08/29/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/082918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

One Man

What’s happened in the past 2 or 3 days? Nothing. The market’s in wait and see mode.

And it’s sickening, as a market person, to have to deal with the things we’re having to deal with. I have to tell you, when it comes to Fed, nobody ever use to talk. Alan Greenspan never used to say a thing. And every month they used to have their meeting and typically they wouldn’t do anything. The only time they would do something is if the economy went into some sort of recession.

If the economy was really slowing down, they’d lower interest rates by a quarter of point…and maybe throw in another quarter the next month…and then the next month. And then as the economy got better, they’d start raising rates to hold off inflation and that was it.

But now, for some reason the tape is has come off the months of all the Fed Heads and on top of that, we have this.

You know what I think the final outcome of all of this is. I don’t know when or where because there’s nothing they’ve ever done that hasn’t created big bubbles because all they do use more debt and leverage and fake money (printed money out of thin air).

And so what we’re waiting for is for Ben Bernanke to do a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And the expectation is that he is going to announce more printing of dollars that he doesn’t having in order to buy bonds to lower interest rates in order to help the economy, even though the 10-year is already down 1.65 and the 30-year is at 2.76.

And as I have told you, he doesn’t care about the economy at this point in time because he can’t do anything about. His goal is just to get the market up because he thinks if the market goes up, the wealth effect will cause people to feel more rich and they’ll spend more.

But there’s a problem with all of this.

#1, he’s screwing the savers by keeping the rates at zero.

And #2, we don’t know what he’s playing with. No one can even fathom this over the top, monolithic, never before seen in history by the umpteenth power, easy money policy of zero percent rates, the outright printing of money, and manipulating and inferring with biggest market in the world – our bond market.

So we’ll see. What’s happening this week as volume is ridiculously low is:

  1. We’re heading toward Labor Day. It’s the end of the summer. It usually quiets down.
  2. Who the heck wants to commit a dime because if he Bernanke announces a couple trillion bucks, maybe the market rallies. Of maybe the market just changes and shoots a certain finger up at Ben Bernanke and goes down on that news. Or if he does nothing – who knows?

But here’s the problem. Out of the past six days, we’ve had several comments out of Fed Heads. And you what? They all contradicted each other.

Seriously.

  • We’ve had one say, “We’ll nothing’s going to happen just because we have to wait and see more evidence come in.”
  • Another one said, “We haven’t talked about it yet, so we have to see what happens.”
  • Another one said, “Oh yeah, we need to print more money.” (Of course, they don’t use the term “print more money” because those words make them look bad)
  • And Bernanke intimated – didn’t say – but intimated that “We’ll we’re looking at printing more money.

And that’s what everybody’s waiting for.

This is what we have to wait for.

One man.

  • A man who has never ever run a business, had a payroll, was fired, had to fire, or anything that has to do with business. Never been in the markets. Been an academic and a government hack since day one.
  • Been wrong 90% of the time.
  • Missed the whole housing crisis and only reacted after prices were already in depression.
  • Said sub-prime lending was okay – with him and Alan Greenspan.
  • And while things were in a debacle, he was saying things were contained and that the housing market would not affect the economy – until it did.
  • And what was his answer to the problems that we’re caused by too much easing and leverage and debt? MORE EASING AND LEVERAGE AND DEBT.

…because that’s all these people know. Create more money.

So we’ll see. As I have said before, I hope I’m wrong. But I have to tell you something. You see that Internet Bubble and that Housing Bubble?

What we’re seeing in the bond market is going to overshadow those bubbles, like we haven’t seen. That usually the cause and effect of what they’re doing. Of course, everything’s okay right now. Why?

Because as long as the market’s cooperating…we’re good.

But if the market blows up – we’re not good. 

So keep your fingers crossed. We are 12 years into the secular bear market and valuations have come down over those 12 years. And there is a thought process in my mind where if we can get passed these deficits and have some real serious people Washington do something about these their stupidity, that there’s another secular bull market around the corner.

