09/12/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/091218.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Apple

Apple (AAPL) came out with the iPhone 5 today. Preorders are September 14 and we’ll see how many are sold and that’s what the market’s going to look at.

Apple stock today, when all was said and done, was up 3…down 3…up 3…down 3 – it wasn’t even moving. Except someone was lying in the weeds because it did finish up 9 on the day and, to be clear, it was down 3 at 3:30. At 3:40 Apple was up 1.  

Apple went up 6 in the last five minutes…and is up another dollar in the aftermarket.

To be clear and blunt here, my guess (which means absolutely zero) is that they’re going to sell a bunch regardless of whether it’s worth it or not.

I’m reading a bunch of smart people on the web. One guy came out and said, there’s nothing to it. There’s no reason to buy it, except that it looks better here and there and maybe has a longer battery life.

Other people are acting like it’s the 2nd Coming.

So we’ll let the market decide.

Technically, the Apple went back into the range is been in for the past four weeks and that’s the market’s going to look at.

The Market

Again, it sickens and disgusts me that we have to wait for the head of the Fed, Ben Bernanke and his minions to come out with more policy tomorrow…after teasing markets going into Jackson Hole basically telegraphing more printing of money.

This dude BETTER announcement more printing of money tomorrow. Here’s why:

If it doesn’t, there goes the market. This dude has set the market up. And you know me, I had the money printing, interference and manipulation.

But the other side of the equation is that if he screws Wall Street, it may not be a very good day. But I have to figure that because he is a political hack who wants to keep his job which means getting Obama re-elected, he’s going to do everything possible.

Now, here’s the other side of the coin. What if the market sells off on the news? We’ll cross that bridge. All we know is that the S&P 500 has moved out of range. The Nasdaq has moved out of range. Other areas have not, but they’re just right behind.

All we can do, if distribution starts to rear its ugly head, is deal with it if that occurs.

Contest:

We’re having a contest. Name the Dow at the end of the year. We’ll give out a $1000 in cash to each of the top three guessers. You’ll have until next Tuesday night. You just have to email me at GaryK.com what you think the Dow will be at, at the end of the year. I just need your name and the city you’re emailing from. That’s it. If you want to put your phone number, that’s fine.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

09/10/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/091018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

There’s this company called Apple (AAPL). Basically, as the Apple goes, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 have been going. It’s been driving the market. It really has. As you know Apple is coming out with the iPhone 5 in the next week or two. I have no idea how good it’s going to be.

But we do know that Apple got smacked today on volume and it affected the market today. It’s what’s called a bellwether. Bellwethers do change. I remember in the early-1990s – you know what the hottest stock was? Coca Cola (KO).

Then, toward the mid-1990s the bellwethers will American Online (AOL) and the Internet stocks such as Intel (INTL), Microsoft (MSFT), Dell (DELL)…but things change.

I have to tell you, Apple had more influence today than I’ve seen in a while. As the markets were kinda sort okay and then Apple started to sell, then everything went with it, to a certain extent.

It is going to be something to watch. Volume was light today on the drop and that’s good news. But I never, ever want to see breakouts, especially in markets – fail.

I wouldn’t call today a failed breakout, but for sure, it was not a good day. I never want to see the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 under the perform the rest of the areas. So I’m going to be watching very closely the next few days, lead up to Thursday, when the Fed speaks. I don’t know what they’re going to say, what they’re going to do, how much money they’re going to print – I don’t know.

The Few Little Things That Stick Out

First of all, there’s Apple. It’s had a good run. They are reporting earnings in late-October. But they also have the iPhone 5 coming out. I was the asked the question, “What if the iPhone 5 does not sell?”

It would be trouble. Last quarter’s earnings decelerated. Revenues decelerated. But so far every one of their phones, except for 4s which was an in-betweener, has done well. But Apple was down 18 today and that’s what caused the drop in the market.

Mellanox Technologies (MLNX). It’s has been a very strong stock. It gapped up on earnings. It went from 95 after the gap to 120. In the past few days, it’s gone from 120 to 101 and then it hit 95 today. Two things happened.

