PRE MARKET

Earnings season getting started.

Both C and JPM reported. As we write this, C is DOWN 13 cents.  What a move! JPM is DOWN 13 cents.

On another note, DPZ down a big $13 with JNPR down about 5%.

Tomorrow, we get BAC,PNC, WFC, JBHT and next week, we get a ton.

Futures down a wee bit but as you know, we are never going to have a down day ever again. (sarcasm)

Watching some big names here…AMZN if it can get back through $1,000…GOOGL as it edges into new highs off of 19 weeks base…FB if it moves through $175. All report earnings within the next 2-3 weeks.

So much tragedy lately. Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, Las Vegas and now Northern California. Hoping these stories stay in the news because help is still needed.

PRE MARKET

Futures down a wee bit but as we enter earnings season:

Still seeing no distribution. In fact, any weakness during the day, gets bought up. Recent closes have been on the strong end.

Not a hint of trouble in semis and financials. Financials recently caught up as long rates backed up.

World markets remain strong.

The worst thing one can say is the talk is now over-the-top bullish as we are now reading predictions of 35% gains next year and stuff like that. One doesn’t see that at bottoms.

Not a lot of big movers this morning. MU announces secondary…hit a bit…DAL up a wee bit on numbers. AIRLINES have been acting better…coming up right side of bases.

THE CLOSE

Strong open…weaker day…stronger close.

SEMIS again…no giving back. Financials weak early but green late. A/D fine. New highs fine. Extended yes. Stretched yes. Overbought yes. BUT…doesn’t matter until it matters.

Don’t really need to add much more. Earnings in droves starting this week. Pay attention.

PRE MARKET

Back in the states. Tired, jet lagged but glad to be home. Biggest problem I have is my Giants. Geez!

Futures up a bit with earnings coming out in droves starting later this week. The most important part of the equation near term is that the “glamour” types started getting a bid again last week into earnings. Nothing bad about that but again, know when earnings come out as it is a roulette game during that time.

On top of that, semis and financials remain in gear. Need not go further than that as they are the straws that stir the drink.

After I get some sleep, will report on my observations on the nonsense that continues in this great country of ours…from both sides.

And lastly….sentiment is off the charts. I will be saying that a lot as long as it doesn’t change. Doesn’t mean anything as sentiment is a secondary indicator. Just something to keep in the file manager as complacency is way up.

WEEKEND NOTES

Greetings from Glasgow airport as we are just about on our way back from Ireland and Scotland. Had a fabulous time. More on that from our travel blog post in a day or so.

Just to get them out of the way, a few negative area notes:

OILS may have topped near term as oil prices may have topped near term.

Same for many commodity names with a few still strong.

Consumer staples not so good. Food, beverage, tobacco, household products.

Utilities still weak as rates have backed up. But thinking short term, the opposite may start to happen.

Drug stores and distributors yonked as rumors of Amazon getting involved. Is Amazon jumping the shark?

Media stocks…yuck.

Lots of retail remains horrid. COST latest to cough one up.

BUT:

In spite of very overbought conditions, have you noticed how recently, market opens flat or weak and rallies into the close? Always a good sign. Most major indices look fine and act fine. Even trhe once lagging small caps and Transports are now in gear. On top of that:

Financials strong with favorite name C best of with others moving to new highs like BAC, JPM and a few others. As we have been saying forever, we have never seen a bear when financials are in gear. Speaking of leading groups:

The Semis are still working. Even the comatose Intel (INTC) has moved into new highs. And to repeat, when both the semis and financials are in gear, there is no chance of any overall trouble so must continue to be watched.

Industrial types (XLI) still working. For whatever reason, economically sensitive stuff on the move. This in spite of the many calls that the economy sucks.

The FANG glamour names are coming on. They have been weak. Most are just back in bases like AMZN, GOOGL and others. But notice NFLX breaks out on strong volume as they are raising prices.

Housing continues to do better with a few names in new high ground. Good reaction to earnings recently.

Sentiment (secondary indicator) now off the charts too bullish. Just keep in mind the fact things have become so overbought tells you how strong the past weeks have been. But a word of caution: now starting to see some assinine, assiten, asseleven predictions and articles like :why the market will go up 35% next year!” Really, only 35%? How about “we may just never have a bear market again!”  Or my favorite: “the fed insures no chance of a big correction!” Maybe they are all correct. We certainly agree this has been a worldwide central bank-induced market. Just find it funny we didn’t see these headlines a few thousand points ago.

The end of this coming week starts earning’s season. It starts with a few big financials. Remember, it is not the news, it is how things react to the news. With things extended and overbought here, will be interested in seeing how things pan out.

THE CLOSE

Greetings from Aberdeen, Scotland!

Markets overbought, extended and still no pullback. Need we say more. Seeing some rotating pullbacks but that’s it.

Did want to mention HOUSING now on the move…Fed will not raise rates so soon and rates around globe still a joke.

Keeping this short because on the move today. Hope all is well.