ago, Amazon announced that they were telling the local politicians around NYC to take a flying leap. Actually, that is not what they said exactly but nevertheless, Amazon announced that :

“For Amazon, the commitment to build a new headquarters requires positive, collaborative relationships with state and local elected officials who will be supportive over the long-term. A number of state & local politicians have made it clear that they oppose our presence and will not work with us to build the type of relationships that are required to go forward with the project we and many others envisioned in Long Island City.”

In case you did not know, Amazon:

Would bring 25,000 high paying jobs which could be as many as 40,000.

Invest more than $2.5 billion.

Construct 4 million square feet of space which could rise to 8 million square feet.

Officials expected the online retailer to generate $27.5 billion in revenue for the city and state over the next 25 years, with the city hoping to net roughly $13.5 billion. This according to the mayor and the governor said yesterday. A separate study commissioned by the state predicted that Amazon would generate $186 billion for the state economy over the next 25 years.

The complaint from politicians was that they were giving the company too much in subsidies to make the move. The same politicians that inefficiently and ineffectively deployed money to boondoggles have a magnificent opportunity put in their hands and what do they do? The usual.

This past Monday, one of those politicians appeared on Fox Business Network’s (if your cable company does not have it, demand it) Bulls and Bears show hosted by the brilliant David Asman. As a guest, I got to ask the man a question. I went last. After listening to him call Amazon an extortionist, I was taken aback.  I asked the gentleman if he realized he was accusing Amazon and Jeff Bezos was committing a felony. I then asked if he was worried about missing on a magnificent opportunity. He could care less.

This is what the gentleman and the rest that opposed Amazon do not understand. It is not just the hard dollars but what those hard dollars would do…and for the long term. Imagine:

Amazon moves in. 25,000-40,000 people earning 6 figures moving into your area. Because of this, construction starts. Because construction starts, those jobs are created. Because construction starts, materials need to be bought. Because of this, companies that supply all those materials are doing more business…which increases their profits and potentially they hire more people. Because of this construction, new roads, new access, sewers and infrastructure start up. You remember how important infrastructure is? Because of all this, even more jobs are created. All those jobs created increase the customer base. Because of the increased customer base, retail and restaurants do better. Because they are doing better, maybe they expand, creating even more jobs. Those new jobs at retail and restaurants also expand the customer base. As more and more companies see how well those retail and restaurants are doing, they now decide to open up in Long Island City. Because they open in Long Island City, they now have to hire more and more people. On and on and on. But we are not done.

Because so many more people and businesses see the success of Amazon and the success of all these businesses opening up, Long Island City becomes a magnet for even more businesses. Doctors, dentists, accountants, real estate brokers, stock brokers, emergency clinics, gyms, spas, flower shops, gas stations, proctologists (that’s for the politicians) and dozens of more professions start opening up to serve the tens of thousands of people flocking to Long Island City. Because all these places open up and so many families move there, new schools, nurseries, churches, synagogues, day care and everything under the sun have to be built. Because all those new places need to hire new people, once again the customer base expands creating a virtuous cycle…all because of what Amazon started.

But no! Even though a good part of Amazon’s deal was performance based, screw you Bezos. Even though a gargantuan long term opportunity for Long Island City was at hand, screw you Jeff Bezos. Even though the longer term tax base would expand (and we know how much NYC politicians love a new tax base), screw you Jeff Bezos. But it now ends up the other way around. Jeff Bezos just told the local politicians to go screw themselves and rightfully so.

But don’t worry Mr. and Mrs. local politician, you always have AOC’s (who was loudly against Amazon) New Green Deal. Maybe the high speed rail from Coney Island to Long Island City will create those 40,ooo jobs.

PRE MARKET

So we have had a little pullback the past few days.

It is being reported that:

Europe is in recession.

Earnings are going to be flat year over year, coming down markedly over past months.

Total debt will hit $22 trillion real soon.

China’s economy is heading south quickly.

What happens?

We get a nice gap to the upside as foreign markets ramp. What gives?

Remember…easy money. Powell 180 and now talking more QE at any time. Europe abandoned any thought of tightening. Asia the same.

That’s all.

Leadership best in SOFTWARE…with a bunch reporting in the next couple of weeks.

Lesson #1…Never argue with the easy money. Lesson #2….see lesson #1.

THE ROYAL SCAM

BY GARY KALTBAUM FEBRUARY 10, 2019

“Anyone who has a billion dollars either exploited a monopoly that should have been broken up, got inside information unavailable to other investors, bribed some politicians, or inherited the money from their parents (who did one of the above).”

Guess who said this?/ Not Warren, not Sanders, not Cortez. This one came from Robert Reich a professor at UC Berkley and Secretary of Labor from 93-97 as well as President Obama’s economic transition team. Do not dare make over $999,999,999.99 you immoral slug!

The assault on capitalism continues. This is not the first person to utter such words and will not be the last. It used to be these people were a little bit shy about showing their hate of capitalism and their love of socialism but these days, they believe they have the upper hand. At least their poll numbers say so.

Many are making fun of Sanders, Warren, Cortez and people like Reich. We will not. We will take them seriously. We will take them dead seriously. You should too. They really mean it. What interests us is that these are the same people that along with their media sycophants call President Trump a dictator. This interests us because a dictator does not lower taxes and get rid of regulations. A dictator looks to do the opposite. So just who are the dictators?

Dictators try to take over big swaths of the economy. Guess what the two largest parts of our economy are? Healthcare and energy. Create a crisis. Demand to take it over and tax the hell out of everyone to pay for the crisis.