  1. Intel (INTC) had a warning on Friday. And because Intel does some business with Mellanox, that affect it.
  2. Today the CFO is out

I don’t own the stock right now. But if I did, a break of the 10-week/50-day moving average on heavy volume on a closing basis would be a pretty decent sell signal. But I must tell that what happened on Friday was also a decent sell signal, in that it broke from the top. Today was like a double break from the top.

Recognize that there’s some serious distribution going on.

Intel (INTC). Two weeks ago, I told my radio show listeners that that Intel was acting terribly. Intel started breaking down a couple a Thursday’s ago and I knew that they had a knew mid-quarter update and that warned big-time and they had missed by billions in sales. It was down another buck today to 23.25, breaking support again on big volume. So that has a lot to do with Dell (DELL) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) in that there were less sales of PCs and laptops as well as the infiltration of the tablet business.

If I was to make a blanket statement about Intel, I just wouldn’t be owning this thing. And if Intel continues to go down, it could hurt the Nasdaq and the Semiconductors.  

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

08/31/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/083118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Facebook (FB)

Before the IPO, we said that if they’re bring it out at a $100 billion market cap and $4 billion in revenues with business slowing, there better be a bubble, because if there isn’t a bubble, there’s going to be heck pay because the stock is worth $15 – maybe.

And they brought it out. It opened at the mid-40s and closed at the at IPO price and has never seen the light of day.

It closed at 18.06, down a 1.03…and insiders are selling like crap out of the stock. This just goes to show you – Wall Street had a year to prepare for this. They chose greed over the investing public. They chose to try create a bubble and bury it. And guess ended up happening? They buried themselves.

They’re losing their rear end.

They’re being sued up their rear end.

They deserved everything they got.

Now, in case you don’t know, here’s my continued take.

  1. Even at today today’s close at $18.06, Facebook has a $45 billion market cap with $4 billion in revenues and a slow business. I’m not making this up. We may have seen peak numbers. And if that’s the case – this is single digits.
  2. On top of that, they unlocked the stock too early. And the amazing part is that I don’t think employees can even sell yet. These are the big boys selling.

Lesson: Price counts. Valuation counts. Always remember that.

And once again I have to a repeat, this is Wall Street at its worst. Wall Street at its greediest.

Now, on the other end of the spectrum…

GOLD AND SILVER

Let’s work backwards. About 15 months ago, on my radio show I told you that I broke out a bunch of charts from the 1970s. You see in the 70s, Gold had a major, major bull market. And closer to the end of the 70s, around ’76..’77, Gold had a monumental move up. Gold went through a big bear market in the context of a big gigantic secular bull market. During that time, Gold backed and backed up for 18 months. What did that lead to? The big gigantic 2 to 3 year blow-off topic where Gold went up 4-fold in the last 7 or 8 months and doubled within a few weeks, finishing with a climatic run in January of 1980.

And I simply told you that I predict nothing.

And I tell you again, I predict nothing.

I’m just pointing out that Gold has been mimicking 1970s until the past 3 or 4 weeks.

You see in the 1970s, the bearish phase before the bull move, lasted eighteen months—and dropped a lot. This bearish phase didn’t even drop 20%. And as I told you, on the GLD which is the ETF for Gold, 148 has been holding and holding, and I posed to you and myself the question, is it possible that 148 is going to be it?

And the reason why Gold didn’t go into a bear is because of the massive amounts of printing of money not only here, but in Europe.

So Gold, in the past week, broke above near-term resistance, held about the 50-day moving average and we told you on the radio show that it looks to be buyable, but – a stop below recent support levels.

So Gold gapped up. In the past couple days, Gold pulled make a minor pullback. We had wait for the Fed.

And just yesterday on my show, I told you Gold is doing to do one thing or the other today. It did the one thing. It had a massive move the upside and so did silver on big volume.

We do not know if this going to lead to a monstrous move like we saw in the late-1970s. We just hope.

