OIL MOVES

SAUDI OIL ATTACKS…oil prices higher…oil stocks gap up…buy into gold and bonds…markets down but not by much.

The question is what next? The president used the language “locked and loaded!” Stay tuned. Markets have ripped the stuffings out of growth and into value. Not sure that lasts.

The good news is Saudi oil not as important as it was years ago but still important.

BLAME THE MODERATORS

Sorry…these presidential debates are supposed to pull the covers off of all the proposals coming from the presidential candidates. These debates are supposed to hold feet to the fire. These debates are not for a candidate to provide their talking points. Unfortunately, for the most part, these debates were just that.

We do have to hand it to Mr. Ramos for asking Biden about the Obama administration deporting 3 million people. We have to hand it to Linsey Davis for holding Kamala’s feet to the fire on her past as a prosecutor. But that’s all we got for you because the rest did not help.
Bernie Sanders was asked whether his brand of socialism is the same as Venezuela’s. Duh! What did you think he would say? But where was the next question? Where was the factual next question? “Senator Sanders, you say your socialism is different but your proposals are just about the exact same proposals as Hugo Chavez’ proposals. How do you square with that?” Nope! No follow up.
Did you hear any questions on debt and deficits? Nope. Did anyone even talk about jobs?
Did anyone ask about today’s economic numbers and that by just about every measure, unemployment for many areas of the economy are at their lowest ever? Nope! That would have not fit their template.
Was there a follow up to  “hell yes, we are going to take away your AR-15, your AK-47? ” We are not even in the business of moderating but how about the simple follow up: “Who is going to do the confiscating? Are you going to send in the military to go door by door or a bunch of police? Are you worried this could lead to violence?” Maybe we missed those questions.
How about all the talk about getting rid of fossil fuels? Where was this question: “If you are going to get rid of fossil fuels, what do we do about air travel?” Nope!
How about asking Bernie the simplest of questions? “You say your healthcare program will only cost $32 trillion over 10 years…please name one big government program that has come in on budget?” Didn’t get that one. How about this simple question? “If there are no deductibles, no co-pay and no premiums, what is to keep people from visiting their doctors or emergency rooms or clinics as many times as possible with little cuts, with headaches or for things they may now need attention to?” Didn’t see that one. Did not see “Have you seen the numbers on wait times and shortages in the UK with their NHS program? Nope…didn’t get that one.
How about this list?
Wealth confiscation
Leave the country wealth confiscation if you want to get out of Dodge tax
War tax
Gas tax
Financial transaction tax
VAT tax
Higher payroll tax
Higher Corporate tax
Higher estate tax
Higher income tax…including some proposals as high as 70%
Higher middle income tax
Carbon tax
$1,000/month giveaway tax
Investment income tax
These are the taxes proposed at one time by any of these candidates. We left out the NYC Mayor’s “tax the hell out of the wealthy tax” because root canal polls better than him.  But where was good old George Steph asking about all these taxes and whether any of these would hamstring the great unemployment numbers? Nope…not a damn word.
Where were the questions about the people being responsible for their own lives? Hard work? Sweat, toil, upward mobility, risk capital? Nope! Any questions on rugged individualism? Nope!
What about the question that should have been asked about dire predictions that “we have 10 years or else?” Where was the question “You know Al Gore, 13 years ago, stated we were doomed in 10 years, why should we now believe your prediction of doom in 10 years?” Nope! Nada!
And then there is “capitalist” Elizabeth Warren…the woman that says she believes in markets “from her head to her toe!” Interesting. A woman that continues to rip corporate America and again ripped corporate America at the debate, not one question about the greatness of corporate America, the wealth of corporate America, the new wonder drugs from drug companies, the new technological advances, the philanthropy, the enabling of upward mobility…nope! Just let her rip away with not one follow up question. Not one question of her, Bernie and a few others wanting to either break up, take over or downright shut down industry…not one question. We would have asked Senator Warren this simple question? “Can you name one major industry that you do not want to take over, break up or shut down?” Think hard now! After all, EDUCATION, ENERGY, HEALTHCARE, INSURANCE, TECHNOLOGY, BANKS, WALL STREET, AUTOS…that’s her list, not ours. Nope…nothing! When she was finally asked about whether she would raise taxes on the middle class…she would not answer. She would not have got away with that if we were doing the asking.
Almost 3 hours of blah blah blah. Almost 3 hours of talking points. Almost 3 hours of not digging deep, no simple and logical follow-ups. Almost 3 hours of boilerplate. Almost 3 hours that gave someone like me, that is looking for someone, anyone, any party to come around and be the candidate of efficient and effective government, balanced budgets, a candidate that understands it is WE THE PEOPLE, not WE THE DC. Looks like that ain’t going to happen and the national media ain’t helping. Let’s just say these candidates were lucky we were not asking the questions. We would have really represented the people.

PRE MARKET STUFF

A couple of themes still playing out.