Dictators want to confiscate wealth. In order to do this, they must pit the “immoral” wealthy against the not wealthy. Here are the proposals from just the past few weeks:

90% tax rates

70% tax rates

77% estate tax

wealth confiscation (we refuse to call it a tax)

“90%, 80%, 70%…we can look at that ”

VAT tax

trading tax

carbon tax

higher payroll tax

It seems everyone is outdoing each other.

Dictators want to take away choice.

Air travel? Screw you! We’ll tell you how many jets can fly and where.

You work in the airline industry? Screw you. Find something else to do. Just because U.S. passenger and cargo carriers employ more than 700,000 people worldwide and help drive more than 10 million American jobs….screw you.

Eat meat? Screw you. We will tell you what to eat because we know better.

You work or own any franchises at McDonalds, Burger King, Wendy’s, In and Out? Screw you! Find something else to do. Better yet, sell tofu!

Drive cars and trucks? Screw you. We will tell you what you can drive.

Own a building, own a house, own a condo…own anything that doesn’t fit their template. Screw you! Screw you and how much it would cost to retrofit the way we want you to.

Dictators promise the masses free everything.

Free education for life. Don’t worry. We are taking the producers down a few pegs to pay for this.

Free money. Don’t worry. Chicago, who is broke and can’t cover their pensions, promises to pay you not to work. They will just run up more debt.

Free healthcare. Hey…go to the emergency room as many times as you like. (Please do not read what is happening with the NHS in the UK!)

Here’s a job. Will guarantee everyone a government job whether it is needed or not because who gives a crap about supply and demand when you are dictators.

You are unwilling to get a job. That’s fine. Just vote for us and we will pay you to sit on your couch, watch Netflix (we will even pay for that) and eat cheetos.

The problem is AND WE ARE NOT KIDDING…if you confiscated every dime earned by every person in this country…it would not pay for these dictator’s wants. No…not kidding. Our rusty abacus is working just fine. This doesn’t include the complete destruction of the economy leading to a massive drop in revenues.

Dictators need backers.

Oped NY Times by David Leonhardt…”It’s radical not to tax the rich more!”

Paul Krugman calls the coffee king a “radical centrist!”

SNL, late night hosts mainstream media. Funny, I don’t remember SNL making fun of Cortez for what can only be considered a comedic proposal. Funny, the late night hosts treat these socialist proposals as God-like. Remember and never forget what they all did to Palin for calling for lower taxes and smaller government. The horror of it all. They tried to destroy the woman while lauding the dictators.

There is a reason why the “Green Deal” was taken off-line and is already in flux. It sucks. It makes no sense. It is fantasy land. It just about calls for the elimination of air travel, anything gas powered (cars, trucks, boats, lawn mowers), nuclear power and whoa is you if you are cow with colitis. Miss Cortez has gone from “it is a complete government takeover” to “how dare they say it is a complete government takeover!” By the way, we would like to know who is going to check on the 94,000,000 or so cattle for their rates of flatulence.

Dictators are socialists with your money. They are capitalists with their own money.

Bernie flies private. Has more than one home. We all know the utter scam Elizabeth Warren pulled off.

Speaking of Elizabeth Warren, she was quoted as saying ” We’re building a grassroots movement to give the power back to the people!” Really. You are successful. You are wealthy. You are a great producer? Screw you! We are taking more. You want to be wealthy? Screw you. Every rung up the ladder, we will be taking more and more from you. Choice is taken away. Dollars are confiscated. Power back to the people…our a–!

Socialists, dictators…by any other name. This is no longer comedic. This is serious. They are no longer shy. Remember, their enemy is success. Their enemy are the producers. Their mark is everyone that wants to be successful, convincing them they are not because others are. They want you to believe there is no hope because everyone is trying to screw you. Just read these people’s resumes’ and you will see a long list of living off the taxpayer while never working in private business. Accomplishments? They were elected!

Socialists and dictators are the definitive enemy. We have blatant evidence just 2,700 miles south of where we are sitting. A country destroyed. A people destroyed. Hope destroyed. All by two words…socialists and dictators. Where are the freaking centrists?

MORE CENTRAL BANK

-We really thought we would be getting a few more days of pullback/corrective work…but then late Friday:-
-“U.S. central bankers are currently debating whether it should confine its controversial tool of bond buying to purely emergency situations or if it should turn to that tool more regularly, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Friday.” –
 
-We are not sure what time this was released but we do know everyone picked up on it in the last 30 minutes of the day…and away markets rebounded. You already know how we feel about central banks. It just seems to be getting worse and worse. We were in front of thinking Powell was just like the rest but this is now getting ridiculous. First, he does the 180 and now he floats this. Leave no doubt this stuff is not released by accident but with markets in mind.-
-So…that may be it for the little correction. We came off our bearish stance January 4th for just one reason…the about face by Powell. And now, more fuel for an already lit market while Europe heads into recession, Japan heads into recession and China heads south.-
-BUT still wanted to remind you of some of the things we have been seeing…-
-We started to see some breakouts fail.-
–We started to see oils, financials, biotech and other areas roll over. This simply means they all stalled at an area for a few days and then broke below that area. At the very least, areas to probably avoid.-
-RETAIL acts terrible…especially some of the big names.-
-Important names that acted poorly off of are earnings getting slammed. Names like Amazon, Netflix, Tesla and a few others are no longer leading up but actually leading down. Based on some of these areas weakness, we expect any further rally to be more  narrow.-
-Fundamentally, you are seeing numbers that we thought would show up. Europe, if not in recession, is quite close. Japan is in contraction. China? Who knows what China’s numbers are but lets just say if things were great, they would not be easing like Bernanke and adding a whopping $83 billion to the system in past weeks.-