These secular bear markets usually last about 13 to 16 years and we’re entering year 13 in the year 2013.

So we’re watching closely for that.

Why? Because everybody’s so depressed and they’re thinking a depression is coming. Everybody thinks we’re in a recession.

Harry Dent thinks we’re doing to 5,000 on the Dow and he’s been wrong 90% of the time also. Bill Gross, a bond guy says don’t be in equities ever.

That’s good. More and more people are selling mutual and getting the heck out of the market. That’s what happened in the late 1970s and then in 1982 we started an 18 year bull market like we’ve never seen.

So I’m counting and that we’re going to watch closely.  

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/23/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/082318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I’m not making this up.

Yesterday I was upset because based on Fed statements, supposedly everybody was in agreement that the Fed was going to print money again to hopefully lower interest rates in order to better the economy. The other thing that it has done is lift the markets. That’s all its done. Now you can say that’s good. But I worry about the longer term of the markets. How are they could roll all of this money back?

We woke up today and you have another Fed head and rolls back yesterday. A guy named Bullard says the opposite – that the minutes were stale and the economy has gotten better and we’re not sure we need to do anything.

So in just two days, we had people that are creating trillions of dollars out of thin air saying the opposite things and we’re supposed invest our dollars?

Bullard said the Fed has seen more encouraging data since the Fed meeting. He said the Fed is being intentionally vague on timing on possible stimulus. He said that if 2% growth resumes wit lower unemployment, likely the Fed will stay on hold. Not clear of the action is needed right now. The latest FOMC minutes are a bit stale.  And he’s the late-2013 camp for raising rates.

Now, what do you think the market’s going to do when you have these people that control the levers, even though, frankly, I wouldn’t let them drive my car or run my kids lemonade stand. But what do you think happens with all this uncertainty?

Oh yeah. The market dumps today. There was no big reason except – it’s called vertigo. Market vertigo.

And we get to deal with it.

Backing away from that…just a crummy day today.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ)

We saw Dell (DELL) get absolutely imploded. And today, Hewlett Packard did the same on their woeful numbers. Again, as investors, it is vital that we stay in tune with things right in front of us that we can see…and that is the PC business. No longer is it “a high priced, make money off of business type of thing.” It is a commodity, where prices keep coming every lower and, to boot, sales of them, are doing ever lower– as other instruments have come out to usurp the industry. Now mind you, there’s still a ton of them sold. But in the world of the stock market which pays up for growth, it pays down for decelerating growth. And that’s what you’re getting in these companies.

So I would continue to stay away from them. HPQ was whacked today 1.56 to 17.60 on $72 million shares…almost 4x average volume. And that ain’t Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling.

Sometimes you can see it. You know when I go to a Best Buy (BBY) and you see that the parking lot is 50% of what it was a year ago, it tells you something. Peter Lynch was right aboit some things. He once said, “See it, hear it, feet it, touch it, taste it…it works in the market. Not 100% of the time. But a good amount. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/22/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/082218.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

There’s a great hedge fund manager by the name of Louis Bacon that decided to return billions of dollars to clients because, as he said – I can’t compete with politicians and central banks constantly interfering with the markets.

Meaning, when markets want to go down, they just open up their mouth and markets stop going down.

And, of course vice versa.

And he basically went onto echo everything that I’ve been telling you.

Today we got the minutes from the Fed meeting.

There’s hardly a day that goes by where they don’t leave markets alone. And let me be clear about something. They know what the heck they’re doing. They’re idiots, but they’re not big idiots. Well…I take that back.

So in the past couple of weeks, the bond market has been getting hit. What happens when bond prices come down? Yields go up. So we watch the 10-year yield go from about 1.4 and change to about 1.8 in change, which is still ridiculously low!