In the past few days, value has taken over growth. This after a whole year of the opposite. We were sent a study that in the past few days, stocks under $5 were up 20%. When we do our scans, unbelievable moves from stocks that were at new yearly lows. Keep in mind, many have horrible earnings and sales numbers.

Bond yields continue to back up as that final move looked a wee bit climactic. As we write this, the 10 year has backed up from 1.45% to 1.84% in just over a week. Anyone who bought long in the last week or so, not happy campers.

Financials, especially the down and out regionals, are benefiting most from the higher rates as the spread widens. We have to mention JP Morgan is on the verge of breaking out to all time highs, moving out of an almost 2 year trading range. To give you an idea, JP Morgan is up 250% in the past 12 years but:

Santander: -47% BBVA: -61% ING: -66% Credit Suisse: -71% Barclays: -79% Soc Gen: -81% Deutsche Bank: -92%

The SEMICONDUCTORS remain quite strong in the face of crappy earnings and sales but the big bet is that the bottom is in for the cycle. The problem with this is these companies always say the bottom is in. Regardless, our motto is always to watch this group as it continues to lead markets up and down. It is now back near the old highs.

With rates backing up, we think the Fed no longer needs to lower rates by 1/2 point. When the 10 year was under 1.5%, they needed to catch up. No longer. Then again, anything is possible with these easy money dolts.

Speaking of easy money dolts, Draghi, on his way out of the ECB decides to lower rates again and print more money even though rates are already big time negative and even though they have already printed a ton of money. We think it was Einstein who said: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results!” Unfortunately this is going to affect the long term health of the EU as it has done nothing for no one and guarantees a burst bubble down the road. On top of that, they continue to screw their savers.

Speaking of negative rates, we wish the president would lock it up on jawboning the fed. There is a reason why other countries have negative rates. They are basket cases. Yes, with $1 trillion deficits, we are also a basket case but less so. The president needs to be very careful with his words. He railed against Obama and Bernake for their 0% rates and their printing of money. Quite interesting to see the change of stance once you are running for re-election.

Will have our thoughts on the latest debate over the weekend as we have yet to watch most of it. Somehow, we will get through the 3 hours of socialist nonsense.

 

CHANGING OF THE GUARD PART 2

The changing of the guard we have been writing about made itself felt even more yesterday. For almost a year, it was easy to tell you to avoid foreign markets, value, commodities, transports, small caps, mid caps and oils. They are now coming on like gangbusters. A ton of stuff that have been sitting at new yearly lows have jumped. Normally, we would tell you this is not good news but so far, it is only good news as the only area suffering is the high growth names. We have told you they look to be done for now, notwithstanding vicious bounces which we could get at any moment.

Charts have shown growth versus value were at the most extreme levels in ages. This looks to be a narrowing of that extreme.

Overnight, the president changed his mind for the 50th time on tariffs which had futures moving before giving some back. And now, the ECB is going to print more money and buy bonds as well as lower rates. Yes…they are doing this even though rates are negative. So screw the savers and do something that will not help your economy one iota. Maybe you want to think about lowering taxes, lowering burdens and getting the size of government and the hand of government out of the way in order to get things going. Instead…CONTINUE TO DO WHAT HASNT WORKED. Just ask Japan.

PRE MARKET- CHANGING OF THE GUARD

Our main thought on 9/11 is not only to never forget but know there are others that would do the same. It tells you how fantastic our security apparatus is.

What you have just seen in the past 2-3 days is the largest 2-3 days reallocation from momentum to value we have seen in ages. We started to alert to this this past weekend but it has really picked up this week. Many momentum growth names are down 5-15% and even more in the past two days while a ton of stocks on the new yearly low list have seen their stocks soar off the lows. This is a shift long overdue as the chart of growth versus value had gone to extremes to the growth side.

So…we continue to believe:

Bonds have put in a near term top…if not more. The last move in bonds felt somewhat climactic in where we found $18 trillion of bonds yielding negative. The 10 year has backed up from 1.45% to 1.74% in short order. This, more than likely, takes a 1/2 point cut off the table.

Oil prices and oil stocks look to have put in a decent bottom. Remember, this is a commodity that gets moved by geopolitics but for now, looks like money flows are moving into this area. The same goes for commodity-types.

Other areas that were comatose and have now woke up are the small and mid-caps, cyclicals, many foreign markets, transports and very simply, the worst acting stocks in the market (supposed value). We do not know how long this lasts  or how far it goes but suggest this may not be a few day affair.

The big 4 indices remain above the 50 day. This is vital going forward. The SOX remains above the 50 day. This is vital going forward. Because of the back-up in rates, financials have finally woke up as spreads widen. This is also vital for the markets going forward. If anything changes, we will let you know.

Normally, when the leading growth groups get slammed…and the word “slammed” is being nice, it would mean a death knell for the markets overall. But so far, this is just vicious rotation. Pay heed as what worked so well for so long is now biting back.

Lastly, President Trump is out this morning calling for negative rates from the fed as well as more printing of money. This comes from a president that railed against the easy money of the Obama/Bernanke era. You obviously know what we think of this.