MARKETS AND NO YIELD

/in , , , /by
—-The DOW and S&P are on the verge of breaking out of a big range starting way back in early 2018. The stronger NASDAQ/NDX are on the verge of breaking out of range that started last August. If this occurs, we would think it would be somewhat akin to the breakouts in the first week of 2013 and the breakout the week of the November 2016 election. This would not include many areas as small caps, mid caps, transports, foreign markets, financials are not even close. This would be a big difference from those other breakouts.We would also expect the dollar to swoon and gold to get going out of range. As always, with markets, we will adjust if new clues show up but today looks to be an important day and will be imperative the market does not experience a big reversal.—–
—-And to repeat from last night’s report, this is all occurring because:—-
Negative Bond Yields through…
30 yrs: Switzerland
15 yrs: Germany, Netherlands
10 yrs: Japan, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Sweden
9 yrs: France, Belgium
8 yrs: Slovakia
7 yrs: Ireland, Slovenia
6 yrs: Spain
5 yrs: Portugal
3 yrs: Malta, Bulgaria
1 yr: Italy
——In Switzerland, you are paying the government to loan THEM money…and for 30 years. Who in their right mind would do that? In recent weeks, we have seen India and Australia lower rates. We have seen China add over a trillion to their system, Just this week, the ECB announced the potential for more rate cuts and more printed money even though their rates were already negative and they have already printed trillions.—–
—-And then there is us. Let’s see…—-
—-U.S. Large cap indices are back near all time highs.
Unemployment is in the 3s.
GDP was 3.2% last quarter.
Oil prices are dropping helping the consumer and business big time.
The 10 year is yielding 2% making mortgages much cheaper for the average American’s largest purchase.
80% of IPOs that have been coming out have losses, some with huge losses.
Froth is showing up in the market. Think fake plant-based meat.—-
—-With all that, one would expect a central bank would be tightening. At least that is what would have happened back in the good old responsible days. But instead, from Jay Powell:—-
—-“PARTICIPANTS SEE A STRONGER CASE FOR RATE CUTS!”
“PARTICIPANTS SEE A BETTER CASE FOR ACCOMMODATION”—-
—-Needless to say, we remain in unprecedented…and we mean unprecedented easy money times…as the debt/deficit/leverage can these central banks have enabled gets kicked even farther down the road.—–

EASING MONEY AT OR NEAR THE HIGHS

/1 Comment/in , , , /by
——We have studied markets going back to day one. Our software allows us to backdate. We have studied central banks. We have studied market reactions to central banks. For years, we have told you the past 10 years saw central banks both here and around the globe time their easy money moves to markets. We have seen the Bank of Japan have no problem with owning over 4% of their market and over 50% of their ETFs. We can go on and on. But 10 years into this experiment with easy money, it looks like we may be just getting started. We do not know what is at work here but take a gander at this:——

Negative Bond Yields through…
30 yrs: Switzerland
15 yrs: Germany, Netherlands
10 yrs: Japan, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Sweden
9 yrs: France, Belgium
8 yrs: Slovakia
7 yrs: Ireland, Slovenia
6 yrs: Spain
5 yrs: Portugal
3 yrs: Malta, Bulgaria
1 yr: Italy
——In Switzerland, you are paying the government to loan THEM money…and for 30 years. Who in their right mind would do that? In recent weeks, we have seen India and Australia lower rates. We have seen China add over a trillion to their system, Just this week, the ECB announced the potential for more rate cuts and more printed money even though their rates were already negative and they have already printed trillions.—–
—-And then there is us. Let’s see…—-
U.S. Large cap indices are back near all time highs.
Unemployment is in the 3s.
GDP was 3.2% last quarter.
Oil prices are dropping helping the consumer and business big time.
The 10 year is yielding 2% making mortgages much cheaper for the average American’s largest purchase.
80% of IPOs that have been coming out have losses, some with huge losses.
Froth is showing up in the market. Think fake plant-based meat.
—–With all that, one would expect a central bank would be tightening. At least that is what would have happened back in the good old responsible days. But instead:—–
PARTICIPANTS SEE A STRONGER CASE FOR RATE CUTS
PARTICIPANTS SEE A BETTER CASE FOR ACCOMMODATION
—–Yup…it looks like Jay Powell earned back his invitation to the Christmas party at Mar-A-Lago.—-
—–We wish we could tell you what is in all these maniac’s minds that run central banks around the globe. We can’t. We are just letting you know the getting stronger big-cap market here combined with a new round of easy money could lead to some climactic action to the upside. No…we do not predict anything. We always let the market action be our guide. But we know easy money and we know the outcome of easy money. If price breaks out of range to the upside in the majors, it could get interesting. But warning….none of this is normal…and guess what happens to late climactic moves? Gonna be an interesting ride from here.—-
—–And one last note: We heard Gundlach tell Neil Cavuto today that he expected a recession in the next year. Two things: 1) If that is to occur, markets will know it a few months in advance and go into bearish mode. 2) If that is to occur, we guarantee you this fed will take rates back to 0% and start another round of maniacal money printing. Yippee!—–

