After a good day yesterday, futures are down this morning on a few things.
London FTSE and rest of Europe down. The PM of the UK calling for early elections.
Goldman (GS) down $6 on earnings miss…about 40 Dow points.
Yesterday’s stronger day enables us to define support levels:
Russell 2000 1335-1340…S&P 2322-2328…Dow 20,412…NYSE 11,324…XLF $23ish…KRE $51.17…NASDAQ 5769-5800…NDX 5353 and then 5316
These levels are important in that market has had some distribution already and these levels have been holding for about 8 weeks. A break below is trouble. Yesterday, as soon as the financials caught a better bid, market caught a better bid. Goldman will not help the cause this morning. A lot more earnings to come out.
Back in the good old U.S. of A. Jet lag city but had a great trip. Will have a full report on market tonight but tomorrow, my retro-diary of my real-time thoughts on my trip to Auschwitz. As I walked, I posted my thoughts to myself and will put them up in the next day. I must tell you, I now know why everyone told me to be prepared and that it would change me.
That said, we head into the meat of earnings this week. Netflix after the close and then a ton in the next few weeks. Be ready.
Ugly action last week. This morning, futures up decently but beware of strong opens and weak closes. In bull phases, markets open uneventfully and rally throughout the day. During bear phases, you get good opens, only to sell it all down during the day.
Just leave no doubt, market has lost steam with my oft-said “watch the financials and the semis” breaking below support. WITHOUT THEM, MARKET WILL NOT GO HIGHER.
Tuesday earnings before the open: BAC,SCHW,CMA,GS,HOG,JNJ,NTRS,UNH.
Tuesday earnings after the close: IBM,ISRG,LRCX,VMW.
Wednesday before the open: ABT,ASML,KO,MS,AMTD,USB
Wednesday after the close: AXP,CSX,LVS,QCOM,NOW,SKX,URI
Thursday before the open: ALK,AN,BBT,BLK,BX,BK,CHKP,DHR,DISH,DHI,GM,GNTX,KEY,LAZ,NSC,NUE,PEP,PM,PPG,SHW,SWK,TRV,VZ
Thursday after the close: AMD,MXIM,UAL,V
Friday before the open: AAL,GE,HON,SLB,STI
Earnings dates subject to change.
KEEP IN MIND…the news is fluid on North Korea, Syria, Russia and all them hot spots. Markets may get pushed around a bit depending on the news but many areas of the markets were topping weeks in advance of all these potential events.
Well, you know where we have stood and you know where we stand. If we had to draw up a day to look real crappy, it would have been today. Two things stand out.
They opened the financials up on the earnings reports…AND SOLD THEM DOWN. That is the definition of distribution…with financials finishing a smidge below support.
AND the major indices now REALLY have the look of rolling over.
Will have a complete report over the weekend. Have a great holiday weekend.
Just finished the Schindler factory tour. WOW! Later the Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camps. Those that know me know that if I have 5 drinks each year, it is a big year. May double that after the visit.
Will say more over the weekend but first…MESSAGE TO TRUMP! DO NOT TALK ABOUT THE MARKETS. DO NOT TALK DOWN THE DOLLAR. DO NOT MENTION INTEREST RATES. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!
Futures down again…please remember what we have told you. Pay attention to the support levels on the major indices as well as the financials. Do not ignore.
Previous leader AAOI up $10 as they raised numbers again. But now trading very wide and loose. Will stay on radar but be careful.
We will be live on radio tonight at midnight from Krakow Yes…midnight!
Have a great 3 day weekend.
Greetings from Krakow, Poland where soon we will be heading to the Auschwitz and Birkenau concentration camps. You hear that Sean Spicer? Dude! Just go to google.com and you will know what went on there.
Markets continue the topping process while major indices are down just a few percent from the highs. We have been highlighting for you on an almost daily basis all the internal deterioration that has been going on…for weeks.
Retail has been in a bear market for a long while. Transports topped out weeks ago. Commodities topped out weeks ago and now look to be taking another stair step to the downside. Energy topped out in early December. We can go on and on but now:
The all-important financials topped out a little over a month ago, broke the first line of support and now is on the verge of breaking the second line of support. Needless to say, you know how important this is as they led the market up since the election. Watch the $23 for the XLF.
And now the other all-important area, the Semis, have now broke below first line of support and are under severe pressure. This group has come a long way, thus the one-sided trade is in effect. This means everyone is on the same bus and when things turn, everyone gets off the bus at the same time.
We know earnings start up with a few important financials. We are not so sure it matters as the big cheese crowd is on the sell side here.Remember, we have not had a decent correction since the election. Remember, we have just seen some serious froth in the utterly stupid valuation of Snapchat and investors pushing Tesla to a higher market cap than GM and Ford.
So…now we watch the vital support areas of the popular averages. The DOW at 20,412…S&P at 2322 and the NASDAQ at 5769. If the market continues on the defensive, it will go defensive…and we are already starting to see it as money flows into utilities and big, liquid boring names like JNJ, PG and the like.
As always, if anything changes, we will let you know but so far, a sea of yuck.
And lastly, where the hell are the tax cuts and tax reform, the regulatory reform, immigration reform…? Easy to promise…tough to get done!