So here is the take, up to the second.

That was a really good move today. That means now in the past couple of weeks, we’ve had two mammoth volume big move days, while on the pullbacks, volume was light – indicating that the big money crowd is in there buying this stuff up.

Hint..hint..hint…

What it leads to, I don’t know.

What I do know right now is that Gold and Silver have the bid.

And the suspect is higher prices in the near-term.

We’ll keep evaluating as this goes along and I can only hope that this is the start of the a big, big move. And if you have a chance, go look at the GLD and SLV and you’ll see exactly what I am saying.

For me, today is a confirming day of this recent move off the lows that occurred in the past week. And we all get into the whys. We know the whys. 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/30/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/083018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

“C”

Citigroup is settling a lawsuit for $590 million. More than a billion dollars. This is over claims that Citigroup deceived investors by hiding the extent of its dealings in subprime debt. It is a pact with the investors.

Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit says they are settling to put the pain from the financial crisis behind them. Citigroup denied the allegation saying that the settlement is solely to eliminate the uncertainty, burden and expense of further protracted litigation and that existing legal reserves will cover the cost of the settlement.

$590 million.

Why am I bringing this up? Because no one is going to jail. No one is even indicted. Nobody is even going to be tried. Now why do I also bring this up? Because little old me back in 2007 read to you on my radio show that Citigroup was taking bad loans off their books before earnings and putting them back on the books after earnings. I could have been sued for that. You know why I wasn’t sued? Because I was right!

So somebody at Citigroup took bad loans off their books before earnings and put them back on after earnings to hide massive losses. That is the definition of felony. Fraud. Massive, over the top manipulation and not one person is being investigated, indicted, found guilty…nothing.

Instead – Citigroup denies the allegation and pays the $590 million because they’re just nice people.

My question: Why are the prosecutors settling? Why are they letting felonies and felons off the hook? How many times are we going to see crimes, front and center in plain sight!

Lloyd Blanfein, the Goldman Sachs CEO perjured himself in front of congress. And nothing…no investigation. He’s off. Nothing.

And do they wonder why everybody is running to the hills from the markets? How do we trust, when the head honcho top dog big cheeses that got away with felonies – nothing happens to them? They’re still making $20…30…50 million a year. They’re still riding in limousines and living in big houses and committing felonies.

But they put Martha Stewart in jail. And by the way she was guilty and she should have gone to jail.

But I’m using that as an example of what’s going on. And when you know that people from the Obama administration are now working at Citigroup and Goldman Sachs…and people from Citigroup are now working in the Obama administration – and the same thing happened in the Bush administration – therein lies the problem.

Man, this whole thing irritates me. It sickens me.

They’ll put the little guy away…the guy who can’t fight and doesn’t have the millions of dollars to fight. But they refuse to go after some of these bigwigs. And when the market is trading a thousand shares a day and all these companies are out of business, they wonder why everybody ran away from the markets.

I don’t know what to tell each and every one of you – like I do – a level playing field. Reward success and penalize crime. Reward integrity. Penalize felony.

Now here’s the good news and the epilogue to this. Citigroup is now doing the right thing. They’ve gotten back down to basics and hopefully they don’t ever repeat this again. And frankly, there’s nothing we can do about this. We’re nobodys. We’re a bunch of muppets. 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/29/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/082918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

One Man

What’s happened in the past 2 or 3 days? Nothing. The market’s in wait and see mode.

And it’s sickening, as a market person, to have to deal with the things we’re having to deal with. I have to tell you, when it comes to Fed, nobody ever use to talk. Alan Greenspan never used to say a thing. And every month they used to have their meeting and typically they wouldn’t do anything. The only time they would do something is if the economy went into some sort of recession.

If the economy was really slowing down, they’d lower interest rates by a quarter of point…and maybe throw in another quarter the next month…and then the next month. And then as the economy got better, they’d start raising rates to hold off inflation and that was it.