Conveniently, out of the Fed, in those minutes, were the Fed Heads discussing that maybe, just maybe, it would be a good idea to have more printing of money to buy bonds, which would take down long-term interest rates. Here’s what the said:

“Many participants expected that such a program could provide additional support for the economic recovery both by putting downward pressure on long-term interest rates by contributing to easier financial conditions more broadly.”

Well here is my answer to that.

You’re insane. Yes, you’re taking interest rates down, but there are repercussions longer-term just like everything you have ever done. In the short-term, you’re screwing the savers.

On top of that, we have never ever experienced such monetary easing. We’re not in a depression. We’re not in a recession. We still have GDP growth, yet they’re acting like it’s back to 2008 again when everything was following off the cliff. And we already know a couple of outcomes of massive, ridiculous over-the-top easing by the Fed:

  1. Led to the Nasdaq Bubble
  2. Completely and directly led to the Housing Bubble. There is no way, shape or form that Housing could get to the prices it got to without the Fed.

So the question is: What is this one going to lead to?

Today though, they got interests rates down a little bit. They interfered with the market again. And I’m starting to question whether the Fed is long Bond Futures. I wonder.

Of course it hit the dollar. And, of course, it rallied Gold again. But as far as the market goes…well it was much worse during the day and came back some – but still finished in the red at least in one of the areas.

The good news? Some good action in some leading names today. Some good action in Housing stocks today. Some good earnings out of Toll Brothers.

And, of course, they refuse to let the market correct.

Markets need to be able to go on their own. They need to have ebb and flow, based on the fear and greed of the people that are investing in it. And the dollars they are investing in it. The Federal Reserve refuses to let that dynamic happen. And there’s an old line that “If you throw sand into the wind, it’s going to come back eventually in to your face. The problem is that they’re not playing with their own money. They’re playing with invented money. They wouldn’t be doing this if it was their own money ladies and gentlemen.

I’m so sick and tired of watching this Fed continuing to interfere with the real market. The one that moves up and down based on the fear and greed of investors…not them. It’s a never ending yap-fest into order to manipulate and move things.

I just wonder at what point in time does the market take out its sword and starting cutting them back. Because eventually that will happen.

As I have told you, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, Countrywide, Bear Stearns – they didn’t go out of business.  The markets put them out of business because ultimately the market is bigger and there’s only so many trillions you can invent to move those markets…at least I thought.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/21/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/082118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Today, the market broke above resistance and then turned right back down. The market’s okay. Probably a little overbought, and ahead of itself. Probably going to pull back some more. And we’ll see how it goes.

Remember that September is not usually a thrilling month, but I don’t think the technical condition is bad enough that the market just turns right back down. You have to see distribution.

Today was a distribution day in the market. Churning and then sell-down. But it’s only one day and wouldn’t go further than that.

Gold Revisited

Yesterday, I had said to you that:

 …If Gold (GLD) breaks below 148, it’s going to find some serious technical selling. But it’s now above it…a little bit of a stair step up. And a move above 158 would potentially be bullish, meaning, it’s in an area of resistance where it can go higher. But after that you have 159 and change and then the 162 levels.

And by happenstance, Gold gapped up today on the gap up in the Euro. So it was up about 1.60 to almost 159.

And man, I had people calling me in my office today on because I mentioned it yesterday. I don’t know if I explained well to you except to tell you:

Okay technically, you’re holding the 50-day moving average that has kinda sorta stopped going down.

You’ve pulled into it twice and it held.

And now at today’s close, you’ve broken above, by a smidge, the first area of resistance.

I don’t know how much conviction I have on it though.

I’m just letting you know.

I’m not saying that it doesn’t just keep on running from here.

I’m just not sure of this.

But technically, it is definitive bullish move in Gold.

Something like Royal Gold (RLGD), which is the strongest Gold stock actually looks pretty decent with the potential to break out. As for the rest of the Gold stocks, I just noticed that Newmont Mining (NEM) was up nicely and they just sold it off. I saw in Goldcorp (GG) and some of the others so I’m unclear on all of that.

