QUESTIONS NOT ASKED AT LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE BUT WE WOULD HAVE ASKED!

Questions that were not asked last night. As always, these questions contain lots of facts. (What a concept!)

Every one of you sounds like this country is going to hell in a hand basket. But unemployment is 3.5%. The U.S. is experiencing historic lows for Hispanics, blacks, women and the young ones. Why would you want to change economic policy when the job’s picture is still bright? And yes, we know that could change.
Senator Sanders: You have been in DC for 28 years. During that time, the debt of this country has gone from basically $0 to $22.5 trillion dollars. What is your culpability in all this? In fact, to all that have been in DC for many years, what is your culpability?
Senator Warren: Specifically, in dollars, how much do you want to take away from each wealth group to fund your medicare for all? Senator Warren…that’s not an answer. Let’s try again. Specifically, how much will each group up the ladder have to shoulder to pay for your medicare for all plan?
Senator Sanders: Your wealth confiscation wants to confiscate 8% per year on the super wealthy’s assets that have already been taxed…and in the past you have called for a 100% tax on any earnings above $1 million. First off, specifically, what will be your highest federal tax rate? As far as your wealth confiscation, in 12 1/2 years, you would have taken every dime these people did not earn but saved after taxes. Why do you think these people will stay in this country and keep their capital here? Do you realize every one of these people are meeting with their high priced lawyers and accountants right now preparing to get the heck out of Dodge if your poll numbers start to move up again?  Do you realize if there are no billionaires, there will be no taxes for you to collect from your so-called super wealthy?
Senator Warren…same question though your wealth tax is less than Sen Sanders but you are also calling for more wealth confiscation via your 14.8% social security tax and your 14.8% investment income tax on people making $250,000/year?
To anyone wanting medicare for all: Since we know every major program government has ever come out with was way over budget with some doubling original estimates, how are you certain that you’re $32 trillion for Medicare for all is not 64 trillion?
To anyone wanting medicare for all:  Look into the camera and tell the 150 million or so AMERICANS you are going to take away their choice on their health coverage. Excuse me…the camera is this way.
To anyone wanting medicare for all:  The NHS in the United Kingdom says they have major wait times, major shortages and major lines. That’s for doctors, nurses, emergency rooms, surgeries and everything else under the sun yet you all want a system that mimics it. How are you so sure that Americans won’t go through the same thing? After all, when there are no premiums, no co-pays and no deductibles, economics 101 says those products and services will be overused. Have you seen what happens at 7-11s when they give out free Slurpees?
Every day $3 billion is added to the public’s debt. Every day $1.5 billion of our tax dollars goes towards interest on that debt that has been created by many of you throughout the years. What are you gonna do about the debt?
Government spending has gone from $1.8 trillion in the year 2000 to nearing $5 trillion in the next year? Can you tell us where all this money is going to and why should we believe it’s being deployed efficiently and effectively? Based on these numbers, why should anyone give you more of their money?
Senator Sanders: You say your GREEN NEW DEAL will create 20 million jobs. Can you tell us exactly in what industries and if there is no demand for these jobs, who is going to pay these people?
To those that want to get rid of fossil fuels: How will anyone get to point A to point B? And if you try to slash the amount of flying, won’t that kill the economy?
To all proposing massive tax increases: What do you tell every American that wants to move up rungs of the ladder that every time they do move up, you are there to take more and more of their earnings? And if as they move up, you are taking more and more, how is anyone going to become wealthy? And if no one becomes wealthy, who are you left to tax? And if you have no wealthy left to tax, who will you go after next?
Senator Warren: Can you name an industry you have NOT proposed to take over, shut down or break up?
Senator Sanders: You keep yelling and screaming about climate change but we continue to see you flying private jets. What’s up with that?
Senator Sanders: You say your type of socialism is not Venezuela’s type of socialism. But if you google all of Chavez’ and Maduro’s policies, they mimic all of your proposals. Do you want to change your stance?
Mr. Steyer: Did you actually just tell America that billionaires are not a good thing? If that is true, are you willing to cut a check to the government right now to take your net worth $1 under $1 billion?
To all: Please tell us your highest tax rate and at what level of earnings. Please tell us every tax you would propose and at what level. BE SPECIFIC! (We suspect a slew of Ralph Kramdems would show up with “huminah huminah huminah.)
To all our peeps…these are simple questions. Notice we pick on the extremists more than others but all are in the soup. Notice we left out those that are polling less than root canal but acknowledge other proposals like just give out free money. Sure…dis-incentivize work. That will help.
These are specific questions that (my goodness) actually delve deep into economic policy that WE BELIEVE doesn’t just  border on the nonsensical but quite economically insane. Yes…some are more moderate than others but all think the wealthy, the successful, the producers are all a bunch of corrupt sleazebags that only care about their own lives. CNN had 3 hours, 3 hours of an opportunity to really dig deep into people that are vying for the leader of the free world position. But instead, we got the same old, same old.
And one last question to Anderson Cooper. With only 3 hours less commercials, you spent 20 minutes on impeachment on  the same day Nancy Pelosi says she will not take a vote on impeachment. Do you feel like you wasted a precious 20 minutes?

PRE MARKET/THE OPEN

Something about China/Hong Kong and a house resolution hit futures but not that bad.

