PRE MARKET

U.S.
ECB
JAPAN
ENGLAND
DENMARK
AUSTRALIA
RUSSIA
BRAZIL
INDIA
CHINA
HONG KONG
THAILAND
MEXICO
PHILIPPINES
TURKEY
SOUTH AFRICA
INDONESIA
KOREA
All are easing…with a bunch with negative rates. Not only do we have full employment but we are NOT in recession yet we are still easing and amazingly, “MAY RESUME ORGANIC BALANCE SHEET GROWTH EARLIER THAN THOUGHT!” Yes…Powell going to print money. One has to believe markets will not be unhappy with all this. The big 4 are nearing old highs. Internals not even close but they could improve if the big 4 move out.

PRE MARKET

Futures down a wee bit. Considering FDX down $19 and ADBE down $9…that’s not bad.

Blah blah blah the fed today. Blah blah blah easier money…blah blah blah.

The OIL gap on Saudi news quickly unwinds.

PRE MARKET

The big story is oil prices and what to do. We freely admit that we dont know. The news is fluid. Normally, we would tell you this move will be fleeting but if the Saudis come back and state it will take a long time to get back on line, that would be less than thrilling.

The fed tomorrow. We were in the camp 1/2 point cut when rates were below 1.5% on the 10 year. We now believe 1/4 point as the 10 year is back up to 1.835.

Markets have loved easier money for over 10 years. This year is the same. Every pivot to easier by the fed coincided with a market bottom. This time?

Markets are quieting down in here as the big 4 approach the highs. There is nothing wrong with this.

Down and out SOFTWARE woke up yesterday but most all remain below resistance/50 day average with some below the 200 day…but they are higher beta.

OIL MOVES

SAUDI OIL ATTACKS…oil prices higher…oil stocks gap up…buy into gold and bonds…markets down but not by much.

The question is what next? The president used the language “locked and loaded!” Stay tuned. Markets have ripped the stuffings out of growth and into value. Not sure that lasts.

The good news is Saudi oil not as important as it was years ago but still important.

BLAME THE MODERATORS

Sorry…these presidential debates are supposed to pull the covers off of all the proposals coming from the presidential candidates. These debates are supposed to hold feet to the fire. These debates are not for a candidate to provide their talking points. Unfortunately, for the most part, these debates were just that.

