Futures are down but way off lows.
TXN will be no help. TER will be help. The market had better not lose the SEMIS because growth worsened even more yesterday. Growth is in a bear market. Value continues to get the money flows.
Noticing CAT terrible numbers but actually up after initially being down 7%. Noticing BA up on bad numbers but it just dropped $40 on news.
Lots more earnings. Big 4 indices while a little wobbly, still holding in range near the old highs.
Just a very different market as leadership has flipped.
Futures flattish except for BIIB up $82 on drug news. Speaking of that: ‘Gary…was there any way of knowing if BIIB would be up $82 this morning and make money off of it?” Answer: Not without going to jail.
Internals are improving. All the comatose areas are improving. All the areas that lagged for months are improving. DO NOT FORGET. JAY POWELL IS NOW IN FULL QE…”JUST DON’T CALL IT QE!” We are actually surprised the big 4 have not broken out yet based on this but today is another day. DO NOT FORGET! For almost 11 years, markets have loved easier money. DO NOT FORGET.
Market was cracking into the end of December. Christmas eve day…Mnuchin makes call to Powell and the “President’s working group on markets” On Christmas eve, Powell floats a change of stance leaking he can go from “raising rates a few more times in 2019” to “patience!” Market immediately bottoms. Markets rally into end of April.
Markets drop 6-10% in May. Powell leaks another change of stance from “patience” to “lowering of rates!” Markets immediately bottom.
Markets rally for a few weeks. Markets then have a small top. Powell leaks “more rate cuts are “desirable!” Markets bottom.
Fast forward to the past couple of weeks. Major indices are where they were 18 months to 30 months ago. How to get them moving again? “QE BUT DON’T CALL IT QE!”
So we are on the balls of our feet. Not because earnings will be down year over year. Not because of the nightmare in DC. Not because of guidance but because of AGAIN…easier money by the continued bubble making machine. We now watch the see if the big 4 can indeed break out.
Friday was the best 250 down day in the DOW we have seen,. BA and JNJ were the culprits but A/D not so bad…but growth continues to melt down.
A couple things we are watching.
The DOLLAR may be topped for now. If it is, expect COMMODITIES and MULTINATIONALS to do better.
BONDS may be topped for now. If they are, expect FINANCIALS to do better.
Also…VALUE remains the relative strength here. Growth croaked again last last week as value holds up well. Growth vs value has had its way for a long time. Things may have changed.
The big 4 remain a stone’s throw away from highs though internals not so much.
AND it remains earnings season. A zillion names this week.
After a growth slaughter yesterday in SOFTWARE/CLOUD names, major indices act fine but continued range-bound here. It’s earnings season.
NFLX up nicely recovered a bunch of recent losses.
But IBM and UNP no help. IBM numbers terrible.
Futures up as NFLX helps…AMZN up in sympathy? That’s what someone said.
Also, after 3+ years, we may have a Brexit. Yipppeeee!