12/22/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/122218.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

5 days left of trading in the year.

I listen back through my radio shows and, man, do I sound like a cynic these days. But I have to tell you that the cynicism has been earned by the people that should be blasted.

I’ve told you that, the last 10 out of 10 years, the market has been up from Veterans Day until the end of the year…as well as 22 out of the past 24 years.

And how is that possible?

All these “Big Boys” whether they’re hedge funds, mutual funds, investment funds…whatever they are – they get paid their fees at the end of the month, at the end of the year and, many by the quarter.

So they paint the tape into the end of those times. And that is not an opinion.

GO BACK AND LOOK. I DON’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP.

Since Veteran’s Day the market been down, but I kept telling you the market looks horrible, there’s no leadership… but it ain’t the end of the year yet.

And we walked into this week, when they were really starting to break some things down. The Financials were getting busted. BankAmerica was under 5 and as I told you, that’s important because by their charter or laws or whatever they use as their terminology, the Big Boys wouldn’t be able to own BankAmerica, which means they’d have to sell it.

And Tuesday we gapped up. Out of nowhere. No news.

And then yesterday, I didn’t predict. I gave you facts. I told you that if the market was going to higher into the end of the year, they will do it with the Financials. Why? Because, they’re a huge part of the S&P. And if they get the Financials moving, that’ll put some confidence into other areas…namely the Semis.

The Financials were very strong today. The Semis were very strong today.  Happenstance? Accident on purpose? I’LL LET YOU DECIDE. All I know are the facts.

Get this…the excuse for the Semis having a strong day…Micron (MU) missed estimates, both revenues and earnings…warned going forward…and they reported an ungodly loss. Stock was up 14% today.  The SOX was up by about 3 1/2%

Agenda? I’LL LET YOU DECIDE.

I just hearken by to ’07, where at the end of the year they popped things up and as we came into January ’08, the bear resumed.

I’m not saying the same thing is going to happen. I’m saying, as a cynic, that if they are painting the tape, they’re doing it in exactly as I thought and as I told you.

Not to mention, I noticed something else today. The oils are weak, except for Chevron and Exxon. They’ve popped up this week. Oh yeah, Chevron and Exxon are on the Dow. Between those two stocks: Total 12 points, which is equivalent to about 112 Dow points, this week.

Just trying to be a little CSI for you. Because while they’re doing this, there’s still very little leadership. There’s no growth leadership. And whenever the market rallies, it is the worst areas getting the bid, because the Financials and Semiconductors that have been the worst areas.

I’m going to be watching closely as we enter the new year. Maybe they’re bottoming. The cynic in my says no. We’ll let the market decide. 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

12/21/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/122118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

The markets were acting poorly coming into yesterday. The financials were really getting whacked. Bank of America dropped under $5.00 for a little while. There were new lows on a lot of banks, and then yesterday…we gap up, finishing up 330 points, Nasdaq up 70.

What led? THE BANKS.

I have talked to you on this show about end-of-the-year window dressing…”painting the tape” making sure the market’s up no matter what. And I have this thesis in my mind:

If tomorrow, we were nuked, the Dow would go  down 1000 points and then finish flat by 4:00p ET, the people would come on TV saying this:

“…While we got nuked, because of all the “new construction” that would be going on, the economy’s going to be strong — so the market got bought up…”

No. It would be the end of the year window dressing. By the way, that was  a  joke.

We now have two days left this week. Four days next week. The market will get illiquid Friday which means they move the market easier. And the same will go for next Thursday and Friday as we have this Monday and the next Monday off, for Christmas and New Year’s.

When I talk about end-of-quarter window dressing , end of year, end of month and painting the tape, that means the Big Boys will do everything possible to keep markets up or going higher. And they typically know where to attack. They know the areas that have the most influence on the markets.

If you take financials and commodities and add’em up, that’s about 45% of the S&P. Now these have been your weakest areas…but oversold. So if the can get them moving, that’ll help the market.

Now the market was very weak today, with the Dow down 100. I got some emails from people and I said:

“Watch, they’re going to buy up the financials, the commodities and the oils… and that’s exactly what happened today.

Six days left. I’m not worried about December. I want to see how this plays out into January.

SPECIAL NOTE: Be sure to register now for my next live Webinar on Saturday January 21, 2012. I will talk about the important implications of early-January’s market action…and much more.  