But now, for some reason the tape is has come off the months of all the Fed Heads and on top of that, we have this.

You know what I think the final outcome of all of this is. I don’t know when or where because there’s nothing they’ve ever done that hasn’t created big bubbles because all they do use more debt and leverage and fake money (printed money out of thin air).

And so what we’re waiting for is for Ben Bernanke to do a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And the expectation is that he is going to announce more printing of dollars that he doesn’t having in order to buy bonds to lower interest rates in order to help the economy, even though the 10-year is already down 1.65 and the 30-year is at 2.76.

And as I have told you, he doesn’t care about the economy at this point in time because he can’t do anything about. His goal is just to get the market up because he thinks if the market goes up, the wealth effect will cause people to feel more rich and they’ll spend more.

But there’s a problem with all of this.

#1, he’s screwing the savers by keeping the rates at zero.

And #2, we don’t know what he’s playing with. No one can even fathom this over the top, monolithic, never before seen in history by the umpteenth power, easy money policy of zero percent rates, the outright printing of money, and manipulating and inferring with biggest market in the world – our bond market.

So we’ll see. What’s happening this week as volume is ridiculously low is:

  1. We’re heading toward Labor Day. It’s the end of the summer. It usually quiets down.
  2. Who the heck wants to commit a dime because if he Bernanke announces a couple trillion bucks, maybe the market rallies. Of maybe the market just changes and shoots a certain finger up at Ben Bernanke and goes down on that news. Or if he does nothing – who knows?

But here’s the problem. Out of the past six days, we’ve had several comments out of Fed Heads. And you what? They all contradicted each other.

Seriously.

  • We’ve had one say, “We’ll nothing’s going to happen just because we have to wait and see more evidence come in.”
  • Another one said, “We haven’t talked about it yet, so we have to see what happens.”
  • Another one said, “Oh yeah, we need to print more money.” (Of course, they don’t use the term “print more money” because those words make them look bad)
  • And Bernanke intimated – didn’t say – but intimated that “We’ll we’re looking at printing more money.

And that’s what everybody’s waiting for.

This is what we have to wait for.

One man.

  • A man who has never ever run a business, had a payroll, was fired, had to fire, or anything that has to do with business. Never been in the markets. Been an academic and a government hack since day one.
  • Been wrong 90% of the time.
  • Missed the whole housing crisis and only reacted after prices were already in depression.
  • Said sub-prime lending was okay – with him and Alan Greenspan.
  • And while things were in a debacle, he was saying things were contained and that the housing market would not affect the economy – until it did.
  • And what was his answer to the problems that we’re caused by too much easing and leverage and debt? MORE EASING AND LEVERAGE AND DEBT.

…because that’s all these people know. Create more money.

So we’ll see. As I have said before, I hope I’m wrong. But I have to tell you something. You see that Internet Bubble and that Housing Bubble?

What we’re seeing in the bond market is going to overshadow those bubbles, like we haven’t seen. That usually the cause and effect of what they’re doing. Of course, everything’s okay right now. Why?

Because as long as the market’s cooperating…we’re good.

But if the market blows up – we’re not good. 

So keep your fingers crossed. We are 12 years into the secular bear market and valuations have come down over those 12 years. And there is a thought process in my mind where if we can get passed these deficits and have some real serious people Washington do something about these their stupidity, that there’s another secular bull market around the corner.

These secular bear markets usually last about 13 to 16 years and we’re entering year 13 in the year 2013.

So we’re watching closely for that.

Why? Because everybody’s so depressed and they’re thinking a depression is coming. Everybody thinks we’re in a recession.

Harry Dent thinks we’re doing to 5,000 on the Dow and he’s been wrong 90% of the time also. Bill Gross, a bond guy says don’t be in equities ever.

That’s good. More and more people are selling mutual and getting the heck out of the market. That’s what happened in the late 1970s and then in 1982 we started an 18 year bull market like we’ve never seen.

So I’m counting and that we’re going to watch closely.  

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/23/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/082318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I’m not making this up.