Now Silver, which moved above a little resistance yesterday, also gapped up a little bit today. That’s above first resistance off the lows…and well see.

Just1 remember, when you’re in a bear market and you’re trying to turn things around, it’s not an event. It is a process over time.

Now some of the people that called me today asked, “Is this it?”

And I tried to play the sarcasm game and I said, “Yeah, this is it.”

But it just doesn’t work that way. You see it move above a certain area. You place your bets. You put on your stop. And you’re done if it doesn’t work.

If it keeps going up and builds stair steps up – potentially add.

But that’s as far as I can go.

You can tell I’m kinda sorta nonplussed on it now.

But I’m all for it, if Gold just wants to ramp up out of here.

I’m just not sure just yet.

My conviction is on the low side.

We’ll see how it plays out. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/16/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/081618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I really liked the action today in the markets. Whether or not it continues beats the heck out of me. But we can only hope that good continues.

In the past seven days, the market looked like they were sitting, doing nothing. Today, it looked like the same thing. An economic report came out that didn’t look very good.

But then they started talking again in Europe. And then the Euro rallied. And everything Euro based (anti-Dollar based) rallied also…names like IBM, 3M and the like – they’re dollar based. They started rally and, of course, the commodities rallied.

There are some definable things happening right now. Let’s hope it lasts.

Here’s the good news.

  1. The Euro is still rallying. That means the dollar is going south. So the dollar plays continue to work. That means that one of the best beneficiaries of a strong dollar is IBM. Go look at their financials. When the dollar weakens, they do better. Sales go up. Earnings go up. Same for other multi-nationals like the 3Ms and the like. Also, when the dollar is weak, commodities go up. We are seeing that right now.
  2. The past 8 days, the market stayed in contracted volatility. And I said to you that the next move will win — in the short run.
    • Just by way of example, the S&P edged above this little range that it has been in.
    • The Nasdaq-100 edged above the little range it has been in.
    • Dow the little range it has been in.
    • The weaker Russell 2000 did not break above early July’s highs, but it broke above the past 7 or 8 days…and that’s a start.
    • The Small Cap 600 broke above.
    • The Mid Cap 400 edged above.

…catching the drift?

IF THIS MOVE HOLDS, it gives the market impetus to higher from here. It’s simplistic as that.

Often breakouts fail. But we deal with as it they come.

The old high on the S&P was 1422. We’ll see what happens up there.

The old high on the Dow was 13338. Getting close.

The Nasdaq’s old high was 3134. Getting there.

The Russell 2000’s old high…got some work to do.

So I just wanted to make note that we’ve edged out of some ranges here. On top of that, the Financials (see the XLF and IYF), both edged out today just by a smidge.

But other things moved out. The XHB, The Standard & Poors Homebuilders Index moved out into new high ground.

If this moves stick…good.  But there is no rule of thumb that says it will hold.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

08/15/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/081518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I’m letting you know that this second, a few of the leading growth names that I have been watching for myself, my money, as well as yours – are in setup mode here. Meaning they have some darn good patterns.

Now let’s hope they bust out of here.

Volume, however, continues to be on the lighter side. At least it feels very light, especially on the NYSE which is an absolute joke, as far as volume is concerned.

The potentially good news is that the past seven days, the market has sat tight as can be as far as the indices are concerned.

Next day wins.

What do I mean by that? If it’s up nicely, we’ll get a move out of this range and attempt to get to the highs of the year. If we move down out of the range, we’ll have a little correction, of unknown price and time.

It’s pretty simple. Sometimes it gets to be that simple.

Thinks have quieted down on Wall Street. There’s still some economic numbers coming out, mostly not that great. There were some poor economic numbers coming out of Europe. I do know the retail numbers were better than expected. But that’s a fleeting number.

So we watch the tape. So as I’ve said to you, the good news is that there’s some names setting up. We’ll keep our fingers crossed that they all decide to bust out together, because if that occurs, we must definitely have another leg up on the market, of unknown time, price, and consequence.

