All the talk today will be Trump/Putin. In case you did not know, Russia is an economic shrimp compared to us. In fact, Texas has a larger economy than Russia even though Russia has 5x the people. Their GDP is just 8% of the U.S. GDP even though they have about 35-40% of the people the U.S. has. Male life expectancy is 13 years shorter than everywhere else. They are dependent on oil/gas/arms. If I was prez, not sure I would even meet with Putin.
Futures flat for a change.
We will highlight each day the strong reactions to earnings.
JBHT up $5 pre market. BAC hardly moving.
NFLX after the close. NFLX received another downgrade this morning after the downgrade Friday.
CMA, GS, HOG, JNJ, SCHW, UNH
CHRW, CSX, UAL
No reason to get too in-depth on the market here as we now enter earnings season. So far, Friday’s reaction to a few big financials was less than stellar.
The market has been improving. Even the DOW and S&P are playing catch up. But, by our proprietary estimate, about 50% of the market is still not participating. For long lasting moves, that must improve.
Other random thoughts on just about everything:
The U.S. budget deficit hit $607 billion over the past 9 months. Spending on interest is heading higher. By some estimates, about $400 billion of our tax dollars will go to interest in the next year. That is a sin. Remember, all those politicians you see questioning people on the hill…are the guilty party for all this.
In another case of they think we are idiots, this dude Strzok says he was not biased. Funny guy! And if you think that session was a classic case of asinine partisanship and stupidity, just wait to see what happens if the Dems win the house.
Children were separated from illegal parents in 09,10,11,12,13,14,15 and 16 but I do not remember 24/7 coverage of the heartless Obama. I do not remember specials where anchors parked their carcasses down at the border ripping on the head honcho, top dog, big cheese.
Please do not equate the market going up with tariffs being no big deal. They are a big deal. Maybe not at $30 billion but watch what eventually happens if it escalates to the $200 billion…or more.
Trump says the EU is a foe. Say what? We think he has the wrong part of the E. It is the ECB that is the foe as they continue to keep rates negative and continue to print money. We cannot imagine what kind of asset distortions there are out there…but we will find out.
Amazon is up over 90,000% since its IPO in 1997. Barnes and Noble is down 13%.
Inflation over the past 12 months in Venezuela was a meager 43, 378 percent. Do you hear that Bernie? Two years ago, a cup of coffee cost 450 bolivars. It will now cost you one million bolivars.
In case you are worried about inverted yield curves and the market, the last time occurred in 2006. The S&P didn’t peak for another 21 months and was up over 20% during that time.
The DEMS still have no game except to whine, complain and then when in power…taxes, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, rules and just plain old more control of everyday life. They are actually running on higher taxes. Good luck with that.
And the Mets still suck!
Uh…NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100. Uh…NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100. Uh…NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100. We shall leave it at that.
Fast and amazing fact:
Total return since the Amazon IPO in May 1997
Barnes & Noble: -13%
Full report on the weekend.
I hold off from writing at night about markets because markets do not seem to have memory from day to day. This morning, we get the opposite of yesterday. Simple as that. A gap to the upside to negate yesterday’s gap to the downside. Thrilled yet.
Even the moves in commodities are amazing based on overnight moves in currencies. But the bog picture has not change. Over half the market still not working but the half that is working, works well. It is just very narrow.
Yesterday, oil prices mauled…today, they gap back up. Commodities mauled. Today, they gap back up.
But we can continue to list a bunch of areas and a bunch of countries that just aint working.
NASDAQ/NDX/TECH/INTERNET/SOFTWARE continues to lead the way. There is still good action in some RETAIL, RESTAURANTS and a decent amount of growth names.
Earnings start up Friday with a few financials and ramps up next week.
Those that have watched my hits on Fox News and Fox Business or listened to my longer form radio show, know I am vehemently against tariffs. I have stated that the worry was not the tariffs currently in place but what happens when they go up to $100 billion, $200 billion and more? I don’t like tariffs on us and don’t like tariffs on anyone else. But the fact is WE HAVE BEEN UNEQUALLY treated by others forever. Past presidents have had a policy of hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil on trade. They cut byzantine deals that Einstein could not figure out what is in the deals. BUT…that does not change the fact that bigger and bigger tariffs will do nothing more than taunt markets, business and economies, both here and around the globe. It is ultimately a tax on us as it is always, we the people that pay the piper. We pay the piper in higher costs, slower business, fewer jobs and most importantly, uncertainty. For example, soybean farmers cannot currently plan. They cannot plan on crops. They cannot plan on renting or buying equipment. They cannot plan on futures contracts. Multiply this by every business affected and again, business is being taunted.
The administration upped the ante last night, now poised to raise tariffs on China to the tune of $200 billion. The new tariffs would not take place for a couple of months which gives business the chance to yell and scream about how their respective business will be affected. Hearings will be scheduled for late August. China has already reacted with another certain finger shot back at the administration saying they will act in kind. We now start to worry that the next move will be on autos in a big way. Mr. President, that would be one gigantic food chain that gets affected. Careful!
The problem is all evidence in is no one is blinking. Yes, we have heard rumors that Germany wants to talk but they are only rumors. The fact is again, all evidence in is that no one is backing down.
The good news is that for the most part, markets have not been affected. And yes, markets do matter. Futures are down nicely this morning but so far, no big deal. But that’s the short run. In the long run, the longer uncertainty pervades, the tougher it will get for business. Uncertainty for business pervaded the air for 8 years under Obama which led to subpar numbers even though they used the central bank’s 0% rates and the printing of $5 trillion to keep things afloat. We are in hopes these “tactics” bear fruit. We are in hopes this works out to all benefit. As of now, it is starting to escalate and that is bad news.