[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/082218.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

There’s a great hedge fund manager by the name of Louis Bacon that decided to return billions of dollars to clients because, as he said – I can’t compete with politicians and central banks constantly interfering with the markets.

Meaning, when markets want to go down, they just open up their mouth and markets stop going down.

And, of course vice versa.

And he basically went onto echo everything that I’ve been telling you.

Today we got the minutes from the Fed meeting.

There’s hardly a day that goes by where they don’t leave markets alone. And let me be clear about something. They know what the heck they’re doing. They’re idiots, but they’re not big idiots. Well…I take that back.

So in the past couple of weeks, the bond market has been getting hit. What happens when bond prices come down? Yields go up. So we watch the 10-year yield go from about 1.4 and change to about 1.8 in change, which is still ridiculously low!

Conveniently, out of the Fed, in those minutes, were the Fed Heads discussing that maybe, just maybe, it would be a good idea to have more printing of money to buy bonds, which would take down long-term interest rates. Here’s what the said:

“Many participants expected that such a program could provide additional support for the economic recovery both by putting downward pressure on long-term interest rates by contributing to easier financial conditions more broadly.”

Well here is my answer to that.

You’re insane. Yes, you’re taking interest rates down, but there are repercussions longer-term just like everything you have ever done. In the short-term, you’re screwing the savers.

On top of that, we have never ever experienced such monetary easing. We’re not in a depression. We’re not in a recession. We still have GDP growth, yet they’re acting like it’s back to 2008 again when everything was following off the cliff. And we already know a couple of outcomes of massive, ridiculous over-the-top easing by the Fed:

1. Led to the Nasdaq Bubble
2. Completely and directly led to the Housing Bubble. There is no way, shape or form that Housing could get to the prices it got to without the Fed.

So the question is: What is this one going to lead to?

Today though, they got interests rates down a little bit. They interfered with the market again. And I’m starting to question whether the Fed is long Bond Futures. I wonder.

Of course it hit the dollar. And, of course, it rallied Gold again. But as far as the market goes…well it was much worse during the day and came back some – but still finished in the red at least in one of the areas.

The good news? Some good action in some leading names today. Some good action in Housing stocks today. Some good earnings out of Toll Brothers.

And, of course, they refuse to let the market correct.

Markets need to be able to go on their own. They need to have ebb and flow, based on the fear and greed of the people that are investing in it. And the dollars they are investing in it. The Federal Reserve refuses to let that dynamic happen. And there’s an old line that “If you throw sand into the wind, it’s going to come back eventually in to your face. The problem is that they’re not playing with their own money. They’re playing with invented money. They wouldn’t be doing this if it was their own money ladies and gentlemen.

I’m so sick and tired of watching this Fed continuing to interfere with the real market. The one that moves up and down based on the fear and greed of investors…not them. It’s a never ending yap-fest into order to manipulate and move things.

I just wonder at what point in time does the market take out its sword and starting cutting them back. Because eventually that will happen.

As I have told you, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, Countrywide, Bear Stearns – they didn’t go out of business.  The markets put them out of business because ultimately the market is bigger and there’s only so many trillions you can invent to move those markets…at least I thought.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/081618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I really liked the action today in the markets. Whether or not it continues beats the heck out of me. But we can only hope that good continues.

In the past seven days, the market looked like they were sitting, doing nothing. Today, it looked like the same thing. An economic report came out that didn’t look very good.

But then they started talking again in Europe. And then the Euro rallied. And everything Euro based (anti-Dollar based) rallied also…names like IBM, 3M and the like – they’re dollar based. They started rally and, of course, the commodities rallied.

There are some definable things happening right now. Let’s hope it lasts.

Here’s the good news.

1. The Euro is still rallying. That means the dollar is going south. So the dollar plays continue to work. That means that one of the best beneficiaries of a strong dollar is IBM. Go look at their financials. When the dollar weakens, they do better. Sales go up. Earnings go up. Same for other multi-nationals like the 3Ms and the like. Also, when the dollar is weak, commodities go up. We are seeing that right now.
2. The past 8 days, the market stayed in contracted volatility. And I said to you that the next move will win — in the short run.
   • Just by way of example, the S&P edged above this little range that it has been in.
   • The Nasdaq-100 edged above the little range it has been in.
   • Dow the little range it has been in.
   • The weaker Russell 2000 did not break above early July’s highs, but it broke above the past 7 or 8 days…and that’s a start.
   • The Small Cap 600 broke above.
   • The Mid Cap 400 edged above.