BUT as we write this:

WDAY down $17…COUP down $10…ADBE down $9…NOW down $20…MDB down $6… INTU down $5…CRM down $4…VEEV down $5…not sure blow-ups on some downgrades and WDAY just saying expenses may go up a little bit is a good thing for this group. Keep in mind, this group has been struggling for a few months now.

Also…leading SEMICONDUCTOR name down $9 on their earnings.

But FINANCIALS acting better off of earnings. Major indices (the big 4) continue to act better.

 

 

PRE MARKET

Quiet day yesterday but do not forget, Powell now performing QE at $60 billion/month. Markets have loved this for 10 years so we are on the balls of our feet.

BUT…we are now in earnings season. Pay attention to the reactions, less the words. Estimates are for earnings to be down year over year so some are negative. Remember, markets look forward.

 

QE BUT DON’T CALL IT QE

—Despite major indices still range-bound…despite the internals nowhere near the strength of the big 4 indices…despite the clear lack of leadership…despite the clear lack of new yearly highs….”QE BUT DON’T CALL IT QE” is here.  We are calling it “QE BUT DON’T CALL IT QE” because that is what Jay Powell told us. “DO NOT CALL IT QE!” Jay Powell is the latest from DC to think we are stupid.—-

—-But we know better. The old line “if it looks like a duck” comes into play here. In case you did not know, Powell has announced the buying of a measly $60 billion/month for the next few months of  treasury bills. This on top of the multiple rate cuts and daily repo operations. (look that up)—–

—-He’s not stupid. Remember what we have not just told you but showed you. Powell leaked a change of stance on Christmas eve as markets continued to swoon. He leaked going from “more rate hikes” to “patience” as he recognized the tightening was causing a collapse in the markets. Markets bottomed the next day.  Markets rallied into the end of April. But May saw a 6-10% drop depending on which index you follow. It was at that point Powell sent out his mouthpiece James Bullard to state he could see the fed going from “patience” to “lowering of rates!” Markets again bottomed immediately. Powell confirmed the leak just a few days later. Powell could not even stand a measly 6-10% drop.—-

—-But every attempted breakout has failed. Internals remain horrid. Foreign markets just aint happening. All this while negative rates pervade the world, while many developed countries continue to lower rates, while some countries with negative rates are even lowering more. So what to do? Play catch up. In other words…”QE BUT DON’T CALL IT QE!”—–

—-The bottom line is that markets have loved these moves for 10 years. Since last Christmas, every move up in the market was started by another round of easier money by a man who says he is not about easy money. It has been the market’s default setting. The fed goes easier…JUST BUY! Jay Powell sees that the DOW hasnt moved since January 2018. Jay Powell sees that the Russell 2000 is trading where it was 2 years ago so let’s just go “QE BUT DON’T CALL IT QE”—–

—–We are not on our toes because of a China trade deal that’s a 2-3 on a scale of 1-10. We are not on our toes because of stock buybacks. We are certainly not on our toes in an earning’s reporting period where earnings will be down.  (Of course, the number will be beaten!) We are on our toes because Jay Powell has gone full Bernanke…and markets have responded positively for 10 years. Let’s just say with this latest round of “QE BUT DON’T CALL IT QE” combined with upcoming seasonal strength, markets had better respond.—–

THE BIG OPEN

Markets up over 1% because the prez says deal talks going “very well!” But he has used those words 100 times in the past 18 months. The difference? Elections matter and we are getting closer.

But add in:

We are calling it “QE BUT DON’T CALL IT QE!” At least, that’s what the easy money, data dependent Powell is trying to con you with. To be clear, our Fed, with unemployment at 3.5%, is again buying up bonds with funny money. This has helped markets for 10 years, so why shouldn’t it help one more time? By the way, that is the definition of QE. Just remember what we have told you about the past year of easier money. Back last December, markets were being trashed. Mnuchin gets on a call with Powell and others. Christmas eve…yes, Christmas eve, they leaked out that the Fed would change their stance from “raising rates” to “patience!” Markets took the cue and bottomed the day after Christmas. A few days later, Powell confirmed the leak. The market rallied into the end of April. Uh oh., Markets then swooned a whopping 6-10%. Just 6-10% got the Fed on the move again. Powell sent his mouthpiece Bullard out to “leak” another change of stance from “patience” to “lowering of rates!” Markets bottomed immediately. Powell confirmed it later on with the a new round of rate cuts. So here we go again. Easier money is coming. This has been the steroids markets have loved. Do not forget, it is much easier around the globe with negative rates in many areas. Greece was even able to float bonds with negative rates. GREECE!
So a small deal combined with easier money. What else could markets ask for?
With this morning’s open, most major indices will be trading where they were last week, 2 weeks ago, a month ago, 2 months ago, 4 months ago, 6 months ago, a year ago. Areas like the Russell 2000 and the Transports would be trading where they were 2 years ago. So before you get all excited, just remember where the markets are and what they have been doing. But we have some good news. Throughout all this trade bluster, the big 4 indices, at their worst, went through a nasty correction int the 4th quarter of last year (more on that later) and are currently just a couple percent below their highs. On top of that, the all-important SEMICONDUCTORS continue to show amazing relative strength. But for the market to really get going, we are going to have to see the internals improve. We are all for it. But let’s see it happen.