For Thursday, support holds!

We purposely put out support levels yesterday. Simply put, they either hold and give markets a chance or they give way and all heck potentially breaks loose. Why would all heck break loose? This occurs when the big money recognizes an area that was holding…no longer is…which invites more selling. But major indices held on Thursday but remain rangebound. We hate the word rangebound. We are not even sure if it is a word but we use it anyhow. Rangebound action simply holds in the downside but caps the upside. For obvious reasons, this makes trading tougher as you have neither wind at your back or wind in your face.

But lots of jello moving on the plate as earning’s season has handed us a bunch of good reactions in the form of gapping up or breaking out on volume. Names that have shown this action include AMZN,BIIB,BA,EA,FSL,HAR, NFLX,NOW,SYNA,SBUX and others. Just because something breaks out or gaps up on earnings does not mean it will work. Names like those mentioned should be reviewed as it is usually good news when surprises occur on the upside and stock price moves in the fashion mentioned.

We will have our usual big weekend report along with our thoughts on the Super Bowl and our pick. We have only lost one Super Bowl since 2000 but must say, this game is quite tough to handicap.

Time for support levels!

First off, it is just too funny reading news reports on the Fed. We do not believe they are going to raise rates but if they did, what kind of a big deal would it be to go from 0% to 1/4%?

Just to repeat a report from a couple weeks ago…WATCH THE FINANCIALS. They are leading down and now major indices need to be watched as they have come under some serious distribution while they remain in what we call a nauseating trading range…but now, nearing the lower end of range.

So with so many areas of the market bearish and with the areas still in shape coming under pressure, here are your support levels to watch. Simply put, if they are not taken out…good…if they are…we suspect decent technical selling will show up. And unlike October when a good correction was staved off by coordinated money printing by Japan and Europe along with lowered rates in China, who is left?

DOW 17067.

S&P 1988 and then 1972.

NASDAQ 4563 and then 4547.

NDX at around 4080.

TRANSPORTS 8580.

For a change, the Russell holding up better but thinking it is just some of the January effect. Support at 1150 and then 1134.

The Fed says:

The Fed now says they can be patient on rates. Really. No kidding! As we have told you, unless the market forces their hand, the Fed will never raise rates. And it is our opinion that on any blip in markets or the economy, QE4 will be right around the corner. Eventually this teasing of the markets will fall on deaf ears as the “boy who cried wolf” may come into play. Sorry Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob with those savings.

Nice open! Bazinga!

Last night, our last words were: “We suspect the indices will show their hand soon enough.”

As we write this, the Dow has a nice 270 gap to the downside. Amazingly, 6 Dow stocks are gapping down on yuck numbers. They are MSFT,CAT,MMM,PG,DD,UTX. As you know, reactions to earnings are quite important to our work. This open will take markets well, back where they have been…in the middle of a nauseating trading range. We will leave it at that for this second as we will need to see more cards come out of the deck.

This past weekend, I stated on Fox News’ Bulls and Bears that the economy is not as good as the economic numbers portrayed. Must say, caught a little bit of @#%#@ from some who said it was just me being political. Well…have you seen the supposed fabulous retail sales from December? And this morning, did you see the durable goods number as well as last month’s revised numbers?

The supposed “good news” out of this leads to our other stance…and that is the Fed will never raise rates and more than likely, their next move would be some sort of QE4. Simply put, central banks are now in the web and addicted to the creation of funny money in order to supposedly prop things up. They have done a wonderful job propping up asset prices while destroying savers. We do not think much else. In fact, we believe they have interfered too much in economies as they refuse to let things be. Eventually a price has to be paid. We do not know when eventually is.

As far as Greece, Venezuela and other countries heading into the abyss…GOVERNMENT-CENTRIC SOCIALISM HAS ALWAYS ENDED BAD! We keep hearing about Greece’s supposed austerity over the past few years. That’s another lie. Government spending is higher than it was in 2008…so don’t believe the snowjobs…no pun intended.

Earnings time!

As we move into massive earnings and another fed week where they will say blah blah blah, maybe maybe maybe…markets remain range bound but possibly a couple of changes occurring.

We have been negative on gaming for almost a year. The group has hardly teased a change in trend. Earnings are coming out this week for a few names but a quick glance is showing the possibility that the past 6 weeks of reverse churning combined with Monday’s action is potentially putting in some kind of low. To be watched as earnings come out.