THE OPEN

/in , , , /by

Amazing what the market reacts to. The president tweets something about China which was old news and the China trade turns up. The down and out SEMIS ramp hard. On top of that, the ECB going to lower rates even though rates are negative. Actually, we are not surprised.

 

BIG CAP indices edged above range…and now we await our fed. Yippee. More easy money.

 

Will have a lot more after our fed gets out of the way. We have no clue what they do but we said before anyone else they would be cutting again soon.

IF AT 100TH YOU DON’T SUCCEED

/2 Comments/in , , , /by
–If at 100th you don’t succeed, try try again. That has been the motto of central banks for over a decade and continues to be the motto. This morning:–
–In spite of the ECB having negative rates, in spite of the trillions of printed money, in spite of the 10 year German Bund amazingly yielding negative, Mario (I can do one better than Bernanke) Draghi announced this morning that they can actually print even more money and get this, lower rates to even more negative. Yes…a negative 0.4 is not easy enough. Overnight futures reversed on this news. Juices are flowing as a money losing, fake meat company is up another 10% this morning and more money losing IPOs are foisted upon an unwary public. —
–The amazing part about all this is that the easy money has not worked. Europe has continued to under-perform with many areas contracting. Most don’t or don’t want to understand that the easy money is what has created the problem…and continues to this day. The easy money has enabled massive debt and deficits. Guess what the debt and deficits cause? Correctomundo…a headwind to the economic growth they are looking for. Guess what the easy money does? It screws the savers while trying to bubble up asset prices which in turn causes economic inequality…you know, the thing they rail against.–
–And next up is our easy money dolts as every time markets take a hit, they take a turn. The latest is our fed going from “patience” to “uh, uh, uh, hmm, we can now look to lower rates!” Don’t worry about the more than $1 trillion yearly deficits. Don’t worry about the $22 trillion and counting of debt. Don’t worry about this year, the first $550 billion of our precious tax dollars are going to interest. That’s right. Not to the poor, the downtrodden, the kids, the elderly, the roads, the bridges…but to interest…all because of what the fed has enabled and the politicians have created. Nancy Pelosi keeps whining about the Constitution and how it must be upheld. Funny…not sure we read anything in the Constitution about politicians like Pelosi putting us into $22 trillion of debt. President Trump said that he would cut debt and deficits by half. Funny…the president immediately, with Paul Ryan (now gone) and Mitch McConnell raised federal spending $250 billion/year ad infinitum. Love them conservative RepubliCONS!–
–But don’t worry. Rates are coming down both here and around the globe. Negative rates already pervade. More printing will continue. The president is actually jealous this morning as he is tweeting that it is unfair the ECB keeps easing while we have not. Don’t worry Mr. President. We are next. As long as markets cooperate, everything is fine.–
–Sound pessimistic? We have never been more optimistic…about the people. The great, hard working people of this country continue to work hard, sweat, toil, risk capital and succeed. Unfortunately, we have never been more pessimistic about them as no one running this country on the left and no one on the right…gives a crap about what they have created. And when all hell breaks loose, the culprits will be either lobbying, working on Wall Street or just plain history.–

PRE MARKET

/in , , , /by

Futures up a wee bit…but today doesn’t matter. Tomorrow doesn’t matters. What matters is one person and his minions using whatever data they see to continue easy money policies that go easier every time markets get in trouble. It nauseates us that we continue to be in central bank-induced markets…but it is the way it is. Wall street doesn’t complain. The politicians do not complain as long as it is easier money. The president had fits over a whopping 2.5% fed funds rate.