The tape remains split around 50/50. About 50% of what I’m seeing that is in bad shape or in downtrend with things we don’t look at. Gun stocks look like they topped out and topped out badly.

We’ll take it one day at a time. As I’ve said to you, they’ not going to make it easy. It’s very important now to not let the news influence your decisions as markets will move up on what’s supposed to be bad news. Just like they will move down on what’s supposed to be good news.

I must tell you: Most of everything I read has the edge of bad news.

The economy.

Taxes.

The fiscal cliff.

Socialism.

Europe.

Afghanistan and Iraq imploding.

Iran trying to get Israel off the face of the Earth.

I can pretty much go on and on with these things I read on a daily basis. You have to be careful about all of this.

When the markets lifted off in 1982 into another glorious bull market, EVERY BIT OF NEWS WAS NEGATIVE.

So watch the market.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

 

08/13/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/081318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

We’re about 90 days from the election and I must address the latest news. As you know Mitt Romney has chosen my favorite person in Washington when it comes to you and your money, to be his Vice President.

As you know, I never used to talk politics on this show. Never.

I hardly talked about the Fed.

I never talked about Wall Street. In fact, I defended Wall Street, saying they’re not crooks.

I would like to say, slowly but surely, we got more interference, more corruption and more criminal activity – but it actually came pretty quickly. And we had to start talking about what was going on in Washington DC.

Back in the year 2000, in Bill Clinton’s last budget, the U.S. spent $1.8 trillion. And mind you, debt was piling on to the tune of trillions over a good period of time.

During Bill Clinton’s tenure, he got together with Republicans and they basically balanced the budget, which means spend what you take in.

What a freak’in concept! Balance your budget. And throughout history, we have heard Democrats and Republicans both say, “We need to balance the budget.”

So we walked into the George Bush era. I remember the economy went into a little recession, (nothing bad) when he took over. And we started a secular Bear Market because we had a big, gigantic bubble at the end of 1999.

Then 9-11 hit. And the economy went south. The airlines and the travel industry got hit. I remember going to Las Vegas just two weeks later and there was hardly anyone there. And George Bush lowered taxes and gave out some checks. I remember everybody got $300 or something like that.

And all we heard after that was: “George Bush is doing to destroy the country. Tax cuts to the wealthy. It’s terrible.”

People like Paul Krugman wanted to hang him.

And the deficits at that time on an annual basis were $200 to $300 billion.

But something funny happened. We were running the deficits, but income into the Treasury spiked higher in the mid-2000s. So what happened? They kept spending. The Republicans kept spending. And the war, which they left off budget, had to be put back on.

George Bush went his 8 years and after inheriting big debt (not deficits) on a yearly basis, he ran it up over $4 trillion over eight years. These are not exact numbers, but they’re close.

Which takes us to Barack Obama. During Barack Obama’s campaign he said he would not treat taxpayer dollars like Monopoly Money. He said he would go line by line through the budget and weed out the waste. It’s all on YouTube.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIPJCrSS7j0

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZY4D-Yy97gg

And then he announces a stimulus of $800 billion. We were told that a ton of it’s going into infrastructure. We need to fix our highways and bridges.

We were told that. We were told that they they’d be careful with every dime. Efficient and effective.

And then something happened. George Bush’s last spending year was about $2.7 trillion…somewhere in there. Of course we had a TARP which was $800 billion. A “onetime” TARP.

Obama comes in and raises spending from about $2.7 trillion to $3.7 trillion straight up, without any increase in money taken by the government. That meant that every dime of increased spending, was deficit spending. People would have to loan that money to us and we’d have to pay it back.

In other words…a tax. Because who pays it back? You and I and the business world. It’s a tax on corporations and individuals. It’s a tax. A deficit is a tax.

In only 3 1/2 years, Barrack Obama has brought on more debt than George Bush in his whole eight years.

