No…it is not because the Amway Center is about 1,000 feet from our offices. It is because Florida and certain parts of Florida, namely the areas around central Florida, that may matter most. Here are some very important facts.

Florida is a whopping 29 electoral votes…the largest swing state. Florida has gone for the winner in the last 6 elections, 3 times for a Democrat and 3 times for a Republican. While the average margin of victory over those 6 elections was 2.6%, both President Obama and President Trump won by about 1%. Specifically, President Trump won by only 112,911 votes out of a total of 9,122,861 votes. A switch of just 56,500 votes would have changed the playing field. With a Michigan (16 electoral votes) that the President won by less than 11,000 votes out of more than 4.5 million votes…with a Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) won by less than 23,000 votes out of almost 2.8 million votes…with a Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) won by a little over 44,000 votes out of about 5.9 million votes, Florida is huge.

Hillary Clinton won only 9 counties but she won the biggies.


Clinton 623,006 votes

Trump 333,666 votes


Clinton 546,956 votes

Trump 258,521 votes


Clinton 371,411 votes

Trump 270,762 votes

So why Orlando? First off, expect the President to do a lot of visiting the big 3 as any movement his way would be a huge help.  Orlando is simply the central part of the I-4 corridor. Yes…the nightmare we call I-4 as the “Ultimate I-4” construction continues. When we say nightmare, we mean nightmare. Central meaning it is easy to get to Orlando from Trump-friendly counties like Lake, Polk, Seminole, Volusia and Sumter County (the very friendly The Villages is there). Farther away, even Marion county. Nothing like getting your strong base fired up. But we think there is more to it than just that. It is  not a reach to believe the President is targeting Democratic strongholds of Orange County as well as Osceola county. When we played in tennis tournaments, we used to attack the opponent’s strongest areas. If their strongest ground stroke was the forehand, we knew if we broke down their forehand, the party was over. If we could weaken their strengths, it is much easier to win. We think the President knows that if he can win over large swaths of “enemy territory,” he is a lock to win the state. He is taking  advantage of an economy that is very strong here. It is not just tourism which is monstrously strong. Employment figures are strong with unemployment now under 3%. Total GDP is at its highest ever. Orlando Intl Airport is doing record numbers. With higher taxes being proposed by every Democratic candidate, President Trump can try to sell based on what Candidate Andrew Gillum was going to do if he won the governorship, raise sales taxes. Sales taxes would not be popular here and we can tell you, if the President lost, it would be easier to vote in a Democratic governor next go round. On a side note, it will not just be a speech, the President’s campaign is holding a carnival outside the Amway Center with rides, games, bands and all the trappings. The man does know how to give a good party. As far as voting:


Clinton 329,579 votes

Trump 195,091 votes


Clinton 85,287 votes

Trump 50,252 votes

But there are now over 215,000 registered Republicans in Orange County. In other famous words…GET OUT THE VOTE. On top of that Governor Ron DeSantis got 37% of the vote in Orange County, up from Trump’s 35% in 2016. Momentum! So…yes, method to the madness. This is not the President’s first visit as he has already held multiple rallies in Orlando itself as well as Ocala, Kissimmee, Lakeland, Sanford and Melbourne since his presidency.

Of course, there is still 505 days to the election. The economy can change. Markets can change. After all, no one knows what day the debt and deficits finally shoot the middle finger back at those that created the monster. It is going to be one heck of a ride.



It’s a long day but this BROADCOM (AVGO) news is important. As you know, the SEMIS are the most important group to our work as they continue to lead markets up and down. It used to be the FINANCIALS were first and SEMIS second. No longer. So…we will watch closely. Fundamentally, we have been saying the numbers out of the SEMIS have been suspect but the hope was “the second half!” Well, the second half rebound does not look at hand. Seeing some horrible chart patterns in the group. The group will need to stand up and be defended soon.

As far as the rest of the market, continue to think narrow…but GOLD and GOLD STOCKS opening at or around new yearly highs.

Other stuff:

China industrial production came in under expectations and 17 year lows.

The ECB saying they are very worried about bad loans. Really…hey ECB and Draghi, it’s your easy money and negative rates that do just that…promote bad loans.

German 10 year bund…new record low yielding 0.27%. That’s not a typo. Spain is at an all-time low at 0.50%.




SEMIS and FINANCIALS took brunt yesterday but major indices not going anywhere…and after weak overnight, we walk into an up morning as CHINA reversed early big losses.

Regardless, the Fed is next week. We expect them to lower rates or telegraph the lowering of rates in the next meeting…and that is usually what matters most.

FAANG stocks remain relatively weak but can get going in a nanosecond.

OIL prices spike this morning as a couple ships hit. OIL and OIL STOCKS have been weak.


LULU and RH big gaps to the upside.


Strong day yesterday with some give-back as the Mexico tariff thingy ended. We walk into another gap to the upside this morning as yields back up and money is deployed.

An amazing more than a “V” shaped move back up off of one thing…OUR FED once again crapping in their pants about a correction in the markets and changing their stance from “patience” to “lowering rates.” This after going from “raising rates a few times in 2019” to “having patience.”

Tech…which was a wreck into last Monday…straight up…and we mean straight up.

For those asking. BEYOND MEAT (BYND) got the valuation downgrade from their underwriter this morning. The stock is currently down $18 but valuation was a joke $100 points ago. Remember, price is what someone is willing to pay but eventually…eventually, valuation will matter.

The SEMIS led down and now leading back up. Remember, they have been leading markets up and down forever.

We could say markets are near-term beyond overbought but with the fed next week…


CRM buying DATA…software names that were breaking down last Monday…that ramped on the 2nd Powell, up strong on the news. Fake meat companies soaring on losses…but strong sales. UTX buying RTN. No Mexico tariffs…duh…we told you it would not happen.

Bearish markets used to take time turning…no longer as again, the Fed could not even stand a 7-10% correction before changing their tune. And…the market’s default setting is to just buy it all. It happened in December…and it is happening now.

There is a reason India just lowered rates. There is a reason Australia just lowered rates. There is a reason China just added another $70 billion after adding almost a $trillion to its system. There is a reason Europe just announced they may lower rates even though rates are negative…and also said they could print more money. AND NOW…there is a reason why our Fed cannot even stand a 7-10% correction. The answer: debt and leverage. There is so much debt and leverage in the system that they know what happens if they lose markets. Keep in mind, it is these central banks that enabled all of it and Wall Street that forgot everything about 07-08.

So enjoy. Markets are beyond overbought and frothy in just days off a low.