Yesterday I was upset because based on Fed statements, supposedly everybody was in agreement that the Fed was going to print money again to hopefully lower interest rates in order to better the economy. The other thing that it has done is lift the markets. That’s all its done. Now you can say that’s good. But I worry about the longer term of the markets. How are they could roll all of this money back?

We woke up today and you have another Fed head and rolls back yesterday. A guy named Bullard says the opposite – that the minutes were stale and the economy has gotten better and we’re not sure we need to do anything.

So in just two days, we had people that are creating trillions of dollars out of thin air saying the opposite things and we’re supposed invest our dollars?

Bullard said the Fed has seen more encouraging data since the Fed meeting. He said the Fed is being intentionally vague on timing on possible stimulus. He said that if 2% growth resumes wit lower unemployment, likely the Fed will stay on hold. Not clear of the action is needed right now. The latest FOMC minutes are a bit stale.  And he’s the late-2013 camp for raising rates.

Now, what do you think the market’s going to do when you have these people that control the levers, even though, frankly, I wouldn’t let them drive my car or run my kids lemonade stand. But what do you think happens with all this uncertainty?

Oh yeah. The market dumps today. There was no big reason except – it’s called vertigo. Market vertigo.

And we get to deal with it.

Backing away from that…just a crummy day today.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ)

We saw Dell (DELL) get absolutely imploded. And today, Hewlett Packard did the same on their woeful numbers. Again, as investors, it is vital that we stay in tune with things right in front of us that we can see…and that is the PC business. No longer is it “a high priced, make money off of business type of thing.” It is a commodity, where prices keep coming every lower and, to boot, sales of them, are doing ever lower– as other instruments have come out to usurp the industry. Now mind you, there’s still a ton of them sold. But in the world of the stock market which pays up for growth, it pays down for decelerating growth. And that’s what you’re getting in these companies.

So I would continue to stay away from them. HPQ was whacked today 1.56 to 17.60 on $72 million shares…almost 4x average volume. And that ain’t Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling.

Sometimes you can see it. You know when I go to a Best Buy (BBY) and you see that the parking lot is 50% of what it was a year ago, it tells you something. Peter Lynch was right aboit some things. He once said, “See it, hear it, feet it, touch it, taste it…it works in the market. Not 100% of the time. But a good amount. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/22/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/082218.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

There’s a great hedge fund manager by the name of Louis Bacon that decided to return billions of dollars to clients because, as he said – I can’t compete with politicians and central banks constantly interfering with the markets.

Meaning, when markets want to go down, they just open up their mouth and markets stop going down.

And, of course vice versa.

And he basically went onto echo everything that I’ve been telling you.

Today we got the minutes from the Fed meeting.

There’s hardly a day that goes by where they don’t leave markets alone. And let me be clear about something. They know what the heck they’re doing. They’re idiots, but they’re not big idiots. Well…I take that back.

So in the past couple of weeks, the bond market has been getting hit. What happens when bond prices come down? Yields go up. So we watch the 10-year yield go from about 1.4 and change to about 1.8 in change, which is still ridiculously low!

Conveniently, out of the Fed, in those minutes, were the Fed Heads discussing that maybe, just maybe, it would be a good idea to have more printing of money to buy bonds, which would take down long-term interest rates. Here’s what the said:

“Many participants expected that such a program could provide additional support for the economic recovery both by putting downward pressure on long-term interest rates by contributing to easier financial conditions more broadly.”

Well here is my answer to that.

You’re insane. Yes, you’re taking interest rates down, but there are repercussions longer-term just like everything you have ever done. In the short-term, you’re screwing the savers.

On top of that, we have never ever experienced such monetary easing. We’re not in a depression. We’re not in a recession. We still have GDP growth, yet they’re acting like it’s back to 2008 again when everything was following off the cliff. And we already know a couple of outcomes of massive, ridiculous over-the-top easing by the Fed:

  1. Led to the Nasdaq Bubble
  2. Completely and directly led to the Housing Bubble. There is no way, shape or form that Housing could get to the prices it got to without the Fed.