But we are told that it is not his fault. That the debt ballooned on George Bush’s watch even though anybody can go to the web and see, it’s all in plain sight.

And then we get a healthcare bill that was sold to us on the premise that it will only cost us over a 10-year period, $800 billion. But we’ll get it back in savings.

But now that number’s $1.7 trillion!

Now they use the word “cost.”

No. It’s a tax. A cost to government is a tax to you and me. So as of this second, this country is running on a yearly basis anywhere basis anywhere from a $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion (not including the new health care bill) that comes out of you and me.

A tax. To where we’re now $16 trillion in debt.

Paul Ryan

So I find a gentleman by the name of Paul Ryan that I had no idea about a couple years ago.

And I listened to him and I watched him. And he said we have to cut the spending and the deficits.

Or else.

And frankly, he was just repeating what so many other politicians have been yelling about for 15 years. They can talk until they’re blue in face because in the past 10 seconds our debt just went up $400,000. For the next 10 years, if there’s nothing done we will run $1 to $2 trillion deficits as far as the eye can see. And that’s tax increases on you and me and that comes out of the economy.

That’s all I care about.

So you have one man with the grapefruits to actually come out and say we’ve got to cut spending and get deficits under control. That’s all he’s saying!

He’s saying, “Barack Obama, you took spending from $2.7 trillion to $3.7 trillion overnight. What’s changed from four years ago that we can’t go back to $2.7 trillion? Let’s cut it half!”

Are they replying: “I’m glad you care about fiscal health and well-being of this country… let’s sit down and look at this?”

No! They call him a racist, an extremist, a radical who doesn’t care about the elderly.  You want to talk food off the table of children. You hope the elderly die so that we don’t have to pay for their healthcare. You hate Hispanics.

Ladies and gentlemen, let me tell you want is extreme. It’s spending $1.3 trillion a year that you’re not taking in! And then lying about! And then blaming it on others!

You’ve had two years of unfettered power and another year a half to do something about it…and now you don’t even pretend to care about it.

There’s no talk about fixing deficits from this administration. The only talk from this administration is how do we raise taxes to pay for this sham of spending that was supposed to go to our roads and bridges and never did.

Where is that trillion dollars a year going? Where is the list?

I’d like to know. But no. It’s bad to try and fix the deficits.

GOD FOBID WE CAN’T DO THAT!

Ladies and gentlemen, they’re taunting the markets. They’re taunting you. They’re screwing you. The have raided the Treasury for the next six years and they have no plans for changing it. And I don’t know what works and what doesn’t. What I do know is that if you take in $2.5 trillion, you can’t spend $3.8 trillion.

Yet that’s what they’re doing. But they ain’t talking about it.

But those that do and who want to cut that down to size are called extremists and radicals. There’s only one group that’s extremist and radical. It’s the group that’s spending $1.3 trillion that they don’t have.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

 

08/03/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/080318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Another wicked week on the market.

The big news today was that there was an employment number.

We’ve got to separate reality here at Investors Edge. We’ve got to deal with reality because what you’re reading and what you’re hearing is a lot of B.S.

Seriously.

Some of the headlines I have heard recently and some of the things I’ve seen on the tube recently – I think that just make it up as they go along. Today, I watched somebody say that the market was up big today because of the employment number.

What? Huh?

Ladies and gentlemen, before you start listening to people who just make it up as they go along, what you need to know was that the futures market, before even 8:30am when the employment number came out, was up a good 125 to 150. So it was already up big because the Euro was soaring after some of the things that were announced yesterday got flip-flopped today…and that’s it.

Because I got news for you…the employment number stunk. It’s fake. It’s made up. Supposedly 160,000 jobs were created, but unemployment rate goes up. Ladies and gentlemen, get with it. They’re full of it.