We do have to hand it to Mr. Ramos for asking Biden about the Obama administration deporting 3 million people. We have to hand it to Linsey Davis for holding Kamala’s feet to the fire on her past as a prosecutor. But that’s all we got for you because the rest did not help.
Bernie Sanders was asked whether his brand of socialism is the same as Venezuela’s. Duh! What did you think he would say? But where was the next question? Where was the factual next question? “Senator Sanders, you say your socialism is different but your proposals are just about the exact same proposals as Hugo Chavez’ proposals. How do you square with that?” Nope! No follow up.
Did you hear any questions on debt and deficits? Nope. Did anyone even talk about jobs?
Did anyone ask about today’s economic numbers and that by just about every measure, unemployment for many areas of the economy are at their lowest ever? Nope! That would have not fit their template.
Was there a follow up to  “hell yes, we are going to take away your AR-15, your AK-47? ” We are not even in the business of moderating but how about the simple follow up: “Who is going to do the confiscating? Are you going to send in the military to go door by door or a bunch of police? Are you worried this could lead to violence?” Maybe we missed those questions.
How about all the talk about getting rid of fossil fuels? Where was this question: “If you are going to get rid of fossil fuels, what do we do about air travel?” Nope!
How about asking Bernie the simplest of questions? “You say your healthcare program will only cost $32 trillion over 10 years…please name one big government program that has come in on budget?” Didn’t get that one. How about this simple question? “If there are no deductibles, no co-pay and no premiums, what is to keep people from visiting their doctors or emergency rooms or clinics as many times as possible with little cuts, with headaches or for things they may now need attention to?” Didn’t see that one. Did not see “Have you seen the numbers on wait times and shortages in the UK with their NHS program? Nope…didn’t get that one.
How about this list?
Wealth confiscation
Leave the country wealth confiscation if you want to get out of Dodge tax
War tax
Gas tax
Financial transaction tax
VAT tax
Higher payroll tax
Higher Corporate tax
Higher estate tax
Higher income tax…including some proposals as high as 70%
Higher middle income tax
Carbon tax
$1,000/month giveaway tax
Investment income tax
These are the taxes proposed at one time by any of these candidates. We left out the NYC Mayor’s “tax the hell out of the wealthy tax” because root canal polls better than him.  But where was good old George Steph asking about all these taxes and whether any of these would hamstring the great unemployment numbers? Nope…not a damn word.
Where were the questions about the people being responsible for their own lives? Hard work? Sweat, toil, upward mobility, risk capital? Nope! Any questions on rugged individualism? Nope!
What about the question that should have been asked about dire predictions that “we have 10 years or else?” Where was the question “You know Al Gore, 13 years ago, stated we were doomed in 10 years, why should we now believe your prediction of doom in 10 years?” Nope! Nada!
And then there is “capitalist” Elizabeth Warren…the woman that says she believes in markets “from her head to her toe!” Interesting. A woman that continues to rip corporate America and again ripped corporate America at the debate, not one question about the greatness of corporate America, the wealth of corporate America, the new wonder drugs from drug companies, the new technological advances, the philanthropy, the enabling of upward mobility…nope! Just let her rip away with not one follow up question. Not one question of her, Bernie and a few others wanting to either break up, take over or downright shut down industry…not one question. We would have asked Senator Warren this simple question? “Can you name one major industry that you do not want to take over, break up or shut down?” Think hard now! After all, EDUCATION, ENERGY, HEALTHCARE, INSURANCE, TECHNOLOGY, BANKS, WALL STREET, AUTOS…that’s her list, not ours. Nope…nothing! When she was finally asked about whether she would raise taxes on the middle class…she would not answer. She would not have got away with that if we were doing the asking.
Almost 3 hours of blah blah blah. Almost 3 hours of talking points. Almost 3 hours of not digging deep, no simple and logical follow-ups. Almost 3 hours of boilerplate. Almost 3 hours that gave someone like me, that is looking for someone, anyone, any party to come around and be the candidate of efficient and effective government, balanced budgets, a candidate that understands it is WE THE PEOPLE, not WE THE DC. Looks like that ain’t going to happen and the national media ain’t helping. Let’s just say these candidates were lucky we were not asking the questions. We would have really represented the people.

PRE MARKET STUFF

A couple of themes still playing out.

In the past few days, value has taken over growth. This after a whole year of the opposite. We were sent a study that in the past few days, stocks under $5 were up 20%. When we do our scans, unbelievable moves from stocks that were at new yearly lows. Keep in mind, many have horrible earnings and sales numbers.

Bond yields continue to back up as that final move looked a wee bit climactic. As we write this, the 10 year has backed up from 1.45% to 1.84% in just over a week. Anyone who bought long in the last week or so, not happy campers.

Financials, especially the down and out regionals, are benefiting most from the higher rates as the spread widens. We have to mention JP Morgan is on the verge of breaking out to all time highs, moving out of an almost 2 year trading range. To give you an idea, JP Morgan is up 250% in the past 12 years but:

Santander: -47% BBVA: -61% ING: -66% Credit Suisse: -71% Barclays: -79% Soc Gen: -81% Deutsche Bank: -92%

The SEMICONDUCTORS remain quite strong in the face of crappy earnings and sales but the big bet is that the bottom is in for the cycle. The problem with this is these companies always say the bottom is in. Regardless, our motto is always to watch this group as it continues to lead markets up and down. It is now back near the old highs.

With rates backing up, we think the Fed no longer needs to lower rates by 1/2 point. When the 10 year was under 1.5%, they needed to catch up. No longer. Then again, anything is possible with these easy money dolts.

Speaking of easy money dolts, Draghi, on his way out of the ECB decides to lower rates again and print more money even though rates are already big time negative and even though they have already printed a ton of money. We think it was Einstein who said: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results!” Unfortunately this is going to affect the long term health of the EU as it has done nothing for no one and guarantees a burst bubble down the road. On top of that, they continue to screw their savers.

Speaking of negative rates, we wish the president would lock it up on jawboning the fed. There is a reason why other countries have negative rates. They are basket cases. Yes, with $1 trillion deficits, we are also a basket case but less so. The president needs to be very careful with his words. He railed against Obama and Bernake for their 0% rates and their printing of money. Quite interesting to see the change of stance once you are running for re-election.

Will have our thoughts on the latest debate over the weekend as we have yet to watch most of it. Somehow, we will get through the 3 hours of socialist nonsense.