Click here for more information

 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

12/20/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/122018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

In the past few weeks, I’ve been telling you that the end of the year has a tremendous track record.

The last 10 out of 10 years, from Veterans Day until the end of the year – UP.

The past 22 out of the 24 years – UP.

Yet since Veterans Day, the market has been kinda sucking wind. And every day, I’ve been coming on this show  saying, “Wow, is it ugly…there is no leadership…Wow they just can’t get this market moving.”

And then what happens? At the end of November, 2 huge gaps up in the market, making the end of the month look so much better. Then the market tops out again into yesterday.

…Leaving only eight days left in the year with the S&P down for year. With the NYSE, the Russell and the other indices down a decent amount. Foreign markets, basically trashed. What do they do?

They gapped it up 260 points today…and had a very strong day…the third huge gap since November 28.

Leave no doubt I play the market as it comes. I will let the market dictate no matter. But for me, I think they have started the “mark up” period — now with seven days left.

And of course, this Friday things will quiet down. And of course, next Friday will quiet down. I am thinking  that the S&P will be above 1258 because 1258 is where the S&P started this year. They’re going to do their very best.

I’m letting you know, I’ll play it as it comes:

If we can get leadership..,

If we can get stocks breaking out on heavy volume…

If we can start to see some success in those moves…and then more and more names show up…I WILL BE DO EVERYTHING TO BE ALL OVER IT.

But as of right now, it’s one day up. I do expect higher prices at the end of the year. ..but I will need leadership.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

12/19/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/121918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

Since the two big gap-up days on the European news, nothing has happened.

In the last week, I’ve been starting to tell you things that I haven’t told you in a while. That the market was acting very bearishly…and I’m worried…even though we’re in this area we call “seasonal strength.”

We can only go by precedent – which is never 100%. The last 10 out of 10 years, the market has been up from Veterans Day until the end of the year as well as 22 out of the past 24 years. I have to believe they are going to rally this into end of year…but so far, nothing doing.

No matter what, there’s been no leadership. And then last week,  a lot of things started to roll over and there was no relief from that today.

Typically in the last 8 days left in the year, they will paint the tape. But they ain’t painting nothing yet!

And they’re playing no favorites. Especially in the one area that I told you topped out first in February and was acting like it was ’08 all over again…the financials.

THE FINANCIALS CONTINUE TO BE BLUDGEONED. ABSOLUTELY BLUDGEONED.

As the market was up early – the financials kept leaking and leaking…acting horrid.

I thought this action would come in January. As stated right now, the market is not waiting.

  • The new low list, picking up markedly.
  • The new high list, ain’t much.

In the last week, the new high list has been some big drug companies, utilities, and tobacco. That’s it.

The dollar continues in its strength as the default currency. The Euro…acting like the New York Giants. Good if you’re visiting Europe from here. Bad for the markets.

I am still quite the worried person about January. We’ll see if the end of year rally does indeed come. 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

12/15/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/121518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

We’ve had a pretty icky market as of late–what I’ve been describing as bearish action. A lot of areas are breaking down. I don’t like what I’m seeing…a lot of growth leaders in trouble.  

At the very least, there’s just not much to do, as there’s not much leadership in the market.

Every day I read you the new high list. I can it quite quickly (about 12 seconds) because there are not many new highs. And we’re talking about yearly highs. That really defines whether you have a good market or not.

“…Whether you have great growth leadership breaking out to new highs…”

We have 10 trade days left this year. And in surprising fashion, the market is down decently since Veterans Day even though the last 10 out 10 years it’s been up and the last 22 out 24 years it’s been up. So you can take the seasonality and just throw it out the window.

And frankly what I think is really happening here, if I was just guessing:

Those two big gap days we had on this Europe thing…that had been what the market wanted to do into the end of the year. Except it was kinda forced on the news of…whatever of that news was.

And frankly, Einstein couldn’t understand what the heck they’re talking about coming out of Europe.

So this continues to be a time for patience…or you just get carved up.

And the most importing thing you can do right now is to keep your capital near its high watermark for when this thing ultimately turns. And it will definitely turn. It is a guarantee that we will have another bull market out this. You just don’t know when. 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

12/14/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/121418.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

From February to March, I started warning you of an impending top. I had the reasons. I told you what I was seeing. I started with the financials and then the semiconductors.