…catching the drift?

IF THIS MOVE HOLDS, it gives the market impetus to higher from here. It’s simplistic as that.

Often breakouts fail. But we deal with as it they come.

The old high on the S&P was 1422. We’ll see what happens up there.

The old high on the Dow was 13338. Getting close.

The Nasdaq’s old high was 3134. Getting there.

The Russell 2000’s old high…got some work to do.

So I just wanted to make note that we’ve edged out of some ranges here. On top of that, the Financials (see the XLF and IYF), both edged out today just by a smidge.

But other things moved out. The XHB, The Standard & Poors Homebuilders Index moved out into new high ground.

If this moves stick…good.  But there is no rule of thumb that says it will hold.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/081318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

We’re about 90 days from the election and I must address the latest news. As you know Mitt Romney has chosen my favorite person in Washington when it comes to you and your money, to be his Vice President.

As you know, I never used to talk politics on this show. Never.

I hardly talked about the Fed.

I never talked about Wall Street. In fact, I defended Wall Street, saying they’re not crooks.

I would like to say, slowly but surely, we got more interference, more corruption and more criminal activity – but it actually came pretty quickly. And we had to start talking about what was going on in Washington DC.

Back in the year 2000, in Bill Clinton’s last budget, the U.S. spent $1.8 trillion. And mind you, debt was piling on to the tune of trillions over a good period of time.

During Bill Clinton’s tenure, he got together with Republicans and they basically balanced the budget, which means spend what you take in.

What a freak’in concept! Balance your budget. And throughout history, we have heard Democrats and Republicans both say, “We need to balance the budget.”

So we walked into the George Bush era. I remember the economy went into a little recession, (nothing bad) when he took over. And we started a secular Bear Market because we had a big, gigantic bubble at the end of 1999.

Then 9-11 hit. And the economy went south. The airlines and the travel industry got hit. I remember going to Las Vegas just two weeks later and there was hardly anyone there. And George Bush lowered taxes and gave out some checks. I remember everybody got $300 or something like that.

And all we heard after that was: “George Bush is doing to destroy the country. Tax cuts to the wealthy. It’s terrible.”

People like Paul Krugman wanted to hang him.

And the deficits at that time on an annual basis were $200 to $300 billion.

But something funny happened. We were running the deficits, but income into the Treasury spiked higher in the mid-2000s. So what happened? They kept spending. The Republicans kept spending. And the war, which they left off budget, had to be put back on.

George Bush went his 8 years and after inheriting big debt (not deficits) on a yearly basis, he ran it up over $4 trillion over eight years. These are not exact numbers, but they’re close.

Which takes us to Barack Obama. During Barack Obama’s campaign he said he would not treat taxpayer dollars like Monopoly Money. He said he would go line by line through the budget and weed out the waste. It’s all on YouTube.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIPJCrSS7j0

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZY4D-Yy97gg

And then he announces a stimulus of $800 billion. We were told that a ton of it’s going into infrastructure. We need to fix our highways and bridges.

We were told that. We were told that they they’d be careful with every dime. Efficient and effective.

And then something happened. George Bush’s last spending year was about $2.7 trillion…somewhere in there. Of course we had a TARP which was $800 billion. A “onetime” TARP.

Obama comes in and raises spending from about $2.7 trillion to $3.7 trillion straight up, without any increase in money taken by the government. That meant that every dime of increased spending, was deficit spending. People would have to loan that money to us and we’d have to pay it back.

In other words…a tax. Because who pays it back? You and I and the business world. It’s a tax on corporations and individuals. It’s a tax. A deficit is a tax.

In only 3 1/2 years, Barrack Obama has brought on more debt than George Bush in his whole eight years.

But we are told that it is not his fault. That the debt ballooned on George Bush’s watch even though anybody can go to the web and see, it’s all in plain sight.