For the past four years, they have been taking millions of people off the supposed list of people looking for jobs. As you take those people off, the unemployment rate goes down without anything happening. Every month I email the Labor Department and ask them to send me the list of people that have left the workforce. I’ve get to get an answer because there isn’t any list.

They make it up!

Anyway…the market today was up simply because yesterday, the President of the European Central bank who all but promised last week to make some moves this week to do what the Fed has done. I completely disagree with that because it’s conjuring up money to buy bonds in order to lower interest rates…whatever.

Well, yesterday he said there’s fierce German opposition, so the market tanked yesterday.

Before the market opened today, guess what?

It was announced that a lot people in Angela Merkel’s (Chancellor of Germany) circle believe that it is sound policy and that they are going to go along with it. And boom, the futures shot up. That’s what happened. The Euro was really strong. The Dollar sunk big time. When that occurs, there are certain areas of the market that roll.

For months I’ve told you to stay away from commodities and the reason why was that the Euro kept dropping and the Dollar kept soaring. On top of that, I told you to be careful of any Dollar plays. Strong Dollars hurt our multinationals here. And I used the poster child of IBM.

IBM was sinking as the Dollar was rising.

IBM is now rallying as the Dollar is weakening.

That is why you’re seeing the market doing a little bit better.  And as I’ve told in you recent days, the oils have a bid and some of the other commodities have a little bit of a better bid. Oils are the best commodity, but even the lowly steels were coming off the lows.

And the Semis have done the same.

So when the worst areas come off the lows, the market comes off the lows.

That’s all. The market had nothing to do with the unemployment figures today. Do not listen to these people.

The Market

It’s going to continue to be not easy. You’re getting gaps to the upside and gaps to the downside. When we gap up, three days later we give it all back. You gap down and three days later, you’re back up.

Even with 217 points today, the market finished basically flat this week.

The short sellers got emboldened yesterday. The woke this morning vomiting.

And that’s how the market goes right now.

Just keep in mind, they’re not going to make it easy.

But right now, all the worst areas have come up off their lows. That’s all the Commodities, Semiconductors, the Commodity countries, the Oils…all these worst areas have come up—helping the market. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

08/02/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/080218.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Last week the market was breaking down. The Fed planted a story about the things they’re going to do going forward.

And then the Fed did nothing.

The European Central Bank (ECB) came out with “shock and awe” in fixing Europe. And they said they’d be buying up bonds to keep interest rates down. And the market gaps up 250 and goes up another 200 on those words.

In the past, I would tell you that nobody’s words could really move the markets.

I can’t tell you that anymore. So the market goes up that much and now it’s kinda coming down that much.

Why?

The same person who yapped last week about everything’s that going to get done, did absolutely nothing today.

The amazing part of the equation is that the same people read newspapers.

He knows the markets are waiting.

And he never even was in the game.

So the Russell 2000 has given back that whole move of last week.

The Midcap 400, just about all of that move.

Some of the other markets up a little bit.

But I gotta tell you…it’s just a pain in the rear.

Why?

Because I’m a big believer that markets need to move on their own. And right now they are not.

There’s not a day that goes by where somebody’s not yapping. And I don’t know how we got to the point where the market cares so much about it. But it is what it is. And I think all these people know it and still keep doing what they’re doing.

For the president of the European Central Bank to come out and talk about how “We are going to do everything in our power,” knowing that market is waiting on him today – and then he does absolutely nothing – it’s sickening.

Of course, the market was down pretty decently today, though it did come back towards the end of the day…somewhat.

So all I can do is keep telling you where I think leadership is, what areas you should stay away from, and what I’m doing.

I’m not committing a lot of funds. Why would I? And I’m using close stops and the 50-day/10-week moving average most of the time. I will commit a ton of funds when we get a big gigantic fat pitch.

And all we have been getting is whip-saw city based on a bunch of nonsense. The economy and the markets would be so much better without these central banks.

How can that be?

Because markets would fix themselves over time

That’s what is known as supply and demand. The free market. What a concept.

