WEEKEND REPORT-TEFLON MARKET!

There are lots of things we can complain about. For starters:

A ton of blow-ups during earnings season.  COHR, ULTI, AAOI, MELI, EFII, ESL, PI, VECO and a bunch others.

TRANSPORTS act porrly and under-perform.

NEW HIGHS vs NEW LOWS are pitiful. In fact, there were more new lows than highs on the Nasdaq a couple days this week.

Over the past couple of weeks, the Dow is up almost 600 points while the S&P is flat, the NASDAQ, NDX, RUSSELL, TRANSPORTS are down.

Semis continue to have some trouble in here with many names trading below support.

Bearishness, except for the permabears, is non-existent.

BUT… the DOW, S&P, NASDAQ, NDX trade above the 50 day average.

A few big FINANCIALS are on the cusp of breaking out to the upside.

While the TRANSPORTS are weak, they again bounced off the all-important 200 day average just like they did in May. If nothing changes, when market do turn down, we suspect this area will lead down.

WORLD MARKETS are again at new highs. (Negative rates and the continued printing of trillions help!)

There are still plenty of areas acting well. But the most important part of the equations is this: UNTIL THE MAJOR INDICES BREAK SUPPORT/50 DAY AVERAGE, IT IS FOLLY TO GET TOO BEARISH. Just know it remains a very split tape where bull nad bear sit side by side. We have seen these types of markets in the past. They usually don’t last long. Something eventually gives.

We are now deep into earnings season. There is a bunch more but most of the important names are out…and so far so good. We are now hearing that August is usually a bad month. We will let August decide for itself.

 

NICE IPO BLUE APRON!

A horror show for investors.

SOURCE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/blue-apron-plans-to-cut-24-of-staff-barely-a-month-since-ipo

PRE MARKET EARNINGS ROULETTE

Just a bunch of very big gaps as we move through earnings season:

AAOI leader down over 25%…leader no more…MELI down almost $30…EFII down more than 30%…PI down over 20%…

GRUB, ATVI, OSTK, CARB, SMCI, LITE, BGS, VIAB, APPN, FLR, ABTL, SYNA, ACIA lesser gaps to the downside.

Gaps to the upside…leader ANET up over $20 back to highs…WTW (Thank you Oprah), YELP, GPRO (still losing money), MDRX, WU, MTZ gapping up.

As far as the AAPL gap…so far, nothing but distribution from the gap…but thinking not a big deal. To be watched…may just need some time.

Fake jobs number is out. If you have a job, good. If you don’t, bad.

Futures up a wee bit. DOW divergence versus almost everything else over the past almost 2 weeks continues. Since last Monday’s close, DOW up over 500 points…S&P up 3 points…NASDAQ down 70 points. Russell down…Transports down. Usually we would say not a good sign but so far, except for a lot of individual blow-ups, major indices refuse to buckle.

And of course, the world is still flush with 0% rates, negative rates and to our amateur count, still printing a few $trillion each year….still! But there are no bubbles. All is well…because markets say so.

PRE MARKET

Apple was the whole Dow yesterday. The rest of the market continues to underperform the Dow, which is up 500 points since last Monday…the S&P is flat, the Transports and NASDAQ down…the Russell down. Not sure if it means anything or just rotation…but leave no doubt, past couple of weeks has divergences.

Gaps today: REGN, STMP, TSLA, TTWO, WYN, SEDG to the upside…

CAKE, TEVA, ABC, CXO, LB, BDX,  DDD, CENX, HOLX to the downside.

There are a bunch of little gaps both up and down.

S&P futures flat…NDX up a wee bit as Tesla loses a ton, is cash flow negative, has deposits decelerating, considering debt offering to raise cash, loses money selling every car,  burns cash at $13 million/day but still up $21 this morning.

THERE’S NO MEDIA BIAS! BAZINGA!

This CNN hack actually blames a certain party on the right for Obamacare’s woes. Yup…it is not the fault of Obama…it is not the fault of the left who voted it in…it is not their fault even though it was imploding way before Trump became prez…it is not there fault even though one of the main architects admitted they lies about it…it is all the GOP’s fault…all Trump’s fault. Yup…there’s no media bias!

SOURCE:  https://www.mediaite.com/tv/chris-cuomo-to-mick-mulvaney-its-trump-and-gop-policies-that-have-destabilized-obamacare/

PRE MARKET-EARNINGS ROULETTE

Tons of jello moving on the plate this morning. In no particular order but of course, we start with Apple.

Apple (AAPL) beat estimates in a quarter before a big roll out. At the open, AAPL will be gapping out of a 12 week sloppy base. This is the 2nd strong gap in 6 months. The one in January worked well. We have been told a second big gap to the upside within a year is a “be careful” sign. We’ll let the market decide.

Because of Apple, NDX futures up over .5%. Interestingly, S&P futures basically flat. DOW futures up but that’s on Apple. Apple suppliers like CRUS, QRVO, SWKS and others are up.

ILMN gaps up to a high…up $19.

Other gaps to the upside:

ALL, GRMN, CRTO, HUM, PZZA.

On the downside…WOW!

COHR down $35 off the highs…ULTI down $29 off the highs. MTSI down $13…leading SEMI off the highs…PXD down $14…

Smaller but decent sized gaps to the downside: BGFV, HLF, FISV, AN, RIO, SSTK, FARO, RMD, MRCY, VMC, RACE, CAH, DLPH.

Enjoy! Earnings roulette continues.