PRE MARKET

QCOM/AAPL settle litigation. QCOM soars yesterday and is gapping up today. This really helped the SOX again yesterday.

NFLX lowers guidance from $1,00 to 55 cents for next quarter. Sales decelerate again. Stock down 7% in after hours yesterday. As we write this, up more than 2%.

INTC getting out of 5g or something like that because of the QCOM deal. INTC up $2.50 this morning.

CSX, KSU, PEP, UAL up on earnings.

BK really bad on earnings.

Futures be strong.

But…healthcare yikes. Go look at XLV. Managed care continued its crash yesterday. Gotta think bounce coming. HOSPITALS hit hard yesterday (HCA,UHS,THC). Even MEDICAL PRODUCTS hit hard yesterday.

Interest rate-sensitive UTILITIES and REITS may be done for now. Look at IYR and XLU. End of world not at hand but recent action reacting to higher rates.

WEED

We repeat our thoughts. Valuations for weed stocks are a joke…ridiculously over-valued. But a bull market is a bull market and for a while, they were bullish. No longer. Once just about all broke the 50 day moving average, that was party for now. But it just worsens and most names dive even further. We continue to say avoid…regardless of what the rest say. Price first…opinion last. If things change, price will tell you.

PRE MARKET

Another gap to the upside today. Yesterday, late day buying stepped in to halt early selling. Nothing wrong with that.

It is earnings season. Lots of jello moving on the plate. BAC not so good this morning. GS not so good yesterday. JPM good on Friday. Expect a lot of that.

NETFLIX upgraded this morning. NETFLIX had a bad reaction to Disney’s news on streaming. What interests us is this upgrade comes this morning even though NETFLIX reports after the close. Really! This analyst knows what they will report and how it will react.? Don’t you love a 50-50 coin flip, guessing game on Wall Street?

LYFT closes near $56…a continued disaster that will not help UBER.

 

TAXES, DEBT, DEFICITS, SOCIALISTS, MARKETS

-We have always told you we write less when markets are doing well. Since Powell’s 180 on January 4th which had us pivoting off the bear side, corrections have been shallow and short-lived. But before we get into that, we wanted to let you know we have a new addition to our list.-
-Yes…Senator Ron Wyden, you have made the list. Since the beginning of 2019, here are proposals on taxes from either the Presidential candidates or politicians:-
-A 90% tax. No…not kidding. You make 10 cents. The government takes 90 cents.
A 70% tax.
Wealth tax.
Carbon tax.
Gas tax.
VAT tax.
Financial transaction tax.
Higher payroll tax uncapped.
Higher corporate tax.
Higher estate tax.
Leave the country tax. Yes…you leave because of all the taxes, you pay first.-
-Which takes us to Ron Wyden of the beautiful state of Oregon. This politician who has been in DC for 38 years wants a tax on your investments that HAVE NOT been sold. We repeat…a tax on your investments that HAVE NOT been sold. We will let you take a few minutes to figure out what a nightmare proposal this is. It took us 3 seconds. We are just mentioning this because since this man has been a politician in DC, our debt has gone from basically zero to $22 trillion. Our taxes have skyrocketed. Their spending has skyrocketed and hits records every year. Their yearly deficits are at all time highs. BUT IT STILL AIN’T ENOUGH. Ron Wyden and all politicians since the early 80s…have been part of the problem and no one cares and no one gives a crap. Of course, we can also add:-
-The Green New Deal…no Miss Ocasio Cortez, we are not obsessed with you. We are obsessed with policy. We are obsessed with a policy that has destroyed everything in its wake. A policy that mimics the policy of that wonderful man Maduro just 2,700 miles south of this great country. We are obsessed with anyone who is an authoritarian socialist dictator that believes the state should control large swaths of the economy.-
-Medicare for all… yes good old Bernie realizing making big bucks is not such a bad thing.  Remember, socialists are only socialists with your money. They are quite the capitalists with their own money. And medicare for all, where all our taxes go way up but we get no premiums, no deductibles and no co-pays. It seems Mr. Bernie did not read Economics 101 or has read about the NHS in the UK. When you don’t have to pay specifically for anything, it gets overused. Big lines, big waits, big shortages for healthcare, for nurses, for doctors, for surgery for clinics for hospitals is a gimmee. Have you seen the lines at 7-11 when they have their free Slurpee days? IF YOU THOUGHT HEALTHCARE WAS EXPENSIVE NOW, JUST WAIT UNTIL IT IS FREE. Just remember, when government tells us it costs $1, just multiply by 3. And when government tells us we will get $1, just divide by 3.-
-We are just making the same point that seems to continue to fall on deaf ears. There is no way we can continue this trajectory with a disaster of epic proportions not happening. In fact, it is a lock. There is $250 trillion of debt. There is unknown amounts of derivatives in the system. You remember that word “derivatives?” There is a record amount of leverage. There is a record amount of complacency. There continues to be over-the-top easy money around the globe. Don’t you know why central banks were scared —-less in the 4th quarter of last year? They know they (who have enabled all of this with their easy money) cannot afford financial dislocations with so much debt. So stop those damn bear markets. Mr. Trump seems to have joined the easy money parade after ripping Obama and Bernanke for their easy money. My…how things change when you are the one in power.-
-And the politicians refuse to stop on both sides of the aisle. It is just that one side is now going after WE THE PEOPLE with a fervor we have never seen. Reagan said it best. “IF IT MOVES, TAX IT. IF IT KEEPS MOVING, REGULATE IT. AND IF IT STOPS MOVING, SUBSIDIZE IT. So Ron Wyden, you have now made the list that seems to be growing by the week. WHAT TAX CAN THEY THINK OF NEXT?-
-The only complaint we have about the market is that when everything seems to be going just swell, everyone is conditioned to never worry that anything can go wrong. It is this kind of sentiment that often leads to trouble…but so far, nothing doing. In fact, markets get stronger by the week as any correction is controlled and rotational. The SEMIS (our most important group) continue to lead and now the FINANCIALS may be coming on. Of course, a few thousand earnings reports are about to come out so hold on to your hats.-
-Our last message is that you need to remember markets are smarter than opinion. To this day, we continue to hear calls of recessions and depressions. With our thoughts on debt and deficits, we are always worried about the longer term but it just aint happening yet. There is no way the rails, the industrials and other economically sensitive areas are strong and at the same time, we are headed for an economic train wreck. We promise you that when the train wreck comes, the market will see it months in advance as it will crumble in spite of the maniacs at the fed lowering rates to 0% and printing money again…and we promise, again they will.-

PRE MARKET

Gap to the upside.

JPM up $3.

DIS up $7…market likes the streaming deal.

CVX buying APA…so OILS really helping the cause this morning.

Will leave it at that. More on the weekend.

 

PRE MARKET

Wait…stop. We didn’t know markets go down.

A little rough patch? Markets are overdue. Doesn’t mean the end of the world. Again, markets do go down.

As of this juncture, nothing but a pullback. Indices a little stretched and extended to the upside. A pullback towards moving averages would actually beneficial.

Earnings in droves starting this Friday with a few financial names.

To tell us if it will be more than a pullback, we make note of how many areas and how many stocks are breaking down. We will be on it if it starts to get hairy.

ECB announced this morning negative rates for the rest of the year. (They will never be able to roll things back!) Have you seen the charts of European banks?

Trump watching every tick. Seems all thoughts go towards keeping markets going. Calling for more QE. You know what we think of this.

Trump putting Stephen Moore and Herman Cain for the fed. No chance Cain even gets to nomination. Better chance for Moore.

Watch this Dwyane Wade video.