THE OPEN

Last night, futures were down.

Yesterday, it was negative talk on trade…which hit markets. Today…the WH leaks out the trade deal is going well. Futures gap up.

There is no template for this nonsense except to take a step back for the second. We don’t think it is hyperbole to say the stance has changed several hundred times.  A lot of stocks showed near-term topping yesterday but that can change on the open as the news is ridiculously fluid. We will hold our tongue on opinion of all this and just stick to watching price.

More to come.

PRE MARKET NONSENSE

We have been in the camp that sentiment had suggested a pullback/corrective work could be at hand. In recent days, markets have weakened a wee bit. But it now gets helped along.

We pull no punches when taking on DC and their nightmarish debt/deficits/spending. We have very little sympathy for most politicians. But when it comes to the presidency, we try to take a different tone out of respect for the office. We will try again this morning.

For about 18 months, we have heard that a trade deal was done, not done, done, not done, close, not close, getting closer, not so close, they need to do a deal, no…they really need to do a deal, they are weak and we are strong. We can go on and on. Recently, we have been hearing nothing but a phase 1 trade deal is at hand. Every day, we have been hearing closer and closer. Every day it was just about any day. Markets reacted to the positive. Business reacted to the positive.

And now, the president this morning:

“I have no deadline, no. In some ways, I think I think it’s better to wait until after the election with China,”  “In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now, and we’ll see whether or not the deal’s going to be right; it’s got to be right.”

We went from a deal is right around the corner. We went from the White House saying just yesterday morning that the phase 1 deal was being written up to:

“I have no deadline, no. In some ways, I think I think it’s better to wait until after the election with China,”  “In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now, and we’ll see whether or not the deal’s going to be right; it’s got to be right.”

We have been doing this dance for 18 months. The Trump side says this is just how he negotiates. The other side remains worried. China has now barred U.S. military ships and aircraft from Hong Kong in response to U.S. support for the pro-democracy protesters. China now announces they have been preparing for the worst case scenario so if there is no deal…there is no deal.

This is not just about China. New tariffs have been placed on Brazil and Argentina. New tariffs are lurking for France. The whole EU worries about auto tariffs.

We are not taking sides. We are just reporting the news. The fact is France wants to tax U.S. tech companies. The fact is China has been a bad player. But the fact is it again feels like we are back at square 1. Of course, that’s until the next tweet or the next words out of the White House.

PRE MARKET

The week after Thanksgiving is usually not the greatest.

We thought some things were petering out last week so would not be surprised by pullbacks. The SOFTWARE names that have been rallying up quite overbought and could pull back. Watching them SEMIS closely here as a few names that were leading…not leading any more…KLAC is one that comes to mind.

GOLD and GOLD STOCKS should be watched. Support continues to hold but upside has been contained. The GDXJ is back above the 50 day…with the GDX still below.

FINANCIALS continue to get good money flows as pullbacks have been nominal.