So the question is: What is this one going to lead to?

Today though, they got interests rates down a little bit. They interfered with the market again. And I’m starting to question whether the Fed is long Bond Futures. I wonder.

Of course it hit the dollar. And, of course, it rallied Gold again. But as far as the market goes…well it was much worse during the day and came back some – but still finished in the red at least in one of the areas.

The good news? Some good action in some leading names today. Some good action in Housing stocks today. Some good earnings out of Toll Brothers.

And, of course, they refuse to let the market correct.

Markets need to be able to go on their own. They need to have ebb and flow, based on the fear and greed of the people that are investing in it. And the dollars they are investing in it. The Federal Reserve refuses to let that dynamic happen. And there’s an old line that “If you throw sand into the wind, it’s going to come back eventually in to your face. The problem is that they’re not playing with their own money. They’re playing with invented money. They wouldn’t be doing this if it was their own money ladies and gentlemen.

I’m so sick and tired of watching this Fed continuing to interfere with the real market. The one that moves up and down based on the fear and greed of investors…not them. It’s a never ending yap-fest into order to manipulate and move things.

I just wonder at what point in time does the market take out its sword and starting cutting them back. Because eventually that will happen.

As I have told you, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, Countrywide, Bear Stearns – they didn’t go out of business.  The markets put them out of business because ultimately the market is bigger and there’s only so many trillions you can invent to move those markets…at least I thought.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/21/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/082118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Today, the market broke above resistance and then turned right back down. The market’s okay. Probably a little overbought, and ahead of itself. Probably going to pull back some more. And we’ll see how it goes.

Remember that September is not usually a thrilling month, but I don’t think the technical condition is bad enough that the market just turns right back down. You have to see distribution.

Today was a distribution day in the market. Churning and then sell-down. But it’s only one day and wouldn’t go further than that.

Gold Revisited

Yesterday, I had said to you that:

 …If Gold (GLD) breaks below 148, it’s going to find some serious technical selling. But it’s now above it…a little bit of a stair step up. And a move above 158 would potentially be bullish, meaning, it’s in an area of resistance where it can go higher. But after that you have 159 and change and then the 162 levels.

And by happenstance, Gold gapped up today on the gap up in the Euro. So it was up about 1.60 to almost 159.

And man, I had people calling me in my office today on because I mentioned it yesterday. I don’t know if I explained well to you except to tell you:

Okay technically, you’re holding the 50-day moving average that has kinda sorta stopped going down.

You’ve pulled into it twice and it held.

And now at today’s close, you’ve broken above, by a smidge, the first area of resistance.

I don’t know how much conviction I have on it though.

I’m just letting you know.

I’m not saying that it doesn’t just keep on running from here.

I’m just not sure of this.

But technically, it is definitive bullish move in Gold.

Something like Royal Gold (RLGD), which is the strongest Gold stock actually looks pretty decent with the potential to break out. As for the rest of the Gold stocks, I just noticed that Newmont Mining (NEM) was up nicely and they just sold it off. I saw in Goldcorp (GG) and some of the others so I’m unclear on all of that.

Now Silver, which moved above a little resistance yesterday, also gapped up a little bit today. That’s above first resistance off the lows…and well see.

Just1 remember, when you’re in a bear market and you’re trying to turn things around, it’s not an event. It is a process over time.

Now some of the people that called me today asked, “Is this it?”

And I tried to play the sarcasm game and I said, “Yeah, this is it.”

But it just doesn’t work that way. You see it move above a certain area. You place your bets. You put on your stop. And you’re done if it doesn’t work.

If it keeps going up and builds stair steps up – potentially add.

But that’s as far as I can go.

You can tell I’m kinda sorta nonplussed on it now.

But I’m all for it, if Gold just wants to ramp up out of here.

I’m just not sure just yet.

My conviction is on the low side.

We’ll see how it plays out. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/16/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/081618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I really liked the action today in the markets. Whether or not it continues beats the heck out of me. But we can only hope that good continues.