And energy…you know the story there. This is not about the price of energy but the underlying stocks. We are now seeing a definable “double bottom” pattern where so far, the test of December’s lows is holding. There is still plenty of work before things turn but just noticing the stocks now outperforming the commodity. Will need a few more cards coming out of this deck.

We have always had a motto that if they can’t sell them off, they were going higher. So far, the major indices, despite the 50-50 tape, continues to hold in nicely. We suspect the indices will show their hand soon enough. Just thinking!

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED!

As we enter the meat of earning’s season, as the ECB continuing to crush their own currency and even with the strong week, the motto is simply “not much has changed!”

The tape continues to remain split. The tape continues to be close to a 50-50 market in where bull and bear markets lie side by side. So with major indices popping back up into the middle and in some cases, the upper end of this recent range, let’s break the areas down.

We remain bearish on a long list of areas that frankly, many we have been bearish on for months. These groups are:

ENERGY,OIL&GAS,SOLARS,STEEL,COPPER,ALUMINUM,COAL,GAMING,REGIONAL BANKS,MONEY CENTER BANKS,AUTOS,CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY,INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY,INSURANCE,
BUILDING-CEMENT,RAILS,APPAREL,TRUCKING,BROADCASTING/MEDIA,HIGH YIELD, BRAZIL, RUSSIA and OTHER COMMODITY-BASED COUNTRIES, EMERGING MARKETS.

On the bullish side:

AIRLINES,BIOTECH,REITS,UTILITIES,PHARMA,RETAIL-HOME IMPROVEMENT, DRUG STORES, SUPERMARKETS,BEVERAGES,FOOD,TOBACCO,HO– USEHOLD PRODUCTS,ALCOHOL, DEFENSE,
RESTAURANTS,MANAGED CARE, CRUISE LINES.

A few other notes:

SEMIS are now mixed as a few names have broken down.

GOLD and SILVER continue to emerge but near-term started to pull back on Friday and thinking there is more work to do as they ran right into resistance.

FINANCIALS did bounce during the week’s rally but no change in the stance.

We have warned you to the numerous amount of “no sales” BIOTECHS that have been taken public recently. Investors have shown no regard to value as they
rammed these names ever higher. It feels like air is finally being let out so careful time. Remember, if we ever enter a bear market again, precedent
shows these companies could have a rough time of it as bear markets knock down all the curtains.

Rangebound to …

Markets have been rangebound for a decent amount of time. They remain rangebound but yesterday’s action took indices above the mid-point of that range with some areas breaking out. Let’s hope this is a precursor.

The ECB gets the credit as they are now going with another $1 trillion-plus of printing money and buying bonds…even though many of the bonds yield zippo and even less. Go figure.

A couple areas of note:

Many AIRLINES move out of range…some with volume off of strong earnings off of lower energy prices.

Leisure-type stocks also…we are talking HOTELS, CRUISE LINES and the like.

Big weekend report coming. You can watch me on Fox News Channel’s BULLS AND BEARS at 10 am et on Saturday morning.

And they say Republicons are fighting!

SOURCE: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2920816/White-House-aide-says-Obama-steamroll-Democrats-Congress-split-White-House-Cuba-Iran-energy-trade-just-DAY-combative-State-Union.html

What did he say?

Raise taxes on producers. Give to government. Government takes their tribute. Government doles out a wee bit. Yup…that’s going to help.  I can be long-winded and sarcastic but that puts it in a nutshell. And oh yeah…we must fight global warming. I mean climate change. THE GOOD NEWS! The Republicons are now in power so hopefully none of this nonsense gets done. Frankly, I wish they would all go away for an extended sabbatical.

Markets are awaiting the ECB’s move on Thursday in where they will print a crapload of more money in order to buy bonds that are already yielding zero or even less. Yup…that’s going to help also.

Markets are rangebound in where patience is important. The good news about sitting markets is that the next good move is more easily identifiable.  We are paying attention to biotech and semi leaders as well as a few restaurants as they trace out ranges to potentially buy off of. If they don’t move out, there will be not much to do.

Except for oil stocks starting to outperform the commodity, not much more to add. Just sitting and watching.

 

Hey…the Knicks won 2 in a row leaving them at a fabulous 7-36.