We went through a real bearish market, culminating with what I consider to be a crash...except it happened in 8 days instead of 1. And then we had the most wild action from August to October,..I think we had about 6 or 7 10% moves.

October 4th, we had a washout day. I told we were going to rally, and we did rally up strong.

But something happened on the way to that rally.

As I told you on many days — NO LEADERSHIP, A LOT OF THINGS STILL LAGGING, FINANCIALS IN A BEAR AND MANY OTHER THINGS IN A BEAR. Small caps really laboring badly vs. the larger caps...and on and on and on.

And so we got hit into late November...November 25. And then we had those big gaps to the upside. That was based on a couple announcements from Europe…that they were going to “save the world.” And as we rallied up, still no leadership.

Yesterday, I came on the show and said we just dropped for a couple days and normally a drop of a couple day is no biggie. I told you yesterday, there was a bearish consequence and I thought the market was acting very bearishly. A lot of stocks starting to break support.

You had Gold breaking something that has held since January 2009, and nothing has changed. The market acted even more bearishly today.

And the interesting part of this equation: It is happening in period of what is supposed to be seasonal strength from Veteran’s Day till New Years.

Now, very simply. They can start rallying this up. It can it happen. I don’t see a reason that it couldn’t. But any rally up will contain a clear lack of leadership and not much to do.

My big worry has been December...it was come January. But the market’s not even really waiting right now and today, they started to come after anything that was holding up.

So the best way to explain it..I just think it’s very bearish action. I told you that yesterday and I say it again today. In the short-term, we could walk into a good up day — a gap for all I know. Anything’s possible.

BUT THE BIG PICTURE IS SIMPLE: THINGS ARE WORSENING. And I will leave it at that for this second.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

12/09/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/120918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

14 days of trading left in the year.  The spasticity of the market has not died down. As I told you, the market from Veterans Day to the end of the year has been higher for the past 10 out of 10 years, and 22 out of the past 24.

Right after Veterans Day the market got whacked, coming into last week, and then we gapped up 2 days — got almost all of it back. Played around this week, had a rough day yesterday. And then yesterday I said,  just tongue in check, “we’ll just gap up 200 tomorrow.”  We’ll we didn’t get 200, but we had a good day.

A few chinks in the armor, but I’m going to give a bunch of names for your review over the weekend. These are the leading growth names have held up best, while the markets been going through whatever it’s going through.

If we ever do get a life out of here, I’ve got the names. It’s pretty simple. There is a decent amount of names potentially setting up. If they can start punching through to the upside with volume, then we can start talking.

  • Apple (AAPL), remains in a six-month trading range, tightening up a little bit along the 50-Day MA.  Just moved off the 200-day moving average. Here is the problem, this rally up, has shown no accumulation whatsoever.
  • Chipotle (CMG), pretty much like Apple. Rangebound for 5 to 6 months. Showing support along the 200-day moving average. Very little volume on moves up to the highs.
  • Google (GOOG), acting pretty decently. Earnings are fine.
  • Hansen Natural (HANS) strong, but a rally for two weeks on declining volume. Still, on a relative basis very strong.
  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) needs to pop above 450 on good volume.
  • Master Card (MA), It’s ascending, but volume starting lighten up as it ascends.
  • VISA’s (V) strong also.
  • Panera (PNRA) nice pullback, was up okay today.
  • Underarmor (UA), pulling back toward the 50-day, needs to break above 85.
  • McDonald, remains strong, overextended.
  • IBM into new high ground

The good news about today...lots of green in the strongest areas of the market. That’s what I like to see. What was missing? There was just no volume whatsoever. When I see some stocks like Master Card up 8...I want to see some volume. Until I see some real conviction behind it, you’ve got to question the duration. Volume is about conviction. Always has been, always will be.

I think we’re going higher into the end of the year. It’s that seasonal strength brought on by the people that are down big this year. And I read a story where a ton of hedge funds are doing 15% to 20%. They’re going to do everything possible not to sell, which means go up and then...they come selling in January. Now that’s illegal — painting the tape. But they know not a single one of them is going to jail. So they continue to do it.