In the past seven days, the market looked like they were sitting, doing nothing. Today, it looked like the same thing. An economic report came out that didn’t look very good.

But then they started talking again in Europe. And then the Euro rallied. And everything Euro based (anti-Dollar based) rallied also…names like IBM, 3M and the like – they’re dollar based. They started rally and, of course, the commodities rallied.

There are some definable things happening right now. Let’s hope it lasts.

Here’s the good news.

  1. The Euro is still rallying. That means the dollar is going south. So the dollar plays continue to work. That means that one of the best beneficiaries of a strong dollar is IBM. Go look at their financials. When the dollar weakens, they do better. Sales go up. Earnings go up. Same for other multi-nationals like the 3Ms and the like. Also, when the dollar is weak, commodities go up. We are seeing that right now.
  2. The past 8 days, the market stayed in contracted volatility. And I said to you that the next move will win — in the short run.
    • Just by way of example, the S&P edged above this little range that it has been in.
    • The Nasdaq-100 edged above the little range it has been in.
    • Dow the little range it has been in.
    • The weaker Russell 2000 did not break above early July’s highs, but it broke above the past 7 or 8 days…and that’s a start.
    • The Small Cap 600 broke above.
    • The Mid Cap 400 edged above.

…catching the drift?

IF THIS MOVE HOLDS, it gives the market impetus to higher from here. It’s simplistic as that.

Often breakouts fail. But we deal with as it they come.

The old high on the S&P was 1422. We’ll see what happens up there.

The old high on the Dow was 13338. Getting close.

The Nasdaq’s old high was 3134. Getting there.

The Russell 2000’s old high…got some work to do.

So I just wanted to make note that we’ve edged out of some ranges here. On top of that, the Financials (see the XLF and IYF), both edged out today just by a smidge.

But other things moved out. The XHB, The Standard & Poors Homebuilders Index moved out into new high ground.

If this moves stick…good.  But there is no rule of thumb that says it will hold.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/15/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/081518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I’m letting you know that this second, a few of the leading growth names that I have been watching for myself, my money, as well as yours – are in setup mode here. Meaning they have some darn good patterns.

Now let’s hope they bust out of here.

Volume, however, continues to be on the lighter side. At least it feels very light, especially on the NYSE which is an absolute joke, as far as volume is concerned.

The potentially good news is that the past seven days, the market has sat tight as can be as far as the indices are concerned.

Next day wins.

What do I mean by that? If it’s up nicely, we’ll get a move out of this range and attempt to get to the highs of the year. If we move down out of the range, we’ll have a little correction, of unknown price and time.

It’s pretty simple. Sometimes it gets to be that simple.

Thinks have quieted down on Wall Street. There’s still some economic numbers coming out, mostly not that great. There were some poor economic numbers coming out of Europe. I do know the retail numbers were better than expected. But that’s a fleeting number.

So we watch the tape. So as I’ve said to you, the good news is that there’s some names setting up. We’ll keep our fingers crossed that they all decide to bust out together, because if that occurs, we must definitely have another leg up on the market, of unknown time, price, and consequence.

The tape remains split around 50/50. About 50% of what I’m seeing that is in bad shape or in downtrend with things we don’t look at. Gun stocks look like they topped out and topped out badly.

We’ll take it one day at a time. As I’ve said to you, they’ not going to make it easy. It’s very important now to not let the news influence your decisions as markets will move up on what’s supposed to be bad news. Just like they will move down on what’s supposed to be good news.

I must tell you: Most of everything I read has the edge of bad news.

The economy.

Taxes.

The fiscal cliff.

Socialism.

Europe.

Afghanistan and Iraq imploding.

Iran trying to get Israel off the face of the Earth.

I can pretty much go on and on with these things I read on a daily basis. You have to be careful about all of this.

When the markets lifted off in 1982 into another glorious bull market, EVERY BIT OF NEWS WAS NEGATIVE.

So watch the market.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.