So we wait.  Let us just say they had better either lower rates or state they are looking to lower rates as we think a good chance markets are expecting it now.

The S&P sitting in handle above the 50 day. The NASDAQ is below.
The SOX trades like crap. You know how much we believe in the SOX. Fundamentals have not been good.
FINANCIALS comatose but can wake up quickly depending on the fed.
GOLD and GOLD stocks strong but need pullbacks. If the fed lowers, the dollar comes down and gold moves higher.
OILS…dead…been going on for quite a while..
Small caps continue to under-perform.
Transports not good but a few airlines coming up right side. Big insider buying in AAL by several people just under $30.
CHINESE ADRs gross.
INTEREST RATE SENSITIVE UTILITIES, REITS and now HOUSING doing well. A few HOUSING names look ready but very low beta.

WHY THE PRESIDENT IS IN ORLANDO ON TUESDAY

/in , , , /by

No…it is not because the Amway Center is about 1,000 feet from our offices. It is because Florida and certain parts of Florida, namely the areas around central Florida, that may matter most. Here are some very important facts.

Florida is a whopping 29 electoral votes…the largest swing state. Florida has gone for the winner in the last 6 elections, 3 times for a Democrat and 3 times for a Republican. While the average margin of victory over those 6 elections was 2.6%, both President Obama and President Trump won by about 1%. Specifically, President Trump won by only 112,911 votes out of a total of 9,122,861 votes. A switch of just 56,500 votes would have changed the playing field. With a Michigan (16 electoral votes) that the President won by less than 11,000 votes out of more than 4.5 million votes…with a Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) won by less than 23,000 votes out of almost 2.8 million votes…with a Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) won by a little over 44,000 votes out of about 5.9 million votes, Florida is huge.

Hillary Clinton won only 9 counties but she won the biggies.

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

Clinton 623,006 votes

Trump 333,666 votes

BROWARD COUNTY

Clinton 546,956 votes

Trump 258,521 votes

PALM BEACH COUNTY

Clinton 371,411 votes

Trump 270,762 votes

So why Orlando? First off, expect the President to do a lot of visiting the big 3 as any movement his way would be a huge help.  Orlando is simply the central part of the I-4 corridor. Yes…the nightmare we call I-4 as the “Ultimate I-4” construction continues. When we say nightmare, we mean nightmare. Central meaning it is easy to get to Orlando from Trump-friendly counties like Lake, Polk, Seminole, Volusia and Sumter County (the very friendly The Villages is there). Farther away, even Marion county. Nothing like getting your strong base fired up. But we think there is more to it than just that. It is  not a reach to believe the President is targeting Democratic strongholds of Orange County as well as Osceola county. When we played in tennis tournaments, we used to attack the opponent’s strongest areas. If their strongest ground stroke was the forehand, we knew if we broke down their forehand, the party was over. If we could weaken their strengths, it is much easier to win. We think the President knows that if he can win over large swaths of “enemy territory,” he is a lock to win the state. He is taking  advantage of an economy that is very strong here. It is not just tourism which is monstrously strong. Employment figures are strong with unemployment now under 3%. Total GDP is at its highest ever. Orlando Intl Airport is doing record numbers. With higher taxes being proposed by every Democratic candidate, President Trump can try to sell based on what Candidate Andrew Gillum was going to do if he won the governorship, raise sales taxes. Sales taxes would not be popular here and we can tell you, if the President lost, it would be easier to vote in a Democratic governor next go round. On a side note, it will not just be a speech, the President’s campaign is holding a carnival outside the Amway Center with rides, games, bands and all the trappings. The man does know how to give a good party. As far as voting:

ORANGE COUNTY

Clinton 329,579 votes

Trump 195,091 votes

OSCEOLA COUNTY

Clinton 85,287 votes

Trump 50,252 votes

But there are now over 215,000 registered Republicans in Orange County. In other famous words…GET OUT THE VOTE. On top of that Governor Ron DeSantis got 37% of the vote in Orange County, up from Trump’s 35% in 2016. Momentum! So…yes, method to the madness. This is not the President’s first visit as he has already held multiple rallies in Orlando itself as well as Ocala, Kissimmee, Lakeland, Sanford and Melbourne since his presidency.

Of course, there is still 505 days to the election. The economy can change. Markets can change. After all, no one knows what day the debt and deficits finally shoot the middle finger back at those that created the monster. It is going to be one heck of a ride.