And then we get a healthcare bill that was sold to us on the premise that it will only cost us over a 10-year period, $800 billion. But we’ll get it back in savings.

But now that number’s $1.7 trillion!

Now they use the word “cost.”

No. It’s a tax. A cost to government is a tax to you and me. So as of this second, this country is running on a yearly basis anywhere basis anywhere from a $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion (not including the new health care bill) that comes out of you and me.

A tax. To where we’re now $16 trillion in debt.

Paul Ryan

So I find a gentleman by the name of Paul Ryan that I had no idea about a couple years ago.

And I listened to him and I watched him. And he said we have to cut the spending and the deficits.

Or else.

And frankly, he was just repeating what so many other politicians have been yelling about for 15 years. They can talk until they’re blue in face because in the past 10 seconds our debt just went up $400,000. For the next 10 years, if there’s nothing done we will run $1 to $2 trillion deficits as far as the eye can see. And that’s tax increases on you and me and that comes out of the economy.

That’s all I care about.

So you have one man with the grapefruits to actually come out and say we’ve got to cut spending and get deficits under control. That’s all he’s saying!

He’s saying, “Barack Obama, you took spending from $2.7 trillion to $3.7 trillion overnight. What’s changed from four years ago that we can’t go back to $2.7 trillion? Let’s cut it half!”

Are they replying: “I’m glad you care about fiscal health and well-being of this country… let’s sit down and look at this?”

No! They call him a racist, an extremist, a radical who doesn’t care about the elderly.  You want to talk food off the table of children. You hope the elderly die so that we don’t have to pay for their healthcare. You hate Hispanics.

Ladies and gentlemen, let me tell you want is extreme. It’s spending $1.3 trillion a year that you’re not taking in! And then lying about! And then blaming it on others!

You’ve had two years of unfettered power and another year a half to do something about it…and now you don’t even pretend to care about it.

There’s no talk about fixing deficits from this administration. The only talk from this administration is how do we raise taxes to pay for this sham of spending that was supposed to go to our roads and bridges and never did.

Where is that trillion dollars a year going? Where is the list?

I’d like to know. But no. It’s bad to try and fix the deficits.

GOD FOBID WE CAN’T DO THAT!

Ladies and gentlemen, they’re taunting the markets. They’re taunting you. They’re screwing you. The have raided the Treasury for the next six years and they have no plans for changing it. And I don’t know what works and what doesn’t. What I do know is that if you take in $2.5 trillion, you can’t spend $3.8 trillion.

Yet that’s what they’re doing. But they ain’t talking about it.

But those that do and who want to cut that down to size are called extremists and radicals. There’s only one group that’s extremist and radical. It’s the group that’s spending $1.3 trillion that they don’t have.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/080218.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Last week the market was breaking down. The Fed planted a story about the things they’re going to do going forward.

And then the Fed did nothing.

The European Central Bank (ECB) came out with “shock and awe” in fixing Europe. And they said they’d be buying up bonds to keep interest rates down. And the market gaps up 250 and goes up another 200 on those words.

In the past, I would tell you that nobody’s words could really move the markets.

I can’t tell you that anymore. So the market goes up that much and now it’s kinda coming down that much.

Why?

The same person who yapped last week about everything’s that going to get done, did absolutely nothing today.

The amazing part of the equation is that the same people read newspapers.

He knows the markets are waiting.

And he never even was in the game.

So the Russell 2000 has given back that whole move of last week.

The Midcap 400, just about all of that move.

Some of the other markets up a little bit.

But I gotta tell you…it’s just a pain in the rear.

Why?

Because I’m a big believer that markets need to move on their own. And right now they are not.

There’s not a day that goes by where somebody’s not yapping. And I don’t know how we got to the point where the market cares so much about it. But it is what it is. And I think all these people know it and still keep doing what they’re doing.

For the president of the European Central Bank to come out and talk about how “We are going to do everything in our power,” knowing that market is waiting on him today – and then he does absolutely nothing – it’s sickening.

Of course, the market was down pretty decently today, though it did come back towards the end of the day…somewhat.

So all I can do is keep telling you where I think leadership is, what areas you should stay away from, and what I’m doing.

