The news overnight IS THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE OF MOST OF THE NEWS REPORTED YESTERDAY. This moves markets. Yesterday:
“U.S. official says satellite images show Russia troops leaving assembly points and moving to attack positions!”
“President Zelensky says Ukraine “has been informed” that Wednesday, February 16 “will be the day of the attack”
“World markets see relief rally after Russian forces ease back some troops from Ukraine border!”
But this morning:
“Reports the troops that Russia is removing from the Ukraine border is only a “small draw down” and over 100,000 troops are still at border and conducting large military drills; US is taking suggestions of diplomatic path and possible de-escalation with a “grain of salt”
Before one gets all excited, this gap to the upside will not take indices out of a bearish phase but will maintain the “higher low.” Before one gets excited, this gap to the upside will only get back a decent amount of what was lost on Friday. Before one gets excited, do not forget we are dealing with a guy named Putin. Before one gets excited, before this latest with Russia/Ukraine, the market was dealing with an inept central bank that may no longer be able to dictate to markets with gargantuan amounts of printed money and 0% rates. Keep in mind, amazingly, they are still printing and still keeping rates at 0% while consumers continue to be crushed.
We will be thrilled if Russia backs down. We will be thrilled if another guess the gap day sticks to the upside. This would not necessarily change the playing field but all strong up days are good days. It was just tough enough to wind our way through the Jay Powell news of the day. It just makes it tougher we now await a final decision from that guy named Putin.