JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…
5 days left of trading in the year.
I listen back through my radio shows and, man, do I sound like a cynic these days. But I have to tell you that the cynicism has been earned by the people that should be blasted.
I’ve told you that, the last 10 out of 10 years, the market has been up from Veterans Day until the end of the year…as well as 22 out of the past 24 years.
And how is that possible?
All these “Big Boys” whether they’re hedge funds, mutual funds, investment funds…whatever they are – they get paid their fees at the end of the month, at the end of the year and, many by the quarter.
So they paint the tape into the end of those times. And that is not an opinion.
GO BACK AND LOOK. I DON’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP.
Since Veteran’s Day the market been down, but I kept telling you the market looks horrible, there’s no leadership… but it ain’t the end of the year yet.
And we walked into this week, when they were really starting to break some things down. The Financials were getting busted. BankAmerica was under 5 and as I told you, that’s important because by their charter or laws or whatever they use as their terminology, the Big Boys wouldn’t be able to own BankAmerica, which means they’d have to sell it.
And Tuesday we gapped up. Out of nowhere. No news.
And then yesterday, I didn’t predict. I gave you facts. I told you that if the market was going to higher into the end of the year, they will do it with the Financials. Why? Because, they’re a huge part of the S&P. And if they get the Financials moving, that’ll put some confidence into other areas…namely the Semis.
The Financials were very strong today. The Semis were very strong today. Happenstance? Accident on purpose? I’LL LET YOU DECIDE. All I know are the facts.
Get this…the excuse for the Semis having a strong day…Micron (MU) missed estimates, both revenues and earnings…warned going forward…and they reported an ungodly loss. Stock was up 14% today. The SOX was up by about 3 1/2%
Agenda? I’LL LET YOU DECIDE.
I just hearken by to ’07, where at the end of the year they popped things up and as we came into January ’08, the bear resumed.
I’m not saying the same thing is going to happen. I’m saying, as a cynic, that if they are painting the tape, they’re doing it in exactly as I thought and as I told you.
Not to mention, I noticed something else today. The oils are weak, except for Chevron and Exxon. They’ve popped up this week. Oh yeah, Chevron and Exxon are on the Dow. Between those two stocks: Total 12 points, which is equivalent to about 112 Dow points, this week.
Just trying to be a little CSI for you. Because while they’re doing this, there’s still very little leadership. There’s no growth leadership. And whenever the market rallies, it is the worst areas getting the bid, because the Financials and Semiconductors that have been the worst areas.
I’m going to be watching closely as we enter the new year. Maybe they’re bottoming. The cynic in my says no. We’ll let the market decide.
SPECIAL NOTE: Be sure to register now for my next live Webinar on Saturday January 21, 2012. I will talk about the important implications of early-January’s market action…and much more.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.