I’m not committing a lot of funds. Why would I? And I’m using close stops and the 50-day/10-week moving average most of the time. I will commit a ton of funds when we get a big gigantic fat pitch.

And all we have been getting is whip-saw city based on a bunch of nonsense. The economy and the markets would be so much better without these central banks.

How can that be?

Because markets would fix themselves over time

That’s what is known as supply and demand. The free market. What a concept.

And if something has to drop or something has to go bankrupt, so be it. Somebody else will take the place.

You remember all those banks and brokerages going out of business.

The end of the world coming?

No!

They’re gone and others flourished because of their stupidity.

That’s how it works. In the world of supply and demand, companies that took their eye off the ball like Research in Motion and Nokia, have their stock prices drown.

While companies who took advantage of the marketplace like Apple do well.

Supply and demand…what a concept.

Hopefully, we get back to that point in the markets because I gotta tell you, volume and interest continues to drip away. But I’m never going to lose interest. Because once we get down to those valuations, and past this cycle, we’re going to have another monster 15 year market.

So stay in gear. I’ll keep whining and complaining. Maybe somebody in power will listen.

There will be great companies, great stocks, great markets and sectors – the future. We just don’t know when. But we will see their characteristics when they show up. So when everybody else gets discouraged, start chomping at the bit.

1982 to 2000 was good.

And we’ll get that again.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/073118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Media Bias

The government is doing $1.3 trillion in debt per year.

It’s about 98 days until the election. Just remember, neither you nor I caused the deficits. It’s all them: George Bush…Barrack Obama and their people.

Before George Bush, deficits were under control. And then, the deficits went out of control and nobody did anything about it. John Boehner did nothing while George Bush was over overseeing it. And now John Boehner is the loudest voice while Obama does it. Well Obama’s making George Bush look like a piker. And he doesn’t care.

The Market: Here’s My Little Worry

Last Tuesday, the Dow was down 200. And then it rallied up a hundred points because a planted story to the media got out. Let me be clear. It WAS planted. That stuff doesn’t get out there by happenstance. And the plant was basically about how the Fed could be closer to doing something new, like printing more money. And then Wednesday was a non-event. Thursday morning the futures were down a little bit. The Bernanke’s compatriot, Draghi, announced that they were ready to do the same thing that our Fed’s doing.

The market gapped up 250 points on Thursday and then closed up around 200. And then Friday, the people from Italy, Germany and France all came and talked about what they’re going to do to defend the Euro to get things better. And then about 1:30p, bond buying was announced – which is printing of money. They’re going to print money and buy up bonds in order to drive interest rates down. The reason is that interest rates are skyrocketing because the real market said to Spain and Italy, “We’re not funding you anymore.”

So what’s my worry?

1. That every move up in the market is because of what a Central Bank says or does.
2. That it was the end of the month window dressing.

So we’re entering August.

The Fed is meeting and Wednesday they’re going to come out and announce whatever they’re going to do or not do. I have absolutely no idea what they’re going to do or what they’re going to say. And I have no idea how the markets going to react to it. The fact is they have been printing and easing and will continue no matter what they said.

But…

My thought process is that the market is so set up for the Fed to do something that – what happens if they don’t do something?

And what if they do something that the market reacts negatively to?

And of course, you have the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday.

Then…Friday you have the “Fake Employment Numbers.”

And, of course, they’re fake. 8.2 unemployment? Supposedly, millions of people have left the job market in the past 3 ½ – 4 years. You add those people back and we’re at 11%. You add half of those people back, you’re still at 9 point something.

And I’ve written the Labor Department and asked them for the list of people that supposedly have left the workforce in order to make the unemployment rate look better. No answer.

So we’re going to get a lot of fun stuff over the next three days.

We’ll see how the market reacts.

Me? I’ve been playing this nauseating whipsawing news-driven trading range very lightly. I have not been anywhere near fully invested, because it doesn’t pay to be. That’s how I’m playing it. My stops are the usual. Breaking below the 50-day moving average. Or even before that.

And I’ll wait for a big fat pitch in the market. And the big fat pitch certainly ain’t a 250 point gap from the lows of a range, off of what somebody said. If we start to really get going and get progress, then we’re talking.

I’m not sure we’re there yet. But I’m open to anything.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download