The “big news” today...another 900 billion Euros this time...to save the world. I gotta tell you that there’s so much printed money flying around right now. I don’t know where it comes from. I don’t know what its for.  And I feel like a I have a pretty decent eye on this stuff. It’s really just a joke. You have stupid people who caused the problem, telling you they know how to fix it. It’s quite an amazing thing to watch.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

12/08/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/120818.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

I’ve been telling you for months that I’m not going to commit a lot of capital to this market. I going to take my time. It’s impossible to play —

  • When you have a crash.
  • When you 10% rallies and 10% drops in  days
  • And you do that around 8 more times.
  • Then a wash out low that goes up 5 days straight without a pullback.
  • And you get gaps left and right, up and down and all around.

Today was a case in point. Today’s action…all on rumors and news, and supposed rumors of news.

And we have one more day of it coming tomorrow. The European Summit…a bunch of people that have caused huge gigantic debt problems…telling us that they’re going to solve those problems.

I will continue to be patient…Take my time, not commit a lot of capital.

I’VE BEEN READING A BOOK ABOUT JESSE LIVERMORE AND HIS THOUGHT PROCESS…HE SAYS “WHEN IT AIN’T RIPE, DON’T PICK.

When you are dealing with nauseating human beings that have created massive amounts of debt, destroyed their economies and they’re the ones that are going to fix it — with massive amounts of debt.

So I will just say this:

We’re around that 200-day moving average, as the market rallied back into it. It seems to be that the Big Boys are distributing stock, and they distributed well today. And we’ll see what comes of this. As I’ve been telling you throughout this 8-day jaunt to the upside…

THERE’S VERY LITTLE LEADERSHIP.

LEADING GROWTH NAMES HAVE BEEN TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDST OF THIS RALLY UP. NAMES LIKE BIDU, PRICELINE, AMAZON, DECKER, WYNN RESORTS…WE’LL NEED TO SEE BETTER.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

12/07/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/120718.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

Today’s market…just sheer insanity again.

When it is announced or rumored of more debt and leverage to fix the problem of debt and leverage, the financials rally.

There were several rumors throughout the day. They’re ruining the markets. That’s all I can tell you. Back in 1978ish, people got so fed up with it that they just left the markets and they didn’t get back in for years.

We’ve been seeing volume drip and drip and go lower and lower recently. The feel is – is there a fair shake? I’m a big believer in the long run. There will always be  great leading stocks which will always be paid up for and the crappy ones will be sold down. So I’m not so worried about this.

THE CREAM WILL RISE TO THE TOP. THERE WILL BE NEW APPLES, THERE WILL BE NEW CISCOS AND MICROSOFTS AND HOME DEPOTS. I’M AM SURE OF THAT.

We’ve seen a lot of IPOs recently. I think some are good companies, but they’re coming out with valuations that you can’t make money on.The IPOs are getting smoked left and right because in a difficult market, the curtains come down on companies’ valuations and ones that aren’t making any money.

I kinda think I’m better off not watching the market throughout the day because the intraday action is just stupid. I’m not a daytrader.Nobody knows what the next day’s gonna be and there’s never been a time at which I got to sleep with my expectation that the markets going to gap up or down a couple hundred points everyday…and then when it doesn’t, it’s actually a surprise.

But we will come out of this. When? I don’t know, but we will.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

12/06/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/120618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

I am feeling the manic debt buildup, now going on. There’s no caution. There’s no forethought of what will come out on the other side. It’s just damn the torpedoes straight ahead. The Fed’s job has never been to interfere with markets. But of course, that’s what we got going right now and they’s why we have this manic activities in the markets.

The same people that caused the problem are the ones that are still in power. They’re telling you they’re going to fix the problem with the same things that caused the problem in the first place. No accountability on the moves they make, with debt rising evermore.

The people who are trying to do the right thing are being called racists and extremists and people who do not care about the poor, downtrodden and elderly. It is a scam perpetrated by the people that put us into this massive debt.

The Markets

The biggest leaders of the prior bull market are acting horrid — in the midst of continuous topping out. At the same time, so many areas that have been acting better and lifting the market up recently are not in bull markets...just recovering some.

So we’re in December with 17 days left. As I’ve been saying, they’re going to do everything they can to paint the tape.

JANUARY’S GOING TO BE INTERESTING.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.