And if something has to drop or something has to go bankrupt, so be it. Somebody else will take the place.

You remember all those banks and brokerages going out of business.

The end of the world coming?

No!

They’re gone and others flourished because of their stupidity.

That’s how it works. In the world of supply and demand, companies that took their eye off the ball like Research in Motion and Nokia, have their stock prices drown.

While companies who took advantage of the marketplace like Apple do well.

Supply and demand…what a concept.

Hopefully, we get back to that point in the markets because I gotta tell you, volume and interest continues to drip away. But I’m never going to lose interest. Because once we get down to those valuations, and past this cycle, we’re going to have another monster 15 year market.

So stay in gear. I’ll keep whining and complaining. Maybe somebody in power will listen.

There will be great companies, great stocks, great markets and sectors – the future. We just don’t know when. But we will see their characteristics when they show up. So when everybody else gets discouraged, start chomping at the bit.

1982 to 2000 was good.

And we’ll get that again.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

08/01/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/073118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

They’re Working on the Market

Everybody waited with bated breath about what the Fed was going to do. And they basically said that economic growth has slowed down. We had no idea. And they said blah, blah, blah and this, that and the other thing.

And they said they would look at things and then act accordingly.

And what do they mean by “act accordingly” ladies and gentlemen?

Answer: They print money to buy bonds in order keep bringing interest rates down. They say that they’re trying to help the economy. But I know better. They’re working on the market.

They know they can’t help the economy. They’re already at zero percent interest rates. Listen to this. The yield on the 10-year is 1.53. That is tied to a lot of loans, specifically in mortgages. That means that mortgage rates have come down markedly. Loan rates have come down markedly. And it still hasn’t worked.

So they’re working on the market. And in an accident of truth, Bernanke in the past had mentioned that if we get the market up, we’ll get people feeling wealthy – and they may spend.

So that’s the story. You can go read what the Fed said.

I must tell you that I don’t watch financial television because I don’t want to hear other peoples’ opinions. But I turned it on and you know what they were talking about? The Fed’s language.

Ooh…they said “this” instead of “the.”

The said “it’s” instead of “it is.”

Must mean something.

I have not seen more juvenile, more imbecilic thought processes in my life.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Fed is printing money. Has been printing money. And will continue to print money, regardless of what they tell you. Ad infinitum. Or until the market stops them. That’s it. Don’t believe anything else. Right now, they’re in this “Operation Twist.” And I’m not even going to get into what it is.

The market really didn’t react that much. That makes me happy.

I hear that tomorrow, there is some kind of meeting or announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB) at 8:30 am. So we’ll get an idea from that.

And then, of course, on Friday is the Fake Jobs Number. To be blunt, they will fake the number as much as they can into the election – if they can.

ADP numbers yesterday were better than expected so maybe the number will be better. I heard that expectation was on the measly creation of 80,000 jobs. Just remember what I think: It’s all a bunch of B.S.

As I’ve told you on my radio show, they have taken millions of people, in the past few years, out of the workforce, which makes the unemployment rate come down. If you add them back in, it would be much higher. And, of course, I have asked, “Give me the list of people.”

There’s no list. They make it up. I’m not kidding you. They make these all-important numbers up.

The Market…Playing It Close to the Vest

Frankly, there really wasn’t a lot of range in the market today. The big loser of the day were the Transports which were down 101. That has to be watched closely. Conway (CNW) was the culprit, down 5 or 6 and change. If you look at the Transports, you will see that it’s been range bound for the better part of 9 or 10 months. The upper range happened from January into May. The lower range from May into July. And now we’re back into that lower range again…and you do not want to see the Transports break down ladies and gentlemen. That would not be good news at all.

The SOX was flat.

Oils stocks had some strength today.

After that…a lot of red. Housing…red. Gold…red. A bunch of growth stocks…red.

And a lot of other things…mixed.

They ain’t going to be easy. I’m playing it close to the vest.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.