Well that was ugly…a big distribution day in growth as the NASDAQ/NDX just about tag the 50 day moving average again. We have seen this before with every time, the 50 day holding and price turning back up. We will let market do the bidding here. Just keep a wide eye open. If the 50 day breaks, trouble for growth and growth could be way overdue. Again, it has held before.
TRUMP raises the bar on tariffs. So far, no biggie. We think…eventually biggie. Tariffs suck. They suck bad. Other countries may feel the effect but eventually, we will feel the effect.
Watching the dollar here…seems like a top may be tracing out. If that’s the case, watch commodities, gold/silver and emerging markets. They could benefit as well as big multi-nationals. A top for the dollar has not been completed yet but certainly starting to trace a top out.
Futures down a wee bit. Trump raises the stakes on tariffs over the weekend but no harm done.
Overbought, a little froth in marijuana…but indices act fine. BUT there remains many bearish areas…so not much has changed. We have been in tavel hell so bigger report tonight.
Very quiet earnings week FDX, AZO, CPRT, MU…and that’s about it.
We believe there is a decent chance we saw a couple of changes recently, at least in the near term.
As you know, we have been bearish on many areas of the globe. After months of us warning to avoid, many are now coming around to the fact these areas were in bear markets. We think there is now a chance a decent low is being put in. This does not mean they are starting a new bull market but we think at the very least, a rally has started. Of course, it can turn into more. Nothing is for sure but we noticed a successful retest in China as well as many other areas. Many China ADRs may be putting in near-term lows.
In spite of so many areas of weakness in the U.S. market, notice one thing…the major indices refuse to buckle. Pullbacks have been nominal. Also, the important SEMICONDUCTORS were getting slammed again yesterday only to reverse most of the losses…another good near-term sign. Any selling has been defended and suspect that leads to some upside. It is good news that all major indices held support. It is good news that the TRANSPORTS have moved to new highs. It is good news that growth areas remain strong. And yes, all this is happening in September.
As always, market by market, sector by sector, stock by stock…